Tuesday, November 30, 2010

The Interim Thing Works?

Peter King tells us that "Interim coaches, mostly, bring fresh air and new approaches."

there have been seven interim coaches since the start of the 2007 season, and every one of them has had a better winning percentage than the coach he replaced in that season. ... Here's how the last seven teams to make in-season coaching changes have fared with the new man:
I think he's missing the point.

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Monday, November 29, 2010

21 point swing

Late in the 2nd quarter of yesterday's Bucs-Ravens game, Tampa defender Myron Lewis was flagged for pass interference against TJ Houshmazilly. This put the ball on the Bucs 10 yard line with 37 seconds left in the half, and on the next play Flacco threw a TD pass to Mason, to put the Ravens up 17-3.

Just a few mins earlier in the same quarter, the Ravens kicked off after Todd Heap's touchdown reception, and Tampa's Micheal Spurlock busted a big return, finally getting tackled by Ravens kicker Billy Cundiff.

Later in the game, with about 12 mins to go in the 4th quarter, on 3rd down from their 40, Tampa QB Josh Freeman lofted a bomb to Spurlock. Spurlock had toasted Ravens CB Lardarius Webb with a double move, beating him deep. The ball bounced off of Spurlock's hand in the end zone and fell incomplete.

The pass interference call was, to put it charitably, “questionable”. A lucky break for the Ravens. Without that call, the Ravens almost certainly don't score that second touchdown. The kick return – can we agree that, whenever your kicker has to make the tackle, you are lucky it did not go all the way for a touchdown? And the deep ball, that pass should have been caught. It hit Spurlock in the hand!

That is a 21 point swing. Take 7 points off the board for the Ravens, and put 14 on for the Bucs, and instead of a 17-10 win Baltimore is left with a 24-10 loss.

The crazy thing is, as a Ravens fan, I really felt they had the game under control. They kept Tampa bottled up in their own end for much of the first half, etc: didn't really seem threatened. I may have to recalibrate my “game sense” or something, because this game could easily have been a 2-TD loss for the Ravens. And maybe it should have been.

Saturday, November 27, 2010

Breaking down the QB

I read a Ravens message board that's pretty standard for message board material, but there are some interesting contributors that also blog and write articles for the site. One of them - Chris Johnston - is a high school coach that breaks down some of Flacco's better plays vs. Carolina in a blog post here. He'll apparently do the bad at a later time which I'll link if I remember. Either way, it's somewhat interesting reading and viewing (video accompanies to show the actual plays on the blog, as well as shown below).

Friday, November 26, 2010

Matt Millen gets a nice surprise

Yahoo's great football blog "Shutdown Corner" points out this:

Matt Millen gets a nice surprise in the booth

Nice.

Matt Millen may be a buffoon and an insult to fans, but he's also a dad with a son serving overseas, so we give thanks and offer our best wishes.

Thursday, November 25, 2010

CONSPIRACY THEORY ALERT!!!

I'm pretty sure I'm not alone when I say that watching Matt Millen on TV act like he knows more about football than my three year old daughter is not only vomit-inducing, it's infuriating.

Is it possible that this is ESPN extending a giant middle finger to the sports world? "Look how big we are! We are so big and powerful, that we can hire the most incompetent executive in the history of the sports universe, and place him at the epicenter of many large football events! You will take it, you will love it, and you will thank us for it!"

There's really no other explanation other than Millen having pictures of high ranking ESPN execs in compromising positions with farm animals.

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Statistical stupidity

The Grey Lady takes a moment to tell us this:

Manning Has Quietly Become Giants’ Most Frequent Fumbler

Seriously? This is worth a headline? Quarterbacks always lead their team and the league in fumbles. That's what happens when you handle the ball every single play.

To be fair,

Quarterbacks usually fumble more than other players. They handle the ball on every play. They are involved in dozens of ball transactions in a game, receiving a snap from center and handing or pitching it to a running back. And they fumble when they step back to throw, whether on a blind-side sack or when a defender knocks the ball away as the quarterback cocks his arm.
...
Quarterbacks dominate the list of career fumblers. The first nonquarterbacks on the list are Franco Harris and Tony Dorsett, tied for 20th, with 90 each.
So they do acknowledge the basic statistical truths of the situation. But I ask you, is that headline fair?

(I'm still a little irritated by the notion of Matt Millen arguing with Steve Young.)

