5 Year Record

In the table below, ties are broken by postseason wins, where applicable, under the theory that one postseason win is worth more than one reg season win. It's a slightly greater accomplishment. Thus Indy is listed ahead of the Steelers, and the Giants over the Chargers. Ties remaining after that are broken by the most recent reg season record, under the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately theory. Thus Panthers ahead of Dolphins; likewise Lions over Raiders, and Bills over Buccs over Skins.

For comparison, last season's list is here.

Team	Reg season							Post season							Grand Total
	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	Sum		2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	Sum
New England Patriots	10	14	13	12	12	61				2	1	1	4		65
Green Bay Packers	11	10	15	11	8.5	55.5			4		1		5		60.5
New Orleans Saints	13	11	13	7	11	55		3		1		1	5		60
Baltimore Ravens	9	12	12	10	8	51		1	1	1	4		7		58
San Francisco 49ers	8	6	13	11.5	12	50.5				1	2	2	5		55.5
Indianapolis Colts	14	10	2	11	11	48		2				1	3		51
Pittsburgh Steelers	9	12	12	8	8	49			2				2		51
Atlanta Falcons	9	13	10	13	4	49					1		1		50
Denver Broncos	8	4	8	13	13	46				1		2	3		49
Seattle Seahawks	5	7	7	11	13	43			1		1	3	5		48
New York Giants	8	10	9	9	7	43				4			4		47
San Diego Chargers	13	9	8	7	9	46						1	1		47
New York Jets	9	11	8	6	8	42		2	2				4		46
Chicago Bears	7	11	8	10	8	44			1				1		45
Cincinnati Bengals	10	4	9	10	11	44							0		44
Philadelphia Eagles	11	10	8	4	10	43							0		43
Dallas Cowboys	11	6	8	8	8	41		1					1		42
Houston Texans	9	6	10	12	2	39				1	1		2		41
Arizona Cardinals	10	5	8	5	10	38		1					1		39
Minnesota Vikings	12	6	3	10	5.5	36.5		1					1		37.5
Tennessee Titans	8	6	9	6	7	36							0		36
Carolina Panthers	8	2	6	7	12	35							0		35
Miami Dolphins	7	7	6	7	8	35							0		35
Kansas City Chiefs	4	10	7	2	11	34							0		34
Detroit Lions	2	6	10	4	7	29							0		29
Oakland Raiders	5	8	8	4	4	29							0		29
Buffalo Bills	6	4	6	6	6	28							0		28
Tampa Bay Buccnrs	3	10	4	7	4	28							0		28
Washington Redskins	4	6	5	10	3	28							0		28
Jacksonville Jaguars	7	8	5	2	4	26							0		26
St. Louis Rams	1	7	2	7.5	7	24.5							0		24.5
Cleveland Browns	5	5	4	5	4	23							0		23

Seriously, who is at all surprised to see the Pats at the top of this list? What Bill Belichick has accomplished over the years is amazing. Five game ahead of the next closest team! Thirteen wins a year despite constant churn among receivers and TEs, and with a rebuilding project on D. It will be fascinating to see how that team handles the transition from Brady; but they have positioned themselves extremely well. Between Mallett and Garoppolo, one of those guys can probably play QB. Remembering Matt Cassell in 2008, it's hard to believe the Pats will miss a beat when they trot out one of those guys.

The top 3 just underlines why we regard those 3 QBs so highly: Peyton would be there too if he hadn't missed a year and changed teams.

Continuing on down the list, the top TWELVE teams are all organizations that have had unquestioned answers to their QB question. The list really emphasizes what a tautology it is in the NFL: winning = having a solution at QB = winning.

My rule of thumb is, any team with a grand total of 45 or over is doing something right. That's an average winning record, nine wins per year, in a league where winning at all (let alone winning consistently) is extremely difficult. These are the most successful organizations in the sport. The Bears are right at that line, the Jets just ahead and the Bengals just behind. Those are three interesting teams, and I think they illustrate something: perennially pretty good teams, but stuck in divisions with monsters (Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and the Ravens/Steelers). It's a tough way to live.

