tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-65189992641032513772024-03-14T06:48:14.572-04:00Oblong SpheroidA solid body approaching the figure of a sphere, though not exactly round, having one of its diameters longer than the other. This solid is usually considered as generated by the rotation of an oval plane figure about one of its axes. If that be the longer or transverse axis, the solid so generated is called an oblong Spheroid, sometimes prolate, which resembles an egg [or a football]<br>— <b>C Hutton</b><i> Mathematical and Philosophical Dictionary</i> 1795Chris Bhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04996455466572610983noreply@blogger.comBlogger478125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6518999264103251377.post-9007542363546378392021-09-18T11:47:00.243-04:002021-09-19T13:32:33.380-04:00Lamar Jackson's 4th-quarter struggles greatly exaggeratedOne of the smartest sports fans of my acquaintance emails me after the Ravens loss to the Raiders on Monday Night Football the other night. Late in the email he says this:<br />
<blockquote><i>Lamar also reminds me of Ben Simmons. Both have had obvious struggles when they have to shoot/pass in the 4th Q against good teams.</i></blockquote>
It may not shock you that I have a quibble.<BR>
<span id="fullpost"><BR><p>The comparison is bullshit. The notion that Lamar has trouble passing when the team needs him to – that he struggles compared with other QBs – has never been true, going back to his much-maligned rookie playoff appearance. It's false. It's entirely a creation of "narrative". </p>
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<p>▪ In the 2018 playoff game (when Lamar became the youngest QB in league history to start a playoff game), in the 4th Q against Joey Bosa & Melvin Gordon & Derwin James et al, Lamar threw for 169 yds and 2 TDs for a passer rating of 116.5. Had the ball with a chance to win at the end.</p>
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<p>▪ The other game they Lamar lost as a starter in 2018 was at KC. Lamar had a passer rating of 109 in the 4th Q & OT combined, with one TD. <br />One of the incompletions was a huge bomb right into the hands of WR Chris Moore in the end zone for the potential game-winner in OT. Moore dropped it (he was also interfered with). Lamar was knocked out of the game late in OT – RG3 mopped up the loss.</p>
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<p>▪ In the 2019 playoff game against the Titans, in the 4th Q Lamar threw for 150 yds and a TD while his teammates dropped 7 passes.</p>
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<p>Not a lot of examples of reg-season games from 2019 where Lamar "had to shoot/pass in the 4th Q", but there are these two:</p>
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▪ In the 2019 reg season game they lost vs the Chiefs, in the 4th Q Lamar threw for 150 yds.<br />
▪ In the 2019 reg season game they lost to the Brownies (so, not a good team), in the 4th Q Lamar threw for 170 yds with 2 TDs.<BR>
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<p>In 2020 I think Lamar was somewhat washed after covid. His timing looked off to me, and I think they were managing his practice snaps. But obviously Lamar looked ok on Monday Night Football when he had to pass in the 4th Q against the Brownies (a fairly good team this time). In the 4th – outside of the trip to the bathroom – Lamar completed 87% with 11.8 yards-per and the TD for a passer rating of 155.2.</p>
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<p>▪ In the 2020 playoff game in Buffalo:</p>
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<p><i>Josh Allen</i> had 5.6 yards-per-attempt for about 200 passing yards, total. Allen had the kind of game critics rip Lamar for having. Conditions were brutal: the wind interfered with Josh Allen's and Lamar's passes. And Justin mothafucken Tucker missed two FGs! That seriously should be all you need to know. MVP candidate Josh Allen led his team to 10 points of offense. Lamar had a better yards-per-attempt than Josh Allen, but he was running for his life behind awful pass pro, and eventually got knocked out of the game chasing a bad snap.</p>
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<p>That loss to Buffalo was used as confirmation of a lot of priors. If you already "knew" that Lamar can't throw when he needs to against a good team, then that game proved it. But Josh Allen also couldn't throw thru the wind that day. *AND* Justin Tucker couldn't kick. Justin Tucker! <br />
(Also the Bills kicker, who I've never heard of, missed two FGs too.) <br />
The wind inhibited every scoring unit on the field that day. Not everything has to be a referendum on whether Lamar can play the position. A lot of the things that happen with Lamar, happen with other QBs too.</p>
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<p>If you look over the list above it may strike you that I doth protest too much; missing the forest for the trees. That I'm cherry-picking a few random examples, isolated instances where Lamar had decent Q4 stats in one category or another. That may seem like a poor way to make a logical argument. The thing is, that list above represents <i>most</i> of the times Lamar & the Ravens have trailed in the 4th quarter! Lamar's win% as a starter is .789; the Ravens have led the league in scoring across the two seasons Lamar has been the full-time starter. There have been damn few times the Ravens have even been in that 4th-quarter-trailing situation. Ths list isn't <i>cherry-picked</i>, it's nearly exhaustive. (But see the next section.) </p>
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<p>This narrative that Lamar struggles to pass in the 4th quarter when his team needs him to, is absolutely false. It's a fabrication; a misrepresentation. What has happened is that the Ravens have struggled to <i>protect</i> Lamar in the pocket, esp in playoff games (2018 and 2020). That has had exactly the effect on the quarterback play as it always does: same thing we saw this past Super Bowl when the Bucs beat Mahomes; or back in 2007 when the Giants beat the Imperfect Pats in the Super Bowl; or WAY back when the '85 Bears clobbered the league. Batter the QB and the passing game falters.</p>
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<p>There *ARE* things to be worried about with Lamar. If you want to be an informed Lamar-watcher, here's what to look for.</p>
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<p>Last season, it looked to me like the pass-pro troubles got into Lamar's head early. The first two opponents (Brownies & Texans) were bad teams with good pass rushes – the Brownies brought a lot of ressure, though they didn't quite get there; Houston sacked him 4 times. Lamar stopped trusting the pocket; and maybe he felt some pressure to justify the MVP award. You could almost see a thought balloon over his head, "This is supposed to be easy!" I think he started pressing real hard.</p>
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<p> Approximately games 3 thru 7, Lamar looked like he was trying to make a 10-pt play every snap. Whatever the opposite is of calm efficient football, that's what Lamar was playing. He would skip easy completions, instead looking for big plays; and he would run himself into trouble. His mechanics went to absolute shit. His dropbacks were sloppy; his throwing stance was all over the place. He dirted one against the Eagles in week 6 that was a truly embarassing throw to a wide-open guys. The whole production was painful to watch. They still won three of those games, but Lamar looked <i>bad</i>.</p>
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<p>Lamar finally played a good, efficiently-quarterbacked game against Indy in November. Maybe he got his head on straight? Then they went to New England and played in a monsoon. Posted a 99 passer rating, which was pretty good for the conditions. And then Lamar got covid. An eventful season.</p>
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<p>At the deepest depths of his run of bad play, he would look at an open receiver, then double-check or triple-check before finally throwing. Hesitate. You'd see receivers slow in the window, have to wait for the ball. On one pass, Lamar threw so late on a deep ball to Hollywood Brown, that Brown couldn't catch it without going out the back of the end zone. In 2019, Lamar had been awesome in the "quick game"; decisive and effective. He lost that in 2020. Early, it looked like he didn't trust the pocket enough to settle and throw; middle, it looked like he didn't trust his eyes; late, he was post-covid and just looked overall out of sync. </p>
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<p>So – don't get distracted by any nonsense about Lamar can't read defenses or is inaccurate or can't throw deep or to the sideline or whatever. None of that has ever been true.<br />
(Post-covid, when he was suffering arm cramps etc, some of it may have been true. But it's not his normal state.)<br />
Instead, look for hints that Lamar is trying to do it all himself. That he doesn't trust his pass-pro, that he doesn't trust his receivers, etc. He starts falling back on Hero Ball.</p>
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<p>There were hints on Monday night that it might be happening. That rushing fumble might have been an occasion of trying to do too much. Also there were three or four passes where Lamar double-clutched. Not a pump fake: he started to throw and then changed his mind. Why? Without All-22, can't tell if that was a reasonable & logical reaction to something the defense did, or if Lamar was starting to hesitate again.</p>
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<p>There were also positive signs for the Ravens passing offense. The stats look like the Raiders D worked hard to take away Mark Andrews. Passes to TEs netted just 3.3 yards per target. Maybe that explains the double-clutching? Lamar spotting an unexpected double-team, or an underneath LB or something? But on the positive side, on throws to WRs Monday, Lamar went 11 of 16 (69%) for 171 yards (10.7 yards-per) and a TD, which would give a passer rating of 124.7. Even better if you look at just the top 2 guys, Watkins & Hollywood. Lamar was a perfect 6 for 6 to Hollywood Brown. Over the offseason the Ravens have talked about the necessity for being about to attack other areas of the field when teams clog the middle against them. The game 1 WR stats might be an indicator that they're doing that successfully? Or maybe it's just a fluke.</p>
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<p>Plays like THIS, while awesome, will not tell you if Lamar is playing well:<br />
</p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><span><p style="text-align: left;"><a href="https://mobile.twitter.com/BaldyNFL/status/1437923008388153349" target="_blank">https://mobile.twitter.com/BaldyNFL/status/1437923008388153349</a></p></span></blockquote><p>That's an Aaron Rodgers -esque play; but honestly Lamar can make plays like that in his sleep. He basically turns into Aaron Rodgers after 4 secs in the pocket. But, *having* to make plays like that all the time is evidence of a problem: either pass-pro or Lamar not throwing on time. You'll know Lamar is sharp when he's getting rid of the ball on 3- and 5-step drops, on-time (maybe with one hitch), for completions. Not necessarily every play, but often enough to keep the defense off-balance.</p>
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<p>Last year (2020) Lamar played the worst game of his career at home against the Chiefs. Brutal, ugly, horrible game. Yards-per-attempt below 3.5! Eeyugh. </p>
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<p>Puttting out a "Lamar has always played great in the 4th quarter!" post the weekend of their rematch against the Chiefs is a little bit of an exposed position:</p>
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li> The Chiefs back-7 defenders, Tyrann Mathieu & co, have shown they know what they're doing against Lamar.</li>
<li>Frank Clark is expected back for this game, against a Ravens OL that was already shaky.</li>
<li>Ravens All-Pro LT Ronnie Stanley is expected to miss the game! Complications with his ankle.</li>
<li>The chances of Lamar falling prey to the temptations of Hero Ball, with Mahomes on the other sideline, are alarmingly high.</li>
</ul><BR>
<p>The Ravens could very easily get blown off the field. </p>
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<p>But I wanted to be on record before the game, about what we're actually seeing when the Ravens win or when they lose; what's actually happening when Lamar plays well or when he doesn't. If Chris Jones & Frank Clark are crashing thru the Ravens pass-pro with ease and living in the backfield – if Lamar is getting about 1.1 seconds to throw – then let's acknowledge that's happening. Lamar is subject to the same hits and pressures as other QBs are.</p>
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JimZipCodehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10910763846618963025noreply@blogger.com0Baltimore, MD, USA39.2903848 -76.612189310.980150963821153 -111.7684393 67.600618636178837 -41.4559393tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6518999264103251377.post-46285757768744400652021-08-11T20:26:00.100-04:002021-08-20T20:29:42.122-04:00Do we KNOW that John Harbaugh is a good coach?The commentariat at Football Outsiders is a knowledgeable and interesting set of cats. Excellent discussion in the comments on their articles. One guy whom I respect comments there frequently, under the handle "theslothook". He posted <a href="https://www.footballoutsiders.com/walkthrough/2021/josh-allens-incredible-inevitable-contract#comment-828684" target="_blank">this</a>, as part of a wide-ranging discussion after Josh Allen's contract extension was announced:
<blockquote><i>Ill ask you as a Ravens fan, are we so certain we KNOW that John Harbaugh is a good coach? On the face of it, it looks absurd but if you peek at his predecessor, you see almost the same kinds of teams Harbaugh was fielding prior to Lamar.</i> <i><br />Since the begining of the cosmos until very recently, the Ravens have had the same combination of <br />1) Great Defense, <br />2) Great Special Teams, <br />3) Sometimes great run game <br />4) Cover your eyes awful passing games.</i> <i><br />And its instructive to see under Harbaugh's watch, the passing game go from ok to horrible and stay that way. I am genuinely curious if Ravens fans can look at this and wonder, does any of this go beyond the coach? Because it sure does for me.</i></blockquote><p>
As you might imagine my reply is way, way, WAY too long to be appropriate for a comment thread. I put it here instead – maybe he'll read it. 🙂 </p><br />
<a name='more'></a><span id="fullpost"><p> </p><p> </p><hr /> <p></p><br /><blockquote><i>are we so certain we KNOW...?</i></blockquote>
So, "know" and "certainty" are question-begging words to use in this context. If you're going to ask for a standard of terms of statistical certainty & p-values and stuff, I have to admit that we don't "know" with "certainty" that Harbs is a "good" coach. I think from an exclude-the-null-hypothesis standpoint, we don't KNOW that Belichick is a head coach. We have to use much lower standards for "certainty" and "knowing" than the statistical/scientific fields: small samples and no control group etc. <p></p><br /><br /><p>I'm sure you know all this, but the tone of your question makes me think it's a good idea to go back and touch second. <br /><br />Another thing I want to point out is, I think I detect an assumption in your line of questioning, that "good coach" = "great offensive tactician". Like the only model for the "good coach" is the, uh, the Bill Walsh / Sean Payton / Sean McVay model. (Andy Reid, Kyle Shanahan.) But that's bullshit. There have been plenty of good & successful NFL head coaches who fit the "defense, toughness & execution" model, like Bill Parcells & Bill Cowher & Tony Dungy. <br /><br /></p><p></p><hr /><br /><p></p><p> There's a "What even is coaching, anyway?" subtext here. We as fans tend to speak as if coaching *IS* Xs-&-Os tactics. But that isn't true. I follow a basketball coach named Brian McCormick, his twitter & other writings – been following him since I coached my stepdaughter's 7th-grade basketball team a decade or so ago. One of the big things to emerge is that Xs-&-Os and game-day are very, very much the tip of the iceberg when it comes to "coaching". When we look at the NFL, by the time game one rolls around in Sept, coaches will have been working with players for months. Offseason lifting program, rookie minicamp, OTAs, mandatory minicamp, training camp. That stuff carries enormous cumulative weight. <br /><br />Here's something I stumbled upon, from the <a href="http://www.espn.com/espnradio/play?id=28581479" target="_blank">Apple Daily podcast with Seth Wickersham</a>. On Kyle Shanahan:
</p><blockquote>"Kyle is a <i>coach</i>. Y'know: he loves being alone in his office, looking at film, trying to unlock any weakness in the defense."</blockquote><p>
So first of all, that's exactly how I imagine Kyle Shanahan. Obsessed with Xs-&-Os, and finding tendencies and all that. But what's interesting is: <br />(1) That first statement is exactly what I'd say about John Harbaugh: "Harbs is a <i>coach</i>." Son of a coach, brother of a coach, a true lifer, eats/breathes/sleeps everything about coaching. <br />(2) But if I had to guess, I'd guess that what Harbaugh loves is to be ON THE FIELD with his team at practice. I'm sure Harbs does the requisite other work, grinds the necessary film – obvsly if you don't have an appetite for tactics or scheme, you won't succeeed at all – but I bet on-the-field is where he comes alive.<br /></p><p></p><p><br />Back in 2013, Kevin Van Valkenburg did a piece documenting Harbaugh's week. It's interesting reading:
</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><a href="https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/10012376/baltimore-ravens-head-coach-john-harbaugh-clocks-long-hours-prep-game-day-espn-magazine" target="_blank">https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/10012376/baltimore-ravens-head-coach-john-harbaugh-clocks-long-hours-prep-game-day-espn-magazine</a></li></ul><p>Ton of meetings; lots of stakeholders to touch base with. What <i>percentage</i> of what he's doing is Xs-&-Os tactics? Pretty low, right? Now, he can do that because he has a full-time OC and DC; does not have the play-calling responsibilities that say Kyle Shanahan or Sean Payton have. But which part of what Harbs is doing is "extraneous"? Turning the question around, if your head coach is a whiz-kid offensive genius like K Shanahan or Payton, designing the game plan and calling the plays: then which things that Harbaugh does is your head coach neglecting? </p><br /><br /><p>Over the years I have come to the position that – well, say there are two coaches. Coach A is what I'll call a caricature of Kyle Shanahan before he got the Niners job and showed us he was very well rounded: a whiz-kid offensive mind, young, a friggin GENIUS at offensive tactics, but NOT good at managing a staff and designing an offseason program and putting together a spec teams unit and relating to players etc. There's probably somebody among the new-wave of hot young coaches that've been hired recently who could serve as the template for this thought experiment: Zac Taylor, Kilff Kingsbury, Matt LaFleur. Coach B is a caricature of, I dunno, someone along the Vic Fangio / John Fox lines: an old-school fuddy-duddy who excels at managing his staff and getting guys into the weight room and instilling a "culture" blah-blah-blah, but couldn't diagram a "mesh" spread play to save his life. He's the complement of Coach A: has all the strengths Coach A lacks, but none of what Coach A actually does have. </p><br /><br /><p>Neither of these imaginary crippled coaches is going to be awesome. But I have come to the position that, while Coach A might have one good year, his teams will quickly fall apart. Coach B will be slow & steady, and will ultimately have more "staying power", more long-term success, even if he never reaches the greatest heights. Maybe he maxes out at 9-7; but his teams will consistently plug along at "pretty good". </p><br /><br /><p>Owners and fan bases get impatient with that, and those coaches get fired, but I think that tends to be a mistake. Those things that Coach B are attending to are <i>important</i>. I think their cumulative weight makes them MORE important than the X&O tactical stuff. But that's not where we focus, when we talk about "coaching". </p><br /><br /><p></p><hr /><p></p><br /><p>
</p><blockquote><i>its instructive to see under Harbaugh's watch, the passing game go from ok to horrible and stay that way.</i></blockquote>
I reject the premise. <br /><br /><p>For the Harbaugh era *before* Lamar became the full time starter (so from Flacco's rookie season in 2008 thru Lamar's rookie season in 2018), over those 11 seasons the Ravens median rankings are: </p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>offensive DVOA: 13th</li><li>passing DVOA: 16th <br /></li><li>points-scored: 12th <br /></li><li>passer rating: 16th</li></ul><p>None of that is "horrible". Their <i>lowest</i> finish in passing DVOA was 27th: two times, the last two years leading up to them drafting Lamar. Seven of the eleven seasons were 18th or better: nothing Drew Brees would be especially proud of, but not close to "horrible" either. The two seasons Lamar has been the full-time starter, they – well, in 2019 they were 1st across-the-board (2nd in passer rating). Last year, the "down" year, they were:
<br /></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>11th in offense DVOA
</li><li>17th in pass DVOA</li><li>
7th in points-scored
</li><li>14th in passer rating
</li></ul><p>That's not league-leading or anything; but obviously it's nowhere near "horrible" either. The Ravens have been a LOW VOLUME passing team with Lamar. But they have absolutely *not* been a horribly inefficient/unproductive passing offense with Lamar. Their red-zone and third-down numbers are good. It's just wrong to imply that they've been comparable with, say, the Jets or Redskins or whoever. <br /><br /></p><hr /><p></p><br /><blockquote><i>if you peek at his predecessor, you see almost the same kinds of teams Harbaugh was fielding prior to Lamar.
Since the begining of the cosmos until very recently, the Ravens have had the same combination of
<br />1) Great Defense
<br />2) Great Special Teams
<br />3) Sometimes great run game
<br />4) [not league leading] passing games.
