One of the smartest sports fans of my acquaintance emails me after the Ravens loss to the Raiders on Monday Night Football the other night. Late in the email he says this:
Lamar also reminds me of Ben Simmons. Both have had obvious struggles when they have to shoot/pass in the 4th Q against good teams.It may not shock you that I have a quibble.
The comparison is bullshit. The notion that Lamar has trouble passing when the team needs him to – that he struggles compared with other QBs – has never been true, going back to his much-maligned rookie playoff appearance. It's false. It's entirely a creation of "narrative".
▪ In the 2018 playoff game (when Lamar became the youngest QB in league history to start a playoff game), in the 4th Q against Joey Bosa & Melvin Gordon & Derwin James et al, Lamar threw for 169 yds and 2 TDs for a passer rating of 116.5. Had the ball with a chance to win at the end.
▪ The other game they Lamar lost as a starter in 2018 was at KC. Lamar had a passer rating of 109 in the 4th Q & OT combined, with one TD.
One of the incompletions was a huge bomb right into the hands of WR Chris Moore in the end zone for the potential game-winner in OT. Moore dropped it (he was also interfered with). Lamar was knocked out of the game late in OT – RG3 mopped up the loss.
▪ In the 2019 playoff game against the Titans, in the 4th Q Lamar threw for 150 yds and a TD while his teammates dropped 7 passes.
Not a lot of examples of reg-season games from 2019 where Lamar "had to shoot/pass in the 4th Q", but there are these two:
▪ In the 2019 reg season game they lost vs the Chiefs, in the 4th Q Lamar threw for 150 yds.
▪ In the 2019 reg season game they lost to the Brownies (so, not a good team), in the 4th Q Lamar threw for 170 yds with 2 TDs.
In 2020 I think Lamar was somewhat washed after covid. His timing looked off to me, and I think they were managing his practice snaps. But obviously Lamar looked ok on Monday Night Football when he had to pass in the 4th Q against the Brownies (a fairly good team this time). In the 4th – outside of the trip to the bathroom – Lamar completed 87% with 11.8 yards-per and the TD for a passer rating of 155.2.
▪ In the 2020 playoff game in Buffalo:
Josh Allen had 5.6 yards-per-attempt for about 200 passing yards, total. Allen had the kind of game critics rip Lamar for having. Conditions were brutal: the wind interfered with Josh Allen's and Lamar's passes. And Justin mothafucken Tucker missed two FGs! That seriously should be all you need to know. MVP candidate Josh Allen led his team to 10 points of offense. Lamar had a better yards-per-attempt than Josh Allen, but he was running for his life behind awful pass pro, and eventually got knocked out of the game chasing a bad snap.
That loss to Buffalo was used as confirmation of a lot of priors. If you already "knew" that Lamar can't throw when he needs to against a good team, then that game proved it. But Josh Allen also couldn't throw thru the wind that day. *AND* Justin Tucker couldn't kick. Justin Tucker!
(Also the Bills kicker, who I've never heard of, missed two FGs too.)
The wind inhibited every scoring unit on the field that day. Not everything has to be a referendum on whether Lamar can play the position. A lot of the things that happen with Lamar, happen with other QBs too.
If you look over the list above it may strike you that I doth protest too much; missing the forest for the trees. That I'm cherry-picking a few random examples, isolated instances where Lamar had decent Q4 stats in one category or another. That may seem like a poor way to make a logical argument. The thing is, that list above represents most of the times Lamar & the Ravens have trailed in the 4th quarter! Lamar's win% as a starter is .789; the Ravens have led the league in scoring across the two seasons Lamar has been the full-time starter. There have been damn few times the Ravens have even been in that 4th-quarter-trailing situation. Ths list isn't cherry-picked, it's nearly exhaustive. (But see the next section.)
This narrative that Lamar struggles to pass in the 4th quarter when his team needs him to, is absolutely false. It's a fabrication; a misrepresentation. What has happened is that the Ravens have struggled to protect Lamar in the pocket, esp in playoff games (2018 and 2020). That has had exactly the effect on the quarterback play as it always does: same thing we saw this past Super Bowl when the Bucs beat Mahomes; or back in 2007 when the Giants beat the Imperfect Pats in the Super Bowl; or WAY back when the '85 Bears clobbered the league. Batter the QB and the passing game falters.
There *ARE* things to be worried about with Lamar. If you want to be an informed Lamar-watcher, here's what to look for.
Last season, it looked to me like the pass-pro troubles got into Lamar's head early. The first two opponents (Brownies & Texans) were bad teams with good pass rushes – the Brownies brought a lot of ressure, though they didn't quite get there; Houston sacked him 4 times. Lamar stopped trusting the pocket; and maybe he felt some pressure to justify the MVP award. You could almost see a thought balloon over his head, "This is supposed to be easy!" I think he started pressing real hard.