Note technically a total of 40.5 or better represents a “winning” record, barely. That would average out to 4 yrs of 8-8 and one year of 8-7-1. I personally think that is nothing to write home about: but it beats losing. These teams in the 41 to 44 win category are in a second tier. This year it's Cincy, the Pheagles, Cowboyz and Texans. Dallas lives here, which I find very satisfying. Cincy and Philly are are good teams with one bad year of the last 5 which drags them down. They'd have to win 11 or 12 games this year to climb out of this mid-range.

At the other end of the spectrum: the Brownies are an object lesson in the result of churning philosophies and leadership. They are six games behind the Raiders < shudder >. It seems safe to project them into the same spot next year; them or Jax. St Louis will make a big move up this list next year, when their 1-win 2009 season comes off the books. Detroit already made a big move up this year, as their oh-fer in '08 finally dropped off the books, and they will get another bounce next year (even if they have a weak season), as their 2-win 2009 comes off.

Read more...

5 Year Record

Updated:

Team	Reg season							Post season							Grand Total
	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	Sum		2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	Sum
Baltimore Ravens	11	9	12	12	10	54		2	1	1	1	4	9		63
New England Patriots	11	10	14	13	12	60					2	1	3		63
Green Bay Packers	6	11	10	15	11	53				4		1	5		58
Pittsburgh Steelers	12	9	12	12	8	53		3		2			5		58
Atlanta Falcons	11	9	13	10	13	56						1	1		57
New Orleans Saints	8	13	11	13	7	52			3		1		4		56
New York Giants	12	8	10	9	9	48					4		4		52
Indianapolis Colts	12	14	10	2	11	49			2				2		51
San Francisco 49ers	7	8	6	13	11.5	45.5					1	2	3		48.5
New York Jets	9	9	11	8	6	43			2	2			4		47
Houston Texans	8	9	6	10	12	45					1	1	2		47
Chicago Bears	9	7	11	8	10	45				1			1		46
San Diego Chargers	8	13	9	8	7	45		1					1		46
Philadelphia Eagles	9.5	11	10	8	4	42.5		2					2		44.5
Dallas Cowboys	9	11	6	8	8	42			1				1		43
Denver Broncos	8	8	4	8	13	41					1		1		42
Minnesota Vikings	10	12	6	3	10	41			1				1		42
Tennessee Titans	13	8	6	9	6	42							0		42
Arizona Cardinals	9	10	5	8	5	37		3	1				4		41
Miami Dolphins	11	7	7	6	7	38							0		38
Cincinnati Bengals	4.5	10	4	9	10	37.5							0		37.5
Seattle Seahawks	4	5	7	7	11	34				1		1	2		36
Carolina Panthers	12	8	2	6	7	35							0		35
Washington Redskins	8	4	6	5	10	33							0		33
Tampa Bay Buccnrs	9	3	10	4	7	33							0		33
Oakland Raiders	5	5	8	8	4	30							0		30
Buffalo Bills	7	6	4	6	6	29							0		29
Jacksonville Jaguars	5	7	8	5	2	27							0		27
Kansas City Chiefs	2	4	10	7	2	25							0		25
Cleveland Browns	4	5	5	4	5	23							0		23
Detroit Lions	0	2	6	10	4	22							0		22
St. Louis Rams	2	1	7	2	7.5	19.5							0		19.5

Ravens #1, baby.

In the table, ties are broken by postseason wins, where applicable, under the theory that one postseason win is worth more than one reg season win. It's a slightly greater accomplishment. Thus the Ravens are #1 ahead of the Patriots! Also the Jets get the nod over the Texans, and the Vikings over the Titans. Ties remaining after that are broken by the most recent reg season record, under the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately theory. Thus Packers ahead of Steelers; likewise Bears over Chargers, Broncos over Vikings, and Redskins over Buccaneers.

For comparison, last season's list is here.

The main reason Baltimore moves up 45 spots from last season, is that their 5-win 2007 season came off the books, while they posted another good great year. For the first time the chart includes only the Harbaugh-Flacco era Ravens.