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Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Matt Millen argues with Steve Young

Did you catch this, from the ESPN pre-game to Monday Night Football? I did not. Yahoo Sports "Shutdown Corner" blogger Chris Chase brings it to our attention:

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Monday, November 22, 2010

Minnesota rejoices!

It's about freakin' time. Brad Childress has been fired.

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Cowboys Second Guessing in T-minus ....

After how many wins does the national media break out this line?

"And now we're left to wonder what the fate of the Cowboys would have been had Jerry Jones fired Wade Phillips after the [insert chosen loss here]. Had he done so, it's certainly possible the Cowboys would in fact be able to host their new stadium's first Superbowl."

My over/under is after next week if they beat the Saints. My only real question is whether or not someone's already said it, and I just haven't seen it yet.

Sunday, November 21, 2010

Ed Reed and William Faulkner

The Baltimore Sun's Kevin Van Valkenburg explains how Ed Reed is like William Faulkner:
(scroll down to the last graph above point #5)

You can't take what you like about Reed, and not accept some of what also drives you nuts. If Reed were a famous writer, he'd be William Faulkner. Obviously brilliant, willing to take risks, a little bit mysterious, occasionally maddening and hard to understand, always interesting.
And you thought literature had nothing to tell us about football.

Friday, November 19, 2010

Would you take Vick now, if you knew – ?

I was listening to SportsTalk 980 the other day, and they had listeners call in to answer the question, if you had it to do over again, knowing what you know now, would you have picked up Michael Vick this offseason?

Vick's only leading the league in passer rating, having thrown 11 TDs to 0 INTs, with a yards-per-attempt figure that's 3rd in the league (behind Troy Smith and Philip Rivers). He also has 4 rushing TDs, to go with 57 rushing yards per game (7.8 per attempt). He was the most electrifying player in the league 4 to 6 yrs ago; a rare, unbelievable talent. Now he is again. Oh, and the Pheagles are 4-1 when he plays the whole game (vs 2-2 otherwise).

On the call-in show, there were a predictable number of callers who

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Thursday, November 18, 2010

Eagles Poised To Dominate

It is difficult to see a team with as bright a future as Philadelphia. I was as skeptical as anyone about Vick's early breakout. I figured the league would adjust and he would go back to being the Vick of old - except not as good.


Att Comp Yards TD INT Rate Rush Yards TD Team Scoring
Vick 153 96 1350 11 0 115.1 44 341 4 165
Kolb 153 97 1035 6 4 85.3 11 56 0 92

While the statistics are a little deceiving, Vick has played a game more than Kolb, the difference in the Eagle offense is remarkable. They have scored 33 points/game with Vick, 23 with Kolb.

Anyhow, this is a long-winded introduction to the idea that the Eagles are particularly fearsome with Vick under center. I think they can get better though.

I am pretty certain that Philadelphia intends to go forward with Vick. The question then is whither Kolb? I'm sure there will be some temptation to keep him and continue to groom him. I think this would be a mistake.

If we look at the recent windfalls that teams have gotten for unproven quarterbacks like Matt Schaub and Charlie Whitehurst. If we look at what teams have gotten for proven busts like Brady Quinn, one trembles at what Kolb could bring.

Add another couple of young star players to a potent nucleus and it is easy to imagine this team contending for the next five years, and not just contending in the way that they have in the past. Philadelphia has the capacity to move into the rarified elite, from a 9-11 win team to a 12-14 win team. Without simply listing off names, it is hard to overestimate how effective Philadelphia has been year in and out at replenishing their talent. They have a mix of players, each in the top half at their spots in all position groups.

While this post wasn't supposed to be about Vick, it does start and end with him. Vick, the player he is now, will carry the team.

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Tuesday, November 16, 2010

TWO!!!

Thursday night football kicked off with a bang with two 6-2 teams facing off. The Ravens looked flat to start and it had the makings of a blow-out, but wound up being an exceptionally entertaining game. It also came with several story-lines at the end of it. Wow, Matt Ryan morphed into an elite QB before our eyes! Wow, the reffing in the game was questionable! Wow, Joe Flacco can't get off to a good start on the road! Wow, the Ravens defense is no longer one to be feared!

Lost in the shuffle of the hoop-la was a terrible decision by Mike Smith that almost wound up costing the Falcons the game. Early in the 4th quarter, Ryan dumped the ball off to Roddy White for a touchdown that seemed like it may have been the nail in the coffin for the Ravens. The score put the Falcons up 19-7 with 11:39 to play.