<br />...does any of this go beyond the coach? Because it sure does for me.</i></blockquote><p>
This is fairly well understood in Baltimore. Ozzie Newsome was GM 1996 to 2018, and he had a distinctive approach to team-building. For one thing Ozzie completely bought in to the Bill Walsh dictum that offenses can compensate for lack of talent with initiative (they know where the play is going) & execution & scheme; but defenses can NOT. On defense there is no substitute for <i>talent</i>. <br /><br />Ozzie played for Bear Bryant and entered the NFL in 1978. He had old-school ideas of positional importance, that John Madden & Joe Gibbs would have fully endorsed. QB, LT, and CB are the three most important positions on the field. Build the lines. If you studied the rosters of Super Bowl teams from the 70s to the early 00s, the least-common position to find a Pro Bowler was – well, it was spec-teamer and FB – but after that, it was WR. Super Bowl teams most commonly had Pro Bowlers on the OL and in the secondary; least commonly had Pro Bowlers at WR. Which leads to the conclusion that great <i>individual</i> WRs are not that important to a championship team; most champs win with a WR-by-committee approach (including some of the Patriots championship teams). Modern analytics has come to a different conclusion about WR value, and maybe that's right, but Ozzie operated under another theory. <br /><br />Ozzie was also the most hard-core value investor this side of Warren Buffett. Ozzie refused to "overdraft" a player. If a given pick was driven by need, Ozzie would trade down until the need intersected with the value of the pick. The most characteristic Ozzie move in the first round was to catch a falling good player. Offensive players tended to be "over-valued" in free agency and the draft, so Ozzie tended to load up where the value was. Year after year in interviews he would repeat to reporters the mantra "right player, right price." He also was disciplined about letting players leave, under an 80/20 rule: if a young guy on the roster could give you 80% the production of a departing veteran, for 20% of the price, then sayonara veteran. <br /><br />Ozzie was cheap. <br /><br />But! He would pay home-grown Pro Bowlers. The flip side of the let-players-go philisophy was, if you earned a contract, you got it. This did lead to some albatross contracts (Joe Flacco & Ray Rice), but generally he juggled expensive players under the cap very well (Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs). <br /><br />For all his success, Ozzie never drafted a Pro Bowl wide receiver. It's interesting, bc he played WR in college and made the HOF as a receiving TE; but he didn't "see" that position effectively as an evaluator. His first-rd WRs were Travis Taylor, Mark Clayton (2 picks <i>ahead</i> of <b>Aaron</b> motherfucken <b>Rodgers</b>!!!) and Breshad Perriman. 4th-rounder Brandon Stokley once had a thousand-yard season as Peyton Manning's #3 WR in Indy. 2nd-rounder Torrey Smith had an 1100-yd season once (for the Ravens!); also was 2nd leading receiver for the 2012 SB team, and later a valuable contributor to Philly's 2017 SB team. Those represent Ozzie's biggest successes at receiver. Also Darren Waller was an Ozzie draftee.<br />(Ozzie sure as shit knew a linebacker when he saw one, though.) <br /><br />You can see how the cumulative effect of these roster, uh, biases would <i>tend to</i> lead to a squad better prepared to win games 17-13, than to lose games 31-35. Welcome to Ravens football. Brian Billick chafed at it sometimes, and bitched about critics who didn't understand the "profile" the Ravens needed to play with. Harbaugh seemed to embrace it more – he joined an organization that had already won a SB – but also has been more effective (flexible, creative) in working in & around it. <br /><br />It's also interesting to note that, though both of their 21st century HCs turned out to be "leader types" rather than "offensive genius" types, the Ravens <i>tried</i> to hire offensive geniuses both times. Billick's resume was as offensive genius; but <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Competitive-Leadership-Twelve-Principles-Success/dp/1892049503" target="_blank">his first book</a> was a leadership book. Their first choice to replace Billick was Jason Garrett! Garrett turned down the job to say on as the OC in Dallas, so the Ravens went with their second choice, Harbaugh. It would be an interesting alternate-history experiment, to visit the timeline where the Ravens fired Billick after going 6-10 in 2005, and hired Sean Payton. Would Payton & Ozzie have butted heads over draft prioritiesm and failed to work together productively? Or would their strengths have perfectly complemented each other, and combined for them to take over the league? <br /><br />Having suggested above that Ozzie crippled the Ravens passing offense, I want to point out that it looks like Ozzie's team-building philosophies were <i>right</i>; or at least, effective. In the 21st century, the Ravens have the 5th-best regular-season record in the NFL. The other members of the top 6 all have featured HOF QBs for most of that period: Brady, Roethlisberger, Favre/Rodgers, Peyton M, Brees. To win that consistently WITHOUT a HOF QB, an organization has to be doing a lot of stuff right. <br /><br />Ozzie stepped down after 2018 (and drafting Lamar!). His replacement Eric DeCosta seems to have a different theory of team-building. I've heard him say in interviews (from back when he was Ozzie's assistant) that he thinks, in the modern NFL, an offense needs mismatch threats, players that the defense has trouble matching up with. Those players could come in multiple sizes/shapes, from Gronk to Tyreek Hill; but a good offense must have <i>some</i> players that the defense has trouble accounting for. <br /><br />He's put his money where his mouth is. In just three drafts, he's already spent a TON of capital on WRs: two 1sts, two 3rds, a 4th and a 6th. One overt goal seems to be putting a lot of speed around Lamar, to punish defenses. Marquise Brown is stupid-quick. Miles Boykin is a 99th %ile athlete for the position. Devin Duvernay ran a 4.39 at the Combine. Rashod Bateman ran 4.4 with a 3-cone time under 7 secs. Tylan Wallace "merely" ran 4.5 in the forty, but aso was under 7 secs in the Three Cone. James Proche is the worst athlete of the draftees; he was 9th in in the league in yards-per-punt-return last season, and seems to be a technician / possession guy who catches everything. These investments haven't paid off yet; but WRs usually take a bit of time to develop. Anyway, it's a huge about-face in philosophy from Ozzie. <br /><br />(BTW, DeCosta has also shown a very different tolerance for <i>risk</i> in the draft, from Ozzie. Ozzie tended to be risk-averse in the draft, esp in the first round (with some exceptions, like picking Jamal Lewis coming off knee surgery). DeCosta seems to DEVOUR risk in the first round. Marquise Brown rehabbing a Lisfranc injury. Patrick Queen with not even one full season as a college starter and only 20 yrs old on draft day. Odafe Oweh with zero sacks his final year in college. These are not "conservative", prudent draft picks. These are moon shots for upside. Not the same ol' Ravens front office.) <br /><br /></p><hr /> <br />For a lot of Ravens fans, Harbs is a game manager / CEO who does nothing in particular to help the team win. In this view, Harbs rode the coattails of Ray Lewis & Ed Reed to the Super Bowl title, and hasn't done shit since they left. He's a joke. <br /><br />For those fans I want to point out that, since Ray & Ed left the Ravens after the 2012 season, Harbs has gone: <p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>75-53 (.586) with 2 div titles and 4 playoff appearances in 8 seasons <br /></li></ul><p>For reference:</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Bill Parcells' career win pct is .569 with playoff appearances in 53% of his coaching seasons. </li><li>Chuck Noll's career win pct is .566 with playoff appearances in 52% of his seasons. </li><li>Marv Levy's career win pct is .561, playoffs 47% of seasons<br /></li><li>Jimmy Johnson's career win pct is .556 </li><li>Tom Flores career win pct is .527 </li><li>Hank Stram's career win pct is .574 (a little over half of that in the AFL) </li></ul><p>Obviously this is not apples to apples. Those guys above are not in the Hall for their career win pct: they have multiple titles to their names. Parcells took on multiple rebuilding jobs; Jimmy Johnson & Tom Flores also took on a second, difficult challenge. But I *am* saying, the idea that Harbs has done POORLY post- Ray & Ed, is bullshit. <br /><br /></p><hr /> <br />Concidentally, this stuff on Wins Above Replacement came out recently:<p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><a href="https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-head-coach-wins-above-replacement-new-coaches-perform" target="_blank">https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-head-coach-wins-above-replacement-new-coaches-perform</a> </li></ul><p>I can't read it, don't have a PFF sub, but Harbs is pretty prominent in the free part. PFF's <a href="https://www.pff.com/analyst/tej-seth" target="_blank">Tej Seth</a>
followed up with some tweets about this stuff as it relates to Harbaugh: </p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><a href="https://twitter.com/tejfbanalytics/status/1422550543055130633" target="_blank">https://twitter.com/tejfbanalytics/status/1422550543055130633</a> </li><li><a href="https://twitter.com/tejfbanalytics/status/1424070904049512450" target="_blank">https://twitter.com/tejfbanalytics/status/1424070904049512450</a></li><li><a href="https://twitter.com/tejfbanalytics/status/1423627218639544323" target="_blank">https://twitter.com/tejfbanalytics/status/1423627218639544323</a></li></ul><p>Parentheticaly, I don't agree with Tej Seth that Harbs already has HOF credentials. I did some work last year on trying to replicate PFR's Hall Of Fame Monitor, but for coaches. Develop a scoring model that is somewhat predicitive of how the Hall voters will treat coaches. That's hard; and you have to ignore Belichick, because he destroys everything. (Shula & Halas also are model-breakers.) Harbs' resume is light compared to HOF norms for a coach. One factor is that he has fewer division titles than his other stats would suggest he "should": the constant competition with the Steelers & Tomlin depresses that total. <br /><br />But if Harbs ever wins another SB, that changes the discussion. He'd be one of a very small number of coaches ever to build champs around multiple QBs. I don't have that factored into my model, but I think it would be major for the Hall voters. Also Harbs can rack up more division titles and winning seasons; those were the biggest difference between his resume and Andy Reid's last year (before Reid went to another SB). One hypothetical HOF track for Harbaugh: say he gets 6 more winning seasons, with 3 more division titles and one more Super Bowl appearance, losing. I estimate that would push his overall resume up to Marv Levy / Bill Cowher territory. Those aren't implausible targets for Harbaugh at all. Seasons like that would also give Harbs other boosts in my model: a couple of 2-1 playoff runs to the conf title game, even losing there, would bump up Harbs' playoff win% over .600. Another great regular season like 2019 would also give him some bonuses. <br /><br />Harbs also has a solid shot at 200 wins. Only 8 coaches in NFL history have hit that number, but that group could swell in the next decade. Tomlin, Pete Carroll & Sean Payton are all at about 145. Tomlin is the youngest of those three – absurdly young, he's not even 50 yet! – and with an organization famed for stability, so I might give him the best odds of eventually hitting that number. Although I think Payton is probably the better coach and certainly the better developer of QBs. Harbaugh started just after those two, and he's right behind them in career wins: he needs 71 to hit 200 on his career. He's averaged 9.9 wins per year so far. Seven years at 10-wins-per seems very achievable, if Lamar stays healthy. Harbs turns 59 next month; I don't know how far into his 60s he will want to work, but he seems to have a huge appetite for football. His daughter just started college, so there's not a "spend time with the grandkids" motive yet. No health scares (knock wood); the only obvious concession to age so far is that Harbs has started to use glasses. <br /><br />The 200 wins mark has not been a magic Hall pass all by itself. Marty Schottenheimer has 200 and isn't in. Dan Reeves has 190, Chuck Knox 186. The Hall voters haven't particularly treasured <i>longevity</i> in a coach. But also none of those coaches have a championship. Andy Reid is the only coach in the 200 club with only one championship; but obviously Reid has an excellent chance to get more rings. If Tomlin & Payton & Harbs all hit 200, it'll be interesting to see how the Hall voters treat them. 200 career wins <i>with</i> a championship might prove to be too solid a combo to keep out.<br /><br />Point being, I disagree that Harbs <i>already</i> has Hall credentials, but I *do* think he has good Hall <i>chances</i>. <br /><br /></p><hr /> <br />So then where is Harbs weak? I think it is instructive to look at three Ravens losses, to illustrate when Harbs gets outcoached: <p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Ravens @ Pats, 2014 playoffs </li><li>Saints @ Ravens, 2018 </li><li>Chiefs @ Ravens, 2019 </li></ul><p>Each was a very competitive game, but the opposing coach sprung a surprise tactic to break their offense out of doldrums and get key scores that led to a win. <br /><br />— In the Pats playoff game, Ravens twice took 2-TD leads, and they were doing a decent job of holding Brady & co in check. But Brady found a weak link in the Ravens secondary, Rashaan Melvin, and exploited him relentlessly. And then – here's what the game's remembered for – the Pats dug deep into their arsenal and produced the eligible/ineligible stuff, which the Ravens defenders were too "well coached" (robotic) to adjust for, and they got key TDs out of it. This was still a one-score game at the 2-min warning, Ravens driving, but Flacco threw a clinching INT for the 35-31 final. <br /><br />— In the Saints game, some Saints beat reporter wrote later that Sean Payton prepared super extensively for it. He thought the challenge of winning IN Baltimore was formidable, and he came up with some wrinkles specifically for the game. One of the wrinkles was, the Saints went for it on 4th-down 3 or 4 times on the OPENING DRIVE. On the day they converted 4 times on 4th down. The final margin was a single point: Justin Tucker missed a PAT with 24 secs left. <br />(The look on his face – !) <br /><br />— In the Chiefs game, Ravens were doing a good job of holding down the Chiefs thru 1. Then the Chiefs made some kind of adjustment, and exploded in Q2 for 3 TDs and a FG. Ravens re-adjusted, and were able to fight back in the game. The final score was 33-28: a 5-pt margin in a game where the Ravens missed three 2-pt conversions. <br /><br />This is the club that Harbs <i>doesn't</i> have in his bag. Offensive wrinkles for a single opponent / in-game adjustment that breaks things open for the offense to get key scores. <br /><br />Related, sometimes there's an issue of offensive "urgency" right from the opening gun. For this I want to mention a 4th game, Ravens @ Pats from this past season. That game, the weather forecast called for a big storm to sweep in around halftime, basically a monsoon. The Pats coaching staff included that in their game planning: they threw out all the stops in the first half (trick plays, 4th-down tries etc) to take the lead into halftime. The Ravens seemed to play a somewhat casual first half on offense; they looked confident that their normal stuff would eventually get untracked and be enough to score. Maybe under normal circumstances it would have. But the monsoon *DID* sweep in at halftime; the second half was miserable, with poor visibility, bad snaps, etc. Moving the ball was difficult; and the Ravens offense never really got on track. The Pats staff had planned for the situation better than the Ravens had. <br /><br />Probably there's no shame in getting out-tacticked by Belichick or Payton or Reid. All this stuff sounds like a reasonable argument that Harbs is good, but a little behind those guys, and that's utterly plausible. <br /><br />BUT! <br /><br />What's interesting to me is, Harbaugh *does* pull out tactical wrinkles on his opponents, to break open a tough game: but he does it on spec teams! Against the Redskins this past season, he had punter Sam Koch run a fake, passing to Miles Boykin for the first down.
<br />(Koch is the Ravens all-time best passer: career 7 of 7 for 82 yds [11.7 yds-per], for a passer rating of 115.5.) <br />In the Super Bowl Harbs ran a fake FG . That play didn't convert for a first down; but the Niners were so backed up that when they punted, the Ravens got great field position and scored the TD on the next drive. The attempt "worked" even without the first down conversion; the second half of the argument that coaches should go for it more often on 4th down. Also Harbs took the intentional safety on game-ending punt to clinch the SB. Against the Chiefs last year, got a KR TD to bring the margin back to a one-score game, when the offense was flailing. <br /><br />The in-game tactical tricks to help the team out at critical moments are there; it's just that they're not where we as fans are conditioned to expect them (on offense). <br /><br />In the playoff loss to the Pats mentioned above, Pats attempted to kneel out the clock, but Harbs did something clever with his timeouts (I don't remember what) to save a little bit of time at the end, thus creating two scoring chances. The chances were low-probability, but they weren't zero either: Pats had to punt to Jacoby Jones, and then Flacco got a Hail Mary shot from midfield. Again, not high-probability chances, but nothing the opposing team could take for granted either. Harbs was extracting extra (though small) winning chances for his team. <br /><br />Philosophically, Harbs (esp with Greg Roman) reminds me a little of Joe Gibbs. Gibbs was hired as an "offensive genius" type of HC; but he coached the whole team, and for a passing guru in the age of Joe Montana & Dan Marino, he emphasized the run an awful lot. He wasn't the type to break out a fancy X-&-O innovation or trick for one particular matchup; his teams were just better prepared and more sound than yours. Harbs wins in a similar way.
<br />(See Ravens over Pats, 2009 Wild Card) <br /><br /> </p><hr />
<b> </b> <br />Random Harbs odds & ends:<br /><b> <br /></b><p></p><p>For me, one of Harbaugh's best coaching jobs came in the catastrophic 2015 season, when the Ravens lost Suggs and Flacco and a cast of thousands, and finished 5-11. That team was outmanned and far from contention; and they played their <i>asses off</i> all the way to the end of the season. That year won't be part of any HOF case for Harbs, but it was impressive in its own way. <br /><br />Another interesting thing about Harbaugh is that he evolves more than I'm used to seeing a HC evolve. He started out as a fairly old-school coach; his adoption of such analytics concepts as 4th-down aggressiveness is pretty thoroughly reported. He also showed some chops in two-way communication with the famous "mutiny" incident from the Super Bowl season. The way the Ravens have incorporated more college concepts into their offense, with Lamar Jackson, has some similarity to the way Andy Reid started to incorporate more college stuff after he arrived in Kansas City. It's common for coaches to preach about constantly striving to get better; but that shit is usually for the players. Harbs seems to apply it for himself too. He has over the years added more tools to his repertoire. Not in a dramatic transformation way, but in a slow & steady kind of way. He is literally a better coach 2018-20 than he was 2008-10. Learns & grows (some). <br /><br />Harbs has been heavily involved in the competition committee. One thing that came from the Ravens staff is a new standard for interpreting "what is a catch", that seems to be more sensible & helpful for refs, and more intuitive for fans. There was a game last season where Harbs got an overturn from the refs on something initially ruled incomplete, based entirely on his deep understanding of the new catch standard and the language to use with the refs. <br /><br />Three QBs have been drafted under Harbs and developed to become "playoff QBs": Flacco, Lamar and Tyrod Taylor. That might seem a random & questionable "credential": Harbs record as a QB whisperer certainly isn't Bill Walsh's. But compare with Harbs' peer Mike Tomlin: Tomlin's number is zero. Tomlin inherited Big Ben from Bill Cowher, and is still using him to win games. <br /><br /></p><hr /> <p></p><br /><blockquote><i>Ill ask you as a Ravens fan, are we so certain we KNOW that John Harbaugh is a good coach?</i></blockquote><p>
Yeah, we're pretty damn certain that Harbaugh is a good coach. <br /><br />The real question is whether Harbs is "merely" a very good coach – say Marty Schottenheimer with better postseason luck just one time, where Marty got Marlon McCree fumbling the INT but Harbs instead got Rahim Moore missplaying a bomb – or whether Harbs is a HOF-caliber coach, somewhat like Bill Parcells in that he's more associated with team culture & execution & resilience rather than any one scheme or tactical innovation. <br /><br />The years of the Lamar era should settle that.<br /><br />
</p></span>
JimZipCodehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15136883430977136406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6518999264103251377.post-27122415379391508822020-01-25T05:45:00.029-05:002021-08-12T11:11:05.545-04:00PFF names someone other than Lamar the 2019 MVP (and Jim freaks out)One of my favorite pieces of sports analysis ever, is a piece that Bill James wrote in the mid-80s on Andre Dawson winning the National League MVP award over Ozzzie Smith.
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<br />
That piece is reprinted in Bill James' collection <a href="https://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Lets-Not-Bones/dp/B003L1UQEU">This Time Let's Not Eat The Bones</a>. I don't see a version of it online. <a href="https://www.billjamesonline.com/ozzie_and_the_mvp">This link</a> is NOT that piece; it's a piece by Dave Fleming, dated from 2017, about the way MVP voters have looked at various candidates over the years. It's an interesting read with similar points. But the Bill James piece – ! That was an absolutely savage, poisonous takedown of the MVP voters for giving the award to the leader in RBI, over a far more deserving candidate. It was a passionate cry for a newer smarter method of analysis.
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I don't see how anyone could read that, and not come away <b>at the very least</b> with a determination never EVER to uncritically use one “master stat” to select an MVP. Look broadly at all the available evidence. No single all-encompassing Big Number is the be-all end-all of the “best player” discussion. The guy who leads the league in RBi is not automatically the best player.<br />
<br />
Switching over to El Futbol Americaine, we're not going to say that the guy who led the league in TD passes or DVOA or whatever, is <b>automatically</b> the MVP. Today is a wonderful time to be an analytically-minded football fan. We got more sophisticated & intelligent methods now than we've ever had before. It's awesome. BUT! The fancy analytical methods are guides that can help us see things; none of them is The Answer.<br />
<br />
Which brings us to PFF's selection for League MVP of<br />
<a name='more'></a> <a href="https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-seattle-seahawks-qb-russell-wilson-pffs-most-valuable-player">Russell Wilson over Lamar Jackson.</a><br />
<br />
Before I beat them about the head and neck for this selection, let me first say that I <b>love</b> that their award for “the best player in the league regardless of position” is the Dwight Stephenson Award. 🙂 Can't argue with their choice of Kittle either. <b>WOW</b> what a player.<br />
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Their <a href="https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-baltimore-ravens-lamar-jackson-2019-pff-offensive-player-of-the-year">choice for Offensive Player of the Year</a> was Lamar, which (a) is blindingly obvious, but (b) is something we need to compliment them for, given their selection for MVP.<br />
<blockquote>
“Lamar takes home Offensive Player of the Year honors for 2019. <br />
The logic is simply that no player had as big of an impact on offense as Jackson did this season.”</blockquote>
Yep, that's the logic.<br />
<blockquote>
“The Baltimore Ravens offense ... looked nigh-on unstoppable for a significant chunk of the season. ... that unstoppable offense was built around the skills of Lamar Jackson. His ability to be the team’s top rushing and passing threat is unmatched throughout the NFL. ...<br />
No player in the league brought a more versatile danger to NFL defenses than Lamar Jackson... The impact of Jackson’s incredible season will be felt throughout the NFL for several years to come, as some teams will look to try and emulate it while everybody else will look for ways to stop it. For that reason, Jackson is a worthy winner of PFF’s Offensive Player of the Year Award.”</blockquote>
So: Lamar is the Offensive Player of the Year. Aaron Donald is the <a href="https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-pffs-2019-nfl-season-award-winners">DPOY</a>: no argument. George Kittle is the best player regardless of position: unusual, but fair. And the MVP is – none of the above!<br />
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You can sort of tell they have a sense that there's a problem. Check out their final paragraph:<br />
<blockquote>
What we can say, though, is that based on everything PFF is currently able to quantify, Russell Wilson, and not Jackson, added the most value to his team and is, therefore, the league’s MVP. When you try and see the entire board, Wilson dealt with much more adversity than Jackson did and was significantly ahead in terms of PFF WAR. So, Russell Wilson wins the award for a season in which there were two outstanding candidates.</blockquote>
Try and see the entire board, my ass. They begin the paragraph saying that they are basing on stuff they are currently able to quantify; which concedes that there's stuff they're NOT currently able to quantify. You can't then say that you're “seeing the entire board”! They just admitted in the prior sentence that they're NOT able to see the entire board! Grumble grumble.<br />
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Just feels like PFF tried to split the baby. <blockquote style="border: medium none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><div style="text-align: left;">[<b>EDIT</b> – removed the bit about the 1985 Grammy Awards, as superfluous and distracting.]</div></blockquote><div>
That's what this MVP feels like. PFF split the baby. Russell Wilson is a real <i>quarterback</i>, not some flash-in-the-pan hybrid passer-lite. Lamar Jackson fans should shut and and be grateful they get anything at all. Use one award to satisfy the Real Football People, and the other to satisfy the Young Hipsters Who Like This Flash-in-the-pan Stuff.<br />
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Look: Russ unquestionably had an MVP-caliber season. He played amazing. I had him as my midseason MVP: certainly he finished in the top ~3. Every year there's always a few guys worthy of serious MVP consideration; Russ absolutely is one of those guys this year. No argument whatsoever. But PFF is not arguing that Russ is one of the 3 best or most-valuable players in the league. They are arguing that he is the MOST valuable. Their “logic” for this is somewhere between “flawed” and “retarded”.<br />
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Let's dig into it.<br />
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PFF's selection of Russ as MVP is a Master Stat selection. They've developed a new metric, “PFF WAR”. Russ comes out #1 in that metric. Ergo he is the MVP. It is that ineluctable and simple. Yes, that form of reasoning was exploded 35 years ago. Sorry, it's what they did.<br />
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Here's their piece on the new metric:<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b><a href="https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-what-is-pff-war-and-why-it-shows-russell-wilson-is-the-mvp">WTF is PFF WAR and why we should care if it shows Russell Wilson is the MVP</a></b></div>
<blockquote>
Broadly, the PFF WAR model does these things, in order:<br />
<br />
Determine how good a given player was during a period of time (generally a season) using PFF grades;<br />
Map a player’s production to a “wins” value for his team using the relative importance of each facet of play;<br />
Simulate a team’s expected performance with a player of interest and with an average player participating identically in his place. Take the difference in expected wins (e.g., Wins Above Average);<br />
Determine the average player with a given participation profile’s wins above replacement player, assuming a team of replacement-level players is a 3-13 team;<br />
Add the terms in the last two calculations to get that player’s WAR.<br />
...<br />
WAR = Player Wins – Replacement-Level Player Wins<br />
= Player Wins – Average Player Wins +<br />
Average Player Wins – Replacement-Level Player Wins.<br />
...<br />
It’s obvious to anyone who watches football that quarterback is the most important position... It is surprising (although if you’ve followed along, maybe less so) that the further away from the ball a player plays, the more valuable they appear to be. After quarterbacks, wide receivers, defensive backs and tight ends have the highest average WAR.</blockquote>
Really?<br />
<br />
To my mind, there's a fine line between “dismissing a metric because it doesn't support your opinion of a player”, and “applying a sanity check when developing a brand-new metric”. PFF are developing a brand-new metric! Exciting work. And in the process, they look at this table:<br />
<br />
<table border="1"><tbody>
<tr><th>Season </th><th>Player </th><th>Position </th><th>Team </th><th>WAR</th></tr>
<tr><td align:="" center="">2006 </td><td>LaDainian Tomlinson </td><td align:="" center="">RB </td><td>SD </td><td align:="" right=""><b>0.34</b></td></tr>
<tr><td align:="" center="">2007 </td><td>Tom Brady </td><td align:="" center="">QB </td><td>NE </td><td align:="" right="">4.50</td></tr>
<tr><td align:="" center="">2008 </td><td>Peyton Manning </td><td align:="" center="">QB </td><td>IND </td><td align:="" right="">3.66</td></tr>
<tr><td align:="" center="">2009 </td><td>Peyton Manning </td><td align:="" center="">QB </td><td>IND </td><td align:="" right="">4.10</td></tr>
<tr><td align:="" center="">2010 </td><td>Tom Brady </td><td align:="" center="">QB </td><td>NE </td><td align:="" right="">2.61</td></tr>
<tr><td align:="" center="">2011 </td><td>Aaron Rodgers </td><td align:="" center="">QB </td><td>GB </td><td align:="" right="">4.75</td></tr>
<tr><td align:="" center="">2012 </td><td>Adrian Peterson </td><td align:="" center="">RB </td><td>MIN </td><td align:="" right=""><b>0.30</b></td></tr>
<tr><td align:="" center="">2013 </td><td>Peyton Manning </td><td align:="" center="">QB </td><td>DEN </td><td align:="" right="">4.45</td></tr>
<tr><td align:="" center="">2014 </td><td>Aaron Rodgers </td><td align:="" center="">QB </td><td>GB </td><td align:="" right="">3.87</td></tr>
<tr><td align:="" center="">2015 </td><td>Cam Newton </td><td align:="" center="">QB </td><td>CAR </td><td align:="" right="">2.88</td></tr>
<tr><td align:="" center="">2016 </td><td>Matt Ryan </td><td align:="" center="">QB </td><td>ATL </td><td align:="" right="">3.52</td></tr>
<tr><td align:="" center="">2017 </td><td>Tom Brady </td><td align:="" center="">QB </td><td>NE </td><td align:="" right="">5.38</td></tr>
<tr><td align:="" center="">2018 </td><td>Patrick Mahomes </td><td align:="" center="">QB </td><td>KC </td><td align:="" right="">4.39</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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And they didn't stop to wonder if this passes the smell test. Instead they were all like “WOW, running backs are <i>WARthless</i>.”
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<br />
This to me is a stop-and-check-your-work moment. If I designed a metric, and by that metric LDT 2006 and Adrian Peterson 2012 each came out as <b>less than 1/10th</b> as “valuable” as Peyton Manning 2008 – I personally would wonder if I did everything right in the work leading up to this step.<br />
<br />
Peyton Manning in 2008 finished: <br />
<ul>
<li>6th in yards (a full thousand behind Brees) </li>
<li>5th in TDs (7 behind Brees & Rivers) </li>
<li>6th in TD% (Rivers blew him away) </li>
<li>5th in Rating (Rivers was 10 pts ahead) </li>
<li>11th in YPA (Rivers was more than a full yard ahead)</li>
</ul>
I'm not trying to claim that Peyton '08 was anything less than Fucking Great. But, in the array of his career years, '08 was <i>less</i> Fucking Great than most of his other seasons. It's the 14th-highest yardage total of his career; the 9th-highest TD total; 10th in AV. Indy didn't even win their division that year! They finished a game behind the Titans; got booted Wildcard weekend by Rivers and the Chargers.<br />
<br />
PFR's assertion is that Peyton Manning in that season, was <i>more than ten times as valuable</i> as either LDT 2006 or Adrian Peterson 2012.<br />
<ul>
<li>LDT 2006: 1800 rush yds, 28 rush TDs (the record), 2300 scrimmage yards, AV of 26 (the record); Chargers 14-2, #1 seed</li>
<li>Peterson '12: 2100 rush yds, led the league in AV (a higher total than Manning '08); dragged <b>Christian Ponder </b>to the playoffs</li>
</ul>
I'm sorry: this does not pass the smell test. I am not an expert at football analytics in general; nor in Spearman correlation coefficients or Yurko nflWAR or Massey matrix methods in particular. I am not the guy who can easily identify exactly <i>where</i> PFR went off track. But at this stop-and-check-your-work moment, not being too deep in the weeds I can step back and say that <i>some</i>thing is fucked up.<br />
<br />
Peyton Manning's '08 season was <b>NOT</b> ten times more valuable than LDT '06 or Purple Jesus '12. Both Manning and AP led their teams to 2nd-place division finishes and first-round ousters from the playoffs. I will grant you that Manning's supporting cast in '08 was less impressive than he usually had; but it sure as shit wasn't inferior to AP's supporting cast in '12. All-Day's accomplishment seems CLEARLY more impressive to this layman; more “valuable”.<br />
<br />
The PFF position is a RB should <i>NEVER</i> be the MVP. <b>CAN</b> never be the MVP: it is not possible for even the greatest RB to be more valuable than an average QB. I think I understand the mechanics: certainly it's a passing league. But then I look at Jim Brown's career statistics. Not <i>possible</i> for a RB to be more valuable? Even if another man-among-boys come along, who teams simply can't bring down?
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<br />
We've been discussing the last ~dozen league MVPs over the last few paragraphs. But putting PFF's evaluation of LDT and AP in the context of MVPs, actually gives WAY too much deference to the PFF position. I'm comparing LDT & All-Day to Brady & Manning; and you can't help but think, “Well yeah I can buy that Brady & Manning are more valuable.” Of course you can: they're Brady & Manning.
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<br />
But PFF's position is the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weak_form_and_strong_form">strong form</a> of the “RBs don't matter” stance. The extremely strong form; the strongest form. They're not ONLY saying that AP & LDT were less than 1/10th as valuable as one of Manning's weaker years. PFF is saying they don't (can't!) come anywhere close to the other QBs who were playing those same years.