More interestingly, the Patriots stays at the top even though their Imperfect Season dropped off the chart. First, of course they had another great season. Second: the #s 2-3-4-5 teams from last year were Green Bay, Pittsburgh, the Giants and the Saints. Pittsburgh and New Orleans had mediocre seasons this year. The Packers and Giants had good seasons; but like the Patriots, they had great seasons drop off the back end of the list. Last year, the first season on the chart was Brett Favre's last season in Green Bay: they won 13 reg season games and advanced to the conference finals. They lost to the Giants, who rendered the Pats season Imperfect. So even though the Pats had 16 wins drop from their chart before the season began, the Packers and Giants each had 14 wins drop off, and couldn't catch up.

My rule of thumb is, any team with a grand total of 45 or over is doing something right. That's an average winning record, nine wins per year, in a league where winning at all (let alone winning consistently) is extremely difficult. These are the most successful organizations in the sport. Note that the Chargers are just on the right side of this line, which I find somewhat surprising. Also note that the Eagles are just half a game out of this. Considering the debacle there this year, that really points out how consistently excellent even the tail end of Andy Reid's tenure was.

Note technically a total of 40.5 or better represents a “winning” record, barely. That would average out to 4 yrs of 8-8 and one year of 8-7-1. I personally think that is nothing to write home about: but it beats losing. These teams in the 41-44 win category are in a second tier. It's nice to see Dallas firmly in mid-tier territory. I assume Denver is trending up for another couple seasons. Minnesota will have trouble breaking up out of this tier: they would need to win 10 and 12 over the next two seasons, just to stay where they are. Seattle and maybe Cincinnati should move into this tier next season.

At the other end of the spectrum: man St Louis is horrendous. But they seem to be moving up. Detroit will get a bounce next year, as their big zero comes off the books. Even a bad record would move them up. I'm not sure who to project into the bottom spot for next season. Maybe Jax?

Read more...

5 Year Record

Back to our regularly scheduled time, the week between the conf championships and the Super Bowl.  Yes, I am particularly enjoying this list, this week.

In the table below, ties are broken by postseason wins, where applicable, under the theory that one postseason win is worth more than one reg season win. It's a slightly greater accomplishment. Thus the Jets get the nod over the Texans, and the Vikings over the Titans. Ties remaining after that are broken by the most recent reg season record, under the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately theory. Thus Packers ahead of Steelers; likewise Bears over Chargers, Broncos over Vikings, and Redskins over Buccaneers.

For comparison, last season's list is here.

Team	Reg season							Post season							Grand Total
	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	Sum		2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	Sum
New England Patriots	11	10	14	13	12	60					2	1	3		63
Baltimore Ravens	11	9	12	12	10	54		2	1	1	1	3	8		62
Green Bay Packers	6	11	10	15	11	53				4		1	5		58
Pittsburgh Steelers	12	9	12	12	8	53		3		2			5		58
Atlanta Falcons	11	9	13	10	13	56						1	1		57
New Orleans Saints	8	13	11	13	7	52			3		1		4		56
New York Giants	12	8	10	9	9	48					4		4		52
Indianapolis Colts	12	14	10	2	11	49			2				2		51
San Francisco 49ers	7	8	6	13	11.5	45.5					1	2	3		48.5
New York Jets	9	9	11	8	6	43			2	2			4		47
Houston Texans	8	9	6	10	12	45					1	1	2		47
Chicago Bears	9	7	11	8	10	45				1			1		46
San Diego Chargers	8	13	9	8	7	45		1					1		46
Philadelphia Eagles	9.5	11	10	8	4	42.5		2					2		44.5
Dallas Cowboys	9	11	6	8	8	42			1				1		43
Denver Broncos	8	8	4	8	13	41					1		1		42
Minnesota Vikings	10	12	6	3	10	41			1				1		42
Tennessee Titans	13	8	6	9	6	42							0		42
Arizona Cardinals	9	10	5	8	5	37		3	1				4		41
Miami Dolphins	11	7	7	6	7	38							0		38
Cincinnati Bengals	4.5	10	4	9	10	37.5							0		37.5
Seattle Seahawks	4	5	7	7	11	34				1		1	2		36
Carolina Panthers	12	8	2	6	7	35							0		35
Washington Redskins	8	4	6	5	10	33							0		33
Tampa Bay Buccnrs	9	3	10	4	7	33							0		33
Oakland Raiders	5	5	8	8	4	30							0		30
Buffalo Bills	7	6	4	6	6	29							0		29
Jacksonville Jaguars	5	7	8	5	2	27							0		27
Kansas City Chiefs	2	4	10	7	2	25							0		25
Cleveland Browns	4	5	5	4	5	23							0		23
Detroit Lions	0	2	6	10	4	22							0		22
St. Louis Rams	2	1	7	2	7.5	19.5							0		19.5

