Oblong Spheroid: Rating rookie quarterbacks

I had a spreadsheet on my laptop, with data from the wonderful wonderful Pro Football Reference site up thru 2004, which I had used a couple years ago in examining player performance by age. So I took a look at the passer rating of rookie QBs.

The NFL uses an attempts-per-game threshold to determine eligibility for the passer rating list, so I did the same thing. That column is on the far right, on the table below. But the NFL's threshold is 14 pass attempts per game, which I felt was restrictive. In the list below I've eliminated guys with 7 or fewer passes per game. Passes per game is an odd stat to use as a filter, because you get guys who played like 1 or 2 games and float to the top of this list. See Todd Marinovich, who played in 1 game in 1999, but attempted 40 passes. But it gives us a first look at the data.

I also weeded out some guys who were not rookies (like Marc Bulger 2001); and I threw out Dieter Brock for being ridiculous. Technically a rookie, the 34yo Dieter Brock made his NFL debut in 1985 after 11 yrs as a professional QB in the CFL. I was not consistent about this, I left in some guys who had pro ball careers before getting into the NFL. They are asterisked in the list below.

Here are the top 32 rookie seasons by passer rating from the data available at PFR.
If 32 seems like a weird number to you, realize that I had to include enough guys to get Joe Flacco on the list (he's #26), and the next few guys were interesting so I included them too.

Player Season Age Team G COMP ATT Yards TD INT QBRate PassPG
Clint Longley 1974 22 dal 2 12 21 209 2 0 122.9 10.5
Todd Blackledge 1983 22 kan 4 20 34 259 3 0 112.3 8.5
Kevin Sweeney 1987 24 dal 3 14 28 291 4 1 111.8 9.3
Norm VanBrocklin 1949 23 ram 8 32 58 601 6 2 111.4 7.3
Todd Marinovich 1991 22 rai 1 23 40 243 3 0 100.3 40.0
Jim Sorgi 2004 24 clt 4 17 29 175 2 0 99.1 7.3
Ben Roethlisbrgr 2004 22 pit 14 196 295 2621 17 11 98.1 21.1
Johnny Lujack 1948 23 chi 9 36 66 611 6 3 97.5 7.3
Dan Marino 1983 22 mia 11 173 296 2210 20 6 96.0 26.9
Galen Hall 1962 22 was 3 19 32 274 2 1 95.1 10.7
Drew Brees 2001 22 sdg 1 15 27 221 1 0 94.8 27.0
Pat Haden 1976 23 ram 10 60 105 896 8 4 94.8 10.5
David Archer 1984 22 atl 2 11 18 181 1 1 90.3 9.0
Sam Wyche 1968 23 cin 3 35 55 494 2 2 89.5 18.3
Greg Cook 1969 23 cin 11 106 197 1854 15 11 88.3 17.9
Matt Ryan 2008 23 atl 16 265 434 3440 16 11 87.7 27.1
Erik Wilhelm 1989 24 cin 6 30 56 425 4 2 87.3 9.3
John Stofa 1966 24 mia 7 29 57 425 4 2 84.3 8.1
Edd Hargett 1969 22 nor 6 31 52 403 0 0 84.1 8.7
Charlie Conerly 1948 27 nyg 12 162 299 2175 22 13 84.0 24.9
Charlie Batch 1998 24 det 12 173 303 2178 11 6 83.5 25.3
Jim Kelly * 1986 26 buf 16 285 480 3593 22 17 83.3 30.0
Jon Kitna 1997 25 sea 3 31 45 371 1 2 82.7 15.0
Shaun King 1999 22 tam 6 89 146 875 7 4 82.4 24.3
Steve McNair 1995 22 oti 6 41 80 569 3 1 81.7 13.3
Joe Flacco 2008 23 bal 16 257 428 2971 14 12 80.3 26.8
Doug Flutie * 1986 24 chi 4 23 46 361 3 2 80.1 11.5
Jim McMahon 1982 23 chi 8 120 210 1501 9 7 79.9 26.3
Mike Boryla 1974 23 phi 4 60 102 580 5 3 78.9 25.5
Roman Gabriel 1962 22 ram 6 57 101 670 3 2 78.4 16.8
Jeff Garcia * 1999 29 sfo 13 225 375 2544 11 11 77.9 28.8

