Something Funny Happened On The Way To A Trend

The easiest posts to write are the ones that just dissect a bunch of numbers. They can be time consuming but the actual reporting part is easy. 'hey guys, look what I found, pretty much what we all already knew anyway'.

But sometimes the numbers actually throw enough of a curve to make the game worthwhile.


So over a couple of days I rooted around with numbers from young starting quarterbacks.I am trying to determine the degree and predictability of improvement from one season to the next.

I took the group of all quarterbacks from 2000 - 2008 who had their first starting season in one of their first three years in the NFL, and then took the subsequent year for comparison. There were 13 rookie quarterbacks and 16 veterans - quarterbacks who had played at least one year without starting. The fewest starts I considered were Aaron Brooks' 5 starts in 2000.

I looked at Y/A, TD%, INT%, Comp % and AY/A.

So looking at the whole group the results were pretty unsurprising, or if they were surprising it was in the underwhelming improvement that the group of quarterbacks tend to make from their first starting year to their second. In all cases the standard deviation was much larger than the improvement, usually many times larger. In other words, the performance of year one held very little correlation to either the statistics or range of year two. The only significant gain was in completion %, an average of 2.3%. Y/A was just under +1%. Every other gain - while positive - was less than 0.1%.

The ranges were so great that actually putting numbers to them seems kind of pointless.

So since this wasn't telling me a thing I decided to break it out by true rookie seasons versus more seasoned players getting their first starting jobs. My eyeballs had already told me that rookie starters tended to have significant jumps in their second seasons.

To put it mildly I was right.

While the standard deviations remained huge, far too large to generate useful projections, the actual change in the overall trends was stunning.

Second year quarterbacks who had started as rookies saw huge jumps in all statistics. On average TD% +0.6%, INT% - 0.5%, Comp % +5.2%. Of all rookies only 2 had declines in Comp% and those two were the two with the highest averages their rookie seasons, Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan. Roethlisberger's Y2 Comp % remained well above average while Ryan's dipped slightly below.

Okay, but here's the cool part. If the overall group so almost no gain from Y1 to Y2 and the rookies saw huge gains from Y1 to Y2 what about the others? They were worse in every single category. Some declines were almost zero but there were fairly large declines in TD% (-0.4%) and INT % (+0.3%).

So what does this mean? That regardless of whether a player plays his rookie season, he virtually becomes the entire quarterback that he will be that year and that his second year statistics will accurately reflect his career expectations.

Okay, this is only sort of true. There is one more thing to look at and that is what kind of incremental gains are made by a player's 3rd or 4th starting season. By then the players who fail as starters are no longer starting and we can get a better idea of what kind of progress a successful quarterback makes from his 1st to 4th year.

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Coolidge

I don't watch the 4-letter anymore, except for games, because – well, because I can't stand it. So I missed this. You've probably seen a ton of TV coverage on this, if not there then on the Today Show or CBS News or NPR or whatever. But I just stumbled on it.

Here's your new head football coach at Coolidge High School, in DC:

That's Natalie Randolph, 29-year-old biology and environmental sciences teacher, and former track athlete (hurdles at UVa). Oh yeah, and former WR for 6 seasons with the D.C. Divas women's professional football team. Coverage from the Washington Post:

Natalie Randolph takes reins at Coolidge High
The room fell silent. Teenage boys twice the size of their 5-foot-5, 130-pound coach had no retort. Randolph, who in March became one of just a handful of women ever to be named head coach of a high school football team, pounded her thigh to show she still has some muscle from her days as a hurdler at the University of Virginia and wide receiver for the D.C. Divas women's professional football team.
When Randolph, 30, stands before her players for their first practice Friday at Coolidge, she will hardly be an unknown commodity. In the nearly five months since the March 12 announcement of her hiring attracted national media coverage, a proclamation from Mayor Adrian M. Fenty, and a spotlight on the Coolidge team, Randolph got to better know her players without the cameras present. Among her summer projects with the Colts: Organizing an SAT preparation class, implementing a complex conditioning program, and having her players regularly clean the Brightwood school's classrooms and athletic facilities. ...
On the field, her personality is atypical of the football coaching archetype; bombast and intimidation are not her usual calling cards, nor does she seek the spotlight.
...
In 2006, she began teaching environmental science at H.D. Woodson, where she also became a wide receivers coach . Even with a master's degree in education, Randolph said teaching in D.C. public schools required her to improvise her teaching methods. Students tend to equate her petite frame and high voice with someone easily intimidated.
...
"Did I think it would be this crazy?" Randolph said, "No. I thought it would be crazy for a month, then I thought it would die down."
One donation has come from the NFL Players Association for transportation for the team to spend last weekend at a camp in Pennsylvania; another donation has come from a Pittsburgh company, which is providing the team with uniforms and equipment. "We do need help in this city, and [Coolidge] isn't the only one," Randolph said. "All the media [attention] helps. The kids are going to get more visibility. The school, the city will benefit, too."