Re positions 1 and 2: you bet your ass that if the outcome next weekend goes a certain way, I will re-post this list recalculated. The main reason Baltimore moves up 4 spots from last season, is that their 5-win 2007 season came off the books, while they posted another good year. For the first time the chart includes only the Harbaugh-Flacco era Ravens.

More interestingly, the Patriots stay in the top spot even though their Imperfect Season dropped off the chart. First, of course they had another great season. Second: the #s 2-3-4-5 teams from last year were Green Bay, Pittsburgh, the Giants and the Saints. Pittsburgh and New Orleans had mediocre seasons this year. The Packers and Giants had good seasons; but like the Patriots, they had great seasons drop off the back end of the list. Last year, the first season on the chart was Brett Favre's last season in Green Bay: they won 13 reg season games and advanced to the conference finals. They lost to the Giants, who rendered the Pats season Imperfect. So even though the Pats had 16 wins drop from their chart before the season began, the Packers and Giants each had 14 wins drop off, and couldn't catch up.

My rule of thumb is, any team with a grand total of 45 or over is doing something right. That's an average winning record, nine wins per year, in a league where winning at all (let alone winning consistently) is extremely difficult. These are the most successful organizations in the sport. Note that the Chargers are just on the right side of this line, which I find somewhat surprising. Also note that the Eagles are just half a game out of this. Considering the debacle there this year, that really points out how consistently excellent event the tail end of Andy Reid's tenure was.

Note technically a total of 40.5 or better represents a “winning” record, barely. That would average out to 4 yrs of 8-8 and one year of 8-7-1. I personally think that is nothing to write home about: but it beats losing. These teams in the 41-44 win category are in a second tier. It's nice to see Dallas firmly in mid-tier territory. I assume Denver is trending up for another couple seasons. Minnesota will have trouble breaking up out of this tier: they would need to win 10 and 12 over the next two seasons, just to stay where they are. Seattle and maybe Cincinnati should move into this tier next season.

At the other end of the spectrum: man St Louis is horrendous. But they seem to be moving up. Detroit will get a bounce next year, as their big zero comes off the books. Even a bad record would move them up. I'm not sure who to project into the bottom spot for next season. Maybe Jax?

Read more...

5 Year Record

Training camps open this week! Young guys report early, vets report later in the week, and the hitting starts soon. In honor of the collective return to vivid life, here is The List.

In the table below, ties are broken by postseason wins, where applicable, under the theory that one postseason win is worth more than one reg season win. It's a slightly greater accomplishment. Thus Seattle gets the nod over Carolina & Tampa, because of the two playoff wins. Ties remaining after that are broken by the most recent reg season record, under the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately theory. Thus Packers ahead of Steelers; likewise Niners over Vikes, Carolina over Tampa, Miami over Redskins, and Oakland over Buffalo.

For comparison, last year's list is here.