And Mike Smith sent in the kicking team to kick the extra point.

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Sunday, November 14, 2010

LA Times: How Complicit?

Canal Street Chronicles poster MtnExile with a post yesterday that is already gathering momentum around the internet (later).

If Reggie is such a "good dude," why is he not welcome on the USC campus?

Why did the school send his Heisman Trophy back?



Why is USC going to have to vacate its 2004 Bowl Championship Series title?



Why is USC going to lose 30 football scholarships, pending appeal, over the next three seasons?



Why can't USC go to a bowl game this year and next?



Bush was a fraud because he presented himself as something he was not — a good guy. He and his parents, according to the NCAA report, brazenly broke clear-cut rules and he didn't seem to care what impact this might have on his school or his teammates.

Everyone was on Reggie's bus until he threw everyone under it.

Okay, seems reasonable. However it fails to note that the Bush scandal was only the leading edge of the mountain of violations that Pete Carroll seems to have committed or allowed while head coach at USC, including this and this.

So naturally Saints fans are a little miffed that Bush is being blamed for the destruction of the USC football program, his powers so vast that he corrupted O.J. Mayo and the USC basketball program as well.

Anyhow, MtnExile with a decisive counterpunch to Dufresne's attack on Bush.

I'm not going to defend Reggie. Instead, I’m going to practice what we like to call "deflection." That is, I’m going to make this about you, Chris Dufresne. You and the LA Times.



I notice there’s another story currently on your site: More NCAA trouble for USC football? Seems Pete Carroll did something that violated NCAA rules. I’m shocked, shocked…along with, approximately, the other 300 million Americans who knew for years that Carroll was running a dirty program. They just weren’t in any position to dig for the truth.



But you were.

And yet, from the LA Times we heard…nothing. Not a peep, except how great Carroll and the Trojans were, until finally Yahoo broke the biggest sports story of the year in your own backyard. Now it turns out there is seemingly no end to the trouble that Carroll caused for USC. Now you report. Why didn’t you have the story then?



I can only think of two possibilities: either the sports staff at the LA Times was collectively so inept and clueless that they never noticed the stench of fraud seeping from campus…or you knew all about it, and chose to enable USC in their coverup, and now you’re only angry at Bush because he ruined your cozy relationship and, incidentally, embarrassed you in front of the whole country when you got scooped.



Which is it, Chris? How do explain Bill Plaschke stating that "Carroll has worked hard to build that rare dynasty that follows the rules"—after Yahoo had already broken the story? Are you guys evil, or just stupid?

Game, set ...

Indeed. How stupid does Dufresne and the Times think we are that we would accept some Cock and Bull that all of USC's issues distill to Reggie Bush and that Carroll, et al were oblivious to this. Are we really supposed to believe that not one coach or administrator involved with the USC athletic program noticed that Joe McKnight - whose family lost everything in Katrina - all of a sudden had enough money for a Land Rover?

Worse though, and more to MtnExile's point, where was the Times? How could you possibly not know? The press pays for access. We know this. The currency though is principle. You abandoned your journalistic integrity, you become an apologist and cheerleader for our program, you get more access. Don't look at the man behind the curtain Dufresne. Being Pete Carroll's mouthpiece is too doggone profitable.

and finally, as promised. At the time of this post, MtnExile's rant has been reposted 9 times around the internet in its first 13 hours.

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Thursday, November 11, 2010

Why is NFL Network so bad?

Sitting here and watching the NFL Network's broadcast of the Ravens/Falcons game, and I'm struck by how awful the coverage is. One of the first plays from scrimage, they didn't catch the snap cause they were off somewhere else. They have Bob Papa who's mediocre at best as a play-by-play man. And their color guys are two of the worst in the league in Matt Millen and Joe Theismann. And those three are an upgrade from Bryant Gumbel.

And it strikes me, how is the NFL putting out such a poor product? Their sports-casting show is pretty solid, headlined by Rich Eisen who I think is terrific. They have the weight of the league behind them which is a 30 ton gorilla. And they can't find a way to put together a better production team than this?

Disappointing to say the least.

Sunday, November 7, 2010

Using Average Value To Evaluate Drafts

Pro Football Reference has a proprietary statistic called Approximate Value, developed as a method to evaluate players across eras.