Man, she looks and sounds like a football coach.

Here's more from the Post, a different article:

Coolidge, Randolph stay focused
"There's just so much to do," she said. "I'm not even sure what to do next." Once she blew the first whistle, though, Randolph appeared in her element, running players through drills and officially beginning the season as just one of a handful of women ever to lead a high school football program.
The Colts had grown accustomed to Randolph's leadership over the summer, adhering to her detailed conditioning program five days a week. That program was a major reason they were surprised by their lack of fatigue. "We must not be human," senior Daniel West told his teammates during a water break, "because humans would get tired in this heat. We ain't tired."
...
her attention to detail and preparation were among the talents that the school's coaching search committee said set Randolph apart. It was apparent throughout the three-hour workout, notably as she ran players through a footwork drill in which they tiptoed through a ladder on the ground.
"Don't mess up my ladder," she warned players as they ran through the exercise. "Keep my ladder straight." ...

That's two articles mentioning her "complex" or "detailed" conditioning program, which I find notable.

Here's two pieces on her hiring back in March. One:

Natalie Randolph to coach Coolidge High School football team
In Natalie Randolph's first season as wide receivers coach at H.D. Woodson High School in the District a few years ago, one of the most difficult moments each week came at the end of the game when the two teams lined up for their traditional handshake.

"I hate shaking hands," she said at the time, "because they walk right past me and don't realize I'm a coach."
...
Randolph, a 1998 graduate of Sidwell Friends and former sprinter at the University of Virginia, is hardly a football newbie. She was a receiver for the Divas of the Independent Women's Professional League from 2004 to 2008 and an assistant at H.D. Woodson in 2006 and '07. She joined the Coolidge faculty in 2008 but has not coached the previous two seasons.

"She can do it," said H.D. Woodson Coach Greg Fuller, who hired Randolph as an assistant in 2006. "She's a no-nonsense kind of coach. She's a disciplinarian. She handled [the questions about being a woman coaching football] very well because she takes on any challenge you put in front of her."

No one is believed to have kept records on the number of women who have coached football in the United States, although the number is small. According to Sydney Chambers of the Clell Wade Coaches Directory, which maintains a database of all coaches at U.S. colleges, high schools and junior high schools, there was no woman listed among the 15,675 public or private high school football coaches last season.
...
Randolph was introduced to the Coolidge team after school on Tuesday, according to a person who was at the meeting. The boys on the team displayed some initial skepticism, this person said, but Randolph won them over.

"Some of the kids tried to test her knowledge of football, and she just shot them down," said the individual, who asked not to be identified because school officials requested that the information not be made public until Friday. "At the end, they were clapping for her. They didn't know she played football."

While Randolph had the power to discipline the players on the H.D. Woodson team when she was an assistant, she said she had to work harder to establish herself with the other coaches on the Warriors' staff. "After the first week, I had more apprehension about the other coaches than about the players," she told The Post in 2006. "It was about proving myself to the other coaches."

Two:

DC High School Appoints First Female Football Coach
She stood out among the more than 15 applicants, who include former N.F.L. players, Pop Warner coaches and even a retired Army general, because she promised to help the players in the classroom as much as on the field. Calvin Coolidge Senior High School consistently battles academic records that are less than stellar and Randolph brings to the table structure and discipline.

Makes a great point about her academic background. I also like the bit about the SAT prep class (first article), and her quote about how the media attention can mean help for the school and/or the District. She really sounds like a coach who is focused on all the right things.

When we look at the NFL coaching carousel, I give succeed-or-fail predictions, and one of the things I usually note is the asst coaches on staff. That's completely inappropriate for a high school coach: for a number or reasons, but mostly because (as her own quotes indicate) winning and losing are not the main criteria for judging a HS coach's success. However, along the lines of the Carousel, let's note who she has as OL coach:

Baltimore Examiner
Since becoming head coach, Randolph has taken on seven volunteer assistant coaches, including D.C. legend, Bob Headen, who retired after 25 years as the head football coach at Woodson, where he won eight championships and sent a handful of players into the NFL. "I told her I would mentor her and I would coach the line," Headen said. "Look at her background. She went to a prestigious school (Virginia) and she earned a scholarship. She was not handed one. And she's got six years of professional football. She's got the experience.

When you have a legendary head coach serving as your O-line coach, that's a powerful asset.

Coolidge's first game is Aug. 27 against Archbishop Carroll. Go Colts!

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Albert Haynesworth Is A Gol Dang Genius

Well, maybe he isn't a genius, but geniuses around the NFL should have their ears perked up at the current events in DC.

