Tuesday, February 5, 2013

5 Year Record

TeamReg seasonPost seasonGrand Total
Baltimore Ravens1191212105421114963
New England Patriots11101413126021363
Green Bay Packers6111015115341558
Pittsburgh Steelers129121285332558
Atlanta Falcons119131013561157
New Orleans Saints813111375231456
New York Giants1281099484452
Indianapolis Colts121410211492251
San Francisco 49ers7861311.545.512348.5
New York Jets9911864322447
Houston Texans89610124511247
Chicago Bears9711810451146
San Diego Chargers813987451146
Philadelphia Eagles9.511108442.52244.5
Dallas Cowboys911688421143
Denver Broncos884813411142
Minnesota Vikings10126310411142
Tennessee Titans13869642042
Arizona Cardinals9105853731441
Miami Dolphins11776738038
Cincinnati Bengals4.510491037.5037.5
Seattle Seahawks4577113411236
Carolina Panthers12826735035
Washington Redskins84651033033
Tampa Bay Buccnrs93104733033
Oakland Raiders5588430030
Buffalo Bills7646629029
Jacksonville Jaguars5785227027
Kansas City Chiefs24107225025
Cleveland Browns4554523023
Detroit Lions02610422022
St. Louis Rams21727.519.5019.5

Ravens #1, baby.

In the table, ties are broken by postseason wins, where applicable, under the theory that one postseason win is worth more than one reg season win. It's a slightly greater accomplishment. Thus the Ravens are #1 ahead of the Patriots! Also the Jets get the nod over the Texans, and the Vikings over the Titans. Ties remaining after that are broken by the most recent reg season record, under the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately theory. Thus Packers ahead of Steelers; likewise Bears over Chargers, Broncos over Vikings, and Redskins over Buccaneers.

For comparison, last season's list is here.

The main reason Baltimore moves up 45 spots from last season, is that their 5-win 2007 season came off the books, while they posted another good great year. For the first time the chart includes only the Harbaugh-Flacco era Ravens.

More interestingly, the Patriots stays at the top even though their Imperfect Season dropped off the chart. First, of course they had another great season. Second: the #s 2-3-4-5 teams from last year were Green Bay, Pittsburgh, the Giants and the Saints. Pittsburgh and New Orleans had mediocre seasons this year. The Packers and Giants had good seasons; but like the Patriots, they had great seasons drop off the back end of the list. Last year, the first season on the chart was Brett Favre's last season in Green Bay: they won 13 reg season games and advanced to the conference finals. They lost to the Giants, who rendered the Pats season Imperfect. So even though the Pats had 16 wins drop from their chart before the season began, the Packers and Giants each had 14 wins drop off, and couldn't catch up.

My rule of thumb is, any team with a grand total of 45 or over is doing something right. That's an average winning record, nine wins per year, in a league where winning at all (let alone winning consistently) is extremely difficult. These are the most successful organizations in the sport. Note that the Chargers are just on the right side of this line, which I find somewhat surprising. Also note that the Eagles are just half a game out of this. Considering the debacle there this year, that really points out how consistently excellent even the tail end of Andy Reid's tenure was.

Note technically a total of 40.5 or better represents a “winning” record, barely. That would average out to 4 yrs of 8-8 and one year of 8-7-1. I personally think that is nothing to write home about: but it beats losing. These teams in the 41-44 win category are in a second tier. It's nice to see Dallas firmly in mid-tier territory. I assume Denver is trending up for another couple seasons. Minnesota will have trouble breaking up out of this tier: they would need to win 10 and 12 over the next two seasons, just to stay where they are. Seattle and maybe Cincinnati should move into this tier next season.

At the other end of the spectrum: man St Louis is horrendous. But they seem to be moving up. Detroit will get a bounce next year, as their big zero comes off the books. Even a bad record would move them up. I'm not sure who to project into the bottom spot for next season. Maybe Jax?


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