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<br />
Let's look at AP's 2012 season. Remember, he rushed for 2100, led the league in AV, got to the playoffs. Below are the #8 thru #19 QBs by Football Outsider's DYAR from that season. This is 12 starting QBs having average to good seasons, but not cracking the top 5:<br />
<br />
<table border="1"><tbody>
<tr><th># </th><th>Player </th><th>Cmp </th><th>Yards </th><th>TD / INT </th></tr>
<tr><td><div style="text-align: right;">
8 </div>
</td><td>Russell Wilson* </td><td align:="" center="">64% </td><td>3118 </td><td align:="" center=""><div style="text-align: center;">
26 / 10 </div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><div style="text-align: right;">
9</div>
</td><td>Ben Roethlisberger </td><td align:="" center="">63% </td><td>3265 </td><td align:="" center=""><div style="text-align: center;">
26 / 8 </div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td align:="" center="">10 </td><td>Eli Manning* </td><td align:="" center="">60% </td><td>3948 </td><td align:="" center=""><div style="text-align: center;">
26 / 15 </div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td align:="" center="">11 </td><td>Robert Griffin* </td><td align:="" center="">66% </td><td>3200 </td><td align:="" center=""><div style="text-align: center;">
20 / 5 </div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td align:="" center="">12 </td><td>Matt Schaub* </td><td align:="" center="">64% </td><td>4008 </td><td align:="" center=""><div style="text-align: center;">
22 / 12 </div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td align:="" center="">13 </td><td>Colin Kaepernick </td><td align:="" center="">62% </td><td>1814 </td><td align:="" center=""><div style="text-align: center;">
10 / 3 </div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td align:="" center="">14 </td><td>Cam Newton </td><td align:="" center="">58% </td><td>3869 </td><td align:="" center=""><div style="text-align: center;">
19 / 12 </div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td align:="" center="">15 </td><td>Alex Smith </td><td align:="" center="">70% </td><td>1737 </td><td align:="" center=""><div style="text-align: center;">
13 / 5 </div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td align:="" center="">16 </td><td>Sam Bradford </td><td align:="" center="">60% </td><td>3702 </td><td align:="" center=""><div style="text-align: center;">
21 / 13 </div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td align:="" center="">17 </td><td>Joe Flacco </td><td align:="" center="">60% </td><td>3817 </td><td align:="" center=""><div style="text-align: center;">
22 / 10 </div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td align:="" center="">18 </td><td>Carson Palmer </td><td align:="" center="">61% </td><td>4018 </td><td align:="" center=""><div style="text-align: center;">
22 / 14 </div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td align:="" center="">19 </td><td>Andrew Luck* </td><td align:="" center="">54% </td><td>4374 </td><td align:="" center=""><div style="text-align: center;">
23 / 18 </div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
I shoulda blacked-out the names: these are guys you know, SB winners, MVPs and whatnot. But look at the yardage and the TD/INTs. These are excellent players; but they are not great <i>seasons</i>. Yet the PFF position is that EACH of these seasons is somewhere around (guessing) 8 TIMES more valuable than Adrian Peterson's 2k season. I say bullshit. I say that each one of these seasons is much closer to replacement-level than what AP did that year.<br />
<br />
Remember that LDT in '06 had 2300 scrimmage yards and 31 rush+recv TDs, set the record for PFR's AV stat. Here are the #8 thru #19 QBs by Football Outsider's DYAR from that season:<br />
<br />
<br />
<table border="1"><tbody>
<tr><th># </th><th>Player </th><th>Cmp </th><th>Yards </th><th>TD / INT </th></tr>
<tr><td><div style="text-align: right;">
8 </div>
</td><td>Tony Romo </td><td align:="" center="">65% </td><td>2903 </td><td align:="" center=""><div style="text-align: center;">
19 / 13 </div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><div style="text-align: right;">
9 </div>
</td><td>Donovan McNabb </td><td align:="" center="">57% </td><td>2647 </td><td align:="" center=""><div style="text-align: center;">
18 / 6 </div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td align:="" center="">10 </td><td>Ben Roethlisberger </td><td align:="" center="">60% </td><td>3513 </td><td align:="" center=""><div style="text-align: center;">
18 / 23 </div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td align:="" center="">11 </td><td>Steve McNair </td><td align:="" center="">63% </td><td>3050 </td><td align:="" center=""><div style="text-align: center;">
16 / 12 </div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td align:="" center="">12 </td><td>Damon Huard </td><td align:="" center="">61% </td><td>1878 </td><td align:="" center=""><div style="text-align: center;">
11 / 1 </div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td align:="" center="">13 </td><td>Eli Manning </td><td align:="" center="">58% </td><td>3244 </td><td align:="" center=""><div style="text-align: center;">
24 / 18 </div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td align:="" center="">14 </td><td>Jon Kitna </td><td align:="" center="">62% </td><td>4208 </td><td align:="" center=""><div style="text-align: center;">
21 / 22 </div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td align:="" center="">15 </td><td>Brett Favre </td><td align:="" center="">56% </td><td>3885 </td><td align:="" center=""><div style="text-align: center;">
18 / 18 </div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td align:="" center="">16 </td><td>Mark Brunell </td><td align:="" center="">62% </td><td>1789 </td><td align:="" center=""><div style="text-align: center;">
8 / 4 </div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td align:="" center="">17 </td><td>Jeff Garcia </td><td align:="" center="">62% </td><td>1309 </td><td align:="" center=""><div style="text-align: center;">
10 / 2 </div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td align:="" center="">18 </td><td>Jake Delhomme </td><td align:="" center="">61% </td><td>2805 </td><td align:="" center=""><div style="text-align: center;">
17 / 11 </div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td align:="" center="">19 </td><td>Matt Leinart </td><td align:="" center="">57% </td><td>2547 </td><td align:="" center=""><div style="text-align: center;">
11 / 12 </div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
C'mon! Not a single one of these guys was having a season as valuable as LDTs; or was performing further above replacement. But the PFF position is that each one of these seasons is (guessing again) something like 7 or 8 times more valuable.<br />
<br />
I don't know exactly WHAT is wrong with PFF WAR, their shiny new Master Stat. But <b>something</b> is. They appear to assign zero value to running the football. I'm no “establish the run” guy (well, maybe a little): but <b>zero</b> seems a little extreme.<br />
<br />
<hr />
<br />
It is informative to compare PFF's new Master Stat, with some other Master Stats from around the football analytics-verse; ones that have stood the test of some years, and are understood as being sturdy & usable, though not without warts of their own.<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>Football Outsider's DYAR
</b><br />
<br />
Ah, the site that named itself after a Bill James article. Sigh. ❤️<br />
<br />
Remember FO has their <i>efficiency</i> stat, which is DVOA, and their <i>counting</i> stat, which is DYAR. Brees was #1 (40%) in their passing efficiency stat this sesaon, followed by Lamar #2 (35%) and Mahomes #3 (30%). Russ was 7th (25%). This below is the counting stat:<br />
<br />
<b>Passing only:</b><br />
<table border="1"><tbody>
<tr><th>Player </th><th>DYAR </th></tr>
<tr><td>Dak </td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
1546 </div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td>Brees </td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
1324 </div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td>Mahomes </td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
1322 </div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td>Russ </td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
1297 </div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td>Lamar </td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
1272 </div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Russ & Lamar are very close! Seems reasonable that Russ could be better, with some consideration for situational play, right? But wait!
<br />
<br />
<b>Rushing only:</b><br />
<table border="1"><tbody>
<tr><th>Player </th><th>DYAR </th></tr>
<tr><td>Lamar </td><td align:="" right=""><div style="text-align: right;">
261 </div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"><div style="text-align: center;">
(16 others)</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td>Russ </td><td align:="" right=""><div style="text-align: right;">
32 </div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
(Among other running QBs, only Kyler & Josh Allen have rushing DYAR over 100, ie enough to make a real impact in the QB rankings.)<br />
<br />
So for “total” DYAR = passing + rushing, Lamar is 1533 to Russ's 1329.<br />
<br />
To put that delta of 200 in perspective, that's similar to the difference between Mahomes & Russ this year; or between Lamar and Derek Carr. It's sizable.
<br />
<br />
BTW, combined pass + rush DYA, Dak finishes first with 1600. Dak for MVP!
<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>ESPN's QBR
</b><br />
<br />
I used to be highly critical of QBR for being a magic black box. But since inception, more info has come out on how it's calculated (I think they also revised it some). It's based on expected-points-added per play; and I have a high regard for EPA analysis. So I give QBR a little more weight than I used to.
<br />
<br />
FO and PFR both list QBR for 2019, They have slightly different but very close values for each QB:
<br />
<br />
<table border="1"><tbody>
<tr><th># </th><th>Player </th><th>QBR-FO </th><th>| </th><th>QB </th><th>QBR-PFR </th></tr>
<tr><td><div style="text-align: center;">
1 </div>
</td><td><b>Lamar</b> </td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
81.7 </div>
</td><td>| </td><td><b>Lamar</b> </td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
81.1 </div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><div style="text-align: center;">
2 </div>
</td><td>Mahomes </td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
76.4 </div>
</td><td>| </td><td>Mahomes </td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
78.0 </div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><div style="text-align: center;">
3 </div>
</td><td>Brees </td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
71.8 </div>
</td><td>| </td><td>Brees </td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
74.2 </div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><div style="text-align: center;">
4 </div>
</td><td>Dak </td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
70.6 </div>
</td><td>| </td><td>Stafford </td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
73.1 </div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><div style="text-align: center;">
5 </div>
</td><td>Stafford </td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
70.2 </div>
</td><td>| </td><td>Dak </td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
71.2 </div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><div style="text-align: center;">
6 </div>
</td><td><b>Russ</b> </td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
69.8 </div>
</td><td>| </td><td>Deshaun </td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
69.5 </div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><div style="text-align: center;">
7 </div>
</td><td>Deshaun </td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
68.9 </div>
</td><td>| </td><td><b>Russ</b> </td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
69.4 </div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><div style="text-align: center;">
8 </div>
</td><td>Fitzmagik </td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
66.6 </div>
</td><td>| </td><td>Tannehill </td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
65.4 </div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><div style="text-align: center;">
9 </div>
</td><td>Tannehill </td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
62.5 </div>
</td><td>| </td><td>Fitz </td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
64.7 </div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><div style="text-align: center;">
10 </div>
</td><td>DCarr </td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
62.4 </div>
</td><td>| </td><td>DCarr </td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
63.7 </div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
QBR includes rushing plays, as I understand it; I don't think there's a passing-only implementation of QBR. Russ either 6th or 7th, depending on who's calculating it correctly.<br />
(<b>Edit</b>: I just looked at ESPN
<a href="https://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr/_/seasontype/2" target="_blank">https://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr/_/seasontype/2</a>
, they have Russ 5th, flipped with Stafford by pctg pts. All values extremely close to these.)
<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>PFR's AV
</b><br />
Approximate Value is a fun tool. I'm not trying to claim it's the final word; but I find it hella useful for looking at guys in the context of the HOF etc. It's a very intelligent stab at an utterly impossible task.
<br />
<br />
Prior to this year, the single-sesaon record for AV belonged to LaDainian Tomlinson 2006 (his season with 28 TDs).
Top 15 all time:
<br />
<br />
<b>26</b> – LDT '06<br />
25 – Marshall Faulk '99, OJ '75<br />
24 – Tom Brady '07, Rolland Lawrence '77 (who?)<br />
23 – Jim Brown '64, Priest Holmes '02, Ray Lewis 2000, Wilber Marshall '86,
Lydell Mitchell, Alan Page, Aaron Rodgers '11, Pat Swilling '91, Steve Young 93-94
<br />
<br />
After that, 17 players had a season with AV of 22, incl Derrick Brooks '02, Jim Brown '63, Terrell Davis '98. Marshall Faulk twice, Mahomes last year, Fouts, Bert Jones, Alan Page, JJ Watt, Steve Young '92
<br />
<br />
Here's your 2019 AV leaderboard:
<br />
<br />
<table border="1"><tbody>
<tr><th>Player </th><th>AV </th></tr>
<tr><td>Lamar Jackson </td><td><b>26</b> </td></tr>
<tr><td>Stephon Gilmore </td><td>21 </td></tr>
<tr><td>Marcus Peters </td><td>21 </td></tr>
<tr><td>Minkah Fitzpatrick </td><td>20 </td></tr>
<tr><td>Ronnie Stanley </td><td>19 </td></tr>
<tr><td>Tre'Davious White </td><td>19 </td></tr>
<tr><td>Cameron Heyward </td><td>18 </td></tr>
<tr><td>Michael Thomas </td><td>18 </td></tr>
<tr><td>Dont'a Hightower </td><td>17 </td></tr>
<tr><td>Patrick Mahomes </td><td>17 </td></tr>
<tr><td>Ryan Ramczyk </td><td>17 </td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Lamar joins LDT at the top of the list for highest-AV season <b>in NFL history</b>.<br />
<blockquote style="border: medium none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><div style="text-align: left;">[<b>EDIT</b> – PFR has since recalculated their AVs for the 2019 season. Lamar now "only" has an AV of 24.]</div></blockquote><div>
<br />
<br />
Now: neither DYAR nor QBR nor AV is perfect. But we've used them all for years; and by this point we know that they're <i>pretty good</i>. They do what they do; and they are not bad at it. FO has been the most forthcoming over the years; PFR is terse but transparent, and damn consistent. QBR is the new kid on the block, and had some growing pains: but it's on sound footing. Extremely solid analyst team behind it.
<br />
<br />
Neither one of these Master Stats is perfect. But <b>ALL</b> of them have Lamar #1. AV grades him with an historic season; as do our eyes.
<br />
<br />
If you're barging into this space with a new Master Stat, as PFF is, and it produces output that diverges widely from these; then you bear a burden of proof.
<br />
<br />
<hr />
<br />
PFF seems to understand that their stat is not persuasive all by itself. Their official case for Russ as MVP is that their Master Stat says so; but in their post about it, they engage in a fair amount of hand-waving to try to support it.
<br />
<br />
Let's start with the quantifiable statements:<br />
<blockquote>
“Only Lamar Jackson had fewer turnover-worthy plays (TWPs) than Wilson among quarterbacks who started all year, and he had just two fewer (nine to 11) despite attempting 153 fewer passes over the course of the season.”</blockquote>
So first of all, Lamar's # of attempts was <b>not</b> 153 less than Russ's. I don't see where they get their number. Pro Football Ref has Lamar's # of pass attempts on the season as 401, and Russ's as 516, for a delta of 115. If you try to add in the postseason, Russ attempted 61 passes in the playoffs, but Lamar attempted 59, so the delta is still only 117. Where is this 150 coming from?<br />
<br />
You can get close to that delta of 150 if you count, not pass attempts, but <b>ALL</b> dropbacks: pass attempts + sacks + scrambles:<br />
<br />
<table border="1"><tbody>
<tr><th>Stat</th><th>Lamar </th><th>Russ </th></tr>
<tr><td align:="" right="">Attempts </td><td align:="" right="" style="text-align: right;">401 </td><td align:="" right="" style="text-align: right;">516</td></tr>
<tr><td align:="" right="">Sacks </td><td align:="" right="" style="text-align: right;">23 </td><td align:="" right="" style="text-align: right;">48</td></tr>
<tr><td align:="" right="">Scrambles </td><td align:="" right="" style="text-align: right;">39 </td><td align:="" right="" style="text-align: right;">45</td></tr>
<tr><td align:="" center="" style="text-align: right;"><b>sum</b> </td><td align:="" right="" style="text-align: right;">463 </td><td align:="" right="" style="text-align: right;">609</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
That gives a delta of 146 dropbacks: pretty close to PFF's of 153 number.<br />
<br />
BUT! Despite PFF feeling that rush plays don't count at all, there were in fact rushing plays. Lamar had 107 more non-scramble rush attempts than Russ did; more than 4-1/2 times the number Russ did, 137 to 30. Lamar fumbled <b>once</b> on all his runs (srambles + non-scrambles), a dramatic moment in the Niners game. I don't know how many times Russ did.</div><div><br /></div><div>If we add together all their "scrimmage touches", we get a very different delta:<br />
<br />
<table border="1"><tbody>
<tr><th>Stat</th><th>Lamar </th><th>Russ </th></tr>
<tr><td>Attempts</td><td style="text-align: right;">401</td><td style="text-align: right;">516</td></tr>
<tr><td>Sacks</td><td style="text-align: right;">23</td><td style="text-align: right;">48</td></tr>
<tr><td>Scrambles</td><td style="text-align: right;">39</td><td style="text-align: right;">45</td></tr>
<tr><td>non-Scram runs</td><td style="text-align: right;">137</td><td style="text-align: right;">30</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: right;"><b>total</b> </td><td style="text-align: right;">600 </td><td style="text-align: right;">639</td></tr>
</tbody></table><br />
That's not a delta of 150. So the accurate statement here is that Lamar had one less turnover-worthy play on <b>39</b> less pass+rush attempts on the season. In other words, Russ did *NOT* do a better job taking care of the ball than Lamar. </div><div> </div><div>PFF has been unbelievably sloppy here; if not downright dishonest. </div><div><br />
<div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">(A factoid on QB fumbles: official NFL stats charge the QB with a fumble on bad snaps and on bobbled hand-offs. QBs always lead their team in fumbles. Russ was charged with 8 fumbles on the season; these don't seem to count among his "turnover-worthy plays" per PFF. Russ had 13 INTs, but only 11 "TWPs" according to the snippet above, so those fumbles have vanished. I'm going to take the same approach to Lamar's 9 charged fumbles on the year: treat only one of them as "real", the one from the Niners game.)</div>
<br />
Also, it's weird that they don't mention <b>sacks</b> in discussing how the two players performed as QBs. Russell Wilson tied for the league lead in most-sacks-taken (with Kyler & Matt Ryan), and he was 5th from the worst (among qualifiers) in sack%. Lamar had the 7th-best sack pctg. <br />
<br />
<table border="1"><tbody>
<tr><th><br /></th><th>Lamar </th><th>Russ </th></tr>
<tr><td>Sack%</td><td style="text-align: right;">5.7%</td><td style="text-align: right;">8.5%</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
That's a big difference! Russ takes sacks much more often than Lamar does: not just a higher raw total, but more <i>often</i>. And you can see why on tape. Lamar is much MUCH better at managing the pocket than Russ is. It isn't close. You can't watch the film and miss this. Lamar in 2019 is on a Drew Brees level in terms of pocket presence. He's passed Brady – probably more accurate to say that Brady has fallen behind Lamar due to age related decline.
<br />
<br />
Lamar took a big step forward after the Pittsburgh game, and esp after the bye. From week 6 thru the end of the season, Lamar was sacked at a rate of 3.2%. For comparison, on the season Brees was 3.1% and Mahomes 3.4%. Most running QBs take too many sacks; with Lamar, it's shocking when he gets sacked. From my vantage point on the couch watching TV, this doesn't have much to do with the O-line (except Stanley at LT is a rock). Most of it is skill and balance. Lamar takes small steps to navigate the pocket, Peyton- or Brady-esque. He moves just a little to give his O-linemen better leverage. The rest of it is Lamar's processing speed and ridiculous athleticism. He is so absurdly gifted at making a guy miss, that he can afford to be eerily calm with a guy bearing down on him. Just utterly unconcerned. Many times this season we've seen Lamar facing a a free rusher. If it's a LB, Lamar just ignores him; then, I dunno, phases thru him or something at the last instant, then snaps off his throw. If it's a DB – hell, we've seen Lamar just run away from corners, up the opposite sideline for a big gain. Preposterous.
<br />
<br />
Wilson's story is different. His sack% was worse than Deshaun Watson; was better <b>only</b> than Haskins, Tannehill, Flacco and Kyle Allen. The reason is that Russ drops his eyes at the first sign of trouble, and he holds the ball too long. He wasn't always like this, I think: but he was this year. Eight years of consistently shitty OLs taking their toll on him, perhaps. Whether it's chicken or egg, right now Russ's pocket presence is shitty. Lamar's sack percentage is much better because Lamar's skills and habits are much better, right now. Maybe Russ can get it back and Lamar will have it shell-shocked out of him.
<br />
<br />
</div><div>So: PFF has been simply inaccurate on the quantifiable statement about turnover-caliber mistakes per play; and they have completely ignored the sack data. From here PFF proceeds with the hand-waving. I'm going to break apart a couple paragraphs into separate statements.<br />
<blockquote>
While Jackson had an entire offense built around his strengths and had a coaching staff that embraced analytics to extend drives and steal fine winning margins, Wilson was dealing with a situation that consistently put him behind the eight ball then asked him to dig the team out of a hole. The fact that he was able to do just that as consistently as he did only stands testament to his MVP-caliber season.</blockquote>
Lamar was an outstanding-enough talent to justify building an entire offense around his strengths; therefore Russ is "more valuable". I don't fully track with the logic of this statement.<br />
<blockquote>
Wilson may not have been at the helm of an unstoppable juggernaut of an offense...</blockquote>
Therefore Russ is "more valuable"? I have some trouble with that too.<br />
<blockquote>
... but consider the offensive line working in front of him. ... It’s definitely fair to say that those Ravens linemen benefitted from an offensive scheme and system that made their jobs easier — all of which was only possible because of their quarterback — but it’s equally as true to say that Wilson bailed his group out too, just in a different way.</blockquote>
No. It is NOT equally true. Lamar does more to make his O-line better than any QB since Peyton Manning; I thnk more than any <i>including</i> Peyton Manning. Above I dissected Lamar's vs Russ's sack numbers. Lamar is in rarefied air as a pocket manager; Brees/Brady/Manning territory. He utterly erases free rushers; makes them a complete waste of time for defenses. Below we will discuss Lamar's impact on the running game. But between the two phases, it is not close. Lamar does more to help his O-line than any QB in the history of the game; and much more than Russ does.<br />
<br />
There *IS* something to concede here. Baltimore All-Pro LT Ronnie Stanley is much better than any O-lineman Seattle has; probably better than any O-lineman Russ has ever played with. Even in his 13th season and flirting with retirement, Marshall Yanda is better than anyone on Seattle's line. Two outstanding pieces to build a great line around. BUT. Glancing at PFR, I see that Seattle had 4 first-rd picks start 12-16 games for them, and 1 second-rd pick start 8. There's real talent there.<br />
<br />
The Ravens had an UDFA center; then when he went down with injury, replaced him with another UDFA. Their starting LG was a sixth-rd pick. That's two lower-talent guys right in the middle of the line: the left A-gap. The RT is enormous and strong, but not super mobile. The Ravens OL is cohesive and well-coached; they play with high effort and good technique; but no one looks at them and forgets the 90s-era Cowboys. The Titans showed the talent limitations of the Ravens OL; and before them, the Niners did; and before them, the Steelers did.
<br />
<br />
This is not a wall of All-Pros. I think it's a "lumpy" group: the best Baltimore O-lineman is better than the best Seattle O-lineman, but I think the worst Baltimore O-lineman (Mekari? Bozeman?) is not as good as the worst (starting) Seattle O-lineman. High variance. Lamar raised this group's level of play.
<br />
<blockquote>
The other thing that differentiates Wilson’s performance is just how often he had to play from behind. </blockquote>
Wilson's team fell behind more often; and that demonstrates that he is more valuable than Lamar? Mmm, this also leaves me unconvinced.<br />
<br />
I dunno, man. PFF seems to think that Lamar is in a situation where any QB would thrive, and Russell is in hell. I mean, maybe Russ is in hell: Brian Schottenheimer, shudder. And Petey has never seemed to put any effort into building a good O-line. But from my vantage 2700 miles away, it seems to me that if Lamar and Russ switched places, the Seattle offense would improve and the Baltimore offense would decline.
<br />
<br />
Out West:<br />
<ul>
<li>The Seattle OL would instantly become better pass-blockers</li>
<li>The Seattle RBs would instantly find more room to run</li>
<li>Lamar would get to throw to Tyler Lockett & DK Metcalf</li>
<li>More first downs, fewer punts, longer drives, couple more wins</li>
</ul>
Back East:<br />
<ul>
<li>The Ravens interior OL would be exposed</li>
<li>The Ravens pass-blocking would deteriorate (except for Ronnie Stanley)</li>
<li>Rushing holes would shrink or close completely</li>
<li>At WR Russ would be throwing to rookies Marquise Brown & Miles Boykin, along with some solid possession guys in Snead & Roberts.</li>
</ul>This switch is actually very unkind to Russ. His strength as a QB is his vision and his fantastic deep-ball placement. But the 2019 Baltimore roster nerfs that strength, with two rookies as deep threats. The great TE corps would still be there; probably Russ gets more out of Hayden Hurst than Lamar did. And maybe Boykin too? On balance though, this looks to me like a net negative for Baltimore. They lose the record-setting rushing attack, and don't gain enough in the passing game to offset.<br />
<br />
That's how I see it. The sack% and the rushing success tell the story. If Russ & Lamar had swapped teams for the 2019 season, Seattle would have been better and Baltimore would have been worse. But maybe you see it differently.<br />
<br />
<hr />
<br />
This here is PFF's capstone; and to me it is the final throw-up-our-hands admission: “We fucked up! And we know it! We're just not sure exactly where.”<br />
<blockquote>
Some things are truly intangible and, as of yet, still unquantifiable. We can calculate the value that players brought to their teams above expected or even above the average at the position, but we can’t yet fully quantify the value of Lamar Jackson having such a unique and devastating skill set that it allowed an entire offense to be built around it from the ground up — an offense that made everybody’s job easier and worked in perfect harmony... It’s certainly reasonable to say that’s a blind spot in PFF’s numbers and determine, because of this, that Jackson is the worthy MVP, and you wouldn’t get much argument from us.</blockquote>
“Reasonable to say it's a blind spot” – Ya think?!?<br />
<br />
In early Dec they published a look at rushing QBs. I can't read it, subscription only, but here are the intro paragraphs:<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<a href="https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-pff-data-study-value-of-rushing-quarterbacks-in-the-nfl">https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-pff-data-study-value-of-rushing-quarterbacks-in-the-nfl</a>
</div>
<blockquote>
Going into week 14, the Ravens were averaging an unbelievable 0.07 expected points added per run play, which was more than all but 11 teams were generating throwing the football (the Ravens are also first there). Precisely zero teams in the PFF era have generated a positive EPA on running plays over the first 14 weeks of a season, and only 28 teams in 14 years have managed a positive EPA on run plays during one full season.<br />
<br />
A lot of this is, of course, is Jackson, who is leading the league in yards per rush attempt, generating over 0.12 EPA per run play on designed run plays (along with an outrageous 0.85 EPA on non-sack scrambles). However, Ravens run plays to running backs have been successful as well, with Mark Ingram II having a career year at age 30 (5.0 yards per carry, 0.11 EPA per attempt) and Gus Edwards building off of a great finish to his rookie year as his backup (5.1, 0.11).<br />
<br />
This begs the question, do “running quarterbacks” make it easier for running backs to be successful on the ground?</blockquote>
WHAT THE HELL IS THIS?!? Have the people at PFF watched any football games in the last 10-15 years? <b>Everyone</b> knows that running QBs make it easier for RBs to be successful on the ground. Even people who only watch the NFL, no college football, have still known for more than 15 years that running QBs make it easier for RBs to be successful.<br />
<ul>
<li>Michael Vick & Warrick Dunn & TJ Duckett showed us that in 2002 & '04
</li>
<li>Colin Kaepernick & Frank Gore showed us that in 2012-13.