Team	Reg season							Post season							Grand Total
	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	Sum		2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	Sum
New England Patriots	16	11	10	14	13	64		2				2	4		68
Green Bay Packers	13	6	11	10	15	55		1			4		5		60
Pittsburgh Steelers	10	12	9	12	12	55			3		2		5		60
New York Giants	10	12	8	10	9	49		4				4	8		57
New Orleans Saints	7	8	13	11	13	52				3		1	4		56
Baltimore Ravens	5	11	9	12	12	49			2	1	1	1	5		54
Indianapolis Colts	13	12	14	10	2	51				2			2		53
San Diego Chargers	11	8	13	9	8	49		2	1				3		52
Philadelphia Eagles	8	9.5	11	10	8	46.5			2				2		48.5
Dallas Cowboys	13	9	11	6	8	47				1			1		48
Atlanta Falcons	4	11	9	13	10	47							0		47
Tennessee Titans	10	13	8	6	9	46							0		46
New York Jets	4	9	9	11	8	41				2	2		4		45
Arizona Cardinals	8	9	10	5	8	40			3	1			4		44
Chicago Bears	7	9	7	11	8	42					1		1		43
Houston Texans	8	8	9	6	10	41						1	1		42
San Francisco 49ers	5	7	8	6	13	39						1	1		40
Minnesota Vikings	8	10	12	6	3	39				1			1		40
Jacksonville Jaguars	11	5	7	8	5	36		1					1		37
Denver Broncos	7	8	8	4	8	35						1	1		36
Seattle Seahawks	10	4	5	7	7	33		1			1		2		35
Carolina Panthers	7	12	8	2	6	35							0		35
Tampa Bay Buccnrs	9	9	3	10	4	35							0		35
Cincinnati Bengals	7	4.5	10	4	9	34.5							0		34.5
Miami Dolphins	1	11	7	7	6	32							0		32
Washington Redskins	9	8	4	6	5	32							0		32
Oakland Raiders	4	5	5	8	8	30							0		30
Buffalo Bills	7	7	6	4	6	30							0		30
Cleveland Browns	10	4	5	5	4	28							0		28
Kansas City Chiefs	4	2	4	10	7	27							0		27
Detroit Lions	7	0	2	6	10	25							0		25
St. Louis Rams	3	2	1	7	2	15							0		15

My rule of thumb is, any team with a grand total of 45 or over is doing something right. That's an average winning record, nine wins per year, in a league where winning at all (let alone winning consistently) is extremely difficult. These are the most successful organizations in the sport.

Note technically a total of 40.5 or better represents a “winning” record, barely. That would average out to 4 yrs of 8-8 and one year of 8-7-1. I personally think that is nothing to write home about: but it beats losing. These teams in the 41-44 win category are in a second tier. I anticipate Houston breaking into the next tier up next season. Maybe San Francisco too.

The usual suspects in the top 5 this year. Man, the Packers are coming off a 15-win season, the Steelers have appeared in two Super Bowls during this span, and the Giants have *won* two – and look how far ahead of everybody the Pats are. That's really impressive. They lost their starting QB one of the seasons listed here, they're supposed to have a crappy defense, and they still averaged 12.8 reg season wins plus a playoff win over the span. Unbelievable. Next year the Imperfect Season comes off the books, so they should come back to the pack a little. Or who knows, maybe Belichick will do it again.

Indy takes a bit of a tumble (they were #1 last year), they figure to fall a bit more over a couple seasons. Everyone knows they lost Manning, but the more important figure long-term is Bill Polian, who might be the best GM of all time. Who replaces him? I like Chuck Pagano very much, but who's picking the players?

If the Ravens have another of their typical Harbaugh double-digit win seasons, their win total will increase on this list. Their 5-win 2008 season will come off the books. But their peer group is tough to gain a lot of ground on: they could easily add 5 wins to their total and still move up only 1 spot.

Five full seasons since the Chargers let Marty go, and the reports of their demise have been – well I don't know, we see steady decline over the last three seasons, and it's not clear that AJ Smith is still making great draft picks. They had a decent offseason, for once. We'll see.

Man, the Rams suuuuuuuuuuuuck. 3 wins per year! Nice to see the Lions finally out of the cellar. Notable that they win 10 games and only climb up to second-worst, but they have an albatross. The zero will come off this list in a couple seasons; they seem to be building to last, so they could climb fast once they lose the anchor.