Okay, so all football fans are aware of the current impasse between Mike Shanahan and Albert Haynesworth. To recap, Haynesworth has to pass a conditioning test that (supposedly) all defensive linemen have to pass, however any who participated in the offseason program are exempted. So really, this is a test for Big Albert. Or at least maybe it is.

Wright also clarified why Haynesworth is the only player on the team that has to take the "test."

"It’s actually not a test for everybody on the team. The guys that were under 50 percent [participation in OTAs] were notified that they got to get over 50 percent, or there’s a test. I think Andre Carter was close, Rocky McIntosh was close, so we let them know. [Now], they’re over 50 percent. But our team is so high – we’re 90.4-percent [participation] as a team – so nobody was in danger of having to do a test," he said.

However, when asked whether this was then a "Haynesworth test," Wright said "No, it’s not a Haynesworth test. It’s a test for anybody under 50 percent attendance or less. He was the only guy."

In the same article DeAngelo Hall opined that offseason program participation or no, not many Redskins could have passed the test.

Ivan Carter, a former D-III football player and reporter for CNS Washington ran the drill and completed each component with about 5 seconds to spare.


I disagree with his opinion that if he could do it, Haynesworth should have no problem. Maybe that's true but one look at Carter shows a much different body than the one that Albert has to haul around.

Thing with Haynesworth though, is if he doesn't want to participate in training camp, all he has to do is not pass the test. Easy. He doesn't get fined, he doesn't get jailed, he won't be cut. He got stuck on the treadmill for a couple of days for less than an hour. That's it. For a #325 guy, that must beat 6 hours working out in 90 degree heat.

Apparently, Shanahan is trying to make an example out of Haynesworth but this whole thing is already blowing up in his face. I hope that the next time Haynesworth takes the test he does it with a hot dog in his hand.

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Rookie Playoff Quarterbacks And Mark Sanchez' Place

Something happened on Mark Sanchez' way to a pretty disappointing rookie season. The Playoffs.

Yeah, I know, Mark Sanchez was named NFL rookie of the week for 16 straight weeks or something. It was a farce. A facade.

I looked into Sanchez playoff record relative to other rookie quarterbacks a couple of weeks ago - which I will get to momentarily - but decided to wait for Football Outsiders' Almanac before posting about it, since I thought there was a reasonable chance they would have addressed it. They didn't so I will.

I bring this up though, because I am glad I waited. FO published the most comparable rookie quarterbacks to Sanchez. It isn't a flattering list. While some of the players later on the list turned out to be great quarterbacks, including Aikman and Elway (neither of whom had good rookie years) his closest comparables had short and unimpressive careers, topped by Jamarcus Russell.

Make no mistake, Sanchez was awful in the regular season, and his awfulness was a bit masked by the otherwise outstanding team that was assembled around him. The Jets had the fewest passing attempts in the league, and not the fewest by a little but the fewest by a lot. New York attempted 391 passes, the second fewest came from Buffalo with 441. The league median was around 540. So with 150 fewer attempts than over half the league (that's 9 per game, boys and girls) one would think that defenses would be keying the run, that his looks would be good. But even with that huge advantage, Sanchez was one of the worst quarterbacks in the league, and his awfulness very nearly sabotaged the Jets playoff run.

But he did get to the playoffs and somehow this ugly old worm transformed itself into a beautiful butterfly.

Opponent	Cmp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Rate
Cincinnati	12	15	182	1	0	139.4
San Diego	12	23	100	1	1	60.1
Indianapolis	17	30	257	2	1	93.3
Totals	41	69	539	4	2	92.7

That 93 rating would have put him 13th overall for the 2009 season, slightly behind Kurt Warner, Eli Manning and Donovan McNabb. More impressively though, he did it under the bright lights of the playoffs against teams that finished 7th, 17th and 12th in pass defense.

There haven't been many teams recently who made the playoffs with a rookie quarterback but it is still interesting to compare with those that did. In fact this is the whole point of this thing.

Going back to 1983 only 5 teams have made the playoffs with rookie quarterbacks, 4 of them this decade and Dan Marino.

Player	Games	Cmp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Rate
Joe Flacco	3	33	75	437	1	3	50.8
Matt Ryan	1	26	40	199	2	2	72.8
Ben Roethlisberger	2	31	54	407	3	5	61.3
Dan Marino	1	15	25	193	2	2	77.6

So what do we make of this? It's hard to say for sure, except that Sanchez' performance in the playoffs was historically great, certainly the greatest post season in the last 30 years. Add in that regardless of how he got there, he is among excellent company. Anyone watching the AFC Championship could tell that this was no fluke either, with Sanchez poised and confident.