Player	Season	Age	Team	G	COMP	ATT	Yards	TD	INT	QBRate	PassPG
Clint Longley	1974	22	dal	2	12	21	209	2	0	122.9	10.5
Todd Blackledge	1983	22	kan	4	20	34	259	3	0	112.3	8.5
Kevin Sweeney	1987	24	dal	3	14	28	291	4	1	111.8	9.3
Norm VanBrocklin	1949	23	ram	8	32	58	601	6	2	111.4	7.3
Todd Marinovich	1991	22	rai	1	23	40	243	3	0	100.3	40.0
Jim Sorgi	2004	24	clt	4	17	29	175	2	0	99.1	7.3
Ben Roethlisbrgr	2004	22	pit	14	196	295	2621	17	11	98.1	21.1
Johnny Lujack	1948	23	chi	9	36	66	611	6	3	97.5	7.3
Dan Marino	1983	22	mia	11	173	296	2210	20	6	96.0	26.9
Galen Hall	1962	22	was	3	19	32	274	2	1	95.1	10.7
Drew Brees	2001	22	sdg	1	15	27	221	1	0	94.8	27.0
Pat Haden	1976	23	ram	10	60	105	896	8	4	94.8	10.5
David Archer	1984	22	atl	2	11	18	181	1	1	90.3	9.0
Sam Wyche	1968	23	cin	3	35	55	494	2	2	89.5	18.3
Greg Cook	1969	23	cin	11	106	197	1854	15	11	88.3	17.9
Matt Ryan	2008	23	atl	16	265	434	3440	16	11	87.7	27.1
Erik Wilhelm	1989	24	cin	6	30	56	425	4	2	87.3	9.3
John Stofa	1966	24	mia	7	29	57	425	4	2	84.3	8.1
Edd Hargett	1969	22	nor	6	31	52	403	0	0	84.1	8.7
Charlie Conerly	1948	27	nyg	12	162	299	2175	22	13	84.0	24.9
Charlie Batch	1998	24	det	12	173	303	2178	11	6	83.5	25.3
Jim Kelly *	1986	26	buf	16	285	480	3593	22	17	83.3	30.0
Jon Kitna	1997	25	sea	3	31	45	371	1	2	82.7	15.0
Shaun King	1999	22	tam	6	89	146	875	7	4	82.4	24.3
Steve McNair	1995	22	oti	6	41	80	569	3	1	81.7	13.3
Joe Flacco	2008	23	bal	16	257	428	2971	14	12	80.3	26.8
Doug Flutie *	1986	24	chi	4	23	46	361	3	2	80.1	11.5
Jim McMahon	1982	23	chi	8	120	210	1501	9	7	79.9	26.3
Mike Boryla	1974	23	phi	4	60	102	580	5	3	78.9	25.5
Roman Gabriel	1962	22	ram	6	57	101	670	3	2	78.4	16.8
Jeff Garcia *	1999	29	sfo	13	225	375	2544	11	11	77.9	28.8

Put some kind of minimum floor on this data, like say 75 or 100 attempts or 6/7 games or both, and the 5 highest rookie passer ratings since Marino belong to Roethlisberger, Ryan, Batch, Jim Kelly*, & Flacco. By the way, I completely forgot about Charlie Batch's rookie season in Detroit. A fine performance. Here's the top list, after requiring 75 pass attempts and 7 games played:

Player Season QBRate
Ben Roethlisbrgr 2004 98.1
Dan Marino 1983 96.0
Pat Haden 1976 94.8
Greg Cook 1969 88.3
Matt Ryan 2008 87.7
Charlie Conerly 1948 84.0
Charlie Batch 1998 83.5
Jim Kelly * 1986 83.3
Joe Flacco 2008 80.3
Jim McMahon 1982 79.9
Jeff Garcia * 1999 77.9
Warren Moon * 1984 76.9
Fran Tarkenton 1961 74.7
Mike Kruczek 1976 74.5
Johnny Unitas 1956 74.0
Ken O'Brien 1984 74.0

