"They're taking their ball and going home"

While I do my shopping on the weekends, I enjoy listening to various financial podcasts. One of the ones I enjoy is Freakanomics. This week's was titled "Millionaires vs. Billionaires." When I downloaded it, I thought maybe it'd be a discussion about the difference in attitude/work ethics/something that enables someone to be a billionaire instead of just a millionaire, or maybe something like that. So it surprised me a bit when the Monday Night Football music opened the show, and they said "Are you ready...for some labor negotiations?"

It was really interesting to listen to folks with an eye toward the financial side of thing speak for about a half hour on the subject. The really good part of this? Well, two things made this one stand out to me. First, these aren't a couple nerds just spewing on about the CBA from a financial sense; these are football fans lending insight into a side of the business of which they are experts.

Second, they don't just talk about it, they go out and speak with the major players in the battle. They spoke with DeMaurice Smith, Drew Brees, Brandon Jackson and others about it. The line they used was, "This week, team owners and the players union are behind closed doors with a federal mediator, and none of them are talking to the press. Fortunately, we spoke to everyone last week."

The podcast was an interesting look at things. I won't go into the details of it, there's too much for this to remain a short post, and I've linked where you can get it above. I'll just suggest you to go out and download it and give it a listen. I think there's a lot of interesting, and probably unknown, information out there for everyone.

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Waves and Waves of Quarterbacks

It's human nature to find patterns in just about everything and it's human nature to assume that any pattern that repeats itself is a trend.

This of course is entirely wrong.

But still, it's fun to point to This Thing and exclaim that it's just like That Thing and then to cast your gaze to the future to try to pinpoint the Next Thing.

So with that introduction, I am now declaring another Thing: Quarterbacks enter the league in waves. Oh, it's true. About every 7-10 years we see another wave of quarterbacks and since it's happened at least five times now it is therefore a certifiable Trend.

Consider; from 1970 - '73 the NFL saw Bradshaw, Phipps, Plunkett, Manning, Pastorini, Dickey, Ken Anderson, Theisman, Sipe, Bert Jones, Jaworski, Ferguson and Fouts enter the league (1972 was a lean year with only Brian Sipe and he would sit behind Phipps for a half decade). This was 13 starting quarterbacks in a league that had 26 teams. It followed a long dry period that stretched back to '61. The immediately preceding years, '66-'69 saw only Griese, Stabler and Landry as successful multiyear starters.

The next wave was brief but powerful. From 1983-85 quarterbacks Kelly, Elway, O'Brien, Marino, Hebert, Esiason, Hostetler, Schroeder, Young, and Cunningham became pros. Using some wishy-washy language because I want to include Kelly, Hebert and Young who started in the USFL.

There were choppier waters for a number of years after '85. There was a small spike on schedule from '93-'95 with Bledsoe, Brunnell, Trent Green, Dilfer, Frerotte, McNair, Kerry Collins and Kordell Stewart but this seems to lack both the magnitude and star power of previous one. I would like to argue that this is - in part - because the previous wave was still doing so well. Elway still had championships ahead of him, Young was the best quarterback in the league. Moon and Aikman were also in the mix. There wasn't as much of a void to fill as there had been previously.

I count the next wave from 1998-2001 with Peyton Manning, Brian Greise, Hasselbeck, McNabb, Culpepper, Aaron Brooks, Pennington, Bulger, Brady, Vick, and Brees. A wave that has more pure star power than depth.

Before fast forwarding, have to account for Kurt Warner and Jeff Garcia in here somewhere. They both could be included in the min-'90s wave since they both left college in 1994. They also could be included in the late '90s wave since they both joined the NFL during that time. Either way, their inclusion significantly enhances the power of either wave. Counting those guys, the 1990s was a little aberrant with two smaller chops rather than the big waves of the 1970s and 1980s.

Finally, looking at 2011. This was kind of the impetus for this post. It looks like the recent wave has petered out. Obviously we won't know this for a few years, but the quality of quarterback prospect this year doesn't seem to be close to prior ones. Andrew Luck remains on the horizon and he is the consensus All Everything right now, but like Matt Leinart, Brian Brohm and Jake Locker before him we will see how wise his return to Stanford will be.

So I am prematurely counting the current wave from 2008 - 2010. If so, we can begin to measure it too.

First, does it meet the criteria for a wave? It appears to. The prior three years had poor quarterback classes. There are some names still, but realistically the best quarterback from the '07 draft was Kolb. From the '06 draft Cutler. From the '05 draft Rodgers and Orton with no depth behind them. Meanwhile Alex Smith, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jamarcus Russell and Brady Quinn each flamed out to varying degrees. I'm not sure who I'd say is 'next best' after Kolb. Probably either Jason Campbell or Ryan Fitzpatrick (yikes!).

The second component of the criteria is whether a large enough group of quality quarterbacks and additional depth entered the league. Again, the answer appears to be yes. From 2008 we have Ryan, Flacco, Henne, Dixon, Josh Johnson, Flynn, Hanie, Stafford, Sanchez, Freeman, Bradford, Tebow and McCoy. All of those guys appear to be able to play. Additionally there are guys like McGee, Claussen, Pike, Rusty Smith, Skelton and Max Hall who might still be able to craft careers.