</li>
<li>Russell Wilson & Marshawn Lynch showed us that in 2012-14.
</li>
<li>Tyrod Taylor & LeSean McCoy & Karlos Williams showed us that in 2014
</li>
<li>Cam Newton & Jonathan Stewart showed us that in 2015.
</li>
<li>Lamar Jackson & Gus Edwards showed us that in 2018.
</li>
</ul>
Unless you think Gus Bus' natural level of play is the 5.4 yards per carry he averaged after Lamar became the starter in 2018.<br />
<br />
I love Mark Ingram. But: he got to Baltimore and as a 30yo player he reversed a 2-year decline in his yards-per-carry to post a 5.0, while playing for an offense that ran the ball 56% of the time. Opposing defenses were READY for the run
<br />
<br />
And oh yeah, I hear they play a little football in college too.
<br />
<br />
<b>This is not new information!</b> The mechanisms are EXTREMELY well understood. A running QB forces the front 7 to hesitate for a second. They can't crash the RB. Backside guys have to keep contain in case of the bootleg. Front-side guys have to worry about being read, play their assignment & fundamentals and wait for the play to declare itself.
<br />
<br />
More fundamentally, the running QB changes the math on rush attempts. When a QB hands off, the defense is playing 11 on 10. The QB is out of the play, so 11 defenders are trying to tackle 1 runner who has 9 blockers. When the QB runs it, the defense no longer has a man advantage. It's 11 on 11. We heard all abou this when the Kaepernick Niners were making 3 straight conf championship appearances 7 & 8 years ago.</div><div> </div><div>How the hell did PFF not get the memo???
<br />
<br />
In 2018:<br />
<ul>
<li>Games 1 thru 9, Ravens RBs rushed for 3.5 yards per carry, 175 rushes for 611 yds.</li>
<li>Team went 4-5.
</li></ul>
Then Lamar took over.<br />
<ul>
<li>Games 10 thru 16, Ravens RBs rushed for 5.4 yards per carry, 178 rushes for 965 yds</li>
<li>Team went 6-1.
</li>
</ul>
That's basically <i><b>+2</b></i> yards-per-carry! Out of the same cast of runners! (Roles switched around a little.) Same OL! The opposing defenses weren't great; but they weren't facing a full NFL offense either. There was really only one major difference.<br />
<br />
<hr />
<br />
Of course everyone understands that the last bit is the reason Lamar is the MVP. Lamar & Russ gained close to the same total yards (passing & rushing), with Lamar throwing a few more TD passes; <b>AND</b> Lamar improved his team's rushing attack, in a way & to an extent that no other QB in league history ever had before. Lamar <i>led the league</i> in TD passes; <b>AND</b> he rushed for 1200 yds with 7 more TDs. All by itself that's preposterous; but then Lamar <b>ALSO</b> created rushing lanes for his backs, thru the threat of his presence and his ball-handling in the option game, leading to the most prolific rushing offense in NFL history.<br />
<ul>
<li>1st in TD%; </li>
<li>2nd in FO's DVOA; </li>
<li>3rd in passer rating; </li>
<li>4th in PFR's "AdjNetYds per attempt"; </li>
<li>8th in completion%; </li>
<li>8th in (best) sack%; </li>
<li>10th in (best) INT%; </li>
<li>11th in yards-per-attempt. </li>
</ul>
That's a top-5 passer in half of the relevant effiency metrics; and top-10 in the rest of them; while leading the league in TD passes <i>and</i> rushing for 1200 yds. And additionally he does this other thing, opening up holes for his teammates to rush 420 times for 2090 yards (4.98ypc) and 14 TDs.<br />
<br />
It just isn't possible for another player in 2019 to top those accomplishments.
<br />
<br />
Lamar did not manage all this because he had a dominating O-line; esp not on the left interior. He did not accomplish this because Marquise Brown & Mark Andrews are more productive pass-catchers than Tyler Lockett & DK Metcalf. He did not accomplish this because 30yo Mark Ingram is a more devastating runner than 25yo Chris Carson, or faster than 23yo Rashaad Penny. </div><div><br />
It <i>is</i> true that Lamar was aided by having Greg Roman calling plays rather than human wheel boot Brian Schottenheimer. But mostly Lamar's team accomplished more on offense than Russ's team this season, because Lamar was flat-out more valuable than Russ was.
<br /> </div><div>Please understand what I'm saying here. There are certainly aspects of quarterbacking that Russ is much better at than Lama. Russ understands coverages and blitzes better than Lamar does; and he still has ridiculous deep-ball placement. His judgement in avoiding INTs is terrific. But it's <b>also</b> true that Russ is much more skittish and ineffective managing the pocket than Lamar is; he doesn't make pass rushers look silly the way he used to; and he was never as gifted a runner as Lamar is.
<br />
<br />
Lamar just has greater impact on a game than Wilson does. It's why he won the Heisman at age 19 rather than finishing 9th in the Heisman voting as a senior; why he was drafted in the first round at age 21 rather than the second round at age 24; and why he became the youngest QB to start an NFL playoff game. He took over a .444 team, and they've gone 19-3 (.864) since then. He's that impactful.<br />
<br />
<hr />
<br />
It's ALSO true that it could all end any minute for Lamar. One tackler he doesn't see, one bad plant-&-twist in the turf. Russ has proven his toughness & smarts & availability; hasn't missed a game in 8 seasons, 9-6 record in postseason, made the postseason 7 seasons out of a possible 8, advanced 6 out of those 7 seasons. It's obvious that Russ on his <i>career</i> has been far more valuable than Lamar. Unfair comparison, but still true. Would take years for Lamar to build a career resume a third as impressive as Russ's. (Winning one playoff game would be a nice start.)
<br />
<br />
But in <b>this</b> single season; Lamar is the clear MVP over Russ, and it really isn't close. PFF needs to go back to the drawing board.
</div></div>JimZipCodehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10910763846618963025noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6518999264103251377.post-74383760087755747982014-11-01T02:38:00.003-04:002014-11-01T02:40:11.312-04:00I've recently been following Kansas City Royals discussion boards following their loss to the Giants.<br><br>
Fans are mostly putting on brave faces. "We had a great year". "If anyone had told me in April that the Royals would lose a World Series that came down to the final at bat I would have been ecstatic". <br><br>
While those sentiments are true from some hypothetical fan-value perspective, I am certain that unless the Royals manage to actually win a World Series in the next few years, every fan of that team will feel that 2014 was the one that got away. No one will be proudly remembering their great run, they will be gnashing their teeth at something nearly achieved.<br><br>
<span id="fullpost">
Winning in sports is hard. Winning championships that much harder.<br><br>
While being a Lion fan hasn't lended itself to regrets in my lifetime, I can certainly think of fanbases who must feel like their team squandered great opportunities. The Eagles were probably the poster child for this in the '00s. The 49ers may be lining up as the next one.<br><br>
Being a Viking fan must be particularly painful as they had some of the greatest teams in NFL history at the end of the '60s and into the '70s with no titles, only to come back in the '90s with more dominant teams that fell on their playoff faces. The Bills and Browns were legendary for disappointing their fans, and I'm not sure that the one Greatest Show champonship for the Rams really makes up for their repeated failures in the '70s and in the years since '99.<br><br>
I'm not going to go out of my way to feel sorry for Royal Fan, or to root for that team to redeem their fans' collective faith. I've got my own disappointing teams to root for and my own pile of schadenfreude to collect.
</span>Patrick Dhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08457532328133529987noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6518999264103251377.post-58245777352563538202014-08-07T23:32:00.001-04:002014-08-08T12:49:10.035-04:005 Year Record<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
In the table below, ties are broken by postseason wins, where applicable, under the theory that one postseason win is worth more than one reg season win. It's a slightly greater accomplishment. Thus Indy is listed ahead of the Steelers, and the Giants over the Chargers. Ties remaining after that are broken by the most recent reg season record, under the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately theory. Thus Panthers ahead of Dolphins; likewise Lions over Raiders, and Bills over Buccs over Skins.<br />
<br />
For comparison, last season's list is <a href="http://oblongspheroid.blogspot.com/2013/02/5-year-record.html">here</a>.<br />
<br />
<span id="fullpost">
<span style="font-family: times; font-size: 95%;">
<b></b><table border="1"><tbody>
<tr><th align="center" rowspan="2">Team</th><th align="center" colspan="6">Reg season</th><th></th><th align="center" colspan="6">Post season</th><th></th><th rowspan="2">Grand Total</th></tr>
<tr><th>2009</th><th>2010</th><th>2011</th><th>2012</th><th>2013</th><th>Sum</th><th></th><th>2009</th><th>2010</th><th>2011</th><th>2012</th><th>2013</th><th>Sum</th><th></th></tr>
<tr><td align="left">New England Patriots</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">14</td><td align="center">13</td><td align="center">12</td><td align="center">12</td><td align="center">61</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">65</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Green Bay Packers</td><td align="center">11</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">15</td><td align="center">11</td><td align="center">8.5</td><td align="center">55.5</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">60.5</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">New Orleans Saints</td><td align="center">13</td><td align="center">11</td><td align="center">13</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">11</td><td align="center">55</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">3</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">60</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Baltimore Ravens</td><td align="center">9</td><td align="center">12</td><td align="center">12</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">51</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">58</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">San Francisco 49ers</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">13</td><td align="center">11.5</td><td align="center">12</td><td align="center">50.5</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">55.5</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Indianapolis Colts</td><td align="center">14</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center">11</td><td align="center">11</td><td align="center">48</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">3</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">51</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Pittsburgh Steelers</td><td align="center">9</td><td align="center">12</td><td align="center">12</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">49</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">51</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Atlanta Falcons</td><td align="center">9</td><td align="center">13</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">13</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">49</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">50</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Denver Broncos</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">13</td><td align="center">13</td><td align="center">46</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center">3</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">49</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Seattle Seahawks</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">11</td><td align="center">13</td><td align="center">43</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">3</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">48</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">New York Giants</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">9</td><td align="center">9</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">43</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">47</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">San Diego Chargers</td><td align="center">13</td><td align="center">9</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">9</td><td align="center">46</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">47</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">New York Jets</td><td align="center">9</td><td align="center">11</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">42</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">46</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Chicago Bears</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">11</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">44</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">45</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Cincinnati Bengals</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">9</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">11</td><td align="center">44</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">44</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Philadelphia Eagles</td><td align="center">11</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">43</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">43</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Dallas Cowboys</td><td align="center">11</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">41</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">42</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Houston Texans</td><td align="center">9</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">12</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center">39</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">41</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Arizona Cardinals</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">38</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">39</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Minnesota Vikings</td><td align="center">12</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">3</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">5.5</td><td align="center">36.5</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">37.5</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Tennessee Titans</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">9</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">36</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">36</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Carolina Panthers</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">12</td><td align="center">35</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">35</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Miami Dolphins</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">35</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">35</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Kansas City Chiefs</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center">11</td><td align="center">34</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">34</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Detroit Lions</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">29</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">29</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Oakland Raiders</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">29</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">29</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Buffalo Bills</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">28</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">28</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Tampa Bay Buccnrs</td><td align="center">3</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">28</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">28</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Washington Redskins</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">3</td><td align="center">28</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">28</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Jacksonville Jaguars</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">26</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">26</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">St. Louis Rams</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center">7.5</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">24.5</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">24.5</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Cleveland Browns</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">23</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">23</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</span><br />
Seriously, who is at all surprised to see the Pats at the top of this list? What Bill Belichick has accomplished over the years is amazing. Five game ahead of the next closest team! Thirteen wins a year despite constant churn among receivers and TEs, and with a rebuilding project on D. It will be fascinating to see how that team handles the transition from Brady; but they have positioned themselves extremely well. Between Mallett and Garoppolo, one of those guys can probably play QB. Remembering Matt Cassell in 2008, it's hard to believe the Pats will miss a beat when they trot out one of those guys.<br />
<br />
The top 3 just underlines why we regard those 3 QBs so highly: Peyton would be there too if he hadn't missed a year and changed teams.<br />
<br />
Continuing on down the list, the top TWELVE teams are all organizations that have had unquestioned answers to their QB question. The list really emphasizes what a tautology it is in the NFL: winning = having a solution at QB = winning. <br />
<br />
My rule of thumb is, any team with a grand total of 45 or over is doing something right. That's an average winning record, nine wins per year, in a league where winning at all (let alone winning consistently) is extremely difficult. These are the most successful organizations in the sport. The Bears are right at that line, the Jets just ahead and the Bengals just behind. Those are three interesting teams, and I think they illustrate something: perennially pretty good teams, but stuck in divisions with monsters (Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and the Ravens/Steelers). It's a tough way to live.<br />
<br />
Note technically a total of 40.5 or better represents a “winning” record, barely. That would average out to 4 yrs of 8-8 and one year of 8-7-1. I personally think that is nothing to write home about: but it beats losing. These teams in the 41 to 44 win category are in a second tier. This year it's Cincy, the Pheagles, Cowboyz and Texans. Dallas lives here, which I find very satisfying. Cincy and Philly are are good teams with one bad year of the last 5 which drags them down. They'd have to win 11 or 12 games this year to climb out of this mid-range.<br />
<br />
At the other end of the spectrum: the Brownies are an object lesson in the result of churning philosophies and leadership. They are six games behind the <i>Raiders</i> < shudder >. It seems safe to project them into the same spot next year; them or Jax. St Louis will make a big move up this list next year, when their 1-win 2009 season comes off the books. Detroit already made a big move up this year, as their oh-fer in '08 finally dropped off the books, and they will get another bounce next year (even if they have a weak season), as their 2-win 2009 comes off.<br />
</span></div>
JimZipCodehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10910763846618963025noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6518999264103251377.post-42509991299359338282014-01-16T20:13:00.000-05:002014-01-16T20:13:48.541-05:00Caldwell Apologeia<div>
So I can't say I'm too excited by the Caldwell hire. I will say
that from a contrarian perspective, I'll bet he does much better than
most people think. Sentiment is fully against him.</div>
<div>
</div>
<span id="fullpost">
<div>
Regardless though, I can't say I would have been very excited by
any of the candidates. Lovie was the only one who I liked and it
doesn't appear that the Lions strongly considered him. My dream was
that the team trade a first round pick to the 49ers for Harbaugh a la
the Belichick deal 15 years ago.</div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
But as you all can tell from the subject, this email isn't to bury Caldwell, but rather to praise him so praise him I shall.</div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
1. I've had a philosophy for quite a while, mostly with personnel
but also with coaching that if you don't trust management to make the
right pick then your team of choice has much greater problems than the
head coach. This doesn't guarantee any kind of success with Caldwell,
but it does presume that the team vetted him thoroughly and he was among
their final choices. It also presumes that management expects him to
be successful.<br><br />
</div>
<div>
2. Caldwell's coaching prowess [sic] cannot be easily
measured by the performance of his teams. This isn't an endorsement of
course, but more of a 'it's all under the hood' type of argument. He
was HC for Wake Forest and then the Colts late/post Manning. It is
notable that his first Colt team went 14-2 and lost in the Super Bowl.
You can count the number of Super Bowl coaches available for hire on
zero fingers now that Whisenhunt, Lovie, and Caldwell are gone. This
team was among the worst in the league in yards allowed yet finished 8th
in scoring defense. They also finished 7th in scoring offense yet were
a threat to go undefeated until they pulled Peyton at halftime with a
multiscore lead and a 14-0 record. This team also held Baltimore to 3
points in the Divisional round.<br />
</div>
<div>
His second year the team went 10-6 as the defense fell
apart. His legacy from his Colt tenure marked more by his mind-numbing
times out in the Wild Card game which led to a Jet FG and loss than by
the Super Bowl appearance the year before. And of course in year three
he lost Peyton, most of his games, and ultimately his job.<br /><br>
</div>
<div>
3. He isn't being asked to do a lot. This isn't a team
that needs rebuilding, it's a team that needs stability - precisely the
type of team that he's already succeeded with. The Lions need two
things right now, discipline and ... errr .. discipline. The first is
to remain collected, not do stupid things, accept what comes. Schwartz
is a hothead. A good coach, but a hothead and the team took its lead
from him, committing countless stupid penalties, often at the worst
times. Merely having a coach who preaches calm should help here. <br />
<br />The second discipline is between Stafford's ears. I think everyone
understands that Stafford has as much physical talent as any quarterback
in the league. What he hasn't developed is the mental acuity to
exploit his physical advantages. He recently told the press that he
doesn't need a quarterback guru, to the dismay of - well - everyone.
Caldwell has a great record with quarterbacks. He was quarterbacks
coach with Penn State while Kerry Collins was there. While he didn't
have much success with his QBs at Wake Forest (notable only for Brian
Kuklick) his time with Peyton Manning cannot be overlooked. While it
can be debated whether Caldwell influenced Manning's development, it
cannot be debated that merely being in the presence of Peyton had to
have helped Caldwell. I think all Raven fans would agree that not only
did he represent an enormous upgrade at OC when he came, but that he
also brought something to Flacco or at least that he was able to deliver
the offense to Flacco's skillset. If he can duplicate this in Detroit,
the team will be in the playoffs annually.<br><br />
</div>
<div>
4. He is fully qualified. This isn't a Raheem
Morris/Mike Tice type of hire. This is a guy who has been a coordinator
for multiple teams, a head coach for multiple teams. It is impossible
to argue that he's inexperienced for the job. He may be incompetent -
that remains to be seen - but if so it will be experienced incompetence.<br />
</div>
<br />5. He's black. This point really can't be underscored
enough. Black head coaches in the NFL have an excellent record
overall. The list is astonishingly short, of course, but also
astonishingly successful. Not count Fritz Pollard in 1921, and not
counting interims, there have been 15 black NFL head coaches. Of those
15 only Romeo Crennel, Mike Singletary and Raheem Morris failed to take
their teams to the playoffs at least once. Crennel and Morris both had
10 win seasons, Singletary an 8 win season. Flores, Dungy and Tomlin
each won Super Bowls while Lovie and Caldwell each lost one.
Additionally, Shell and Green (twice) took their teams to conference
championships.<br />
<br />6. Finally, he's learned. I can't prove this of course, but I
assume that everyone learns and that Caldwell couldn't have 'won' the
interview without displaying skills that he may not have had in the
past. Stafford (and Bill Ford Jr) sat in on Caldwell's interview and
Caldwell proceeded to break down film showing Stafford where he could
have made better decisions in certain spots. While Stafford may
publicly deny the need for a quarterback whisperer, everyone welcomes a
mentor when the situation presents. If Caldwell can be a mentor to
Stafford, if Caldwell can get Stafford to take that next step to
disciplined player, then this hire will be a success and so will the
team.
</span>Patrick Dhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08457532328133529987noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6518999264103251377.post-82781863397395099262013-12-07T08:54:00.000-05:002013-12-07T08:54:23.580-05:00It's AliveChris sent Zippy and I an email a few days ago. the OblongSpheroid domain is/was up for renewal and he was curious if we wanted to keep on. The last two years we've had a total of 15 blog posts, none since February.<br />
<br />
Fair question.<br />
<br />
Our fair answer was yes, of course. We have a lot of history here. And some day someone is really going to want to be called OblongSpheroid.com so why would we ever want to give that up?<br />
<br />
<span id="fullpost">I suppose though, to be a blog you ought to - you know - blog occasionally. I've noticed that most blogs go through the same lifecycle. A lot of passion followed by a period of less passionate effort simply to preserve the momentum, followed by tailing interest and inactivity. I've also seen the inevitable short-lived renaissances where the blogger will make great promises to resume blogging and maintain that pledge for a day or two.<br /><br />The fact is, without the reward of feedback (or money) it is tough to believe that our words aren't merely vapor. I think it was an advantage for use to have three guys instead of one, because at least we were reading each others' posts and commenting. We have a couple of friends who follow the blog too and occasionally post. All of this could be accomplished via email, of course, and in the last couple of years that has been our main medium.<br /><br />So here's a post. Going to keep the bar low, not promise a renaissance. Heck, won't even provide football content. Just a post about posting. A promise that the last post wasn't the last post and a further hope that this one isn't either. </span>Patrick Dhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08457532328133529987noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6518999264103251377.post-32671527296894048872013-02-05T12:00:00.000-05:002013-02-06T17:36:04.313-05:005 Year Record<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
Updated:<br />
<span style="font-family: times; font-size: 90%;">
<b></b><table border="1"><tbody>
<tr><th align="center" rowspan="2">Team</th><th align="center" colspan="6">Reg season</th><th></th><th align="center" colspan="6">Post season</th><th></th><th rowspan="2">Grand Total</th></tr>
<tr><th>2008</th><th>2009</th><th>2010</th><th>2011</th><th>2012</th><th>Sum</th><th></th><th>2008</th><th>2009</th><th>2010</th><th>2011</th><th>2012</th><th>Sum</th><th></th></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Baltimore Ravens</td><td align="center">11</td><td align="center">9</td><td align="center">12</td><td align="center">12</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">54</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">9</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">63</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">New England Patriots</td><td align="center">11</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">14</td><td align="center">13</td><td align="center">12</td><td align="center">60</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">3</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">63</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Green Bay Packers</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">11</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">15</td><td align="center">11</td><td align="center">53</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">58</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Pittsburgh Steelers</td><td align="center">12</td><td align="center">9</td><td align="center">12</td><td align="center">12</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">53</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">3</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">58</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Atlanta Falcons</td><td align="center">11</td><td align="center">9</td><td align="center">13</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">13</td><td align="center">56</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">57</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">New Orleans Saints</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">13</td><td align="center">11</td><td align="center">13</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">52</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">3</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">56</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">New York Giants</td><td align="center">12</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">9</td><td align="center">9</td><td align="center">48</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">52</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Indianapolis Colts</td><td align="center">12</td><td align="center">14</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center">11</td><td align="center">49</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">51</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">San Francisco 49ers</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">13</td><td align="center">11.5</td><td align="center">45.5</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center">3</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">48.5</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">New York Jets</td><td align="center">9</td><td align="center">9</td><td align="center">11</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">43</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">47</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Houston Texans</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">9</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">12</td><td align="center">45</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">47</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Chicago Bears</td><td align="center">9</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">11</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">45</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">46</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">San Diego Chargers</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">13</td><td align="center">9</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">45</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">46</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Philadelphia Eagles</td><td align="center">9.5</td><td align="center">11</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">42.5</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">44.5</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Dallas Cowboys</td><td align="center">9</td><td align="center">11</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">42</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">43</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Denver Broncos</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">13</td><td align="center">41</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">42</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Minnesota Vikings</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">12</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">3</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">41</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">42</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Tennessee Titans</td><td align="center">13</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">9</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">42</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">42</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Arizona Cardinals</td><td align="center">9</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">37</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">3</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">41</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Miami Dolphins</td><td align="center">11</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">38</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">38</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Cincinnati Bengals</td><td align="center">4.5</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">9</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">37.5</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">37.5</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Seattle Seahawks</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">11</td><td align="center">34</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">36</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Carolina Panthers</td><td align="center">12</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">35</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">35</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Washington Redskins</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">33</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">33</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Tampa Bay Buccnrs</td><td align="center">9</td><td align="center">3</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">33</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">33</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Oakland Raiders</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">30</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">30</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Buffalo Bills</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">29</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">29</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Jacksonville Jaguars</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center">27</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">27</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Kansas City Chiefs</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center">25</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">25</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Cleveland Browns</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">23</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">23</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Detroit Lions</td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">22</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">22</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">St. Louis Rams</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center">7.5</td><td align="center">19.5</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">19.5</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</span><br />
Ravens #1, baby.<br />
<span id="fullpost"><br />
In the table, ties are broken by postseason wins, where applicable, under the theory that one postseason win is worth more than one reg season win. It's a slightly greater accomplishment. Thus the Ravens are #1 ahead of the Patriots! Also the Jets get the nod over the Texans, and the Vikings over the Titans. Ties remaining after that are broken by the most recent reg season record, under the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately theory. Thus Packers ahead of Steelers; likewise Bears over Chargers, Broncos over Vikings, and Redskins over Buccaneers.<br />
<br />
For comparison, last season's list is <a href="http://oblongspheroid.blogspot.com/2012/07/training-camps-open-this-week-young.html">here</a>.<br />
<br />
The main reason Baltimore moves up <s>4</s>5 spots from last season, is that their 5-win 2007 season came off the books, while they posted another <s>good</s> great year. For the first time the chart includes only the Harbaugh-Flacco era Ravens.<br />
<br />
More interestingly, the Patriots stays at the top even though their Imperfect Season dropped off the chart. First, of course they had another great season. Second: the #s 2-3-4-5 teams from last year were Green Bay, Pittsburgh, the Giants and the Saints. Pittsburgh and New Orleans had mediocre seasons this year. The Packers and Giants had good seasons; but like the Patriots, they had great seasons drop off the back end of the list. Last year, the first season on the chart was Brett Favre's last season in Green Bay: they won 13 reg season games and advanced to the conference finals. They lost to the Giants, who rendered the Pats season Imperfect. So even though the Pats had 16 wins drop from their chart before the season began, the Packers and Giants each had 14 wins drop off, and couldn't catch up.<br />
<br />
My rule of thumb is, any team with a grand total of 45 or over is doing something right. That's an average winning record, nine wins per year, in a league where winning at all (let alone winning consistently) is extremely difficult. These are the most successful organizations in the sport. Note that the Chargers are just on the right side of this line, which I find somewhat surprising. Also note that the Eagles are just half a game out of this. Considering the debacle there this year, that really points out how consistently excellent even the tail end of Andy Reid's tenure was.<br />
<br />
Note technically a total of 40.5 or better represents a “winning” record, barely. That would average out to 4 yrs of 8-8 and one year of 8-7-1. I personally think that is nothing to write home about: but it beats losing. These teams in the 41-44 win category are in a second tier. It's nice to see Dallas firmly in mid-tier territory. I assume Denver is trending up for another couple seasons. Minnesota will have trouble breaking up out of this tier: they would need to win 10 and 12 over the next two seasons, just to stay where they are. Seattle and maybe Cincinnati should move into this tier next season.<br />
<br />
At the other end of the spectrum: man St Louis is horrendous. But they seem to be moving up. Detroit will get a bounce next year, as their big zero comes off the books. Even a bad record would move them up. I'm not sure who to project into the bottom spot for next season. Maybe Jax?
