5 Year Record

It's that time of year again, the lull before the Super Bowl. A good time to take a look at who have been the very best teams in the sport over the recent past.

In the table below, ties are broken by postseason wins, where applicable, under the theory that one postseason win is worth more than one reg season win. It's a slightly greater accomplishment. Thus the Saints are ranked ahead of the Jaguars and the Packers ahead of the Titans. Ties remaining after that are broken by the most recent reg season record, under the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately theory. Thus the Vikings are ahead of the Broncos, the Brownies ahead of the Chiefs, and the Raiders ahead of the Rams. Ties remaining after that are ignored, because Excel will only sort on three categories at once; but I don't think there are any examples this year.

For comparison, last year's list is here.

Team	Reg season							Post season							Grand Total
	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	Sum		2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	Sum
Indianapolis Colts	14	12	13	12	14	65			4			2	6		71
New England Patriots	10	12	16	11	10	59		1	2	2			5		64
San Diego Chargers	9	14	11	8	13	55				2	1		3		58
Pittsburgh Steelers	11	8	10	12	9	50		4			3		7		57
New York Giants	11	8	10	12	8	49				4			4		53
Dallas Cowboys	9	9	13	9	11	51						1	1		52
Chicago Bears	11	13	7	9	7	47			2				2		49
Carolina Panthers	11	8	7	12	8	46		2					2		48
Philadelphia Eagles	6	10	8	9.5	11	44.5			1		2		3		47.5
Baltimore Ravens	6	13	5	11	9	44					2	1	3		47
Minnesota Vikings	9	6	8	10	12	45						1	1		46
Denver Broncos	13	9	7	8	8	45		1					1		46
Seattle Seahawks	13	9	10	4	5	41		2	1	1			4		45
New Orleans Saints	3	10	7	8	13	41			1			2	3		44
Jacksonville Jaguars	12	8	11	5	7	43				1			1		44
Green Bay Packers	4	8	13	6	11	42				1			1		43
Tennessee Titans	4	8	10	13	8	43							0		43
Arizona Cardinals	5	5	8	9	10	37					3	1	4		41
Cincinnati Bengals	11	8	7	4.5	10	40.5							0		40.5
Atlanta Falcons	8	7	4	11	9	39							0		39
New York Jets	4	10	4	9	9	36						2	2		38
Washington Redskins	10	5	9	8	4	36		1					1		37
Tampa Bay Buccnrs	11	4	9	9	3	36							0		36
Miami Dolphins	9	6	1	11	7	34							0		34
Houston Texans	2	6	8	8	9	33							0		33
Buffalo Bills	5	7	7	7	6	32							0		32
San Francisco 49ers	4	7	5	7	8	31							0		31
Cleveland Browns	6	4	10	4	5	29							0		29
Kansas City Chiefs	10	9	4	2	4	29							0		29
Oakland Raiders	4	2	4	5	5	20							0		20
St. Louis Rams	6	8	3	2	1	20							0		20
Detroit Lions	5	3	7	0	2	17							0		17

My rule of thumb is, any team with a grand total of 45 or over is doing something right. That's an average winning record, nine wins per year, in a league where winning at all (let alone winning consistently) is extremely difficult. These are the best organizations in the sport.

Note technically a total of 40.5 or better represents a “winning” record, barely. That would average out to 4 yrs of 8-8 and one year of 8-7-1. I personally think that is nothing to write home about: but the Bengals have a pretty crappy history, so the current regime's results are sort of spectacular. Anyway, it beats losing. These teams in the 40-44 win category are in a second tier.

Indy and New England have been on top of this list for a few years now. I guess that's what happens when you get the two best QBs in the game, along with decent to good defenses. Indy has been in 2nd place, though: last year they were 3 games back. This 7-game lead is rather stunning. You wouldn't think anyone could be 7 games better than New England over this period. The Imperfect Season is still very recent. It's worth noting that the Pats last Super Bowl just came off the books for this table: it was six seasons ago. The Steelers have won it twice since then, and Indy has a chance to make it two also.

The Chargers, Steelers & Giants round out the top 5, with Dallas just a game behind. This accords with our intution: those teams are good just about every year. Would you have picked the Bears and Panthers as the next most successful teams? Remember the Bears went to the Super Bowl after the 2006 season. The Panthers went just a couple years before, and John Fox's teams have consistently been dangerous. Our perception of him would be completely different if Carolina had been able to hold on in SB 38 (it was just a 3-pt game).

Looking at the other end of the list – how crushing is it to be a Lions fan? The Raiders and Rams have averaged 4 wins a season over the last 5 years, they've been just awful. (You have to love the Rams record in the last 3 successive seasons: 3,2,1. Blastoff!) And the Lions are 3 games worse. Here's a lesson in how horribly a zero brings own your average: the Lions could double their win total next year, to 4 games, and go down in total victories on this list, because their 5-win campaign in 2005 would come off the books.

I still think things are going to look up for those fans. I also think it will happen S-L-O-W-L-Y. Mayhew & co. seem to be the Tortoise rather than the Hare. But here's the thing – two things, actually. 1, Lions owner William Clay Ford is the one owner Most Likely To give an extended chance to his management team.
(Remember the days when Tom Landry posted 5 consecutive losing seasons to start his coaching career with the Cowboys? And in the 6th season the record was only .500? WCF is the one NFL owner you can picture being patient enough to let that play out, give his guys extra time to turn it around.)
2, football is one sport (baseball is another) where the slow methodical approach is the only one that must work. In the NBA, you cannot win unless you get lucky as a franchise; you need a star to fall into your lap (Larry Brown's Pistons excepted). But in football, the attrition is so terrible, that if you just add good players while letting your bad players fall away, you will inevitably become good after a few years. Slowly, but inevitably. Mind you, that's not the only way to get good. You can be Parcells or Marty, raze the existing roster and bring in a bunch of young guys who will run around and block and tackle and play their hearts out. Take all your roster hits in year 1. You can be Brad Childress or Sean Payton, and import half your team. Hope it all comes together. But each of those approaches can fail. The slow & methodical addition of talent, if done well, must work. You do have to stick with it, though.
(It also helps that the Lions seem to have identified their QB. Now they can acquire pieces who will actually help them in the near term, rather than in some remote future.)

Check out Houston's place on the list, 33 wins. That's solidly in loser territory. But! If next year they post another season like they did this year, then they will vault into the respectable middle. Their 2-win 2005 season would come off the books, and a decent season added in. (How much do you think the good people of Houston, Jacksonville and Tennessee, the divisional opponents of Indianapolis, just cannot wait for Peyton Manning to friggin retire already!)

Who do you feel sorrier for? The Brownies, in a division with the Steelers (57), Ravens (47), and Bengals (40.5)? Or the Redskins, in a division with the Giants (53), Cowboys (52), and Eagles (44.5)?

It's a trick question, of course. You never ever feel sorry for Dan Snyder's sorry-ass team.