Again, it's hard to know how this will shake out. Clearly there are a lot more questions about this entire group than there are about the 1970 guys or the 1983 guys. Even so though, Matt Ryan and Josh Freeman have already reached stardom. Joe Flacco, Mark Sanchez and Sam Bradford are awfully close. If Matt Stafford can shake his injuries he has as much raw talent as any of those guys and was very productive in 2010 when he was on the field.

The last wave is rapidly aging, or even aged. Regardless of the 2011 or 2012 draft, the next group of starters and stars will almost certainly be heavily populated by the 2008 wave, with a couple of others like Roethlisberger, Rivers and Schaub thrown in.

I call the next wave: 2019

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Oh Albert!

Haynesworth is yet again making headlines, this time for allegedly sexually assaulting a waitress over the weekend. But this story just comes off as ridiculous.

The Washington Post states, “According to the police report, a waitress at the W Hotel stated that her hands were full as she cleared a table Haynesworth was sitting at around 1:30 a.m. Sunday.”

The report said Haynesworth, identified as Subject 1, tried to give the waitress his credit card and asked to place it in her blouse. The waitress nodded and Haynesworth placed the card in her blouse and began caressing her breast.

I'm sorry, what?

Now, I'm fully supportive of the idea that a woman wearing provocative clothing and flirting over drinks is really just asking to be raped. However, a woman that says essentially, "Yes, please put the money in my top," and then claims that she was touched inappropriately has to be looked at with a suspicious eye. I'm no Haynesworth fan (OBTW I was right ), but I've got to think it's nothing less than 50/50 that this woman is completely full of it.

Still, you can't help but wonder if this guy is worth any of the trouble. Even if he is totally innocent here, if the guy really asked if he could put the credit card in her blouse, is that someone you want? After all the trouble he's caused this year?

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Both Ghastly And Dire

Rolling Stone, the arbiter of All Things Cool, dug deep into their collective pocket thesaurus to describe the Super Bowl halftime show. The result, while expected, not pretty. Ghastly, dire, nightmarish trip off the pages. They do stop for a moment to deliver an actual review:

Alas, the one and only Fergie proved she’s not Axl, because their version of GNR’s “Sweet Child O’Mine” was a nightmare, all bitchslap rapping and cocaine tongue getting nothing done. Even Usher looked embarrassed.

Why Couldn't You Guys Have Just Gotten Stuck Up There?

The Super Bowl wasn't a total loss, entertainment-wise, at least not from my perspective. Jerry Jones in his vainglorius attempt to set a Super Bowl attendance record forgot to consult the fire marshal before setting up a few hundred temporary seats (at $900 a pop). Oops. Out you go with the other tv watchers.

Even better, even with Jerry's fake attendance boosting attempts he failed to set the record. Hell, he didn't even have the best attended event at Jerry Bowl.

Between the Peas, the abomination called Christina Aguilera's anthem, ice shooting off the stadium and crushing bystanders on top of the Cowboys' annual in-season meltdown, the game was a huge success. I doubt that Jones' ego has shrunk enough to fit into the shrine he built, but maybe it can fit into Texas now.

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Who has the upper hand?

With the impending lock-out, a lot of what we're hearing in the media seems to be that the owners will eventually break the players. But recently I have heard tidbits here and there that indicate the owners may not have as much leverage as they want us to believe. Three examples:

First, the league has been telling us for months how fans want 18 regular season games. Yet a new poll, not conducted by the NFL, is indicating otherwise.

Of everyone surveyed, 27 percent strongly favor or somewhat favor adding two regular-season games and dropping two preseason games. When the group is narrowed to those identifying themselves as NFL fans, support for the change rises to a total of 45 percent — yet only 18 percent who strongly favor it.

Suddenly, it's not just the players and even the occasional executive pushing back on the 18 game schedule; the fans themselves are saying they either don't care, or outright don't want it.

Second, owners speculate the players will cave once they begin to lose game checks. But the NFLPA warned the players that they should begin saving before the season ended. And from recent media reports, it sounds as though the players have taken the advice to heart. Players aren't as rich as the billionaire owners who can afford for games not to be played. But if there's no threat that players will be hurt financially, how much pressure does it put back on the owners with millions in lost revenue likely?

Third, the NFLPA is fighting back against clubs acting like it's business as usual this off-season, claiming teams cannot use the franchise tag. If teams can't use franchise tags until a new labor agreement is reached (and I agree with the players' side of the argument...how can a team use a tag if we don't know if tags will exist in the new CBA?), they're at risk of losing their best players in free agency with no compensation once a new deal is signed.

I used to believe the owners held all the cards. Now I'm not so sure. To me, it appears the players have a pretty powerful position themselves. And two greedy groups at each other's throats in positions of power can stall a new deal signing for a long time.