</span></div>
JimZipCodehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10910763846618963025noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6518999264103251377.post-54754654621915751422013-01-31T23:00:00.000-05:002013-02-06T17:51:23.480-05:00Just Happy To Be Here<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">I'm surprised how completely I'm buying in to the notion that just <i>getting</i> to the Super Bowl is a crowning accomplishment for a team. <br /><br />Most Super Bowl losers are more or less consigned to the dustbin of history. No one really gives any credit to the Panthers for a great accomplishment in 2003, or to the Cardinals for a great run in 2008, or to the Titans for being a great team in 1999. Those teams lost, and they are nothing. And that's weird actually, because the <i>games</i> those teams lost were magnificent, down-to-the-wire nailbiters. The Panthers lost on an Adam Vinatieri field goal with 4 seconds on the clock. The Cardinals lost on a thrilling last-minute TD pass in the back corner of the end zone, 35 seconds on the clock, fabulous catch, a play that was endlessly shown as a highlight all offseason. The Titans lost when Kevin Dyson was tackled one yard shy of the end zone on the final play of the game. These are games that VERY EASILY could have gone the other way, teams that were just as good on Super Sunday as their opponent. But those teams lost, and therefore suck.<br /><br />The only real exception to the “losers are nothing” rule is </span> <span id="fullpost" style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> the Imperfect Patriots, who were 18-0 going into the Big Game, and lost. Maybe the Colts of Super Bowl 3, old Johnny Unitas and Earl Morrall and Tom Matte, losing the game of “The Guarantee”. But everyone else, we forget.<br /><br />So that explains why I'm “surprised”. More difficult to explain why I'm buying it, that just getting there is a big deal: because despite all of the foregoing, I'm really excited and happy for the Ravens who have gotten to the big game. We usually vilify teams who are satisfied just to get there, but just getting there is an extremely satisfying accomplishment. These Ravens have banged their head against the conference championship door a few times in the last 5 season. Getting IN is tremendous. <br /><br />What makes it special is the two week layoff, the long pause during which you are at the very top of the game. Prior to the Ravens being part of it, I have looked down my nose at Super Bowl week and Media Day and the endless empty “analysis” and the blather & hype that goes with all of it. But now that the Ravens are in it, it seems like a humane tradition. Picture CBS playing “<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpUWnIwzmhY">One Shining Moment</a>” at the end of the NCAA Tournament, but this song goes on for two weeks. <br /><br />Ed Reed gets a piece of center stage! Have you seen how <i><b>happy</b></i> Ed Reed looks, in all his press conferences? Deeply, deeply happy. Like I've never seen him before: utterly relaxed and at peace. The stupidest questions elicit from him a fond, indulgent chuckle; and he's a guy who often seems bitter & angry when put in front of a camera. Getting the Hall of Famer to this game and this stage, in his home city, is a worthy deed. Terrell Suggs is a guy in less need of a raised platform; but he's a 10-yr veteran who's been a big-enough part of enough greatness to “deserve” a trip to this game. Matt Birk, Haloti Ngata, Vonta Leach, Marshall Yanda, Ray Rice: these are guys any NFL fan could root for getting their chance to trot onto the field Super Sunday. Joe Flacco gets to push aside all that “elite” stuff: for two weeks he <b>is</b> a Super Bowl QB, and the critics are nowhere to be found. Anquan Boldin & Brendon Ayanbadejo get to return to the Super Bowl. And yes, Ray Lewis doesn't end his career in the anonymity of a road loss in the divisional round. For the last two weeks of the football year, he is the biggest star in the NFL.<br /><br />So, getting here is enormously satisfying. These two weeks stretch out, in a really nice and enjoyable way for a Ravens fan.<br /><br />I have to admit, I'm a little concerned that just getting here BETTER be enough. Because the game itself worries me. It's a common observation that these Ravens remind of recent Giants teams, <a href="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nyg/2007.htm">2007</a> and <a href="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nyg/2011.htm">last year</a>. Scrappy teams with a puncher's chance, who heat up and make the most of what they got. <a href="http://www.footballoutsiders.com/game-previews/2013/super-bowl-xlvii-preview">Aaron Schatz writes</a>: “here we are again, with the 'mediocre team gets hot in the playoffs' conundrum.” Those teams won. But I'm afraid the Giants team these Ravens most resemble, is the one from a dozen years ago. They were a scrappy, above-average but not great team, that surprised a couple opponents in the playoffs and advanced to the Super Bowl. There they ran into a VASTLY more physical team, and they got <a href="http://media.giantbomb.com/uploads/0/966/519785-ray_lewis___superbowl_xxxv_mvp__c10053159_super.jpeg">destroyed</a>. The opponent was younger, faster, stronger, on both fronts. The game was not competitive. That's what I worry about with this game. San Francisco is younger, faster, and stronger on both fronts. <br />
<br />These two teams played 14 months ago, and I thought the Niners were younger/faster/stronger then. The Ravens only won because of the home field / travel advantage, and because they were a little farther along the program-building arc than the Niners were. The Ravens were accustumed to playing in “that game,” they did it twice (sometimes thrice) a year vs Pittsburgh; whereas the Niners were still brand new to the idea of being a great team. And the Ravens had a slightly more fully-functional offense, with their QB and OC having the whole playbook. But that was last season. The Niners have gotten better since; and the Ravens have for the most part just aged. San Francisco has had a whole year (and two conference championship appearances) to grow into the role of being a great team. There's no short week / long travel advantage for the Ravens here, both teams are a short walk from the stadium. <br /><br />San Francisco is an awfully strong team. <a href="http://www.footballoutsiders.com/word-muth/2013/word-muth-0">Ben Muth writes</a> that the best unit in football is the Niners O-line. Not the best O-line, the best unit overall; and the Ravens have been appallingly vulnerable to a strong rushing attack all season long. The Niners have an outstanding front seven, while the Ravens have been inconsistent on the O-line thruout the season. And Jim Harbaugh has big brass balls (see: <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f3mW6ERN0Fg">Veer</a>, Collin Kaepernick). There's just a lot to worry about in this game, if you're a Ravens fan.<br />
<br />
The reasons to be hopeful, for a Ravens fan, mostly revolve around what we've seen in the playoffs.<br />
<br />
</span><br />
<ul>
<li><span id="fullpost" style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Ray Lewis pointed out that the first time he, Suggs, Reed and Bernard Pollard all played together this season, was the first playoff game. Plus Haloti Ngata has been trudging along at about 80% for most of the year. Is the healthy Ravens D we've seen in the playoffs a much more capable squad than we saw during the reg season?</span></li>
<span id="fullpost" style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
<li>Have Jim Caldwell and Joe Flacco discovered magic offense sauce?</li>
<li>Is the revamped O-line a solid unit?</li>
<li>Is Collin Kaepernick still an inexperienced QB after only 9 starts? Can he be baited into some game-changing mistakes, by Mr Ed Reed? Who, by the way, will be playing in his home state. If I had to pick the one Ravens defender most ready to make an impact play…</li>
</span></ul>
<span id="fullpost" style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
Is that stuff real, or is it a mirage? Tune in Sunday. In the meantime: wow, what an awesome moment this is. Patrick wrote a nice email to us Ravens fans, late after the conf championship. It went:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
I am happy for you guys. It’s a special time, the next couple of weeks, regardless of the outcome on 2/3. I’ve been fortunate enough to be a fan of a few great teams balanced at the precipice of the pinnacle – as the Ravens are now – to know how exhilarating it is. IMO the anticipation is far more fun and rewarding than the actual outcome.</blockquote>
<br />
Sunday's gonna come fast, and it's gonna be gone even quicker. This nice, long moment is one to savor.<br />
</span>JimZipCodehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10910763846618963025noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6518999264103251377.post-83318885400168851632013-01-30T12:00:00.000-05:002013-02-10T23:55:02.767-05:00Deserve<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">On <a href="http://search.espn.go.com/pardon-the-interruption/">PTI</a> last week, the guys asked which Harbaugh boy the parents were rooting for in the Super Bowl?<br />
<br />
Kornheiser said, "The older one." John, of the Ravens. TK's thinking was, John is not the one who had the size and athletic ability to be recruited as a D1 quarterback; that was Jim. John played his football at D3 Miami of Ohio, earning a degree in Political Science. John did not get picked in the first round of the NFL draft; that was Jim. John, after graduation, went to grad school at Western Michigan and worked as a grad asst with the football team (his dad's team). John didn't play 14 years in the NFL; that was Jim. John spent 14 years as a college assistant, working his way up to the NFL. John didn't get a head coaching gig "immediately", ie in his 3rd year of coaching; that was Jim. John worked for 24 years as an assistant, college and pro, assembling a body of work, before anyone gave him an opportunity to be a head coach, at any level.<br />
<br />
I think Tony's right. Oh, not that Jack & Jackie are pulling for their younger son Jim to <i>lose</i> the big game. But if there is an ideal scenario for </span><span id="fullpost" style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">both of the brothers getting one, it's that John gets his now, and Jim brings his team back and wins next year – against someone else.<br />
<br />
Jim has a powerhouse team that should be on the rise, with a championship window just opening. He should have a chance at more of these. John's team is older at key positions; their championship window is likely closing, after years of banging their head against the door. Oh sure, you can imagine that Joe Flacco is "coming into his own" as a QB under Jim Caldwell, and they will have a championship offense for the next several years. But Joe is aleady 28, which is (just) past prime for an NFL player. (QBs have a longer prime than other players, but peak is usually age 27.) Ray Lewis is leaving, Ed Reed 34 and likely leaving, Terrell Suggs turns 31 a month into next season, and Haloti Ngata is 29. The Ravens era of championship defenses should be drawing to a close. They might have enough to reach up and play at that level one more time; but it would be a surprise to see them back on this stage in the next couple years.<br />
<br />
So any scenario for the Harbaugh parents where both of their boys win a ring, has John winning now and Jim following up in the next couple years. Plus John has a greater body of coaching work in the NFL. Of the brothers, he “deserves” it more right now.<br />
<br />
Of course, as William Munny reminds us, "deserve" has got nothing to do with it<br />
<br />
</span><br />
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</span>JimZipCodehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10910763846618963025noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6518999264103251377.post-64571416859803638722013-01-29T17:04:00.000-05:002013-01-29T17:07:00.764-05:00$100M To Study InjuriesPoop's getting serious.
<br />
<span id="fullpost"><quote>
<span style="color: #990000;">The union that represents U.S. professional football players has given Harvard University a $100 million grant for a study of the range of health problems, from brain damage to heart conditions, that affect current and former players.</span><br />
<span style="color: #990000;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #990000;">Researchers with Harvard Medical School plan to spend a decade studying hundreds of former players who are members of the National Football League Players Association, university officials said on Tuesday. The aim is to develop strategies to limit the long-term damage that players suffer from years of hits on the field.</quote></span><br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/chi-nfl-players-union-concussions,0,1529684.story">Link</a></span>Patrick Dhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08457532328133529987noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6518999264103251377.post-77533264608739497512013-01-28T02:10:00.001-05:002013-01-28T02:10:42.383-05:005 Year Record<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
Back to our regularly scheduled time, the week between the conf championships and the Super Bowl. Yes, I am particularly enjoying this list, this week.<br />
<br />
In the table below, ties are broken by postseason wins, where applicable, under the theory that one postseason win is worth more than one reg season win. It's a slightly greater accomplishment. Thus the Jets get the nod over the Texans, and the Vikings over the Titans. Ties remaining after that are broken by the most recent reg season record, under the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately theory. Thus Packers ahead of Steelers; likewise Bears over Chargers, Broncos over Vikings, and Redskins over Buccaneers.<br />
<br />
For comparison, last season's list is <a href="http://oblongspheroid.blogspot.com/2012/07/training-camps-open-this-week-young.html">here</a>.
<span id="fullpost">
<span style="font-family: times; font-size: 72%;">
<table border="1"><b></b><tbody>
<tr><th align="center" rowspan="2">Team</th><th align="center" colspan="6">Reg season</th><th></th><th align="center" colspan="6">Post season</th><th></th><th rowspan="2">Grand Total</th></tr>
<tr><th>2008</th><th>2009</th><th>2010</th><th>2011</th><th>2012</th><th>Sum</th><th></th><th>2008</th><th>2009</th><th>2010</th><th>2011</th><th>2012</th><th>Sum</th><th></th></tr>
<tr><td align="left">New England Patriots</td><td align="center">11</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">14</td><td align="center">13</td><td align="center">12</td><td align="center">60</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">3</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">63</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Baltimore Ravens</td><td align="center">11</td><td align="center">9</td><td align="center">12</td><td align="center">12</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">54</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">3</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">62</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Green Bay Packers</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">11</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">15</td><td align="center">11</td><td align="center">53</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">58</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Pittsburgh Steelers</td><td align="center">12</td><td align="center">9</td><td align="center">12</td><td align="center">12</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">53</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">3</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">58</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Atlanta Falcons</td><td align="center">11</td><td align="center">9</td><td align="center">13</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">13</td><td align="center">56</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">57</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">New Orleans Saints</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">13</td><td align="center">11</td><td align="center">13</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">52</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">3</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">56</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">New York Giants</td><td align="center">12</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">9</td><td align="center">9</td><td align="center">48</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">52</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Indianapolis Colts</td><td align="center">12</td><td align="center">14</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center">11</td><td align="center">49</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">51</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">San Francisco 49ers</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">13</td><td align="center">11.5</td><td align="center">45.5</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center">3</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">48.5</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">New York Jets</td><td align="center">9</td><td align="center">9</td><td align="center">11</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">43</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">47</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Houston Texans</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">9</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">12</td><td align="center">45</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">47</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Chicago Bears</td><td align="center">9</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">11</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">45</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">46</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">San Diego Chargers</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">13</td><td align="center">9</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">45</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">46</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Philadelphia Eagles</td><td align="center">9.5</td><td align="center">11</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">42.5</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">44.5</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Dallas Cowboys</td><td align="center">9</td><td align="center">11</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">42</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">43</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Denver Broncos</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">13</td><td align="center">41</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">42</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Minnesota Vikings</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">12</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">3</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">41</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">42</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Tennessee Titans</td><td align="center">13</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">9</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">42</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">42</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Arizona Cardinals</td><td align="center">9</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">37</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">3</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">41</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Miami Dolphins</td><td align="center">11</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">38</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">38</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Cincinnati Bengals</td><td align="center">4.5</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">9</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">37.5</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">37.5</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Seattle Seahawks</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">11</td><td align="center">34</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">36</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Carolina Panthers</td><td align="center">12</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">35</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">35</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Washington Redskins</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">33</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">33</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Tampa Bay Buccnrs</td><td align="center">9</td><td align="center">3</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">33</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">33</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Oakland Raiders</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">30</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">30</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Buffalo Bills</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">29</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">29</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Jacksonville Jaguars</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center">27</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">27</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Kansas City Chiefs</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center">25</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">25</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Cleveland Browns</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">23</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">23</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">Detroit Lions</td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">22</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">22</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">St. Louis Rams</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center">7.5</td><td align="center">19.5</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center"></td><td align="center">19.5</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</span><br />
Re positions 1 and 2: you bet your ass that if the outcome next weekend goes a certain way, I will re-post this list recalculated. The main reason Baltimore moves up 4 spots from last season, is that their 5-win 2007 season came off the books, while they posted another good year. For the first time the chart includes only the Harbaugh-Flacco era Ravens.<br />
<br />
More interestingly, the Patriots stay in the top spot even though their Imperfect Season dropped off the chart. First, of course they had another great season. Second: the #s 2-3-4-5 teams from last year were Green Bay, Pittsburgh, the Giants and the Saints. Pittsburgh and New Orleans had mediocre seasons this year. The Packers and Giants had good seasons; but like the Patriots, they had great seasons drop off the back end of the list. Last year, the first season on the chart was Brett Favre's last season in Green Bay: they won 13 reg season games and advanced to the conference finals. They lost to the Giants, who rendered the Pats season Imperfect. So even though the Pats had 16 wins drop from their chart before the season began, the Packers and Giants each had 14 wins drop off, and couldn't catch up.<br />
<br />
My rule of thumb is, any team with a grand total of 45 or over is doing something right. That's an average winning record, nine wins per year, in a league where winning at all (let alone winning consistently) is extremely difficult. These are the most successful organizations in the sport. Note that the Chargers are just on the right side of this line, which I find somewhat surprising. Also note that the Eagles are just half a game out of this. Considering the debacle there this year, that really points out how consistently excellent event the tail end of Andy Reid's tenure was.<br />
<br />
Note technically a total of 40.5 or better represents a “winning” record, barely. That would average out to 4 yrs of 8-8 and one year of 8-7-1. I personally think that is nothing to write home about: but it beats losing. These teams in the 41-44 win category are in a second tier. It's nice to see Dallas firmly in mid-tier territory. I assume Denver is trending up for another couple seasons. Minnesota will have trouble breaking up out of this tier: they would need to win 10 and 12 over the next two seasons, just to stay where they are. Seattle and maybe Cincinnati should move into this tier next season.<br />
<br />
At the other end of the spectrum: man St Louis is horrendous. But they seem to be moving up. Detroit will get a bounce next year, as their big zero comes off the books. Even a bad record would move them up. I'm not sure who to project into the bottom spot for next season. Maybe Jax?
</span></div>
JimZipCodehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10910763846618963025noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6518999264103251377.post-17781292219455080342013-01-23T15:00:00.000-05:002013-01-25T16:56:12.065-05:00Ravens CoachesThis must have hurt Preston to write:<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/ravens/bs-sp-preston-ravens-0122-20130121,0,6457054,full.column">Ravens' coaching staff deserves tons of credit for getting this team to the Super Bowl</a><br />
<br />
At least he didn't miss the chance to take credit for being smarter than the coaches on the OL switch: “The move was way overdue, but at least Harbaugh swallowed his pride.”<br />
<br />
[EDIT: Preston is utterly unwilling to let go of his idea that Harbaugh was too stupid or hardheaded to make the moves Preston wanted. In <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/ravens/bs-sp-preston-ravens-0125-20130124,0,2192619,full.column">this piece</a>: Newsome tells Preston flat-out that he did not order John Harbaugh to play Bryant McKinnie at LT:
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
“I give the coach the roster of the players to work with, but John and his coaches have the final say on the 53-man roster, even the practice squad,” Newsome said. “That's not my job.”</blockquote>
Preston actually, literally writes “Newsome said that wasn't true, but I suspect...” It's funny, and unusual I think, to see a bias so nakedly revealed.]<br />
<br />
In other Ravens coaches news, they hired ex-Eagles guy Juan Castillo. He's <span id="fullpost"> a "consultant" this week, to be Run Game Coordinator as soon as the offseason starts. Despite the debacle with the Eagles D, he has a great rep as an O-line coach. Andy Reid wanted to tab him to be O-line coach in KC, but John Harbaugh nabbed him first. Seems like a great add.<br /><br />"Run game coordinator" seems an odd position, since in the same announcement they retained Jim Caldwell as Offensive Coordinator for next season. Not many teams need a separate guy to coordinate the run game. It's true that Caldwell's previous expertise was in the passing game; but I have to wonder if Harbaugh is stashing Castillo up his sleeve, in case he needs to replace OL coach Andy Moeller. Worked out well with Caldwell.<br /><br />On the defensive side –<br /><br />I might be acting like an idiot here, given Dean Pees' resume and the results these past 3 weeks. But with the Pistol and read option coming soon to a line of scrimmage near us, I find myself wishing the Ravens still had Rex on staff. Rex never met an unusual wrinkle he didn't want to throw at an offense. I feel like he had (has) a gift for simplifying reads for his players, so that a defense which presented a very complex face to the opposing offense, was actually pretty easy for the defenders to play.<br /><br />I remember when the Wildcat first stormed the NFL, and the Dolphins absolutely clobbered the Patriots with it. (If I'm not mistaken, Dean Pees was the Pats DC at the time.) Miami hosted Baltimore a few games later. I watched Rex's press conference that week, and reporters asked him about preparing for the Wildcat. He just smirked that smug, insolent, arrogant little smirk of his, and said "Oh I think we'll be ready." Then they went out and throttled the Dolphins, allowing 70 yds rushing at about 3 ypc. (Got 'em on the rematch in the playoffs too, allowing only 50 yds rushing at under 2.5 ypc.) The impression was that Rex and his guys knew exactly how to handle that offense after about 3 mins of watching tape.<br /><br />...Of course it's also true that Rex had a Pro Bowl -level Bart Scott on that squad, along with Jarrett Johnson & Trevor Pryce, uninjured versions of Ngata & Suggs, 4-yrs-younger editions of Ed & Ray, and my boy Jim Leonhard. So it probably wasn't all "scheme". But I still feel like Rex is exactly the guy you want tinkering up a counter to a college offense imported into the NFL. Dust off Dad's old 46 D maybe, or some other twist. Staid old Dean Pees does not inspire the same confidence that we will have something special in response.<br /><br />I may be under-rating Dean. He has been around the block. (Timeline below.) [EDIT: And in <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/ravens/bs-sp-preston-ravens-0125-20130124,0,2192619,full.column">the piece that I linked above</a>, Ozzie expresses admiration for the job done by Pees.] And Harbaugh is not going to lack energy in delving into possible counters, including formation changes etc. This is just in the back of my mind.<br />
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: times; font-size: 90%;">
<table border="1"><caption><b>Dean Pees timeline</b></caption><tbody>
<tr><th>years</th><th align="left">Team</th><th align="left">Position</th></tr>
<tr><td align="left">1973-4</td><td align="left">Elmwood HS (Ohio)</td><td align="left">Asst</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">1975-8</td><td align="left">Elmwood HS (Ohio)</td><td align="left">Head coach</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">1979-82</td><td align="left">Univ of Findlay</td><td align="left">DC/Secondary (1979 D2 Natl Champship)</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">1983-86</td><td align="left">Miami (OH)</td><td align="left">DC/Secondary (coached DB John Harbaugh)</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">1987-89</td><td align="left">Navy</td><td align="left">Secondary coach</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">1990-93</td><td align="left">Toledo</td><td align="left">DC (under Nick Saban)</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">1994</td><td align="left">Notre Dame</td><td align="left">Secondary (under Lou Holtz)</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">1995-97</td><td align="left">Michigan State</td><td align="left">DC /ILB coach (under Saban again)</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">1998-2003</td><td align="left">Kent State</td><td align="left">Head Coach</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">2004-05</td><td align="left">New England Patriots</td><td align="left">LB coach</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">2006-09</td><td align="left">New England Patriots</td><td align="left">DC</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">2010-11</td><td align="left">Baltimore Ravens</td><td align="left">LB coach</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left">2012</td><td align="left">Baltimore Ravens</td><td align="left">DC</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left"></td><td align="left"></td><td align="left"></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</span>
</span>JimZipCodehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10910763846618963025noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6518999264103251377.post-16638677829255360172013-01-21T16:00:00.000-05:002013-01-25T13:25:05.015-05:00The Super Bowl! The Super Bowl!<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">
Ok, you can't contribute (even sporadically) to a football blog, and have your favorite team make it to the Big Game, and <b><i>not</i></b> post something about it! Even if I'm a little too blown away to have anything articulate to say, something has got to go down on pixel.v
<br />
Patrick sent a congratulatory email late last night after the AFC Championship game, saying that he was happy for us and that this two-week long moment is a special time. I dashed off a hurried but long & rambling response in the wee hours. Here are my disordered thoughts in reply:</div>
<br />
<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">
Thanks Patrick, that's a super gracious email.<br />
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This has been an unbelievable couple of weeks, absolutely unbelievable.<br />
<br />
And oddly familiar. <span id="fullpost"> It reminds me, of all things, of when the Maryland basketball team of Juan Dixon - Lonny Baxter - Steve Blake (and later Chris Wilcox) started to change the narrative about what you could expect from the team, ca 1999-2000. Games that seemed like automatic losses, slowly started to be won. And it changed the horizon of expectation around the team. Fatalism about a matchup becomes excited doubt: "Maybe they <i>can</i> win – ?" They do things you don't expect them to do, and you revise your expectation upward a bit, and then they do more, and you revise again. Two years later they were in the National Championship game. And they were clearly great; but you still have a touch of disbelief. They really got <i>here</i>, from <i>there</i>??<br />
<br />
The “storyline” ESPN is already selling us – and I stayed up late to watch everything on ESPN and NFL Network – glosses over what a miniscule margin the Ravens have lived on the past two weeks. That Jacoby Jones - Rahim Moore play was a miracle, and without it the Ravens don't even get to Foxboro. (The game isn't even held there.) In this game, Baltimore was doing nothing on offense, until Aqib Talib pulls his hamstring. And did Patrick Chung ever return to the game? Or did the Pats lose two starters in the secondary in the first half? Despite Ray-ray's view of God's Plan, there was nothing inevitable about a Ravens victory here.<br />
<br />
That Jack Harbaugh living room must have been a fun place to watch some football this weekend. I found myself thinking this afternoon about all the NFL teams that were looking for coaches this carousel season. I bet every one of them wishes there were a third Harbaugh brother. <br />
<br />
What if there were a third brother, and he's not on the same same page as the other two: the bad, unacknowledged Harbaugh. Picture "Jeb" Harbaugh, the lesser Harbaugh brother, something like Billy Carter. Maybe he payed football in college, got cut from his college team, started smoking a lot of weed, now he's bagging groceries. He gets a call from the Jags to come in for an interview. This thought cracked me up off and on before the games today.<br />
<br />
Flacco in his last 4 playoff games: 73 of 129 for 1159 yards, 10 TDs / 1 INT, 8.98 yards per attempt, rating 109.3. Elite enough for ya? And not against tomato cans either: Indy is unimpressive, but the other 3 opponents were New England in Foxboro (twice) and the Broncos in Denver. I'm not trying to stake a position about whether he is or is not anywhere near that good: but geez, <i>talk</i> about making a statement at contract time! He becomes an unrestricted free agent after the Super Bowl. Has any player ever increased his stock so dramatically at so exactly the right moment?<br />
<br />
And yet it's hard to criticize Ozzie & the front office for playing their contract cards this way. Sure, they expose themselves to having to offer Joe at the exact moment when his value is the highest it will ever be. But what if Joe's contract situation is part of what's driving him to be super extra sharp this postseason? “Please Joe, make us franchise you. Make it so we have absolutely no choice but to franchise you.” The Ravens can't exactly mind being forced over a barrel by this development. Crazy like a fox. The weakest possible bargaining position for the Ravens is if Joe delivers a Super Bowl MVP -type performance while leading them to a win. And wouldn't that be just so upsetting to the folks in the Ravens front office. I picture Bisciotti thinking to himself, “Go ahead Joe, make your case even stronger. Force my hand. Weaken my negotiating position. <i>Please</i>.”