Player	Season	QBRate
Ben Roethlisbrgr	2004	98.1
Dan Marino	1983	96.0
Pat Haden	1976	94.8
Greg Cook	1969	88.3
Matt Ryan	2008	87.7
Charlie Conerly	1948	84.0
Charlie Batch	1998	83.5
Jim Kelly *	1986	83.3
Joe Flacco	2008	80.3
Jim McMahon	1982	79.9
Jeff Garcia *	1999	77.9
Warren Moon *	1984	76.9
Fran Tarkenton	1961	74.7
Mike Kruczek	1976	74.5
Johnny Unitas	1956	74.0
Ken O'Brien	1984	74.0

Here's another way to look at the rookie QBs: the "thrown to the wolves" list. This is all the rookie QBs over 25 passing attempts per game (min 75 attempts and 7 games played). Kinda gives me more respect for Chris Weinke and Drew Bledsoe and the Throwin' Samoan, Jack Trudeau.

Player Season Age Team G COMP  ATT Yards TD  INT QBRate PassPG
Chris Weinke * 2001 29 car 15 293 540 2931 11 19 62.0 36.0
Peyton Manning 1998 22 clt 16 326 575 3739 26 28 71.2 35.9
Jack Trudeau 1986 24 clt 12 204 417 2225 8 18 53.5 34.8
Drew Bledsoe 1993 21 nwe 13 214 429 2494 15 15 65.0 33.0
Jim Zorn 1976 23 sea 14 208 439 2571 12 27 49.5 31.4
Oliver Luck 1983 23 oti 7 124 217 1375 8 13 63.4 31.0
Karl Sweetan 1966 24 det 10 157 309 1809 4 14 54.3 30.9
Joey Harrington 2002 24 det 14 215 429 2294 12 16 59.9 30.6
Rick Mirer 1993 23 sea 16 274 486 2833 12 17 67.0 30.4
Jim Kelly * 1986 26 buf 16 285 480 3593 22 17 83.3 30.0
Jake Plummer 1997 23 crd 10 157 296 2203 15 15 73.1 29.6
Jeff Garcia * 1999 29 sfo 13 225 375 2544 11 11 77.9 28.8
Kerry Collins 1995 23 car 15 214 432 2717 14 19 62.0 28.8
Warren Moon * 1984 28 oti 16 259 450 3338 12 14 76.9 28.1
Butch Songin * 1960 36 nwe 14 187 392 2476 22 15 70.9 28.0
Byron Leftwich 2003 23 jax 15 239 418 2819 14 16 73.0 27.9
Chad Hutchinson * 2002 25 dal 9 127 250 1555 7 8 66.3 27.8
David Carr 2002 23 htx 16 233 444 2592 9 15 62.8 27.8
Bob Griese 1967 22 mia 12 166 331 2005 15 18 61.6 27.6
Steve Walsh 1989 23 dal 8 110 219 1371 5 9 60.5 27.4
Matt Ryan 2008 23 atl 16 265 434 3440 16 11 87.7 27.1
Dan Marino 1983 22 mia 11 173 296 2210 20 6 96.0 26.9
Joe Flacco 2008 23 bal 16 257 428 2971 14 12 80.3 26.8
Norm Snead 1961 22 was 14 172 375 2337 11 22 51.6 26.8
Troy Aikman 1989 23 dal 11 155 293 1749 9 18 55.7 26.6
Tim Couch 1999 22 cle 15 223 399 2447 15 13 73.2 26.6
Tony Banks 1996 23 ram 14 192 368 2544 15 15 71.0 26.3
Jim McMahon 1982 23 chi 8 120 210 1501 9 7 79.9 26.3
Y.A. Tittle 1950 24 bcl 12 161 315 1884 8 19 52.9 26.3
Joe Namath 1965 22 nyj 13 164 340 2220 18 15 68.8 26.2
Jeff George 1990 23 clt 13 181 334 2152 16 13 73.8 25.7
Charlie Batch 1998 24 det 12 173 303 2178 11 6 83.5 25.3
Steve Deberg 1978 24 sfo 12 137 302 1570 8 22 40.0 25.2
David Woodley 1980 22 mia 13 176 327 1850 14 17 63.1 25.2
Ken Dorsey 2004 23 sfo 9 123 226 1231 6 9 62.4 25.1

