tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6518999264103251377.post5114999361024035321..comments2023-07-02T04:32:09.689-04:00Comments on Oblong Spheroid: Two mistakesChris Bhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04996455466572610983noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6518999264103251377.post-35133608507854466622009-10-08T01:42:13.180-04:002009-10-08T01:42:13.180-04:00Yeah. I think there's a certain area of the f...Yeah. I think there's a certain area of the field, maybe around the opponent's 40 or so, where it makes sense to routinely go for it on a "reasonable" to-go, like 4th-&-3 or something. Unless your punter is a genius at pinning them, like say Feagles.JimZipCodehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10910763846618963025noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6518999264103251377.post-28448006040018549672009-10-04T10:00:54.153-04:002009-10-04T10:00:54.153-04:00That was the compounding error that I talked about...That was the compounding error that I talked about (3rd and 3 but I knew what you meant). I understand the whole 'the other teams' kicker makes 50 yard figgies like nothing' argument, but Hanson also makes 55 yard figgies like nothing, so pushing the team back 10 yards and giving them a down only sort of pushes Detroit out of field goal range. Gaining 6-7 yards on 3rd and 13 is usually pretty easy and that's all Detroit really needed post penalty. Add in the non-zero chance that they get a first down - which they did - and you just have to force a fourth down decision there.<br /><br />I really think that was a much worse gamble than going for it on 4th and 1 on the 1.<br /><br />Yesterday in the Michigan game UM had 4th and inches at their own 17 and I totally would have supported them going for it. As it went the punter called his own fake (he has the authority and Rodriguez wasn't too upset about it after the game) and got stuffed.<br /><br />There isn't a great deal of difference between giving the opposing team 1st and 10 around midfield or first and 10 inside the 20, certainly not enough of a difference than to count on your offensive line to get a few inches of lean.Patrick Dhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08457532328133529987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6518999264103251377.post-40488346517838321702009-10-04T01:02:53.491-04:002009-10-04T01:02:53.491-04:00Was Zorn's decision to accept the penalty afte...Was Zorn's decision to accept the penalty after the failed 4th-and-3, a mistake?JimZipCodehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10910763846618963025noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6518999264103251377.post-43090291635511607582009-10-03T16:50:05.982-04:002009-10-03T16:50:05.982-04:00Oh we really do think about it differently. Again...Oh we really do think about it differently. Against better opponents you need to gamble more and execute your gambles. Against bad opponents the conservative approach is better.<br /><br />I really don't have any problem with Zorn's decision. The play call was awful, but even so Washington should reasonably expect to get the ball back in good field position. They turned the ball over on the flipping one yard line. Seriously, what's the odds of mounting a scoring drive from your own one, not to mention a drive for a TD? It has to be less than 10%. Maybe less than 2%.Patrick Dhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08457532328133529987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6518999264103251377.post-66562049757480806162009-10-03T16:05:30.173-04:002009-10-03T16:05:30.173-04:00Maybe we're saying the same thing, if I say Wa...Maybe we're saying the same thing, if I say Washington made a "greater" mistake and you say Washington compounded their mistake with play-calling and Baltimore gave themselves the best chance of making their decision work. Your phrasing might be better, in separating out the decision to go for it vs what tactics to use.<br /><br />I will say Baltimore's mistake was less, for these 2 reasons. (1) Baltimore has a better team, and any gamble has better odds when your team is better. Or maybe the correct observation is that the delta between Baltimore and their opponent was greater than the delta in the Redskins game. (2) The reductionist argument that Zorn concluded that his team would get the first down, and he was wrong; while Harbaugh concluded his team would get the first, and he was right.<br /><br />Harbaugh's move still seems like a mistake to me, but less of a gamble than Zorn's. Not only is the Ravens offense better than the Redskins offense (and better relative to their competition); but if the team gets stuffed, the Ravens D is better than the Redskins D, while the Browns have scored like 1 TD in their past 9 games. It was somewhat less risky from every angle. Not sure how much: but somewhat.<br /><br />Was it really a mistake for Washington to accept that penalty? I didn't see that part of the game. Zorn said the Lions were in FG range and he felt he had to push them out. Were they?<br /><br />Disagree with your comment about better opponents. Any mistake is automatically more harmful against a better opponent. There's a smaller chance of getting away with anything, against a better opponent. You are both less likely to convert the down, and more likely to need the 3 pts later.JimZipCodehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10910763846618963025noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6518999264103251377.post-30292236579874658502009-10-03T10:27:44.251-04:002009-10-03T10:27:44.251-04:00I can't buy the argument that Baltimore someho...I can't buy the argument that Baltimore somehow made less of a mistake than Washington. I might buy the argument that Washington's mistake was compounded by the playcall though. The main difference between the two plays is field position. Zorn is correct, teams don't go on 99 yard drives. It really doesn't happen, and as some pundit noted it really Didn't happen, excepting an additional mistake by Washington which you noted.<br /><br />I would say that either of those decisions would have been less harmful against better opponents. You want to get bad opponents down early, extinguish their hope and grind out the win. Oddly this is less important against good opponents since they will be less phased by a three point deficit.<br /><br />Of course if Washington or Baltimore had been playing one of the better teams I would have expected either to kick. Just more backward strategizing in the NFL.Patrick Dhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08457532328133529987noreply@blogger.com