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The email thread about Ray Lewis a week or so ago [about the murder trial in Atlanta] was eye-opening. I meant to respond to it; there was some stuff in there I had not known. Important stuff. I don't know the whole truth of that; and it's possible that I and other Ravens fans have been guilty of willful ignorance, in not following the testimony and taking a hard look at the possible bad news about Ray. However, let us also acknowledge the – I don't want to say "other side" of the story, let me say instead: the present day reality of Ray Lewis. Whether you can stand to hear another fluff piece about that [possible criminal] and his "leadership" blah blah blah, Ray's leadership is an observable phenomenon, like Peyton Manning's intelligence. Grown men who have spent their entire lives being "motivated" and "psyched up" by everyone from Pop Warner coaches thru high school and college rah-rah guys, men who are yelled at every day of their working lives and who <i>ought</i> to have developed some immunity to your basic pep talk, these guys are electrified when Ray Lewis brings it. <br />
<br />
The most revealing thing to me this week, was Joe Flacco's postgame last night. He was his usual monotone self; but he suddenly got animated when talking about Ray, and how he thinks Ray really wants to get back to the Super Bowl because he knows what it feels like, and he wants <i><b>“US</b></i>”, meaning Joe and Ray Rice and Suggs etc, to have that same feeling. And how neat it was for Ray to feel that way. If you were graphing Flacco's level of animation during the press conference, as revealed by his rate of speech (words per second) and the pitch of his voice, it would be his normal flatline for most of it, and then a spike up for the minute or so he spent talking about Ray Lewis, and then a slope back down to the flat line. <i>Joe Flacco</i> gets excited about Ray Lewis?? (or as excited as Flacco gets)<br />
<br />
Ray Lewis has an impact on the team members around him, and it defies explanation how much of an impact. <br />
<br />
I can't believe how effectively Ray is playing. The early-season Ray was not capable of making double-digit tackles vs playoff-caliber offenses. I have to assume that the time off due to injury really helped him get his legs back. It makes sense, actually: rest the old guy midseason, bring him back for the playoff run. <br />
<br />
Ray pointed out that he & Suggs & Ed Reed had not played together all season, until the playoffs started. Also Haloti Ngata has been struggling with an undisclosed leg injury all season, with people around the team saying he's been around 80%. The Ravens were bad on D this season; but is it possible they are a much better defensive team right now than they've been thru the season? Shades of the recent Giants teams? That would be indescribably awesome. Whatever the case, the Ravens will really, really benefit from having a week off before the next game. They will benefit more than the Niners will; and they may benefit enough to change the outcome. The game might go one way if played next week, but another way because the old banged-up Ravens get an extra week to recuperate.<br />
<br />
John Harbaugh's team has made him look like a friggin genius. His high-stakes moves for the postseason really paid off. First he goes to the bullpen for Jim Caldwell in relief of Cam Cameron with 3 games left in the season. Who fires the offensive coordinator when sitting at 9-4 and in first place??? But three games proved a nice shakedown timeframe for the new playcalling mechanics (Caldwell in the booth, relayed from the sideline). And Caldwell has shown himself to be flexible and aggressive, while simultaneously patient with sticking to the run. I've had a couple of tug-at-my-hair moments the last two games: too much conservative running in the OT at Denver, thus punting the ball back to Peyton Manning; forgetting Ray Rice at one stretch in the second half, and then a couple incomplete passes on a 3-and-out with a big lead in the 4th today, rather than trying to milk the clock. But just a couple: on the whole, the play-calling and the offensive personnel groupings have been great. Flacco looks renewed. Bernard Pierce has been exceptional as a change-of-pace back. You sure can't argue with the results.<br />
<br />
Then Harbaugh scrambles the O-line for the start of the playoffs. Who <i>voluntarily</i> changes personnel at 3 positions on the O-line for the start of the playoffs? And with no bye week! "Ok we'll play one way all season to gain experience, then when the rea games start we'll switch over to the line we expect to win with." WTF? Critics, esp Preston of the Balt Sun, have been calling for this O-line configuration (McKinney at LT, Oher at RT, rookie Osemele at LG) for months, maybe even all season long. (I think Preston may have called it before week 1.) And Harbaugh says yep you're right at the start of the playoffs?!?? It is mind-boggling. Supposedly McKinney agitated to play, and Harbaugh said "Then show me in practice." McKinney has wasted a good part of his career by not bothering to show other coaches in practice; but somehow for Harbaugh he takes the challenge and gets himself ready to play. However it happened, the revamped O-line has been tremendous. They've averaged 35 rushing attempts in the postseason, and Flacco has been sacked once a game. It's the best O-line play Baltimore has had in the last two years; maybe longer, maybe since they heyday of Jared Gaither.<br />
<br />
The boldness of those moves is breathtaking; and their success is – unusual. Both Harbaugh boys, really: the Kaepernick move looks inspired.<br />
<br />
John Harbaugh also did not hesitate to go to the emotion well. Ray Lewis timed his retirement announcement exceptionally well, to counter the Chuck Strong tide of emotion: I wonder if Ray received counselling on when to break the news. Then they have OJ Briggance come out for the coin toss last night. That is hard core. <br />
<br />
What a thrill ride. Amazing. Unbelievable.<br />
<br />
</span></div>
JimZipCodehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10910763846618963025noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6518999264103251377.post-21534501174407246182012-07-27T06:17:00.001-04:002012-07-27T06:24:59.579-04:00Turnover Margin and Predictions<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
Joe Fortenbaugh with a cool article. Usually the kind
of thing I like to research and I’m a little surprised I hadn’t thought it of
it before.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I disagree with some of his conclusions (of course) because
I think he looks too much at single seasons without looking at spreads of
seasons for anomalous numbers.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span id="fullpost">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
First the<a href="http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/How-turnover-differentials-can-predict-the-future.html"> link</a>: <a href="http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/How-turnover-differentials-can-predict-the-future.html"></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Now the chart:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<img alt="odds chart" height="545" src="http://cdn.cloudfiles.mosso.com/c1910342/media_center/images/static/total_access/Two.jpg" width="549" /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
From this it is easy to look at 3-4 year spreads and ask
“what number doesn’t fit”. For example, Kansas City’s +9 in 2010 was out
of character for them and corresponded with a somewhat improbable playoff run.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Looking at 2011 we see that Fortenbaugh highlighted
Jacksonville’s jump, but the real anomaly was 2010, not 2011. 2011 was
corrective.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
So looking at this, the teams who I would expect to be
“corrective” in 2012 would be (in order of confidence):</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
San Francisco -15.5</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Philadelphia +13.5</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Pittsburgh
+12.5</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Tampa Bay
+11</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I would normally expect Baltimore to improve by about +6 but
the loss of Suggs may mitigate this improvement a bit. I’ll leave it to
you guys to decide whether last year’s dip was merely normal variation or a
combination of weak offensive line play and aging playmakers. You’ll
recall Reed’s somewhat bizarre INTsplosion in a half season in 2010. It
could be that +2 is closer to the new normal for the Ravens.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I would like to point to Arizona. A team I already
thought was a bit remarkable, going 8-8 with no quarterback and trying to
overcome heavy losses from the ’10 offseason. Additionally we see that
their TO margin also dove. While this could directly correspond to their
personnel problems, it could also point to a team that suffered bad luck and
might be worth a couple more wins.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Finally, looking at Denver. This is an interesting
team. Made the playoffs (and won a game!) last year with an absurd run of
4<sup>th</sup> quarter comebacks. Now they’ve replaced their awful QB
with an all-time great. It is impossible to predict exactly what Peyton
will be, but it is fairly easy to project that he will be better than
Ortonbow. This is a team that could take dramatic steps forward, given
the right Manning, similarly to Minnesota in Favre’s penultimate season.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Not predicting, just predicting.</div>
</span>Patrick Dhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08457532328133529987noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6518999264103251377.post-27044963090376897692012-07-24T00:45:00.000-04:002012-07-24T17:40:30.849-04:005 Year Record<span style="font-family: arial;">Training camps open this week! Young guys report early, vets report later in the week, and the hitting starts soon. In honor of the collective return to vivid life, here is The List.<br /><br />In the table below, ties are broken by postseason wins, where applicable, under the theory that one postseason win is worth more than one reg season win. It's a slightly greater accomplishment. Thus Seattle gets the nod over Carolina & Tampa, because of the two playoff wins. Ties remaining after that are broken by the most recent reg season record, under the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately theory. Thus Packers ahead of Steelers; likewise Niners over Vikes, Carolina over Tampa, Miami over Redskins, and Oakland over Buffalo.<br /><br />For comparison, last year's list is <a href="http://oblongspheroid.blogspot.com/2011/02/5-yearh-record.html">here</a>.</span><span id="fullpost" style="font-family: arial;"><br />
<span style=";font-family:times;font-size:72%;">
<table border="1"><b><TR><TH rowspan="2" align="center">Team</TH><TH colspan="6" align="center">Reg season</TH><TH></TH><TH colspan="6" align="center">Post season</TH><TH></TH><TH rowspan="2"> Grand Total</TR><TR><TH>2007</TH><TH>2008</TH><TH>2009</TH><TH>2010</TH><TH>2011</TH><TH> Sum</TH><TH></TH><TH>2007</TH><TH>2008</TH><TH>2009</TH><TH>2010</TH><TH>2011</TH><TH> Sum</TH><TH></TH></TR></b><TR><TD align="left">New England Patriots</TD><TD align="center">16</TD><TD align="center">11</TD><TD align="center">10</TD><TD align="center">14</TD><TD align="center">13</TD><TD align="center">64</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">2</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">2</TD><TD align="center">4</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">68</TD></TR><TR><TD align="left">Green Bay Packers</TD><TD align="center">13</TD><TD align="center">6</TD><TD align="center">11</TD><TD align="center">10</TD><TD align="center">15</TD><TD align="center">55</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">1</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">4</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">5</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">60</TD></TR><TR><TD align="left">Pittsburgh Steelers</TD><TD align="center">10</TD><TD align="center">12</TD><TD align="center">9</TD><TD align="center">12</TD><TD align="center">12</TD><TD align="center">55</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">3</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">2</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">5</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">60</TD></TR><TR><TD align="left">New York Giants</TD><TD align="center">10</TD><TD align="center">12</TD><TD align="center">8</TD><TD align="center">10</TD><TD align="center">9</TD><TD align="center">49</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">4</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">4</TD><TD align="center">8</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">57</TD></TR><TR><TD align="left">New Orleans Saints</TD><TD align="center">7</TD><TD align="center">8</TD><TD align="center">13</TD><TD align="center">11</TD><TD align="center">13</TD><TD align="center">52</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">3</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">1</TD><TD align="center">4</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">56</TD></TR><TR><TD align="left">Baltimore Ravens</TD><TD align="center">5</TD><TD align="center">11</TD><TD align="center">9</TD><TD align="center">12</TD><TD align="center">12</TD><TD align="center">49</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">2</TD><TD align="center">1</TD><TD align="center">1</TD><TD align="center">1</TD><TD align="center">5</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">54</TD></TR><TR><TD align="left">Indianapolis Colts</TD><TD align="center">13</TD><TD align="center">12</TD><TD align="center">14</TD><TD align="center">10</TD><TD align="center">2</TD><TD align="center">51</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">2</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">2</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">53</TD></TR><TR><TD align="left">San Diego Chargers</TD><TD align="center">11</TD><TD align="center">8</TD><TD align="center">13</TD><TD align="center">9</TD><TD align="center">8</TD><TD align="center">49</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">2</TD><TD align="center">1</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">3</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">52</TD></TR><TR><TD align="left">Philadelphia Eagles</TD><TD align="center">8</TD><TD align="center">9.5</TD><TD align="center">11</TD><TD align="center">10</TD><TD align="center">8</TD><TD align="center">46.5</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">2</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">2</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">48.5</TD></TR><TR><TD align="left">Dallas Cowboys</TD><TD align="center">13</TD><TD align="center">9</TD><TD align="center">11</TD><TD align="center">6</TD><TD align="center">8</TD><TD align="center">47</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">1</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">1</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">48</TD></TR><TR><TD align="left">Atlanta Falcons</TD><TD align="center">4</TD><TD align="center">11</TD><TD align="center">9</TD><TD align="center">13</TD><TD align="center">10</TD><TD align="center">47</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">0</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">47</TD></TR><TR><TD align="left">Tennessee Titans</TD><TD align="center">10</TD><TD align="center">13</TD><TD align="center">8</TD><TD align="center">6</TD><TD align="center">9</TD><TD align="center">46</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">0</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">46</TD></TR><TR><TD align="left">New York Jets</TD><TD align="center">4</TD><TD align="center">9</TD><TD align="center">9</TD><TD align="center">11</TD><TD align="center">8</TD><TD align="center">41</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">2</TD><TD align="center">2</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">4</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">45</TD></TR><TR><TD align="left">Arizona Cardinals</TD><TD align="center">8</TD><TD align="center">9</TD><TD align="center">10</TD><TD align="center">5</TD><TD align="center">8</TD><TD align="center">40</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">3</TD><TD align="center">1</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">4</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">44</TD></TR><TR><TD align="left">Chicago Bears</TD><TD align="center">7</TD><TD align="center">9</TD><TD align="center">7</TD><TD align="center">11</TD><TD align="center">8</TD><TD align="center">42</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">1</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">1</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">43</TD></TR><TR><TD align="left">Houston Texans</TD><TD align="center">8</TD><TD align="center">8</TD><TD align="center">9</TD><TD align="center">6</TD><TD align="center">10</TD><TD align="center">41</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">1</TD><TD align="center">1</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">42</TD></TR><TR><TD align="left">San Francisco 49ers</TD><TD align="center">5</TD><TD align="center">7</TD><TD align="center">8</TD><TD align="center">6</TD><TD align="center">13</TD><TD align="center">39</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">1</TD><TD align="center">1</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">40</TD></TR><TR><TD align="left">Minnesota Vikings</TD><TD align="center">8</TD><TD align="center">10</TD><TD align="center">12</TD><TD align="center">6</TD><TD align="center">3</TD><TD align="center">39</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">1</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">1</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">40</TD></TR><TR><TD align="left">Jacksonville Jaguars</TD><TD align="center">11</TD><TD align="center">5</TD><TD align="center">7</TD><TD align="center">8</TD><TD align="center">5</TD><TD align="center">36</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">1</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">1</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">37</TD></TR><TR><TD align="left">Denver Broncos</TD><TD align="center">7</TD><TD align="center">8</TD><TD align="center">8</TD><TD align="center">4</TD><TD align="center">8</TD><TD align="center">35</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">1</TD><TD align="center">1</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">36</TD></TR><TR><TD align="left">Seattle Seahawks</TD><TD align="center">10</TD><TD align="center">4</TD><TD align="center">5</TD><TD align="center">7</TD><TD align="center">7</TD><TD align="center">33</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">1</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">1</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">2</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">35</TD></TR><TR><TD align="left">Carolina Panthers</TD><TD align="center">7</TD><TD align="center">12</TD><TD align="center">8</TD><TD align="center">2</TD><TD align="center">6</TD><TD align="center">35</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">0</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">35</TD></TR><TR><TD align="left">Tampa Bay Buccnrs</TD><TD align="center">9</TD><TD align="center">9</TD><TD align="center">3</TD><TD align="center">10</TD><TD align="center">4</TD><TD align="center">35</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">0</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">35</TD></TR><TR><TD align="left">Cincinnati Bengals</TD><TD align="center">7</TD><TD align="center">4.5</TD><TD align="center">10</TD><TD align="center">4</TD><TD align="center">9</TD><TD align="center">34.5</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">0</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">34.5</TD></TR><TR><TD align="left">Miami Dolphins</TD><TD align="center">1</TD><TD align="center">11</TD><TD align="center">7</TD><TD align="center">7</TD><TD align="center">6</TD><TD align="center">32</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">0</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">32</TD></TR><TR><TD align="left">Washington Redskins</TD><TD align="center">9</TD><TD align="center">8</TD><TD align="center">4</TD><TD align="center">6</TD><TD align="center">5</TD><TD align="center">32</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">0</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">32</TD></TR><TR><TD align="left">Oakland Raiders</TD><TD align="center">4</TD><TD align="center">5</TD><TD align="center">5</TD><TD align="center">8</TD><TD align="center">8</TD><TD align="center">30</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">0</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">30</TD></TR><TR><TD align="left">Buffalo Bills</TD><TD align="center">7</TD><TD align="center">7</TD><TD align="center">6</TD><TD align="center">4</TD><TD align="center">6</TD><TD align="center">30</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">0</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">30</TD></TR><TR><TD align="left">Cleveland Browns</TD><TD align="center">10</TD><TD align="center">4</TD><TD align="center">5</TD><TD align="center">5</TD><TD align="center">4</TD><TD align="center">28</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">0</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">28</TD></TR><TR><TD align="left">Kansas City Chiefs</TD><TD align="center">4</TD><TD align="center">2</TD><TD align="center">4</TD><TD align="center">10</TD><TD align="center">7</TD><TD align="center">27</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">0</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">27</TD></TR><TR><TD align="left">Detroit Lions</TD><TD align="center">7</TD><TD align="center">0</TD><TD align="center">2</TD><TD align="center">6</TD><TD align="center">10</TD><TD align="center">25</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">0</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">25</TD></TR><TR><TD align="left">St. Louis Rams</TD><TD align="center">3</TD><TD align="center">2</TD><TD align="center">1</TD><TD align="center">7</TD><TD align="center">2</TD><TD align="center">15</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">0</TD><TD align="center"></TD><TD align="center">15</TD></TR></table></span><br />My rule of thumb is, any team with a grand total of 45 or over is doing something right. That's an average winning record, nine wins per year, in a league where winning at all (let alone winning consistently) is extremely difficult. These are the most successful organizations in the sport.<br /><br />Note technically a total of 40.5 or better represents a “winning” record, barely. That would average out to 4 yrs of 8-8 and one year of 8-7-1. I personally think that is nothing to write home about: but it beats losing. These teams in the 41-44 win category are in a second tier. I anticipate Houston breaking into the next tier up next season. Maybe San Francisco too.<br /><br />The usual suspects in the top 5 this year. Man, the Packers are coming off a 15-win season, the Steelers have appeared in two Super Bowls during this span, and the Giants have *won* two – and look how far ahead of everybody the Pats are. That's really impressive. They lost their starting QB one of the seasons listed here, they're supposed to have a crappy defense, and they still averaged 12.8 reg season wins plus a playoff win over the span. Unbelievable. Next year the Imperfect Season comes off the books, so they should come back to the pack a little. Or who knows, maybe Belichick will do it again.<br /><br />Indy takes a bit of a tumble (they were #1 last year), they figure to fall a bit more over a couple seasons. Everyone knows they lost Manning, but the more important figure long-term is Bill Polian, who might be the best GM of all time. Who replaces him? I like Chuck Pagano very much, but who's picking the players?
<br /><br />If the Ravens have another of their typical Harbaugh double-digit win seasons, their win total will increase on this list. Their 5-win 2008 season will come off the books. But their peer group is tough to gain a lot of ground on: they could easily add 5 wins to their total and still move up only 1 spot.
<br /><br />Five full seasons since the Chargers let Marty go, and the reports of their demise have been – well I don't know, we see steady decline over the last three seasons, and it's not clear that AJ Smith is still making great draft picks. They had a decent offseason, for once. We'll see. <br /><br />Man, the Rams suuuuuuuuuuuuck. 3 wins per year! Nice to see the Lions finally out of the cellar. Notable that they win 10 games and only climb up to second-worst, but they have an albatross. The zero will come off this list in a couple seasons; they seem to be building to last, so they could climb fast once they lose the anchor.
<br /><br />Oakland has had two respectable seasons in a row. Interesting.</span>JimZipCodehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10910763846618963025noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6518999264103251377.post-24221382012478353432012-05-06T21:08:00.001-04:002012-05-06T21:11:04.536-04:00Will football die?Two recent articles, both of which were good and interesting, popped up in light of Seau's death. We haven't even confirmed that he's shown signs of CTE. But his suicide - only a year removed from another suicide attempt - has pretty much said everything that needs to be said to spark a new round of questions and concerns about concussions in the sport.<br />
<br /><span id="fullpost">Here's a <a href="http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/7559458/cte-concussion-crisis-economic-look-end-football">Grantland article</a> on what life without football would look like. </span><br />
<br />
Here's a <a href="http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/05/06/on-concussions-players-and-fans-cant-have-it-both-ways/">ProFootballTalk article</a> on how the game must evolve.<br />
<br />
At this point I just don't think it's outside the realm of possibility that the game of football is a shell of what it is today in another 10-20 years. Most people scoff when someone suggests that football could be dead in the coming decades. But, as the Grantland article notes:
<br />
<blockquote>
<span id="fullpost">Before you say that football is far too big to ever disappear, consider the history: If you look at the stocks in the Fortune 500 from 1983, for example, 40 percent of those companies no longer exist. The original version of Napster no longer exists, largely because of lawsuits. No matter how well a business matches economic conditions at one point in time, it's not a lock to be a leader in the future, and that is true for the NFL too. Sports are not immune to these pressures. In the first half of the 20th century, the three big sports were baseball, boxing, and horse racing, and today only one of those is still a marquee attraction.</span></blockquote>
<span id="fullpost">
The problem that I I have is, most people - including the Grantland article - believe that if football as we know it is going to die, it will be due to lawsuits financially crippling the game. I don't believe it will happen quite like that. The lawsuits I do think clearly will be the sparkplug. </span><br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
But the path I see is a bit different. And it leads me to believe that the game will be fundamentally changed some time in the next 10-20 years, and the only question left will be whether people love the game as much as they do now or not.
The path to me begins with the kids. Two Oblong Spheroid articles come to mind. <a href="http://oblongspheroid.blogspot.com/2009/10/ban-football.html">Jim wrote one</a>, linked. Patrick wrote the other, but I couldn't find it...I remember it distinctly though, because it sparked a debate in which I was clearly on the wrong side, that high school and kids' football in general would have to be significantly altered, and soon. I took the stance that the game shouldn't change, and it marked for me the beginning of a total attitude shift...I eventually landed on the right side here. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
But that, to me, is the point of main change. The lawsuits, to me, won't kill the NFL. What I think they'll do is two things.
1) They're shining light on this issue, and showing how dangerous this game is. That's going to give parents pause as to whether or not they allow their kids to play.
2) They very well may wind up pointing at the youth leagues. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Forget former NFL players suing the NFL. Imagine instead a group of parents suing high schools because their kids are showing signs of CTE.
That second point is by far the more dangerous and likely to incite sweeping changes in an exceptionally short time. But the bottom line is, I don't think it's going to take long for first the talent field to thin due to fewer parents allowing their kids to play the game, and second for schools to limit if not ban hitting, which fundamentally shifts the way the game is played at lower levels, meaning the talent is completely different at the pro level, assuming the pro level doesn't shift as well. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
At this point, claiming the game cannot possibly see a massive shift in the next quarter century is simply naive. More than that, I no longer think it's a question of if...I think it's a question of when football undergoes massive, sweeping changes. And once that happens, the question is, will the fans stay? That's the question I think no one can really predict.