Quarterbacks either get it or they don't. They can either make plays or they can't. While it would be unprecedented for Sanchez to advance from the season he had to a place among the league elite in one year, it does appear that the playoffs were his 'Drew Brees' moment. The lights came on, the game slowed down, he got it.

FO doesn't expect great things from this year's Jet team, and they are probably right. The one thing they appeared to underestimate though is the progression of any rookie quarterback from his first to his second season. They always improve. Often that improvement is incremental and doesn't mean much in the big picture, but with that playoff run in his pocket we should have every expectation that Sanchez will no longer be a liability, and that his performance gain should offset losses elsewhere.

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Is this even possible?

We were talking about Strength & Conditioning last week. From the Baltimore Sun:

Zbikowski poised to take next step for Ravens

While Ed Reed rehabilitates his surgically reconstructed hip, Zbikowski, 25, will likely get the first shot at replacing the team's Pro Bowl free safety. ... If passing camps meant anything, Zbikowski is ready to step in. He showed better quickness and more understanding of the defense this summer than in either of his previous two seasons with the Ravens.
...
The Arlington Heights, Ill., native headed back to his offseason training haunt, the Turner Pain and Wellness Center in Naperville, Ill. There, he told owner Mark Turner he needed to address several self-described deficiencies, including change of direction, acceleration and jumping ability.
"This was probably the first year he was honest with himself in what he needed to improve upon," Turner said. "He felt like he was 3 inches away from a lot of big plays last year. He has really grown up this year and taken responsibility."
Turner put Zbikowski through an exotic routine of plyometrics and functional sport- and position-specific exercises. Turner said Zbikowski increased his vertical jump by nearly 8 inches. "Before, he couldn't touch the rim," Turner said. "Now he can dunk." Zbikowski also wanted to strengthen his neck and improve his durability in case he gets to return punts this season. He added 21/2 inches to his neck, Turner said. ...
"Tom trained like a beast in the offseason," Pagano said. "He's leaner than he's ever been. He's explosive. He's got great range. You see the instincts, you see the ball skills, so I'm sure glad we got the kid."

Wait. Is it even possible to add 8 inches to the vertical leap of a conditioned athlete?

It's easy for a non-conditioned guy (like say, me) to make great strides on a S&C program. Heck, any strength coach who can get my vertical leap up to 8-1/2 inches will have added 8 inches to it. But Zbikowski was already a professional athlete. There's no way, is there? If this guy Turner can add 8 inches to someone's vertical leap, every pro athlete in the country would be banging down his door.

Zbikowski has so far in his career been just another big-hitting-but-slow safety. Smart, fundamentally sound, not a playmaker. But what if he's completely transformed himself as a player? The work has already paid off some. This past May the Sun was writing about a big difference in him during OTA's:

Zbikowski gets up to speed
It wasn't just one play, either. Overall, Zbikowski looked quicker and smoother in the drills. That wasn't by accident. Since the season ended, the former Notre Dame star has been working on his vertical leap "to get an extra spring in my step," he said. His idea, he said. "It's a game of speed."
...
Zbikowski has already shown the defense can count on him. With his new "burst" ...
And Zbikowski hasn't sacrificed muscle at the expense of his new-found speed, either. He played at 192 pounds last year. This camp, he weighed 200.

What an illustration of the impact of a S&C program on a player. Can't wait to see him this preseason.

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Coaching Carousel

ROOKIES REPORT!!!! Training camp is here! The long dark interregnum of baseball is nearly over. The Hall of Fame game is in 12 days, other preseason games the weekend after.

'Bout time we looked at the Carousel, huh?

A year ago, fully one third of the league's coaches were all new. After all that upheaval, a much smaller group this year:

Team	New Coach	Formerly
Seattle	Pete Carroll	USC HC; Patriots HC
Buffalo	Chan Gailey	Cowboys HC; Ga Tech HC; misc OC
Redskins	Mike Shanahan	Broncos HC; star OC

Our task with these guys is to divide them into three groups, based on whether they will Succeed, Fail, or Muddle Along Respectably. Interestingly, all three of them have winning records as NFL head coaches, which has got to be unusual for classes of rookie coaches. That ought to make it easy to project success for all of them, right?

Succeed

No. None of them will succeed. Move along, nothing to see here.