Player	Season	Age	Team	G	COMP	ATT	Yards	TD	INT	QBRate	PassPG
Chris Weinke *	2001	29	car	15	293	540	2931	11	19	62.0	36.0
Peyton Manning	1998	22	clt	16	326	575	3739	26	28	71.2	35.9
Jack Trudeau	1986	24	clt	12	204	417	2225	8	18	53.5	34.8
Drew Bledsoe	1993	21	nwe	13	214	429	2494	15	15	65.0	33.0
Jim Zorn	1976	23	sea	14	208	439	2571	12	27	49.5	31.4
Oliver Luck	1983	23	oti	7	124	217	1375	8	13	63.4	31.0
Karl Sweetan	1966	24	det	10	157	309	1809	4	14	54.3	30.9
Joey Harrington	2002	24	det	14	215	429	2294	12	16	59.9	30.6
Rick Mirer	1993	23	sea	16	274	486	2833	12	17	67.0	30.4
Jim Kelly *	1986	26	buf	16	285	480	3593	22	17	83.3	30.0
Jake Plummer	1997	23	crd	10	157	296	2203	15	15	73.1	29.6
Jeff Garcia *	1999	29	sfo	13	225	375	2544	11	11	77.9	28.8
Kerry Collins	1995	23	car	15	214	432	2717	14	19	62.0	28.8
Warren Moon *	1984	28	oti	16	259	450	3338	12	14	76.9	28.1
Butch Songin *	1960	36	nwe	14	187	392	2476	22	15	70.9	28.0
Byron Leftwich	2003	23	jax	15	239	418	2819	14	16	73.0	27.9
Chad Hutchinson *	2002	25	dal	9	127	250	1555	7	8	66.3	27.8
David Carr	2002	23	htx	16	233	444	2592	9	15	62.8	27.8
Bob Griese	1967	22	mia	12	166	331	2005	15	18	61.6	27.6
Steve Walsh	1989	23	dal	8	110	219	1371	5	9	60.5	27.4
Matt Ryan	2008	23	atl	16	265	434	3440	16	11	87.7	27.1
Dan Marino	1983	22	mia	11	173	296	2210	20	6	96.0	26.9
Joe Flacco	2008	23	bal	16	257	428	2971	14	12	80.3	26.8
Norm Snead	1961	22	was	14	172	375	2337	11	22	51.6	26.8
Troy Aikman	1989	23	dal	11	155	293	1749	9	18	55.7	26.6
Tim Couch	1999	22	cle	15	223	399	2447	15	13	73.2	26.6
Tony Banks	1996	23	ram	14	192	368	2544	15	15	71.0	26.3
Jim McMahon	1982	23	chi	8	120	210	1501	9	7	79.9	26.3
Y.A. Tittle	1950	24	bcl	12	161	315	1884	8	19	52.9	26.3
Joe Namath	1965	22	nyj	13	164	340	2220	18	15	68.8	26.2
Jeff George	1990	23	clt	13	181	334	2152	16	13	73.8	25.7
Charlie Batch	1998	24	det	12	173	303	2178	11	6	83.5	25.3
Steve Deberg	1978	24	sfo	12	137	302	1570	8	22	40.0	25.2
David Woodley	1980	22	mia	13	176	327	1850	14	17	63.1	25.2
Ken Dorsey	2004	23	sfo	9	123	226	1231	6	9	62.4	25.1

Here are the top 13 rookie yardage seasons. Passing yardage of course is heavily biased toward modern-day QBs, with the 16-game season and the liberalized passing rules.