</div>Chris Bhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04996455466572610983noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6518999264103251377.post-89250540903962825482012-04-26T16:34:00.000-04:002013-01-28T00:46:39.194-05:00One of the most important drafts in franchise history<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
The Baltimore Sun today says:<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/ravens/bs-sp-ravens-draft-0426-20120425,0,414954.story">With a number of needs, Ravens head into one of the most important drafts in franchise history</a> <br />
<br />
I reject that. There is no way. How can this draft be one of the most important?<br />
<br />
I'm not saying this draft is not important. <i><b>The</b></i> draft is the most critical means by which teams acquire frontline talent for the next several years. So that makes every draft important. Fail to acquire talent, and you have blown your best opportunity for a year. You've set yourself back. The draft as a process is important; so every year's draft is important. <br />
(If you click thru to the linked article, it says pretty much the same thing.)<br />
<br />
But ranking the drafts against each other, as to which particular year's draft is more important than other years? Surely this year's is one of the most <b>UN</b>important in Ravens history. <br />
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What were the MOST important draft years in Ravens history? <span id="fullpost"> Well, probably the #1 most important draft year for the Ravens was 1996, their first year of existence in Baltimore. The foundation draft. They got Ray Lewis and Jonathan Ogden. NAILED IT! Imagine how different Ravens history would be if they had gotten, say, Lawrence Phillips and Eric Moulds instead. Eric Moulds was a fine player, an excellent player: 10 years in the league, 3-time Pro Bowler, 10k yards receiving. But he certainly hasn't been Ray Lewis.<br /><br />2nd-most important draft? Tough to say, but looking back over Ravens history, their worst record after their 4-12 first season in Baltimore, was their 5-11 record in 2007. That indicates that the 2008 draft was pretty important. They got Joe Flacco and Ray Rice. I'll say "Nailed it!" again: not in all-caps this time, since it doesn't look like those guys are going to the Hall of Fame as among the best ever to play their position, but still with the same tone of voice, since those are foundational players at two critical positions. Franchise-changers, both of them. <br /><br />(Re: franchise-changers. It's easy to get caught up in a discussion about how good Joe Flacco is or is not. But it's important to note that (a) Flacco is by far the best QB the Ravens have ever had, climbing to the top of their leaderboard in every important stat after just 3 mediocre seasons; and (b) Ravens fans always wondered how well the team could do if they had just average-to-good quarterbacking. Now we know. In four seasons, they've made the playoffs every year, won a division title, and made it to 2 conf championship games. Just a couple plays from the Super Bowl both times. "Stability" is also a virtue, and Flacco has, at the very least, brought that.)<br /><br />Among other "important" drafts, I'm drawn to 2002 and 2003. Remember, in 2000 the Ravens won the SuperBowl, and then in the offseason they loaded up on old guys, trying to repeat. They failed in 2001, and endured an epic salary purge. In 2002 they fielded the youngest team in modern NFL history. So in 2002 and 2003 they were undergoing a massive and quick rebuilding/turnaround. They got (2002) Ed Reed and (2003) Terrell Suggs & Jarret Johnson. NAILED IT! They also got useful players in Anthony Weaver, Ovie Mughelli, Aubrayo Franklin and Tony Pashos. <br /><br />(Um, they also got [cough cough] Kyle Boller. That pick probably underscores a number of important points, maybe about the importance of making good decisions with first-round picks and with QBs, and about the appropriate yardstick for measuring Flacco as a draft pick. But let's move along.)<br /><br />Those drafts listed above were "important" for the team context in which they occurred. Bad teams, needing to make a change to quickly establish new "eras".<br /><br />So where does this year's draft rank in importance? Way toward the "less important" end of the spectrum. </span><br />
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<span id="fullpost">This current Ravens team holds the division title and is coming off a conference championship game appearance. Almost a Super Bowl team – really, breathtakingly close to being in the Super Bowl. In the "normal" case, their expected record this coming year is somewhere between 9-7 and 14-2. I'm assuming a "normal" amount of progression by players who were young last season (like Torrey Smith & Jimmy Smith), and a "normal" amount of erosion due to player age and free agency, and assuming that Ray Lewis & Ed Reed don't suddenly fall of a cliff in terms of their productivity. Assuming the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Injury">I-word</a> does not play too big a role. In the "normal" course of events, these Ravens will be in a dogfight with the Steelers and Bengals for the division title, the division winner will probably be the #2 or #3 seed in the AFC, two of those teams probably make the playoffs, the Ravens probably will be one of them. And that's the case no matter how this draft plays out.<br /><br />I'm not saying the Ravens don't have important holes to fill. They do. They need help on the O-line, they need a pass-rusher, they could use another downfield threat, they need a backup RB. (These holes are documented in the linked article. Which really is a good and interesting piece, I don't mean to savage it here.) Finding good players to fill some of those roles will be very important to the future success of the team. </span><br />
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<span id="fullpost">But, these are mostly just normal holes, the result of the normal wear-&-tear of having a football team. The Ravens are (knock wood) not at any kind of "crossroads" where they need a dramatic change to create a new era. They need to add some talent and keep going the way they have been.<br /><br />This year's draft is "important" the way they're all important. But it's less important than some have been.<br /><br />
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JimZipCodehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10910763846618963025noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6518999264103251377.post-36413090033903833602012-03-12T19:42:00.007-04:002012-03-13T00:36:09.981-04:00The Best Way To Evaluate The RGIII DealOne of the easiest things in the world to do is to grab an article and pick it apart in a blog. That said, I'm going to do precisely that.<br /><br />The guys from the Harvard Sports Analysis Collective wrote a fairly <a href="http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2012/03/10/evaluating-the-redskins-trade-for-robert-griffin-iii/">interesting and critical</a> analysis of the Redskins trade for the Rams' pick. Interesting, critical and wrong.<span><br /><br /><span id="fullpost"><blockquote><p style="color: rgb(102, 0, 0);">From an expected value perspective, the Redskins definitively lost this trade (to put it mildly). The second overall pick carries an expected Career Approximate Value Over Average (eCAVOA) of 435.4. The 6<sup>th</sup> and 38<sup>th</sup> overall picks have a combined eCAVOA of 525.1. If the Redskins had given up just these picks, they would have lost 89.7 eCAVOA, which is the equivalent of the 114<sup>th</sup> overall pick (the middle of the 4<sup>th</sup> round).</p> <span style="color: rgb(102, 0, 0);">If this price had been the extent of the trade, it would have been defensible. A 525.1 eCAVOA translates to a CAV of 78.7, essentially equaling Matt Hasselbeck’s CAV.</span> <span style="color: rgb(102, 0, 0);">~</span> <strong style="font-weight: normal; color: rgb(102, 0, 0);"><br />For the Redskins to get the equivalent value from RGIII as they spent acquiring him, he must produce at least as much as Tom Brady.</strong> <span style="color: rgb(102, 0, 0);">If RGIII merely lives up to his eCAVOA, he’ll finish his career having slightly outperformed David Garrard (61 CAV). Because all-time-great quarterbacks are rare commodities, the Redskins likely lost value both on paper and in reality.</span></blockquote><br />The post is worth a read. Heck, the whole blog is worth subscribing to. I would have to copy over a whole lot more than I am comfortable with to fully describe the analysis. Really though, I have no problem with the analysis such as it is. Kevin Meers (the author) describes the value of the pick in terms of the degree of talent that RGIII would have to return to make this trade valuable. To me, this is fundamentally wrong - even if mathematically correct.<br /><br />The problem with this, and with all of the criticisms of the trade, is that they assume that the purpose of the NFL draft is merely to acquire talent.<br /><br />It isn't.<br /><br />Mostly it is exactly that, but it goes beyond that to something more fundamental. The purpose of the NFL draft is to put a team in the position to win a Super Bowl. Really, that's it. That's the entire purpose of this league. So I agree with the argument that RGIII would have to become Brady to make the trade worthwhile, if the Redskins win a Super Bowl with him playing a key role some time in the next decade then the trade is certainly worth it.<br /><br />I could go further with this. The Redskins are one of the more interesting teams and have been far longer than Daniel Snyder has been the owner. Outside of a brilliant 12 year stretch they've been pretty poor, historically speaking. I believe there is an illusion that they've been more relevant than they have for a couple of reasons; one being that they happened to have their greatest stretch exactly through the period when the NFL was exploding in popularity, the other simply due to the division they are in and the opponents that they face.<br /><br />A kind of fun game to play is to couch this trade of what the Redskins' expected return on those picks would have been, rather than an average team. With Allen and Shanahan, perhaps that return is better than their historical return but regardless it is more fun to frame this in the context of this franchise's history. Counting backward from 2004, the first year where Career AV currently has any relevance, Redskin first round picks returned AVs of 33 (Sean Taylor, unfairly low), 14, 27, 46, 57, 103, 53, 0, 38, 7, 39, 18, 12, these going back to the last Redskin championship in 1991. In 15 years, the Redskins drafted three first rounders who generated career AVs greater than 50. By comparison, this year's Giants had 6 players, last year's Packers had 7. In other words, the Redskins stink at using their first rounders on players who populate championship teams.<br /><br />Looking only at quarterbacks, over the last 20 years the Redskins used the #3OA, #32OA, #25OA picks on quarterbacks while trading the #37OA for Donovan McNabb. The best player from that group was Jason Campbell who has generated a 40 carAV in 7 seasons.<br /><br />Really this trade can't be evaluated for many years. By all accounts Griffin is one of the greatest quarterback prospects in memory, with amazing athleticism, intelligence and character. Most prospects do not deserve the value that the Redskin braintrust placed on Griffin. Griffin, in fact, just might.<br /><br />Thom Loverro shares a different <a href="http://washingtonexaminer.com/sports/nfl/2012/03/thom-loverro-so-how-are-they-going-mess-one/365486">take</a><br /><blockquote style="color: rgb(102, 0, 0);"><p><span class="BodyCopy">What could go wrong?</span></p> <p><span class="BodyCopy">Griffin could stink on the field or be a problem off the field. Neither is likely.</span></p> <p><span class="BodyCopy">The guy is off the charts in all measureables in football and life. He is perhaps the fastest quarterback in NFL history. He has a cannon for an arm. He is so smart he graduated early from high school and wants to be a lawyer. And he volunteers to take care of small children in his spare time.</span></p> <p><span class="BodyCopy">He could get hurt, of course. But that is hardly a unique risk.</span></p> <p><span class="BodyCopy">The draft picks the Redskins gave away could wind up being major contributors with the Rams for years to come. But if Griffin proves as great as advertised, no one will care.</span></p> <p><span class="BodyCopy">No, the X factor in what could go wrong is not Griffin.</span></p> <p><span class="BodyCopy">It is the Redskins.</span></p> <p><span class="BodyCopy">They could really mess this up.</span></p> <p><span class="BodyCopy">In fact, based on the news the Redskins will lose $36 million in cap space over this year and next, they already may have messed this up.</span></p> <p><span class="BodyCopy">To believe that Griffin will become an elite NFL quarterback worth the high price paid by the Redskins is to believe that the Redskins won't get in the way of that development, that something inside Redskins Park won't go wrong.</span></p> <p><span class="BodyCopy">That's a leap of faith.</span></p></blockquote><br /></span></span>Patrick Dhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08457532328133529987noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6518999264103251377.post-88030759317083203702012-02-02T13:30:00.015-05:002012-03-13T18:20:14.695-04:00Regarding Cam Cameron<span style="font-family:arial;">Fans around the country might not be aware, but Ravens offensive coordinator <a href="http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2009/1027/nfl_g_ccameronts_400.jpg">Cam Cameron</a> is a controversial figure. The Ravens still, 4 years into the Harbaugh era and 4 full seasons after drafting a "franchise quarterback", still win their games with defense and controlling the football. Ravens discussion boards are wallpapered with calls for him to be fired after each close nailbiter of a win. The furor when they lose is almost unbelievable.<br /><br />The below is a reply to an email from Chris on this subject.<br /></span><span id="fullpost" style="font-family:arial;"><br />Chris wrote:<br /><blockquote>Flacco had a down year this year. ...<br />I feel like the Ravens passing game should be way more productive than it is.<br />... and I can't figure out where the blame belongs.</blockquote>For the record, I basically agree that Cam needs to be replaced. To me it's not a matter of "fault" or him clearly sucking. It's a more pragmatic, amicable split: it's been 4 years, and it mostly hasn't worked, so a change has to be made. I can make a case for continuity; but I do have to make the case for it, and you also have to keep the confidence of the locker room. I wouldn't be mad, like most fans on the Ravens board, if the Ravens kept Cam. Especially after this weekend's game. But I recognize a change is probably necessary.<br /><br />But what happens if we observe that the Ravens passing game should be more productive than it has been, and go thru the exercise of assuming that <span style="font-style: italic;">none</span> of the problems were Cam's fault? This is a logic game like something you might use if you were trying to debug a computer system. Assume that one piece is working perfectly, even if you have reason to suspect it's not, so that you can capture other contributing errors in the other interacting pieces. We can use this game to make a list of the other issues affecting the offense, and see how convincing it is.<br /><br />First, a description of the issue. Joe Flacco's yardage and TD numbers went down this season, on 53 *more* attempts than last year. His productivity rates declined: completion pct, yards-per, and TD pct. Yet the coaching staff maintained that Joe was having his best season as a pro, and it wasn't close. (Reported in interviews, I think mostly by gameday announcers.) Jaworski said he studied Flacco's plays vs the Texans in the divisional round, and found only 3 plays where he would give Joe a negative grade. Cameron, perhaps a harsher grader, said he found only 6. Both guys are professional graders of QBs, and both say Flacco played very well – on a day when he completed less than 52% of his passes for less than 7 yards-per, took 5 sacks and fumbled once. Just as the Ravens coaches are saying Joe played better this year, even thought he stats don't reflect it.<br /><br />What are these guys seeing? Is it possible to play *better*, and have your completion pct and yards-per and TD pct all drop?<br /><br />Well, sure.<br /><ul><li>First, we can see some residue of improvement in the stats. I've mentioned this all year, but it's worth repeating. Joe cut his sack pct by almost a third in 2011, setting a new personal best in that category. He was also on pace for a new career low in INT pct, which he has been steadily cutting every year since he got into the league, until he threw 2 picks against the Chargers in game 14. He still finished the season with the second-best INT pct of his career, right between his number for 2009 and 2010.</li><li>I assume that much of the other improvement the coaches are talking about have to do with things that fans can't really measure, like getting into the right play and making the right read and so forth. Let's just assume that Joe was better in these areas than he's ever been before -- I think it's probably a safe assumption, but we can't check it either way.</li></ul>Ok, so if Joe was playing the quarterback position better than he ever had before, and if we operate under our test assumption that Cam was not the problem, then what have we seen that could have caused the overall productivity to drop?<br /><br /><ul style="font-weight: bold;"><li>Youth of the receiving corps.</li></ul>This was undoubtedly an issue. The Ravens unloaded Joe's favorite targets, two extremely sure-handed receivers, and replaced them with inexperienced players. Derek Mason and Todd Heap could really catch the ball. Torrey Smith and Ed Dickson are faster, but they did not catch as well. Mason was also probably one of the best route-runners in the game, and Torrey Smith isn't. At the very least this impacted Joe's completion pct. I wonder if this ramified also. Did the Ravens have to stick with simpler formations and route combinations, to keep the offense manageable for Smith & Dickson? I don't know.<br /><br /><ul><li><span style="font-weight: bold;">No offseason to work with the young receiving corps.</span></li></ul>We said all season that the offenses that would handle the lockout well would be those on teams where the QB and receivers had already worked well together. It sounds like a fairly stupid thing to say: the QBs who would be good this year were the ones who were already good. This might not be a "strong finding", since it's what we'd normally expect to see. But the top 8 in passer rating were basically "the usual suspects" plus Stafford (Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Romo, Schaub, Eli, Matt Ryan). And Stafford had Calvin Johnson to throw to. Alex Smith snuck into the next spot on this list, but he did it on few attempts and avoiding INTs; then it's Big Ben and Rivers. That's EVERYBODY in the league with a rating over 88. There weren't anymore. The two rookies who had magnificent rookie seasons did not crack the top 14 or post a rating over 85. Ryan Fitzpatrick had high volume numbers, but a rating below 80.<br /><br />The passing offenses who weren't already established as efficient prior to this season, did not crack the top third in efficiency this year. That's a non-finding, but it can be read to support the idea that teams needed the offseason to get their passing offense in sync if it wasn't already. The three most notable counter-examples might be Cam Newton, Andy Dalton and Fitzpatrick. I'm not sure they invalidate the idea, because first of all it's not like they did any better than "average". "Average" constituted a stunning improvement for those squads, but it's not the same thing as greatness. And secondly, there might be extenuating circumstances in all three cases. Newton might be the Ultimate Weapon, Dalton is unusually skilled & composed for a rookie and has a tremendous receiving corps, Fitzpatrick wasn't that good taking the season as a whole.<br /><br />Anyway: Ravens tried to integrate a young receiving corps in a year with no offseason. It didn't come together. Ultimately that doesn't seem shocking.<br /><br /><ul style="font-weight: bold;"><li>Lee Evans injury.</li></ul>Huge. The Ravens turned this into a positive, by giving increased opportunity to Torrey Smith, and Smith really delivered. But Evans is a veteran receiver who presumably would have run better routes than Smith and had better hands, at least early in the season. The loss of Evans probably did away with much of the Ravens planned use of 3-WR sets. Additionally, if there was any effect of "keeping the offense" simple for Smith, that's a consequence of the injury to Evans.<br /><br />Evans came back and was terrible. So terrible, it's hard for me to believe it's his actual level of performance. Remember he looked like a revelation in preseason; and even in game 1 vs the Steelers when he didn't register a catch, all the post-game reportage said he played a key role by drawing coverage etc. I choose to believe that late in the season Evans was dealing with after-effects of the injury all season. I might even find a way to forgive his TD drop, in time.<br /><br />Remember, when all the writers harp on the Ravens failing to use 3-WR sets, they didn't have 3 WRs most of the year. Their #2 WR missed half the season with injury (and was horrible when he was back). Who were the Ravens supposed to trot out there? David Reed fumbled away the coach's confidence. LaQuan Williams got some snaps, looked like he could become a player but didn't really produce as a rookie. For almost the whole season, there weren't 3 solid WRs for the Ravens to use.<br /><br /><ul style="font-weight: bold;"><li>Anquan Boldin's knee.</li></ul>Boldin had surgery late in the year, to clean out the torn cartilage in his knee. He said it had been bothering him all season. He was observably less explosive than in previous years, except for the game vs the Cardinals. Did this cartilage issue slow him all season? It's easy to believe the answer is yes. He made plays when he came back from the surgery.<br /><br /><ul style="font-weight: bold;"><li>Ben Grubbs injury.</li></ul>The left side of the O-line was terrible when Grubbs was out, and it led directly to at least one loss (vs Jax, I think). He missed six games. That's a large chunk of the season. I haven't matched it up perfectly, but there was a stretch of games when Joe was getting pressured terribly and the running game wasn't working either. Does anything derail an offense worse than problems on the line? (other than a QB injury)<br /><br /><ul style="font-weight: bold;"><li>Personnel package issues, with a fullback on the field.</li></ul>I wrote to you [Chris] about this last week, that the Ravens reliance on a FB adversely impacted the passing game. Bill Walsh always used 2 backs in the backfield, and to great effect, so it's not like a FB has to cripple the passing offense. But Walsh's guys could all catch and run. Vontae Leach caught about 55% of the passes thrown to him (stats from <a href="http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb">Football Outsiders</a>), which is terrible for a back, and gained a measley 4.6 yards per reception (2.6 yards per pass attempt). He was not a positive in the passing game. And his presence on the field kept another good receiver, like Pitta (or theoretically Evans) off the field. But he had to stay in the game: he was one of the Ravens best players, and a key to the running game. We as fans insisted the Ravens run the damn ball; Leach was a key to that.<br /><br />You linked the Greg Cosell comment about "isolation routes, no bunch sets or rub routes." I wonder how much of that is a factor of the personnel package. Can you even run bunch sets with a FB on the field? Say you want to do trips right. So who are the three receivers in the bunch? Boldin, Smith, and – Dickson? That seems ok; but then do you line up Leach at TE, with Rice the lone setback? Does Leach have the size to block inline like that? Do you leave Dickson at TE, put Rice in the trips formation, and leave Leach in the backfield to block? Won't defenses key on the bunch including Rice, and ignore the run?<br /><br />FO wrote <a href="http://www.footballoutsiders.com/game-previews/2012/afc-conference-championship-preview">this</a> about the Ravens offense:<br /><blockquote>"In this era of multiple receivers and shotgun spreads, the Ravens actually run a fairly conventional, old-fashioned offense. Our charting lists the Ravens using two wide receivers on 56 percent of plays, the highest rate in the league. They run more often than they pass on first down. They like their play-action passes..."</blockquote>I'd be curious to know what Rice's rushing numbers were with Leach in and out of the formation. If the Ravens could only run effectively with Leach on the field, and he's a liability in the passing game and should come out when they want to throw; well that would seem to be a big tip-off to the defense.<br /><br />* * *<br /><br />Let me take a timeout to reference the AFCC.<br /><br />The New England game was the clearest example I've ever seen in my life of what coaches are talking about when they say an offensive game plan is "designed to win the game" rather than "designed to score points".<br /><br />That requires some explaining. I usually find it an oxymoron, to try to draw that distinction. I think we all agree that the best thing an offense can usually do to help a team win is "score points". The more the better. But we also know that there is a persistent school of thought that when you're playing against high-octane offenses, you want to "control the ball" and "control tempo" and "not get into a shootout", etc. It's a conservative brand of coaching that survives because it is fundamentally sound and works at all levels. It's "the right way to play" at the lower levels, and we've all seen teams win in the NFL with it. Even win Super Bowls; coaches as diverse as Bill Parcells and Brian Billick and Bill Cowher have won Super Bowls that way. The spokepeople who have to defend those offenses (including the coordinators who speak to reporters) all say that they weren't trying to look pretty or win style points. The offense was "designed to win the game".<br /><br />The Ravens very clearly went into New England with a team-wide game plan to "keep the game close and win in the 4th quarter". The Ravens players & coaches obviously had a healthy respect for Tom Brady, Bill Belichick et al. So defense, spec teams, and offense were all geared to playing THAT game. On offense that meant a game-plan that did NOT stress a lot of throwing to attack the Pats weakness in pass defense. That would tend to increase the number of possessions in the game and contribute to a shootout. Instead the gameplan stressed balance and sustained drives.<br /><br />Do you intentionally limit the number of points you yourself score? It seems crazy in football, but it's definitely true in basketball. In basketball, you score the most points by running the fast break, and maybe also pressing full court. But that picks up the tempo of the entire game. The other team scores more points too; the whole game is faster. The phenomenon should not be directly transferable to football, because every offensive possession has an isolated beginning. There's no fluid continuation of play. But football coaches always act as if there is a transfer; as if picking up the tempo on your own offense will have the effect of picking up the tempo for the other team's offense. I want to stress that I don't understand how that could possibly be true, <span style="font-weight: bold;">BUT</span> it is an observable fact that coaches <span style="font-style: italic;">act</span> as if it's true: as if going "uptempo" in the passing game will have the effect of increasing the other team's tempo as well, and will tend toward "getting into a shootout".<br /><br />So the Ravens went into the New England game with a clear plan to "keep the game close", and that includes prescribing a certain style on offense, which could/would have the effect of scoring fewer points than they might otherwise score. And the team executed that plan. And dammit if the plan didn't work! At least on offense. Flacco made one mistake, the D bailed him out, and Flacco in a one-score game threw the game-winning TD pass in the final 30 secs. Which didn't actually win the game, but that seems beside the point when looking at it from a planning & strategic perspective.<br /><br />If you believe that there CAN BE such a thing as an offensive game plan that is "designed to win the game" rather than "designed to score points" – I'm not sure I believe it, but I have a lot more respect for that view after the AFCC than I did before – then Cam Cameron looks like an extremely capable tactician. You can start to see how the Ravens brain trust inside the building might value Cam and his gameplanning very highly, more highly than fans do.<br /><br />End timeout.<br /><br />* * *<br /><br />That's a strong list.<br /><br />Let's say this is all true:<br /><ul><li>your #1 receiver is slowed by chronic injury</li><li>your #2 receiver misses half the season with a knee injury, and is terrible when he gets back, basically worthless the whole year</li><li>your #s 3-4-5 receivers are all rookies and inconsistent (or fumblers and locked in the doghouse)</li><li>your top 2 TEs are 2nd-year players getting their first big playing time, and inconsistent</li><li>your FB is a terrible receiver</li><li>your O-line has major holes in pass-blocking for six games (and is not really that great the rest of the time)</li></ul>If you're the coordinator in charge of generating a productive passing game out of that, what the hell do you do?!?<br /><br />It seems to me that this list is quite sufficient to hold back the passing game. We don't need the assumption that Cam Cameron sucks. Do you see? If that list is largely true, then your coordinator could be Sean Payton or any other annointed genius you'd like to name, and we'd still see less-than-awesome numbers coming out of the passing game.<br /><br />There may even be an additional allowance made, depending on where you stand on the notion of "game-planning to win" rather than "to score".<br /><br />In real life, what Cam Cameron did with that situation is, he rode his RB to the league lead in yards-from-scrimmage, he developed his talented rookie #3 receiver into a quality deep threat, he got decent "possession receiver" numbers (a thousand-yard pace) from his dinged-up #1 receiver, and he leaned on his young & inconsistent TEs for 930 combined yards and 8 combined TDs. The Ravens improved to 12th in scoring, from 16th last year.<br /><br />That's a strong result, in light of the issues listed.<br /><br />It's also worth noting that the Ravens played 7 games vs teams who finished in the <a href="http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef2011">top 10 in defensive DVOA</a>. Only 2 games (reg season) were against teams in the bottom 10. That's another boost to the idea that the Ravens offensive coordinator did a pretty decent job in 2011.<br /><br />Flacco has actually produced in several half-ending 2-min drive situations, the last couple years. He's won the game in Pittsburgh on those drives each of the last 2 seasons. I put the AFCC as another plus in Flacco's column, even though the result wasn't there. When you talk about performance in the passing game, that situation is disproportionately important. Flacco seems to deliver when called upon. That's another boost to the idea that the Ravens OC is gameplanning well, possibly "to win games" rather than "to score points", but with good situational effectiveness.<br /><br />* * *<br /><br />As I said before, I see the argument for pushing Cam out the door. He's had 4 years, there's been an investment in the offense, and there still seems to be very little explosiveness or efficiency. Sometimes you have to make a change. Plus they do seem rather plodding when you watch them play. There are an awful lot of 3-and-outs.<br /><br />But there is a case to be made for keeping Cam, and it's not insane. I would not be spitting with rage if Cam were retained, at all. It seems a reasonable option.<br /><br />By the way, one argument is frequently made, I think by accident or out of laziness. People write, "Cam's offense has sucked for 4 years," or variations like that. Let's not forget that Cam looked AWESOME in 2008. He was an important part of the train we rode to the AFCC.<br /><br />I might feel more strongly that dumping Cam was an utterly necessary move, if (a) we weren't so noticeably weak on the left side of the O-line, or if the tackles as a pair played better; (b) if the TEs could block better; and (c) if there weren't so <span style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;">goddam many drops</span> by the receivers, on PERFECTLY thrown passes! It is no exaggeration to say that the team would be in the Super Bowl if not for a receiver failing to make the play on a perfectly thrown pass that hit him right in the chest. I'd be very interested in the drop rate of Flacco's receivers vs those of other QBs this year. I don't know what Drew Brees or Philip Rivers has to deal with; it feels to me that if Flacco got "normal" catch rates on his most accurate passes, the Ravens would have gone about 14-2 and hosted the AFCC. And Cam Cameron would look a whole lot smarter, to Ravens fans.