Fail

Chan Gailey
Buffalo; formerly Cowboys HC, Ga Tech HC, misc OC

First, let's get a handle on exactly how preposterously arrogant this judgment is. Chan Gailey has about 35 years experience as a football coach, college and pro, including experience as a head coach, college and pro. He has a winning record as an NFL head coach. Here's a timeline of his football career:

as player	Quarterback, Univ of Florida	3yr letter winner
as coach
1974-75	Grad Asst, Univ of Florida
1976-78	Secondary, Troy St
1979-80	Defensive Asst, Air Force
1981-82	Defensive Coord, Air Force
1983-84	Head Coach, Troy St	Div II Natl Champship 1984
1985	Spec Teams/Def Asst, Broncos
1986-87	Spec Teams/Tight Ends, Broncos
1988	QBs/WRs, Broncos	Elway, Vance Johnson (Dan Reeves)
1989-90	Offensive Coord/WRs, Broncos	Elway, Vance Johnson (Dan Reeves)
1991-92	Head Coach, Birmingham Fire	World League, 2 playoff appearances
1993	Head Coach, Samford Univ
1994-95	WRs, Steelers	4 division titles, and
1996-97	Offensive Coord, Steelers	3 conf title games, 1 SB appearance
1998-99	Head Coach, Cowboys	18-14, 2 playoff appearances. Undef in div in '98
2000-01	Offensive Coord, Dolphins	Two 11-5 records (Dave Wannstedt)
2002-07	Head Coach, Georgia Tech	6 bowl appearances, 44-33 overall
2008	Offensive Coord, Chiefs	Gonzalez & Bowe over 1,000 yds. Fired in 2009 preseason

This is a guy who knows a little bit of football, right? It takes a fair amount of gall for a blogger to sit in judgment on a guy who's won one championship in college, taken another college team to 6 bowl games in 7 years, and made the playoffs 4 times in 4 seasons as a pro head coach

Ok, with that out of the way – the perception of Gailey back when he was the Cowboys coach in 1998-9 was that he was one of those guys, like Norv Turner, who is a quality coordinator but doesn't have quite the leadership charisma to succeed as an NFL head coach. Gailey fielded one good team for the Cowboys, at 10-6, and then one 8-8 team before Jerry Jones pulled the plug. Maybe this perception is unfair: the Cowboys were bad the year before Gailey got there, in Barry Switzer's final season, and they were terrible over the next 3 seasons after Gailey left, under Dave "5-11" Campo. But that perception is out there. Let's say there's some truth to it.

(Gailey also somehow managed go get fired as the Chiefs offensive coordinator last year, 3 games into the preseason. That was weird.)

This year's edition of the Football Outsiders Almanac has an article on the Bills which does a nice job of detailing the challenges they face. Some of it is organizational: they are not in a big revenue market and just don't have a lot of money, for things like free agents and a big scouting dept and high-profile coaches. Some of it is the personnel: the team is weak at QB, weak at WR, shaky on the O-line, and their defensive personnel is best suited to playing the scheme they played last year and are abandoning this year. And some of it is the coaching staff: the offensive coordinator has never been a coordinator before, and the defensive coordinator is also pretty raw.

Put that all together and – well, this team still has to compete in the division with Belichick's Patriots, Rex Ryan's Jets, and the Parcells/Sparano Dolphins. There just aren't that many wins or playoff appearances lying around to be grabbed. The Bills last made the playoffs in 1999, under current Cowboys head coach Wade Phillips. They're not going back anytime soon.


Muddle Along

Pete Carroll
Seattle; formerly USC HC, Patriots HC

This may seem like a snap judgment. Carroll was wildly, wildly successful at USC; and he's not entirely a college guy. He has a winning record as an NFL head coach!

I gotta say, I don't entirely believe in Carroll. For one thing, he seems to have gotten out of USC just a few steps ahead of the NCAA enforcement cops. For another, he doesn't have Norm Chow around this team to install the offense.

And just how good was Carroll as an NFL head coach, the first time around? He took over a Super Bowl squad from Bill Parcells, and over the next three seasons won 10 games, 9 games, and 8 games. Then the job went to Belichick and two years later the Pats were winning Super Bowls. A surprising number of key players for the SB-winning teams were already in place in '96, including:

Bledsoe
Terry Glenn
Willie McGinest
Ted Johnson
Ty Law
Lawyer Milloy
Vinatieri

Carroll had those guys plus Pro Bowlers Curtis Martin & Ben Coates, and still declined in wins each season. If Carroll is so good, shouldn't he have gotten more out of those teams?

I dunno, I've just never believed in Carroll. On the other hand, the Seahawks do have Alex Gibbs coaching the O-line, and Sherman Smith coaching the running backs. It's likely they will be able to run the ball, eventually. Also, secondary coach Jerry Gray knows his business. The competition in the AFC West is not as formidable as some, although Whisenhunt has done good things in Arizona and Singletary's team might turn the corner in San Francisco.

They'll muddle along.


Mike Shanahan
Redskins; formerly Broncos HC, star OC

What the hell?

Shanahan won 4 division titles in Denver, with 7 total playoff appearances, and he won 2 Super Bowls. Won 2 Super Bowls! He had 2 losing seasons out of 14 in Denver, both of them coming when he turned over to the next QB (Brian Griese from Elway, Jay Cutler from Plummer). His winning pctg in Denver was over .600. This guy can coach. His stint coaching the Raiders offers no evidence to the contrary. He took a bad Raiders team to 7-9 and then was fired 4 games into the next season.