Oakland has had two respectable seasons in a row. Interesting.

Read more...

5 Year Record

I I like to get this posted before the Super Bowl. Sorry to slide it in just under the wire – I totally forgot!

In the table below, ties are broken by postseason wins, where applicable, under the theory that one postseason win is worth more than one reg season win. It's a slightly greater accomplishment. Thus Indy is ranked ahead of the Pats. Ties remaining after that are broken by the most recent playoff record, under the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately-in-the-playoffs theory. Thus the Packers are ahead of the Giants. It used to be that ties remaining after that were ignored, because Excel 1997-2003 would only sort on three categories at once; but I'm on Excel 2007 now, so I added a sort on most recent reg season wins, under the reg season what-have-you-done-for-me-lately theory. However, that didn't help this year, so we have no way to tell the difference between the Texans and the Panthers, or the Dolphins and the Redskins. Eh, who cares.

For comparison, last year's list is here.

Team	Reg season							Post season							Grand Total
	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	Sum		2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	Sum
Indianapolis Colts	12	13	12	14	10	61		4			2		6		67
New England Patriots	12	16	11	10	14	63		2	2				4		67
San Diego Chargers	14	11	8	13	9	55			2	1			3		58
Pittsburgh Steelers	8	10	12	9	12	51				3		2	5		56
Baltimore Ravens	13	5	11	9	12	50				2	1	1	4		54
New Orleans Saints	10	7	8	13	11	49		1			3		4		53
Green Bay Packers	8	13	6	11	10	48			1			3	4		52
New York Giants	8	10	12	8	10	48			4				4		52
Philadelphia Eagles	10	8	9.5	11	10	48.5		1		2			3		51.5
Chicago Bears	13	7	9	7	11	47		2				1	3		50
Dallas Cowboys	9	13	9	11	6	48					1		1		49
New York Jets	10	4	9	9	11	43					2	2	4		47
Tennessee Titans	8	10	13	8	6	45							0		45
Atlanta Falcons	7	4	11	9	13	44							0		44
Minnesota Vikings	6	8	10	12	6	42					1		1		43
Arizona Cardinals	5	8	9	10	5	37				3	1		4		41
Jacksonville Jaguars	8	11	5	7	8	39			1				1		40
Seattle Seahawks	9	10	4	5	7	35		1	1			1	3		38
Houston Texans	6	8	8	9	6	37							0		37
Carolina Panthers	8	7	12	8	2	37							0		37
Denver Broncos	9	7	8	8	4	36							0		36
Tampa Bay Buccnrs	4	9	9	3	10	35							0		35
Cincinnati Bengals	8	7	4.5	10	4	33.5							0		33.5
San Francisco 49ers	7	5	7	8	6	33							0		33
Miami Dolphins	6	1	11	7	7	32							0		32
Washington Redskins	5	9	8	4	6	32							0		32
Buffalo Bills	7	7	7	6	4	31							0		31
Kansas City Chiefs	9	4	2	4	10	29							0		29
Cleveland Browns	4	10	4	5	5	28							0		28
Oakland Raiders	2	4	5	5	8	24							0		24
St. Louis Rams	8	3	2	1	7	21							0		21
Detroit Lions	3	7	0	2	6	18							0		18

My rule of thumb is, any team with a grand total of 45 or over is doing something right. That's an average winning record, nine wins per year, in a league where winning at all (let alone winning consistently) is extremely difficult. These are the best organizations in the sport.

Note technically a total of 40.5 or better represents a “winning” record, barely. That would average out to 4 yrs of 8-8 and one year of 8-7-1. I personally think that is nothing to write home about: but it beats losing. These teams in the 41-44 win category are in a second tier. The Falcons are very likely to be in the next tier up next season.