That means the real loser in this fight is most likely to be us, the fans.

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5 Year Record

I I like to get this posted before the Super Bowl. Sorry to slide it in just under the wire – I totally forgot!

In the table below, ties are broken by postseason wins, where applicable, under the theory that one postseason win is worth more than one reg season win. It's a slightly greater accomplishment. Thus Indy is ranked ahead of the Pats. Ties remaining after that are broken by the most recent playoff record, under the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately-in-the-playoffs theory. Thus the Packers are ahead of the Giants. It used to be that ties remaining after that were ignored, because Excel 1997-2003 would only sort on three categories at once; but I'm on Excel 2007 now, so I added a sort on most recent reg season wins, under the reg season what-have-you-done-for-me-lately theory. However, that didn't help this year, so we have no way to tell the difference between the Texans and the Panthers, or the Dolphins and the Redskins. Eh, who cares.

For comparison, last year's list is here.

Team	Reg season							Post season							Grand Total
	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	Sum		2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	Sum
Indianapolis Colts	12	13	12	14	10	61		4			2		6		67
New England Patriots	12	16	11	10	14	63		2	2				4		67
San Diego Chargers	14	11	8	13	9	55			2	1			3		58
Pittsburgh Steelers	8	10	12	9	12	51				3		2	5		56
Baltimore Ravens	13	5	11	9	12	50				2	1	1	4		54
New Orleans Saints	10	7	8	13	11	49		1			3		4		53
Green Bay Packers	8	13	6	11	10	48			1			3	4		52
New York Giants	8	10	12	8	10	48			4				4		52
Philadelphia Eagles	10	8	9.5	11	10	48.5		1		2			3		51.5
Chicago Bears	13	7	9	7	11	47		2				1	3		50
Dallas Cowboys	9	13	9	11	6	48					1		1		49
New York Jets	10	4	9	9	11	43					2	2	4		47
Tennessee Titans	8	10	13	8	6	45							0		45
Atlanta Falcons	7	4	11	9	13	44							0		44
Minnesota Vikings	6	8	10	12	6	42					1		1		43
Arizona Cardinals	5	8	9	10	5	37				3	1		4		41
Jacksonville Jaguars	8	11	5	7	8	39			1				1		40
Seattle Seahawks	9	10	4	5	7	35		1	1			1	3		38
Houston Texans	6	8	8	9	6	37							0		37
Carolina Panthers	8	7	12	8	2	37							0		37
Denver Broncos	9	7	8	8	4	36							0		36
Tampa Bay Buccnrs	4	9	9	3	10	35							0		35
Cincinnati Bengals	8	7	4.5	10	4	33.5							0		33.5
San Francisco 49ers	7	5	7	8	6	33							0		33
Miami Dolphins	6	1	11	7	7	32							0		32
Washington Redskins	5	9	8	4	6	32							0		32
Buffalo Bills	7	7	7	6	4	31							0		31
Kansas City Chiefs	9	4	2	4	10	29							0		29
Cleveland Browns	4	10	4	5	5	28							0		28
Oakland Raiders	2	4	5	5	8	24							0		24
St. Louis Rams	8	3	2	1	7	21							0		21
Detroit Lions	3	7	0	2	6	18							0		18

My rule of thumb is, any team with a grand total of 45 or over is doing something right. That's an average winning record, nine wins per year, in a league where winning at all (let alone winning consistently) is extremely difficult. These are the best organizations in the sport.

Note technically a total of 40.5 or better represents a “winning” record, barely. That would average out to 4 yrs of 8-8 and one year of 8-7-1. I personally think that is nothing to write home about: but it beats losing. These teams in the 41-44 win category are in a second tier. The Falcons are very likely to be in the next tier up next season.

Indy and New England have been on top of this list for several years now. I guess that's what happens when you get the two best QBs in the game, along with decent to good defenses. But notice it's been 3 full seasons now since the Pats have won a playoff game. I anticipate Pittsburgh moving into a top 3 spot next season. The Packers and Giants will also have 8-win seasons coming off the books. San Diego should swoon, as their last 14-win season under Marty will come off the books. Can you believe it's been 5 years since they let Marty go? Next year's entry will be all Norv.

Among other anticipated risers, the Falcons should move up a bit next year, as their 7-win season 2006 season will come off the books. And I see Detroit moving their win total up into the 20s, as their 3-win 2006 will drop off. Will that be enough to move the Lions out of the bottom spot? I don't know. That zero will weigh them down for a couple more years, and I see Oakland & St Louis as improving. The bottom could drop out for Cleveland or Buffalo, maybe. Heck, maybe even Kansas City.

Baltimore will need to have another excellent season next year, as good as this one, to avoid falling on this list. Could happen. How would you like to be a Ravens fan? This table shows just what it looks like to fans in Baltimore: one friggin game behind the Steelers. Of course it doesn't suck to be #5 on this list: that's awesome. But you're still looking up at Pittsburgh. Worse if they win this weekend.

Go Packers?

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The Sloppy Roethlisberger

Must ... eat ...

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