The Redskins also have an actual professional GM now, in Bruce Allen. Allen won the George Young Executive of the Year award in 2002, while with the Raiders. He navigated the Bucs out of salary cap hell while putting 3 winning teams on the field in 4 seasons, 2005-8. So far the Redskins have acted responsibly, making reasonable picks in this year's draft and not throwing huge money at free agents. They've actually had a brilliant offseason, reworking their QB situation and O-line while not trading away any future picks.

So what's the problem?

Well:
It's not easy to see how The Danny will screw it up, but it's almost impossible to believe he won't.

It's easy to forget how good Joe Gibbs was, and why he is in the Hall of Fame. Here's a nugget for you: before he returned to bail out The Danny, Gibbs' career playoff winning pctg was .761. That put Gibbs just behind guys like Vince Lombardi (.900!) and Weeb Ewbank (.800!) – and ahead of everybody else. Joe Gibbs was not able to win under Dan Snyder. Joe Gibbs! In 4 Snyder seasons Gibbs went 30-34 with 2 playoff appearances. His pre-Snyder winning pctg was .674.

Yeah but, you say, Gibbs was saddled with the football albatross, Vinny Cerrato. Shanahan is working with a pro, Bruce Allen. Ok. But Bruce Allen is mostly known for his skill working the cap, and for his ability to work closely with a strong head coach; not as a personnel genius. Who's the guy in the organization who is going to draft well? Shanahan is a really great coach. But his weakness is personnel, as was demonstrated rather clearly when he took sole control the last few years in Denver.

Now, the Redskins can do pretty well just by being well-coached and not screwing up in the draft and free agency. They can climb to respectability, to being competitive, just on that basis alone. But I don't see how they're going to break thru – esp in the NFC East! The Giants, the Cowboys, Andy Reid's Eagles! – without someone drafting brilliantly and building a great defense. Who in this group is going to do that?

I hate to disrespect Shanahan, but it seems to me like the next 3 years in Washington are going to be more like Shanahan's last 3 years in Denver, than his first 3 years in Denver. And what happens after 3 years of solid but unspectacular performance? Whose trigger finger is going to start getting itchy?

Yeah, that's right. The Skins are already struggling under the weight of the Albert Haynesworth contract. I give him two seasons before he makes a similarly splashy yet ill-judged move.
_____________________________

So there you go! Another little glimpse into the future from the Oblong Spheroid. Tune in next year, when we foretell the futures of the new coaching staffs of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Jacksonville Jaguars, among others.

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"Let's Take It From Them"

From Jim's popular category of 'things I meant to post a while ago but didn’t' comes a discussion from Brian Burke where he tries to tie NFL economics to more classical ones. While his ideas are interesting, I really can't say I agree with him at all.

Personally, I think they're all overpaid, rookies and veterans. If you ask most football players if they would still play football for $80,000 per year instead of $800,000 or $8 million, they'd say yes. It's almost certainly a better proposition than whatever else they'd be able to do in the labor market. If Sam Bradford had the choice between playing in the NFL for $80k/yr or looking for an entry level job in Oklahoma City, what do you think he'd do? Every dollar above $80k is icing on the cake. Technically, it could be considered economic rent.

~

It seems to me almost all of the economic rent in professional sports goes to the players. It's hard to imagine any other multi-billion dollar company paying more than 60% of its revenue to a few hundred employees. It's not that the salaries are high in absolute terms, it's that the athletes would gladly play for far less. I think that's partly why so many people object to the high salaries for many professional athletes.

Like I said, clever.

While this argument fails in a number of spots, its primary flaw is simply that Burke uses rhetorical ploys - he flails at peoples' sensibilities - in the place of sound reasoning. It hardly matters whether "multi-billion" dollar companies pay "60% of its revenue to a few hundred employeeds". The reason that they don't is that other multi-billion dollar companies rely on many more than a few hundred people to make things go, and professional sports are unique in that their highest paid employees are also their primary product. Investment banking (eg) follows similar principles, with their highest paid employees getting much more than professional athletes, however they have huge support networks feeding providing them with tools. NFL players have a couple of position coaches and strength trainers. Regardless, most multi-billion dollar companies do not have people as the primary product.

This discussion became topical recently since Domonique Foxworth's candid discussion of labor talks. Foxworth appears to be on the short list of players who may replace Kevin Mawae as NFLPA president.

What about allocating money to veteran players if a rookie wage scale is adopted?

