In the table below, ties are broken by postseason wins, where applicable, under the theory that one postseason win is worth more than one reg season win. It's a slightly greater accomplishment. Thus the Ravens are ranked ahead of the Jaguars who are ahead of the Cowboys. Ties remaining after that are broken by the most recent reg season record, under the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately theory. Thus the Panthers are ahead of the Bears, and the Falcons are ahead of the Vikings who are ahead of the Packers. Ties remaining after that are ignored, because Excel will only sort on three categories at once; but I don't think there are any examples this year.Team Reg season Post season Grand Total 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Sum 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Sum New England Patriots 14 10 12 16 11 63 3 1 2 2 8 71 Indianapolis Colts 12 14 12 13 12 63 1 4 5 68 Pittsburgh Steelers 15 11 8 10 12 56 1 4 3 8 64 San Diego Chargers 12 9 14 11 8 54 2 1 3 57 Philadelphia Eagles 13 6 10 8 9.5 46.5 2 1 2 5 51.5 New York Giants 6 11 8 10 12 47 4 4 51 Seattle Seahawks 9 13 9 10 4 45 2 1 1 4 49 Denver Broncos 10 13 9 7 8 47 1 1 48 Carolina Panthers 7 11 8 7 12 45 2 2 47 Chicago Bears 5 11 13 7 9 45 2 2 47 Baltimore Ravens 9 6 13 5 11 44 2 2 46 Jacksonville Jaguars 9 12 8 11 5 45 1 1 46 Dallas Cowboys 6 9 9 13 9 46 0 46 Atlanta Falcons 11 8 7 4 11 41 1 1 42 Minnesota Vikings 8 9 6 8 10 41 1 1 42 Green Bay Packers 10 4 8 13 6 41 1 1 42 Tennessee Titans 5 4 8 10 13 40 0 40 Washington Redskins 6 10 5 9 8 38 1 1 39 Cincinnati Bengals 8 11 8 7 4.5 38.5 0 38.5 New York Jets 10 4 10 4 9 37 1 1 38 Tampa Bay Buccnrs 5 11 4 9 9 38 0 38 New Orleans Saints 8 3 10 7 8 36 1 1 37 Arizona Cardinals 6 5 5 8 9 33 3 3 36 Buffalo Bills 9 5 7 7 7 35 0 35 Kansas City Chiefs 7 10 9 4 2 32 0 32 Miami Dolphins 4 9 6 1 11 31 0 31 Houston Texans 7 2 6 8 8 31 0 31 St. Louis Rams 8 6 8 3 2 27 1 1 28 Cleveland Browns 4 6 4 10 4 28 0 28 San Francisco 49ers 2 4 7 5 7 25 0 25 Detroit Lions 6 5 3 7 0 21 0 21 Oakland Raiders 5 4 2 4 5 20 0 20
Wow, this is a pain in the ass to do in html.
My rule of thumb is, any team with a grand total over 45 is doing something right. That's an average winning record, nine wins per year, in a league where winning at all (let alone winning consistently) is extremely difficult. These are the best organizations in the sport.
Note technically a total of 40.5 or better represents a “winning” record, barely. I personally think 4 yrs of 8-8 and one year of 8-7-1 (which is what 40.5 would work out to) is nothing to write home about: but it beats losing. These teams with 42 wins are in a second tier.
Tennessee is an interesting case, exactly at .500 over 5 years. Does anything else illustrate more clearly, how cutthroat competitive the league is? Jeff Fisher is one of the finest coaches in the game; he wins 13 games in 2008 and that gets his 5-year record back up to .500.
On this list, there's the Pats, then Indy, then the Steelers; and then there's everybody else. Note how the top 6 or 7 are all teams that have definitively answered their QB questions; and the top two teams just happen to have the consensus top two QBs over the past several years.
The Redskins are still losers, barely.
I like how the Lions can go winless, and still not be on the bottom of this list. Holy god, the Raiders suck.
Friday, July 24, 2009
5 Year Record
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What really kills me about the Lions is that all else equal (continuity of NFL parity strategy) is that eight years into the century it will be virtually impossible for Detroit to close the century with a winning record. What is even more depressing is that I figured this out after 2006 and now they are another 18 games under .500.
ReplyDeleteAlso interesting how the bottom nine teams combine for zero playoff wins and (unfactchecked) three playoff appearances total. The idea that the 'Miami Miracle' or whatever they are calling the Dolphins' turnaround is some kind of new paradigm for the NFL is demonstrably false. The Dolphins were extremely lucky to win as much as they did - in addition to greatly improved play. They were one of the least injured teams in the league, their turnover differential improved from 22nd to first overall, they outpaced their pythagorean win total by 1.5 or so all while having a Pro Bowl quarterback fall into their lap. None of this is repeatable.
ReplyDelete... sigh, and there wastes a bunch of material for an article. I guess I can blog it at Scout instead.
The Dolphins also underperformed for Cam Cameron the year before, so getting a little luck against their Pythagorean projection is amplified in terms of extra games won.
ReplyDeleteThey weren't quite as bad a a 1-win team in 2007, and not quite as good as an 11-win team in 2008.