Indy and New England have been on top of this list for several years now. I guess that's what happens when you get the two best QBs in the game, along with decent to good defenses. But notice it's been 3 full seasons now since the Pats have won a playoff game. I anticipate Pittsburgh moving into a top 3 spot next season. The Packers and Giants will also have 8-win seasons coming off the books. San Diego should swoon, as their last 14-win season under Marty will come off the books. Can you believe it's been 5 years since they let Marty go? Next year's entry will be all Norv.

Among other anticipated risers, the Falcons should move up a bit next year, as their 7-win season 2006 season will come off the books. And I see Detroit moving their win total up into the 20s, as their 3-win 2006 will drop off. Will that be enough to move the Lions out of the bottom spot? I don't know. That zero will weigh them down for a couple more years, and I see Oakland & St Louis as improving. The bottom could drop out for Cleveland or Buffalo, maybe. Heck, maybe even Kansas City.

Baltimore will need to have another excellent season next year, as good as this one, to avoid falling on this list. Could happen. How would you like to be a Ravens fan? This table shows just what it looks like to fans in Baltimore: one friggin game behind the Steelers. Of course it doesn't suck to be #5 on this list: that's awesome. But you're still looking up at Pittsburgh. Worse if they win this weekend.

Go Packers?

Read more...

5 Year Record

It's that time of year again, the lull before the Super Bowl. A good time to take a look at who have been the very best teams in the sport over the recent past.

In the table below, ties are broken by postseason wins, where applicable, under the theory that one postseason win is worth more than one reg season win. It's a slightly greater accomplishment. Thus the Saints are ranked ahead of the Jaguars and the Packers ahead of the Titans. Ties remaining after that are broken by the most recent reg season record, under the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately theory. Thus the Vikings are ahead of the Broncos, the Brownies ahead of the Chiefs, and the Raiders ahead of the Rams. Ties remaining after that are ignored, because Excel will only sort on three categories at once; but I don't think there are any examples this year.

For comparison, last year's list is here.

Team	Reg season							Post season							Grand Total
	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	Sum		2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	Sum
Indianapolis Colts	14	12	13	12	14	65			4			2	6		71
New England Patriots	10	12	16	11	10	59		1	2	2			5		64
San Diego Chargers	9	14	11	8	13	55				2	1		3		58
Pittsburgh Steelers	11	8	10	12	9	50		4			3		7		57
New York Giants	11	8	10	12	8	49				4			4		53
Dallas Cowboys	9	9	13	9	11	51						1	1		52
Chicago Bears	11	13	7	9	7	47			2				2		49
Carolina Panthers	11	8	7	12	8	46		2					2		48
Philadelphia Eagles	6	10	8	9.5	11	44.5			1		2		3		47.5
Baltimore Ravens	6	13	5	11	9	44					2	1	3		47
Minnesota Vikings	9	6	8	10	12	45						1	1		46
Denver Broncos	13	9	7	8	8	45		1					1		46
Seattle Seahawks	13	9	10	4	5	41		2	1	1			4		45
New Orleans Saints	3	10	7	8	13	41			1			2	3		44
Jacksonville Jaguars	12	8	11	5	7	43				1			1		44
Green Bay Packers	4	8	13	6	11	42				1			1		43
Tennessee Titans	4	8	10	13	8	43							0		43
Arizona Cardinals	5	5	8	9	10	37					3	1	4		41
Cincinnati Bengals	11	8	7	4.5	10	40.5							0		40.5
Atlanta Falcons	8	7	4	11	9	39							0		39
New York Jets	4	10	4	9	9	36						2	2		38
Washington Redskins	10	5	9	8	4	36		1					1		37
Tampa Bay Buccnrs	11	4	9	9	3	36							0		36
Miami Dolphins	9	6	1	11	7	34							0		34
Houston Texans	2	6	8	8	9	33							0		33
Buffalo Bills	5	7	7	7	6	32							0		32
San Francisco 49ers	4	7	5	7	8	31							0		31
Cleveland Browns	6	4	10	4	5	29							0		29
Kansas City Chiefs	10	9	4	2	4	29							0		29
Oakland Raiders	4	2	4	5	5	20							0		20
St. Louis Rams	6	8	3	2	1	20							0		20
Detroit Lions	5	3	7	0	2	17							0		17

My rule of thumb is, any team with a grand total of 45 or over is doing something right. That's an average winning record, nine wins per year, in a league where winning at all (let alone winning consistently) is extremely difficult. These are the best organizations in the sport.