Foxworth: "We had a meeting with the NFL and they said they wanted the money to go the veteran players. We said we would agree to it if they would guarantee all of that money would go to veteran players. They said we're not willing to make that guarantee. The rookie wage scale, in all honesty, they're using it as smoke and mirrors. It works in the NBA, but they have the Larry Bird exception.

"Those players get to be free agents a lot sooner and they can make so much money like a LeBron James. It works there. If they adopted the same model, we would consider it. But they're not interested in changing it. They're interested in changing it in a way that would hurt us. I think players should get paid on potential. The onus falls on general managers to make the right decisions on draft picks. They get steals in many cases."

With the owners refusing to reveal their financial records, at what point does the union stop asking for them to open up their books?

Foxworth: "We've negotiated without it up until this point. It's not something that we've been necessarily pleased with. In the interest of keeping the fans happy and keeping our product going, we'd be willing to agree to a good deal. Right now, they're not offering a good deal. They're offering a bad deal and saying we can't see their books. We would be willing to consider a good deal. It's unfair. There's no other companies that expect one group to negotiate with another group where you can't see all their cards and they can see yours. It's ridiculous. It's unfair."

I know that a lot of this is posturing. I'm probably a bit naive but when it comes to something like labor negotiations I fail to see the benefit of winning in the court of public opinion. The NFL won't open their books because they don't have to open their books. Those of us who remember the strikes of '82 and '87 can reasonably predict a similar pattern. As soon as the game checks stop flowing the pressure on the union to reach an agreement will intensify exponentially. A third of the NFLPA will realize their entire NFL income over the course of 1-2 seasons. Every week without a game is a minimum loss of $20k per player.

A few months ago Robert Kraft attempted to explain the NFL's position, disputing that the league was actually requesting an 18% rollback from the negotiated numbers.

The bottom line on this deal, in the new deal, is 75 percent of all the revenue has gone to the players since ’06. We just can’t survive doing that. It means we’re not gonna take risks, and that’s not good."

If this is true then I wonder what kind of calculus the league agreed to that made 60% into 75%. Kraft's claim was supported by the Packers recent financial statement (Green Bay publicly traded, ergo public financials).

During the four years of the current collective bargaining agreement, player costs increased 11.8 percent and revenue 5.5 percent annually, said Mark Murphy, president and CEO.

Player expenses include salaries, signing bonuses, health care plans, retirement plans and other payments to players. The team spreads the cost of signing bonuses over the life of contracts – called amortization – but otherwise generally account for player costs as they arise.

“We always try to follow conservative accounting policy,” Weyers said.

Murphy said that since the most recent collective bargaining agreement took effect in 2006-07, Packers’ revenue increased incrementally by $131.7 million. Of that, $123.4 million, or 94.3 percent, went to players.

If true, anyone can see that this is unsustainable, but again it raises the question of how 60% isn't 60%.

Okay, so enough meandering for now. Other than 'they're all lying' (which they are). It is hard to see how this will play out. I suspect that the NFLPA will look hard at the recent lesson learned by the NHL players and hammer out a deal before the clock strikes midnight.

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Chris Henry's Brain

Under the heading of “stuff I meant to post about 3 weeks ago”, we have this:

Former Bengal Henry Found to Have Had Brain Damage
By Alan Schwarz, NYT
Dr. Julian Bailes and Dr. Bennet Omalu of the Brain Injury Research Institute at West Virginia University announced on Monday that Henry, 26, had developed chronic traumatic encephalopathy, the progressive brain disease whose recent discovery in some retired N.F.L. players has raised questions of football’s long-term safety risks. The 22nd professional football player to be given a diagnosis of C.T.E., Henry is the first to have died with the disease while active after 2007, when prior C.T.E. findings prompted the N.F.L. to begin strengthening rules regarding concussion management..

It's taken me forever to write about this; and now that I force myself to do it, I realize that the problem is that I don't really have anything to say on the subject.

Much respect to Alan Schwarz at the Grey Lady, who has kept this subject (brain deterioration in NFL players) in the forefront as a story. Ultimately I think it's THE most important football story. I'm proud of our little blog for talking about it consistently. But overall it's hard to be anything but sad.

“I was surprised in a way because of his age and because he was not known as a concussion sufferer or a big hitter. Is there some lower threshold when you become at risk for this disease? I’m struggling to see if something can come out positive out of this.”

Dr Bailes is right. If Chris Henry developed CTE by age 26, then don't all NFL players have it, to one degree or another? Has a former player ever been tested for it, and found not to have it? The only thing I can see coming out of this, ultimately, is a ban on contact football for youth players.