Approximately games 3 thru 7, Lamar looked like he was trying to make a 10-pt play every snap. Whatever the opposite is of calm efficient football, that's what Lamar was playing. He would skip easy completions, instead looking for big plays; and he would run himself into trouble. His mechanics went to absolute shit. His dropbacks were sloppy; his throwing stance was all over the place. He dirted one against the Eagles in week 6 that was a truly embarassing throw to a wide-open guys. The whole production was painful to watch. They still won three of those games, but Lamar looked bad.
Lamar finally played a good, efficiently-quarterbacked game against Indy in November. Maybe he got his head on straight? Then they went to New England and played in a monsoon. Posted a 99 passer rating, which was pretty good for the conditions. And then Lamar got covid. An eventful season.
At the deepest depths of his run of bad play, he would look at an open receiver, then double-check or triple-check before finally throwing. Hesitate. You'd see receivers slow in the window, have to wait for the ball. On one pass, Lamar threw so late on a deep ball to Hollywood Brown, that Brown couldn't catch it without going out the back of the end zone. In 2019, Lamar had been awesome in the "quick game"; decisive and effective. He lost that in 2020. Early, it looked like he didn't trust the pocket enough to settle and throw; middle, it looked like he didn't trust his eyes; late, he was post-covid and just looked overall out of sync.
So – don't get distracted by any nonsense about Lamar can't read defenses or is inaccurate or can't throw deep or to the sideline or whatever. None of that has ever been true.
(Post-covid, when he was suffering arm cramps etc, some of it may have been true. But it's not his normal state.)
Instead, look for hints that Lamar is trying to do it all himself. That he doesn't trust his pass-pro, that he doesn't trust his receivers, etc. He starts falling back on Hero Ball.
There were hints on Monday night that it might be happening. That rushing fumble might have been an occasion of trying to do too much. Also there were three or four passes where Lamar double-clutched. Not a pump fake: he started to throw and then changed his mind. Why? Without All-22, can't tell if that was a reasonable & logical reaction to something the defense did, or if Lamar was starting to hesitate again.
There were also positive signs for the Ravens passing offense. The stats look like the Raiders D worked hard to take away Mark Andrews. Passes to TEs netted just 3.3 yards per target. Maybe that explains the double-clutching? Lamar spotting an unexpected double-team, or an underneath LB or something? But on the positive side, on throws to WRs Monday, Lamar went 11 of 16 (69%) for 171 yards (10.7 yards-per) and a TD, which would give a passer rating of 124.7. Even better if you look at just the top 2 guys, Watkins & Hollywood. Lamar was a perfect 6 for 6 to Hollywood Brown. Over the offseason the Ravens have talked about the necessity for being about to attack other areas of the field when teams clog the middle against them. The game 1 WR stats might be an indicator that they're doing that successfully? Or maybe it's just a fluke.
Plays like THIS, while awesome, will not tell you if Lamar is playing well:
https://mobile.twitter.com/BaldyNFL/status/1437923008388153349
That's an Aaron Rodgers -esque play; but honestly Lamar can make plays like that in his sleep. He basically turns into Aaron Rodgers after 4 secs in the pocket. But, *having* to make plays like that all the time is evidence of a problem: either pass-pro or Lamar not throwing on time. You'll know Lamar is sharp when he's getting rid of the ball on 3- and 5-step drops, on-time (maybe with one hitch), for completions. Not necessarily every play, but often enough to keep the defense off-balance.
Last year (2020) Lamar played the worst game of his career at home against the Chiefs. Brutal, ugly, horrible game. Yards-per-attempt below 3.5! Eeyugh.
Puttting out a "Lamar has always played great in the 4th quarter!" post the weekend of their rematch against the Chiefs is a little bit of an exposed position:
- The Chiefs back-7 defenders, Tyrann Mathieu & co, have shown they know what they're doing against Lamar.
- Frank Clark is expected back for this game, against a Ravens OL that was already shaky.
- Ravens All-Pro LT Ronnie Stanley is expected to miss the game! Complications with his ankle.
- The chances of Lamar falling prey to the temptations of Hero Ball, with Mahomes on the other sideline, are alarmingly high.
The Ravens could very easily get blown off the field.
But I wanted to be on record before the game, about what we're actually seeing when the Ravens win or when they lose; what's actually happening when Lamar plays well or when he doesn't. If Chris Jones & Frank Clark are crashing thru the Ravens pass-pro with ease and living in the backfield – if Lamar is getting about 1.1 seconds to throw – then let's acknowledge that's happening. Lamar is subject to the same hits and pressures as other QBs are.
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