Year Player Pick # Career AV
1995 Derrick Brooks 28 138
Warren Sapp 12 117
Curtis Martin 74 101
Steve McNair 3 100
Kevin Carter 6 89
Ty Law 23 85
Kerry Collins 5 83
Joey Galloway 8 78
Terrell Davis 196 73
Hugh Douglas 16 71
Tie Ruben Brown 14 71 Top Ten Total: 935

1996 Ray Lewis 26 143
Marvin Harrison 19 124
Terrell Owens 89 116
Zach Thomas 154 115
Jonathon Ogden 4 101
Brian Dawkins 61 100
La'Roi Glover 161 91
Willie Anderson 10 89
Simeon Rice 3 88
Muhsin Muhammed 43 82 Top Ten Total: 1049

1997 Jason Taylor 73 115
Ronde Barber 66 110
Tony Gonzalez 13 102
Orlando Pace 1 101
Tiki Barber 36 100
Walter Jones 6 96
Warrick Dunn 12 95
Sam Madison 44 87
James Farrior 8 86
Derrick Mason 98 82 Top Ten Total: 974

1998 Peyton Manning 1 153
Randy Moss 21 120
Alan Faneca 26 90
Fred Taylor 9 87
Charles Woodson 4 86
Hines Ward 92 83
Ahman Green 76 80
Jeremiah Trotter 72 74
Matt Hasselbeck 187 73
Flozell Adams 38 73 Top Ten Total: 919

1999 Edgerrin James 4 114
Donovan McNabb 2 102
Champ Bailey 7 101
Torry Holt 6 100
Daunte Culpepper 11 86
Joey Porter 73 84
Chris McAlister 10 73
Jevon Kearse 16 70
Ricky Williams 5 70
Donald Driver 213 69 Top Ten Total: 869

2000 Tom Brady 199 104
Brian Urlacher 9 97
Jamal Lewis 5 69
Keith Bullock 30 68
Shaun Alexander 19 68
John Abraham 13 68
Laveranues Coles 78 67
Plaxico Burress 8 66
Adalius Thomas 186 64
Julian Peterson 16 64 Top Ten Total: 735


Okay, so what do we learn? Well, one thing is that I grossly underestimated the value of a couple of extra years to Career AV. But even with those years it looks like Tom Brady aside, the 2000 draft was awful for star power. That total won't get pushed up much. Half of those guys are retired and only Brady is still contributing at a particularly high level. There really aren't too many guys who are still active who will push their way up the list.

And golly! What a powerful draft in 1996, and three of those guys still active. Lawyer Milloy may also push his way into that top ten before he is done. He is sitting at 78 Career AV and having a pretty good year in Seattle.

I like the process. I think the next step is to work backward to 1990. Well, gotta include Barry Sanders, so 1989. Get a look at what these top tens look like when the players really are completely retired and try to get an idea of how much that total grows on an annual basis. Right now I really don't know how 735 in 2000 compares to 869 in 1999 to 919 in 1998, except to see that the slope is non-linear (not shocking).





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Saturday, November 6, 2010

Jim McMahon: My Memory's Gone

Jim McMahon at the 25th reunion of the 1985 Bear team;


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Friday, November 5, 2010

Cowboys next coach

Not too soon, is it?

The Balimore Sun's Mike Preston proposes an interesting choice:

Cowboys should hire Brian Billick

Preston makes a good case.

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Cowboys In Training Camp Mode

So Wade Phillips is putting the Cowboys back into training camp mode. What exactly does this mean?

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To My Friends In Dallas

I thought you guys could use a little help.

The mind is a strange thing, men.

We must begin by asking it...

..."What is losing?"

Losing is a disease...

...as contagious as polio.

Losing is a disease...

...as contagious as syphilis.

Losing is a disease...

...as contagious as bubonic plague...

... attacking one...

... but infecting all.

But curable.

Now, I want you to imagine...

...you are on a ship at sea...

...on a vast...

...gently rocking.

Gently rocking.

Gently rocking.

Gently rocking.
Hope that helps!

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Monday, November 1, 2010

Monday Tidbits - Week 8

Changing the format of this thing a bit cause this week just played out the strangeness of the NFL. Here are some random thoughts on the parity, and the craziness, we're seeing.

- The Oakland Raiders, a combined 31-87 their past 118 prior games, have just won two games in a row on the road by a combined score of 92-17. I don't particularly care if those two games were against the two worst teams in the NFL (and the Seahawks, while not great, are certainly not in that category). If you're beating two teams on the road 92-17, you're not a bad football team.

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