While we ponder the levels of moroseness and guilt appropriate to the topic of CTE and football, go read this amazing series. Rick Telander is a columnist for the Chicago Sun Times, and a former Northwestern football player. He did a series of articles:

“The Team: What football did for us and – what football did to us” is a nine-part series by Sun-Times' award-winning columnist Rick Telander about the 1968-1970 Northwestern Wildcats, a team for which he played. This story begins at a brain research lab in Massachusetts, and it will end there, too. But on the way it moves about the country as Telander visits with old teammates and talks about the sport they played together years ago, the one that shaped them, rewarded them and wounded them.

This is must-read stuff.

What football did for us and - what football did to us
The story of the 1968-1970 Northwestern Wildcats
Part 1: What football did for us and - what football did to us
Part 2: 'I have lost words on air occasionally'
Part 3:The study too far ahead of its time
Part 4: 'I liked the physical contact. A lot of people don't like it. I always did.'
Part 5:'I had my concussions, but I never would allow myself to be held out of a game for that.'
Part 6:'I was fuzzy after I hit a guy's knee'
Part 7: 'I was never diagnosed with a concussion, but ...'
Part 8: 'I have to jot things down to remember them'
Part 9: 'I'm a cheerleader for the brain'

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Nick Saban: The Idiot Father

Tuesday Nick Saban dropped his pants to show that he has bigger, hairier balls than all of us combined when he called out the NFL to do something about agents that assist student athletes to get in trouble.

I think that the players have a responsibility to make good choices and decisions about what they do with the agents. I also think the NFL Players Association has a responsibility to monitor and control what agents do.

I think if an agent does anything to affect the eligibility of a college football player, his license ought to be suspended for a year. That's the only way we're going to stop what's happening out there because it's ridiculous and it's entrapment of young people at a very difficult time in their life. And it's very difficult for the institutions and NCAA to control it and it's very unfair to college football.

I think as college coaches, we should look into doing something about that relative to we develop a lot of football players so they can go on and play in the NFL. We treat the NFL as well as anybody in the United States when they come to the University of Alabama. If something doesn't go on from their end of it to control what they're doing to affect our players, then I'm not sure that that same hospitality will be welcomed in the future.

Now, while Saban gives the boiler-plate "players should be responsible" quote at the beginning of what I've quoted here, it's brushed over quickly as though it's inconsequential. Instead he focuses on two other entities. First, the dirty agents, who I'm not exonerating; they share a great deal of responsibility in this matter. I happen to agree with him that the agents should face stiff penalties for coaxing these kids to break rules (same with boosters, though their schools may impose penalties on them that I/we don't know about). Second, the NFL, which for some reason should supposedly share the blame for college kids getting into trouble at the hands of agents and boosters playing fast and loose with their money and the rules.

The problem is that this comes off as the idiot father looking to assign blame to anyone but himself when his kid goes off and gets himself in trouble.

It doesn't help that Saban's not exactly a likable character, and is already seen as looking to stab the NFL in the back any chance he gets with how he treated the Dolphins. But here he just looks to be ducking his responsibility to teach his own kids a lesson. That's right Nick, everyone here's at fault except you and the schools. You're all just looking out for their best interests, not trying to cut corners yourselves.

Tomorrow, Nick has some fantastic soon to be highly developed real estate opportunities in the 'Bama wetlands that he'd love to discuss with you!

Postscript: For what it's worth, I agree with Saban that agents are out of control here. The fact that schools are hammered constantly as well as the students, while no punishment is levied against the agents is ridiculous. However, what the NFL has to do with this, I have no idea, and his threats against the NFL sound to me like a bitter kid that's angry he was left off the invite list to a party. Plus, the coaches need to take some responsibility here themselves...Saban acting as though the coaches don't have a clue what goes on with their kids getting paid is laughably asinine.

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Dan Snyder has a love of learning

Dan Steinberg writes the DC Sports Bog for the Washington Post. Not "blog", it's "bog" as in swamp or getting bogged down. And he's brilliant. Today he writes:

What Daniel Snyder has learned: A brief history
Now we're on the eve of another training camp, and many of the introductory stories will surely focus yet again on what Snyder has learned: hiring a general manager and a strong coach, backing away from personnel decisions, cutting his friendly ties with players, and so on. For example, from Fox Sports this summer:
"I learned - and I think this has to do with Joe Gibbs - the most important thing for me personally is to have a head coach who is extremely competent," Snyder said. "That's what I've got with Mike. It creates an opportunity for me to be extremely hands off and not have to worry."
But -- without being a total crank -- it seems worth pointing out that this year isn't the first time people will talk about what Snyder has learned, and last year wasn't, either. A brief history:

And then Steinberg lists 10 years of quotes from Snyder, about what he has learned this year. They're stunning and beautiful, listed like that.

Oct, 2001: Now I've learned...
Jan, 2002: Ok, now I've really learned...
Mar, 2003: Ok, this time we really are going to build thru the draft...

Great work by Steinberg. Go read it.

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