Player Season Yards
Peyton Manning 1998 3739
Jim Kelly * 1986 3593
Matt Ryan 2008 3440
Warren Moon * 1984 3338
Joe Flacco 2008 2971
Chris Weinke * 2001 2931
Rick Mirer 1993 2833
Byron Leftwich 2003 2819
Kerry Collins 1995 2717
Ben Roethlisbrgr 2004 2621
David Carr 2002 2592
Jim Zorn 1976 2571
Jeff Garcia * 1999 2544

Player	Season	Yards
Peyton Manning	1998	3739
Jim Kelly *	1986	3593
Matt Ryan	2008	3440
Warren Moon *	1984	3338
Joe Flacco	2008	2971
Chris Weinke *	2001	2931
Rick Mirer	1993	2833
Byron Leftwich	2003	2819
Kerry Collins	1995	2717
Ben Roethlisbrgr	2004	2621
David Carr	2002	2592
Jim Zorn	1976	2571
Jeff Garcia *	1999	2544

Peyton Manning really was that far ahead of everyone else. Matt Ryan's season is hella impressive, the #2 "real rookie" season. Flacco heads up the next tier of guys. The one who stands out to me is Jim Zorn. What's a rookie in 1976 doing making this list? Well, he's #5 on our "thrown to the wolves" list, and he also threw 27 INTs that year, the record Manning broke.

Here's rookies with 10 or more TD passes since Marino's season:

Player Season TDs INT QBRate
Peyton Manning 1998 26 28 71.2
Jim Kelly * 1986 22 17 83.3
Dan Marino 1983 20 6 96.0
Ben Roethlisbrgr 2004 17 11 98.1
Jeff George 1990 16 13 73.8
Matt Ryan 2008 16 11 87.7
Drew Bledsoe 1993 15 15 65.0
Tony Banks 1996 15 15 71.0
Jake Plummer 1997 15 15 73.1
Tim Couch 1999 15 13 73.2
Kerry Collins 1995 14 19 62.0
Byron Leftwich 2003 14 16 73.0
Joe Flacco 2008 14 12 80.3
Warren Moon * 1984 12 14 76.9
Rick Mirer 1993 12 17 67.0
Joey Harrington 2002 12 16 59.9
Charlie Batch 1998 11 6 83.5
Jeff Garcia * 1999 11 11 77.9
Chris Weinke * 2001 11 19 62.0
Heath Shuler 1994 10 12 59.6

Player	Season	TDs	INT	QBRate
Peyton Manning	1998	26	28	71.2
Jim Kelly *	1986	22	17	83.3
Dan Marino	1983	20	6	96.0
Ben Roethlisbrgr	2004	17	11	98.1
Jeff George	1990	16	13	73.8
Matt Ryan	2008	16	11	87.7
Drew Bledsoe	1993	15	15	65.0
Tony Banks	1996	15	15	71.0
Jake Plummer	1997	15	15	73.1
Tim Couch	1999	15	13	73.2
Kerry Collins	1995	14	19	62.0
Byron Leftwich	2003	14	16	73.0
Joe Flacco	2008	14	12	80.3
Warren Moon *	1984	12	14	76.9
Rick Mirer	1993	12	17	67.0
Joey Harrington	2002	12	16	59.9
Charlie Batch	1998	11	6	83.5
Jeff Garcia *	1999	11	11	77.9
Chris Weinke *	2001	11	19	62.0
Heath Shuler	1994	10	12	59.6

More of these than I would have thought. Weinke's asterisks in the above 2 lists are for playing 6 seasons of pro baseball before going back to college. So perhaps it doesn't belong.

The main point of these lists is of course to emphasize how wonderful Joe Flacco's season was. Matt Ryan's season was clearly better – astonishing might not be too strong a word – but Joe Cool's season ranks on the top 5 or 10 lists of best rookie statistical seasons ever, whether we're looking at wins or passer rating or yardage or TD passes.

[Edit: of course the Throwin' Samoan was Jack Thompson, not Jack Trudeau. Sorry, Jack.]

4 comments:

AnonymousJanuary 15, 2009 at 7:31 PM
lets just hope he's not a rick mirer
Patrick DJanuary 15, 2009 at 9:32 PM
Very nice article, Jim.
Chris BJanuary 16, 2009 at 10:16 AM
Agree, nicely done. I was gonna do something like this, so you saved me a lot of work!
AnonymousJanuary 17, 2009 at 5:35 PM
you've come along way ravens fans

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d9n4DlmibDQ&feature=related

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Rating rookie quarterbacks

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Thursday, January 15, 2009

Rating rookie quarterbacks

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