Note technically a total of 40.5 or better represents a “winning” record, barely. That would average out to 4 yrs of 8-8 and one year of 8-7-1. I personally think that is nothing to write home about: but the Bengals have a pretty crappy history, so the current regime's results are sort of spectacular. Anyway, it beats losing. These teams in the 40-44 win category are in a second tier.

Indy and New England have been on top of this list for a few years now. I guess that's what happens when you get the two best QBs in the game, along with decent to good defenses. Indy has been in 2nd place, though: last year they were 3 games back. This 7-game lead is rather stunning. You wouldn't think anyone could be 7 games better than New England over this period. The Imperfect Season is still very recent. It's worth noting that the Pats last Super Bowl just came off the books for this table: it was six seasons ago. The Steelers have won it twice since then, and Indy has a chance to make it two also.

The Chargers, Steelers & Giants round out the top 5, with Dallas just a game behind. This accords with our intution: those teams are good just about every year. Would you have picked the Bears and Panthers as the next most successful teams? Remember the Bears went to the Super Bowl after the 2006 season. The Panthers went just a couple years before, and John Fox's teams have consistently been dangerous. Our perception of him would be completely different if Carolina had been able to hold on in SB 38 (it was just a 3-pt game).

Looking at the other end of the list – how crushing is it to be a Lions fan? The Raiders and Rams have averaged 4 wins a season over the last 5 years, they've been just awful. (You have to love the Rams record in the last 3 successive seasons: 3,2,1. Blastoff!) And the Lions are 3 games worse. Here's a lesson in how horribly a zero brings own your average: the Lions could double their win total next year, to 4 games, and go down in total victories on this list, because their 5-win campaign in 2005 would come off the books.

I still think things are going to look up for those fans. I also think it will happen S-L-O-W-L-Y. Mayhew & co. seem to be the Tortoise rather than the Hare. But here's the thing – two things, actually. 1, Lions owner William Clay Ford is the one owner Most Likely To give an extended chance to his management team.
(Remember the days when Tom Landry posted 5 consecutive losing seasons to start his coaching career with the Cowboys? And in the 6th season the record was only .500? WCF is the one NFL owner you can picture being patient enough to let that play out, give his guys extra time to turn it around.)
2, football is one sport (baseball is another) where the slow methodical approach is the only one that must work. In the NBA, you cannot win unless you get lucky as a franchise; you need a star to fall into your lap (Larry Brown's Pistons excepted). But in football, the attrition is so terrible, that if you just add good players while letting your bad players fall away, you will inevitably become good after a few years. Slowly, but inevitably. Mind you, that's not the only way to get good. You can be Parcells or Marty, raze the existing roster and bring in a bunch of young guys who will run around and block and tackle and play their hearts out. Take all your roster hits in year 1. You can be Brad Childress or Sean Payton, and import half your team. Hope it all comes together. But each of those approaches can fail. The slow & methodical addition of talent, if done well, must work. You do have to stick with it, though.
(It also helps that the Lions seem to have identified their QB. Now they can acquire pieces who will actually help them in the near term, rather than in some remote future.)

Check out Houston's place on the list, 33 wins. That's solidly in loser territory. But! If next year they post another season like they did this year, then they will vault into the respectable middle. Their 2-win 2005 season would come off the books, and a decent season added in. (How much do you think the good people of Houston, Jacksonville and Tennessee, the divisional opponents of Indianapolis, just cannot wait for Peyton Manning to friggin retire already!)

Who do you feel sorrier for? The Brownies, in a division with the Steelers (57), Ravens (47), and Bengals (40.5)? Or the Redskins, in a division with the Giants (53), Cowboys (52), and Eagles (44.5)?

It's a trick question, of course. You never ever feel sorry for Dan Snyder's sorry-ass team.

Read more...