<br /><br />* * *<br /><br />Random note: <a href="http://search.espn.go.com/trent-dilfer/">Dilfer</a> and the guy who writes those "<a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/ravens/bal-five-things-ravens-patriots-012312-pg,0,7988645.photogallery">Five Things We Learned</a>" columns for the Sun (<a href="http://twitter.com/KVanValkenburg">Kevin Van Valkenburg</a>) both brought up <a href="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AikmTr00.htm">Aikman</a> as an interesting comp for Flacco. Aikman also played for winning teams that emphasized the running game, and he NEVER threw more than 23 TDs (in his 4th season, in fact). And <a href="http://www.profootballhof.com/hof/member.aspx?PLAYER_ID=254">he's in the Hall of Fame</a>.<br /><br />My respect for Aikman grew as his career went on. He became a helluva passer; deadly in the 2-min.<br /><br />* * *<br /><br />Last note, here's another excerpt from FO's AFCC preview.<br /><blockquote>"...there are some interesting first half/second half trends when it comes to the Ravens receivers. In the second half of the season, Flacco threw to his tight ends less often but had more success when he did. Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta went from 10.6 targets per game in Weeks 1-9 to 7.5 targets per game in Weeks 10-17. However, together their catch rate improved from 60 percent to 72 percent, and their DVOA improved from -1.9% to 29.1%. The other split to note is that since midseason, the Ravens have ended up using Ray Rice more as a safety valve for dumpoffs than on planned passing routes. His catch rate has gone from 68 percent before Week 10 to 79 percent since Week 10, but his receiving DVOA has dropped from 51.0% to 6.2% and yards per reception have dropped frmo 10.9 to 7.6."</blockquote><br />That whole piece is worth a read.<br /><br />* * *<br /><br />I like <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/ravens/ravens-insider/bal-ravens-caldwell-20120130,0,6036260.story">the Caldwell hire</a>.<br /></span>JimZipCodehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10910763846618963025noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6518999264103251377.post-76702303414438054602012-01-28T20:30:00.001-05:002012-01-28T20:31:35.073-05:00Brain bank examines athletes' hard hits<a href="http://www.cnn.com/2012/01/27/health/big-hits-broken-dreams-brain-bank/index.html?hpt=hp_bn1">Another good article</a> in our tradition of educating about concussions.Chris Bhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04996455466572610983noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6518999264103251377.post-6561677210901442062012-01-16T23:53:00.001-05:002012-01-16T23:54:25.770-05:00Diagnosing a Ravens offensive seriesI just finished charting the second half of the Texans at Ravens playoff game, and I want to go through the series in which the Ravens scored their final FG.<br /><br />As a season ticket holder, I attended the game in person. I have been very critical of Cam Cameron, as have most other fans I sit with. Cameron has taken a lot of criticism for this game, in particular the final two plays of this series. But after charting it, I’m not so sure he deserves the heat he’s taken. Were some of the play calls questionable? Could be. But after a long look, it’s now clearer why some of those calls were made, and I don’t think Cameron deserves the heat he’s taken over them.<br /><br /><span id="fullpost"><span style="font-weight:bold;">The Set-Up</span><br />At this point in the game the Ravens offense was ineffective. The running game was getting between zero and five yards almost every carry. Joe Flacco was under a lot of pressure. To this point in the second half alone, there were a half dozen QB pressures or sacks by the Texans, and I charted eight blown blocks on Ravens drop-backs.<br /><br />The Ravens take the ball over at their own 29 with 7:21 in the fourth quarter and a 17-13 lead. TJ Yates had just thrown his second interception.<br /><br />1st and 10 @ Ravens 29 – I will abbreviate these plays as follows: 1-10 @ R29<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">The Series</span><br />1-10 @ R29 – Rice off left tackle is stuffed for a two yard gain.<br />2-8 @ R31 – From a run formation, JJ Watt comes off Oher’s attempted block to pressure Flacco, who steps up in the pocket and finds Pitta wide open in the middle of the field for a first down.<br /><br />1-10 @ R44 – This is an important play, so I’m separating it. The Ravens are in an I-formation with Torrey Smith to the right, covered by Jonathan Joseph. The Texans are in a standard 3-4 formation. With the clock running, the Texans run blitz, throwing seven guys into the OL. The Ravens block with seven, which leaves single coverage with a deep safety. Before the pocket collapses, Flacco hits Smith on a quick slant for nine yards. The Texans sold out, Flacco read it and did a great job delivering the ball.<br /><br />2-1 @ T47 – Hand off to Leach gets the one yard needed to pick up the first down.<br />1-10 @ T46 – Another run formation, another 1st down run, another stuff by the Texans, who are consistently beating their Ravens counterparts on the line.<br /><br />2-9 @ T45 – The second important play. Here, the Ravens line up with three receivers, a classic pass formation. But the Texans don’t respond with the typical nickel defense; they’re still lined up in a 3-4 and clearly expecting run as they run blitz yet again. This time it’s six rushers (a seventh comes eventually, but not before the ball is out) on six blockers. Flacco again reads the rush and gets a very fast quick slant out to the right side, this time to Boldin.<br /><br />The Ravens are now close to if not in field goal range. With the clock ticking, it will be just over 3:00 in the game by the next offensive snap. The Texans are clearly selling out on the run at this point, not even bothering to match up with the Ravens personnel on the prior play. And probably most importantly, the corners are giving the receivers the inside slant route, which Flacco has hit twice, both times before an overloaded rush can even apply pressure.<br /><br />1-10 @ T31 – Rice rushes into the middle, this time for a gain of five yards. Houston takes its first time out at 3:04, clearly signaling they are going to make a stand here.<br /><br />This is where the heat Cameron takes begins. Fans in the stands grumble that Cameron “better not get too tricky.” I agree with them. Everyone wants to see two runs. Bleed the Texans final two time outs, work to pick up five yards; if you do it, the game is virtually sealed, and if you don’t, you kick the FG and let Yates try to drive into the end zone which he’s only done once before.<br /><br />But what I think we as fans miss is this probably isn’t the best way to play it. The first down actually holds great importance because it bleeds the clock. Assume each play takes just five seconds. With two time outs left, that puts the clock at 2:54 after the Texans take their last time out. If the Ravens don’t pick up the first, they kick on fourth down, kick off, and the Texans are getting the ball with 70-80 yards to drive, and likely between 2:30 and 2:45 to play.<br /><br />But if the Ravens pick up the first down, even on this play, it changes the time significantly. There’s a time out on the first down at 2:59. A running play on first down, then another time out at 2:54, and the Texans are out of time outs. Two plays later after third down, the clock is at the two minute warning. And not just that…because of how close the clock is to 2:40, you actually can afford to run a passing play on either second or third down (as long as you run the other down), and still get the clock to the two minute warning. These open options make offense much easier to play and improve the odds of another first down, which ends the game. And if they don’t get the first again, they kick the FG, kick off and force Yates to drive 70-80 yards with between 1:40 and 1:55 to play.<br /><br />2-5 @ T26 – The Ravens line up in a run formation, seemingly playing into the Texans yet again. The Texans blitz with six pass rushers, Ravens blocking with seven. The play is yet another quick slant to the right, the same that had worked twice previously. This time, however, Kareem Jackson did a great job getting up and jamming Boldin on the line. This knocked Boldin off the route, and the pass fell incomplete.<br /><br />3-5 @ T26 – The Ravens line up with two receivers and two TEs. But just before the snap, Rice goes into motion wide to the right, leaving an empty back-field. Rice trips on his route, and the pass falls incomplete. This play likely works and comes close to, if not picks up, the first down if Rice doesn’t fall.<br /><br />I want to cover the third down play first a moment. The situation is that the Ravens need to pick up a first down, or else the clock will be stopped with around 2:55 to play no matter what, and the Texans will still have at least one time out plus the two minute warning. This gives the Texans the ball plus 2:45ish to score a TD. While Cameron takes a lot of heat for this call not being a run, at this spot in the game, it actually makes little sense to me to not open up the play book and try whatever possible to get the first down. Perhaps he (or Flacco, if Flacco called/audibled to it) can take heat for the particular passing play being a fourth quick slant in seven plays. But running here actually makes less sense to me than passing, given the Texans’ dominance at the line of scrimmage.<br /><br />The natural fan reaction becomes “It never should have gotten there! If you run on second down, you can run on third to pick up the first down or bleed the time outs!”<br /><br />Thinking this through more, there are actually a lot of problems with this. First, with how great the Texans controlled the line, there’s no guarantee you can run on third down to have a high likelihood of picking up the first down. If Rice gets stuffed and it’s 3rd and four or more, a run is a very low percentage play, and you’re forced to pass anyway. Second, bleeding the time outs with almost three minutes to play actually carries very little value. They need more than a field goal, so they won’t need a time out to get the unit onto the field. And three minutes with the two minute warning is an eternity to drive the field.<br /><br />Meanwhile, you have to look at how the game was going at the time. At this point, Rice had rushed the ball 19 times. He was averaging just under 2.7 YPC and had only three runs of more than five yards with his biggest a rush of eight. And the Texans were selling out on the run. Meanwhile, Flacco had just thrown two successful quick slants against a ferocious rush.<br /><br />Suddenly it becomes understandable why those plays were called. The quick slant on second down seems in fact to be a pretty high percentage play. And there’s really little incentive to bleed time outs with so much time left. <br /><br />With less than two minutes to play, I think it becomes a much different story. But in that situation, I actually think the play calling was solid if not very good. And considering it took me a day of thinking about it and an hour and a half to chart it to come to that conclusion, it shows why I sit on my couch writing amateur articles for no pay, while the experts make the big bucks to come to these conclusions inside of the 120 seconds they have before the play-call has to go in.<br /></span>Chris Bhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04996455466572610983noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6518999264103251377.post-61812868874215821742011-12-13T22:16:00.000-05:002011-12-13T22:17:50.892-05:00It's Time for Sweeping ChangesIt’s time to use your imagination.<br /><br />Let’s first rewind to Thanksgiving. You’re sitting, watching the Packers at Lions game; it’s first and ten at the Lions 40 with just over 12 minutes left in the third. Rodgers drops back to pass on a drive that could put them up by two scores. But instead of completing a pass to Greg Jennings for 19 yards, Suh beats his offensive lineman and crushes Rodgers. Rodgers holds his head, is taken to the sideline, shows signs of a concussion, and sits the rest of the game.<br /><br />Three weeks later, Rodgers still doesn’t have any insight into when he can return.<span id="fullpost"> The season strolls on. The Packers lose two or three games down the stretch. They make a playoff appearance, but cannot overcome his loss. Rodgers, inexplicably, cannot make it back from his concussion, and no one knows why he can’t shake his symptoms, or when he’ll be able to return.<br /><br />Fast forward a year from now. Rodgers didn’t play in mini-camps or the pre-season. He was only cleared for contact in August. But we’re in the first week of October before he sees his first action. Out he comes to rousing cheers! One of the best young quarterbacks in the league is back! He has a coming out party his first game, completing 80% of his passes, throwing for 450 yards and five touchdowns.<br /><br />Three weeks, 1,200 yards and 11 TD passes later, Rodgers limps off the field toward the end of the game after taking a big shot. The Packers are already up by four scores in the fourth quarter, so they sit him just in case. And then on Monday, it’s revealed he has more concussion-like symptoms. He’s no longer cleared to play, out indefinitely.<br /><br />After having sat his first three seasons, Rodgers isn’t exactly a spring chicken. But it’s safe to say that people still think of him as a fairly young QB. Compare him to Brady, Manning and Brees – all in their 30s – and he still seems to be from that “next” generation. Roethlisberger is only a year older than he is, but has nearly 60% more attempts than Rodgers because he was the primary starter his first three years, and suffers several bone-jarring hits himself. When fans think of Rodgers, I believe they tend to think of him as having a shelf-life five to seven years, maybe more, beyond what these other four guys have. <br /><br />But think about this scenario. He’s been a Superbowl MVP. He’s got the active and all time highest career QB rating. He’s streaking toward an auto-entry into the Hall of Fame and making people question whether we could be seeing the guy destined to be called the Greatest of All Time. <br /><br />And just one year from now, Rodgers’ career suddenly looks to be in jeopardy from concussions.<br /><br />How would this change the game? What would it do to fans’ mind-sets? We witness the oncoming of one of the greatest players we may ever get to see play; and without warning, his career is swept out from under him. The game would survive, of course. But how would that impact the way you think about the game? How would it impact your emotions, losing such a great player?<br /><br />How big a story would it be?<br /><br />The ramifications of it would likely be huge. We’ve seen single players alter the course of the game before. David the Deacon Jones got the head-slap outlawed in 1977 after perfecting the technique and becoming one of the greatest pass rushers of all time. Tom Brady took a season-ending shot to his knee, causing the implementation of a rule where defenders on the ground cannot hit a quarterback below the waist. It only makes sense to think that the threatening of one of the greatest player in America’s most popular sport would be cause for big changes. And it makes just as much sense to think that the story would be the headline story in the sports world, not just for a day or two, but for weeks. It’s a story that would rock the sports world, and likely result in a major change of direction.<br /><br />This is the story of Sidney Crosby, and the potential tragedy the NHL now faces. The only difference is, Crosby is a far younger star than Rodgers is, and he’s more meaningful to his sport than Rodgers is to his.<br /><br />Like him or hate him, Sidney Crosby’s greatness cannot be denied. Though he’s five-and-a-half years into his career, he’s only 24 years old. But in those six seasons, he’s won the league’s scoring title, been the league’s MVP, won the Stanley Cup and scored the game winning goal in the Olympic gold medal game. At this time last year, Crosby was the league’s scoring leader again and on a pace for an easy MVP award on a major Stanley Cup challenger.<br /><br />In the Winter Classic on Jan 1, ’11, Dave Steckel and Victor Hedman hit Crosby in the head. He suffered concussion-like symptoms, and found himself out of the game for nearly a year. He returned to action Nov 21st, scoring four points and immediately sparking discussion of whether he could worm his way into contention for the scoring title by the end of the season. Less than a month later, he’s back on the bench, out indefinitely with more concussion-like symptoms.<br /><br />It’s a truly tragic story for hockey fans. We face the prospect of losing what appears to be one of the greatest players of all time in his sport. Crosby seemed to be capable of challenging The Great One himself. Now, instead of wondering how many MVPs and Stanley Cups he’ll win in his career, we’re left to question whether he should retire now. And we’re left to wonder whether the game should undergo massive, sweeping changes, in the hopes that we can ensure that if Crosby can overcome this, we don’t lose him forever, and that if we do, we ensure we minimize the risk of the same thing happening to the next great player to come along, or any of the current greats we have playing the game.<br /><br />This story should be bigger than it is.<br /><br />It’s here where I need to note that it’s a shame that hockey isn’t even half as big or as popular in this country as football is. The story of Aaron Rodgers would dominate sports headlines for a long time. The story of Sidney Crosby is a bi-line, falling behind the ESPN recap of the 2-11 Rams losing to the 6-7 Seahawks as well as two other non-NFL related stories that night.<br /><br />The true shame of this reality is that if the story were as big as it should be – if it were of the magnitude of an Aaron Rodgers-like injury – the attention it would bring to the problem of violence in these sports would likely bring about important, necessary changes. I’m hopeful that the NHL will finally begin to take a serious look at how violent the sport is, and how risky it is for all their players, including their potential all-time greats, and that it will lead to significant changes for the better. But I’m even more hopeful that we can reach that point in both of these sports prior to losing anyone beyond those that have already been lost.<br /></span>Chris Bhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04996455466572610983noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6518999264103251377.post-56951993226605483982011-11-23T18:30:00.002-05:002011-11-24T12:16:50.879-05:00Angles on Niners - Ravens<span style="font-family:arial;">Would be nice to have Ray Lewis back.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family:arial;">I think the Niners might be the most physical, bullying team in the league. I think Jim Harbagh knew exactly what he wanted to emphasize. The Steelers or Ravens are usually "that guy", but I think this year it is San Francisco. The Niners are playing better than Pittsburgh or Baltimore is, certainly better than Baltimore. Weighted DVOA says so, and so do your eyes. I'm sure the Niners are younger at some key positions – Patrick Willis has been faster than Ray Lewis for some years now – and Aldon Smith, Ahmad Brooks & Justin Smith can really rush the passer. Whereas, in addition to Ray-ray's toe issue, Haloti Ngata has been wrestling with a thigh injury for a couple weeks now.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family:arial;">Also, the Ravens kick coverage units have been terrible this season. They have given up big play after big play. Ted Ginn is super dangerous.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family:arial;">So, you know, I'm worried about this game. </span><span id="fullpost" style="font-family:arial;">The Ravens have been unraveling a bit on defense over the last couplefew weeks, and it's a powerful team coming in. Plus I looked at the Steelers remaining schedule, and I think they go 5-1 the rest of the way, the loss coming <span style="font-style: italic;">in</span> San Francisco. That means the Ravens will have to win 5 more games to win the division, and they still travel to San Diego and to Cincinnati this season. They need to win this game.<br /><br />A few points that might benefit the Ravens:<br /><br />• They are at home. The Ravens have been very difficult to beat at home over the last dozen years – I think they have one of the league's 3 best records over that span. They have thumped good opponents this season in Baltimore (Pittsburgh, NYJ, Houston). What are the Niners impressive road wins? @ Cincinnati week 3, @ Philadelphia week 4, @ Detroit week 6. (The win over the Giants was in San Francisco.) Those are good teams, but Cincy & Philly were still working out some kinks early in the season.<br /><br />• No matter how well he's managing the games for them right now, the Niners QB is still Alex Smith. I have a hard time believing he will beat the Ravens defense. <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WfsgDGHy-dQ">Frank Gore is a beast</a>, but one-dimensional teams do not typically do well against the Ravens.<br /><br />• The Ravens are used to playing in "that game". I'm assuming a certain style of hard-hitting slugfest. Have these Niners ever played in "that game"? The Ravens play it twice a year vs the Steelers, often three times a year. Plus their games against Cincy often go that route as well. Whatever quality of nerve and poise it takes to shake off a bad sack or a bad turnover, and stay in "that game" all the way until the final minute, the Ravens have demonstrated they have it. Flacco might be a lock to commit 1.5 dumb turnovers per game, but he has come right back with solid performances in the remainders of those tight games, and given the Ravens chances to win.<br /><br />• As wildly inconsistent as it has been, the Ravens offense still has more weapons with Flacco, Ray Rice, Boldin & Torrey Smith & Lee Evans, Dickson & Pitta, than the Niners offense has. The Niners have dangerous offensive players in Gore, Crabtree and Vernon Davis, esp Davis, but the Ravens have more.<br /><br />So, I dunno. I feel that there's a risk of the Niners defense and spec teams overwhelming the Ravens, scoring points off turnovers and returns. Big number for the Niners, in that case. If that doesn't happen, and the game settles in to a knock-down drag-out battle, then I see the Ravens offense eking out a TD here and a few FGs there. I don't see the Niners offense getting much of anything. Ravens 16-6, in that case.<br /><br />I think some in the Baltimore media will see this game as a referendum on how much the Ravens want to sacrifice for John Harbaugh. By "some in the media" I mean <a href="http://oblongspheroid.blogspot.com/search/label/Mike%20Preston%20is%20a%20moron">Preston</a>. He has consistently written that Harbaugh does not connect well with the team, they find him corny etc etc. I have usually found Preston unconvincing on this issue. Not "wrong" necessarily. There are 50+ guys on a football team – the number is probably well over 60 when you factor in the practice squad and guys who are out with injury but still around the facility rehabbing and participating in meetings. Sixty guys do not agree on anything. Probably any head coach "connects well" with some of the guys, is ignored by others, etc. The Ravens as an organization pay more attention to issues of personality than most teams do (they go out of their way to assess how coachable a player is, draft team captains, etc), but there is zero chance that no one on the roster rolls his eyes when he hears about "Mighty Men" etc. So, I think on any squad it would be pretty easy to find ~5 guys who are sarcastic about the head coach and his motivational tactics. Even starters. So I don't think Preston is necessarily wrong, but that he is misinterpreting or blowing out of proportion.<br /><br />But that's easy for me to say. He's actually met the players and been in the locker room. What if he's right? In that light it will be interesting to see how hard the Ravens play, what kind of determination they show late in the game, and how they celebrate with Harbaugh toward the end if they win. Suggs has already said that he can't wait for the post-game handshake between the coaches. I'd be really touched if a lot of guys are hugging Harbaugh and dunking him with Gatorade etc.<br /><br />Does Jim Harbaugh remind you at all of Cowher?<br /><br /><br /></span>JimZipCodehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10910763846618963025noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6518999264103251377.post-88028197307113660592011-10-16T09:35:00.004-04:002011-10-16T11:10:34.766-04:00LionizedI have a persistent morning amnesia. When I wake it takes me a minute or more to recall significant events from the prior day, a physiological equivalent of booting up.<br /><br />Usually this is a positive experience, however today it was soaking up the memory of the Tigers losing last night. A game I barely paid attention to after a 9 run barrage by the Rangers in the third inning. An outcome I had no immediate emotional investment in and a bitter disappointment that really only set in this morning.<span id="fullpost"><br /><br />I've read some fan posts in a couple of places about how proud we should be of this team and how happy they would have been before the season if the Tigers had gotten this far. I guess in theory this makes sense but opportunities lost are opportunities lost. This team was every bit good enough to compete for the world championship, especially after chopping down the Yankees and seeing the Phillies fall in the National League. But they are much too hurt, too slow, really not good enough defensively. They couldn't make the key hits that would have gotten them past Texas and so the season is over.<br /><br />Of course, this isn't about that but more about my current state of mind.<br /><br />Jim encouraged me to write about the Lions a couple of weeks ago when they were 3-0 and I promised to write about them when they reached 4-0. Well, now they are 5-0 and going into their toughest game to date. I hate the idea of writing this <span style="font-style: italic;">after</span> they lose their first game, and this has been brewing in my head for weeks.<br /><br />Lionized. It's a term coined by Lions fans cleverer than me, with it's genesis in Rod Marinelli's ridiculous press conferences. "We will keep digging, we have to keep our shovels sharp". We heard some flavor of this theme week after week when there was no better explanation for a team with the worst roster and the worst record marching to an historically bad season. Perhaps my favorite quote to come out of the 2008 mess came from Rob Parker who asked Marinelli 'do you ever wish your daughter had married a better defensive coordinator?' A nod to Marinelli's love of nepotism, both in his coaching staff and in his team which evolved into a collection of ex-Buccaneers who were no longer good enough to even play in Tampa, a team that had problems of its own.<br /><br />Marinelli's pressers were eerily similar to what we had heard before, from Mariucci, Mornhinweg, and Ross before him. Speculation would start almost as soon as a coach was hired, 'how long until he's Lionized?' How long until we start hearing these stultified and repetitive cliches? Usually it would take about a season and a half. Ultimately it would result in bizarre decision making. Choosing to kick in overtime. Hiring a 300 pound quarterback and starting him with two days practice. Abandoning the team's nascent franchise quarterback after only 2 weeks on the job in favor of a third stringer acquired from the Browns (Mariucci/Harrington). The list goes on.<br /><br />This brings us to Jim Schwartz. I loved the hire. This isn't saying a ton, because I also loved the hire of Marinelli for different reasons, but I did love that the Lions hired Schwartz. His pedigree was flawless with extensive experience working with both Bill Belichek and Jeff Fischer, along with their waves of coaches who now represent about a significant fraction of head coaches and coordinators in the league. I loved that he had a head for analysis beyond orthodoxy. And at the same time I hated that he would probably fail. That the roster was so lacking in talent that it was probably impossible for him to succeed within any time frame that would allow him to keep his job, that like his predecessors he would become lost and confused long before the tunnel's end showed any light.<br /><br />Sure enough, his career in Detroit did start as predicted. 2-14 his first year with the #1 overall quarterback equally ineffective and hurt. His second season starting 2-10 with the franchise quarterback appearing to play much better but at the same time even more brittle than his rookie season.<br /><br />The one thing that never happened though, was the Lionization of Schwartz. Who knows, maybe he was only a week or two away from starting to appear vexed and lost and confused like we had seen so many times before. Certainly there was cause. There was the 'complete the process' game against the Bears which rhymed with so many experiences that Lion fans have had in the past. There was the overtime loss to the Jets where Stafford was lost for the year and where the team was unable to preserve a 7 point lead in the last minute. I doubt though that Schwartz was ever that vulnerable, that close to succumbing, because it is clear that the team never lost faith, that there were never any cracks in the veneer that would have foreshadowed the wall caving in.<br /><br />And then they won.<br /><br />It was a weird win. 7-3 against the eventual champion Packers. A game where things that typically happened to the Lions happened to the other team instead. The star quarterback got knocked out, the star wide receiver inexplicably dropped the game winning touchdown. The Packers missed on scoring chance after scoring chance even while leading 3-0 for 3-and-a-half quarters. A game that nearly ruined the Packers' season.<br /><br />And then they won again, in a game that Tampa Bay needed and lost. A win that would nearly have secured a playoff spot for the Buccaneers who ultimately stayed home for the playoffs. A game where the Lions gave up a 4th quarter lead but came back to tie in the closing moments only to win in overtime. This win broke their NFL record 26 game road losing streak<br /><br />And they won again and again, the last without Calvin Johnson. What in the name of the Wide Wide World of Sports was going on around here?<br /><br />And today here we are. 5-0 with an NFL best 9 game winning streak. A team that has won this year with consecutive 20 point comebacks, the most in NFL history. A team that demolished an inferior opponent 48-3. A team that battled cramps and fatigue to beat the Buccaneers on the road for the second time in 5 games. A team that got held in check by a good Bears defense even while the crowd forced false start after false start during a national coming out party on Monday night.<br /><br />I am intensely proud of this team and the city. I am intensely proud that the fans never lost faith. <br /><br />and yeah, I don't want it to end<br /><br />Detroit is probably the most misunderstood city in the country. Any national coverage highlights the decay, the open fields where neighborhoods once stood depicted like scars with the downtown as a backdrop. Coverage invariably discusses the auto industry, the unemployment, the crime rate.<br /><br />We know. WE KNOW! <br /><br />What you almost never hear is how loyal Detroiters are to Detroit. How people who move here, often reluctantly, grow to love this city. As dysfunctional as the city had to be for decades, as much infighting between the city and the suburbs which often resembles pitched battles, we always have a unified front against usurping press that tries to reshape our story, to only highlight the bad.<br /><br />And for so many years the Lions were simply representative of the city. A bizarrely inept franchise representing a depressingly inept city.<br /><br />If that's the story though, we are also seeing that story change. Young people with no memories of the racial tension that marked the late '60s and early '70s are rebuilding the city from the inside out. Grass root businesses are springing up, lofts are getting renovated and occupied. New construction is continuous for the first time in decades. While this is the hidden inward story, the Lions are an outward face. A resurgent franchise that appears poised to join and surpass the league giants.<br /><br />So here I am. Deeply disappointed in a Tiger season that didn't go long enough. A season that maybe ended in the worst possible way. Even so, hope remains. While the seasons change and we march toward winter, it is a figurative spring for the Lions. <br /><br />And maybe they can continue to change the language. Maybe Lionized will take on a whole new meaning.<br /></span>Patrick Dhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08457532328133529987noreply@blogger.com1