Thursday, August 7, 2014

5 Year Record

In the table below, ties are broken by postseason wins, where applicable, under the theory that one postseason win is worth more than one reg season win. It's a slightly greater accomplishment. Thus Indy is listed ahead of the Steelers, and the Giants over the Chargers. Ties remaining after that are broken by the most recent reg season record, under the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately theory. Thus Panthers ahead of Dolphins; likewise Lions over Raiders, and Bills over Buccs over Skins.

For comparison, last season's list is here.

TeamReg seasonPost seasonGrand Total
New England Patriots101413121261211465
Green Bay Packers111015118.555.541560.5
New Orleans Saints13111371155311560
Baltimore Ravens91212108511114758
San Francisco 49ers861311.51250.5122555.5
Indianapolis Colts1410211114821351
Pittsburgh Steelers9121288492251
Atlanta Falcons91310134491150
Denver Broncos84813134612349
Seattle Seahawks577111343113548
New York Giants810997434447
San Diego Chargers139879461147
New York Jets9118684222446
Chicago Bears7118108441145
Cincinnati Bengals1049101144044
Philadelphia Eagles1110841043043
Dallas Cowboys116888411142
Houston Texans96101223911241
Arizona Cardinals1058510381139
Minnesota Vikings1263105.536.51137.5
Tennessee Titans8696736036
Carolina Panthers82671235035
Miami Dolphins7767835035
Kansas City Chiefs410721134034
Detroit Lions26104729029
Oakland Raiders5884429029
Buffalo Bills6466628028
Tampa Bay Buccnrs31047428028
Washington Redskins46510328028
Jacksonville Jaguars7852426026
St. Louis Rams1727.5724.5024.5
Cleveland Browns5545423023

Seriously, who is at all surprised to see the Pats at the top of this list? What Bill Belichick has accomplished over the years is amazing. Five game ahead of the next closest team! Thirteen wins a year despite constant churn among receivers and TEs, and with a rebuilding project on D. It will be fascinating to see how that team handles the transition from Brady; but they have positioned themselves extremely well. Between Mallett and Garoppolo, one of those guys can probably play QB. Remembering Matt Cassell in 2008, it's hard to believe the Pats will miss a beat when they trot out one of those guys.

The top 3 just underlines why we regard those 3 QBs so highly: Peyton would be there too if he hadn't missed a year and changed teams.

Continuing on down the list, the top TWELVE teams are all organizations that have had unquestioned answers to their QB question. The list really emphasizes what a tautology it is in the NFL: winning = having a solution at QB = winning.

My rule of thumb is, any team with a grand total of 45 or over is doing something right. That's an average winning record, nine wins per year, in a league where winning at all (let alone winning consistently) is extremely difficult. These are the most successful organizations in the sport. The Bears are right at that line, the Jets just ahead and the Bengals just behind. Those are three interesting teams, and I think they illustrate something: perennially pretty good teams, but stuck in divisions with monsters (Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and the Ravens/Steelers). It's a tough way to live.

Note technically a total of 40.5 or better represents a “winning” record, barely. That would average out to 4 yrs of 8-8 and one year of 8-7-1. I personally think that is nothing to write home about: but it beats losing. These teams in the 41 to 44 win category are in a second tier. This year it's Cincy, the Pheagles, Cowboyz and Texans. Dallas lives here, which I find very satisfying. Cincy and Philly are are good teams with one bad year of the last 5 which drags them down. They'd have to win 11 or 12 games this year to climb out of this mid-range.

At the other end of the spectrum: the Brownies are an object lesson in the result of churning philosophies and leadership. They are six games behind the Raiders < shudder >. It seems safe to project them into the same spot next year; them or Jax. St Louis will make a big move up this list next year, when their 1-win 2009 season comes off the books. Detroit already made a big move up this year, as their oh-fer in '08 finally dropped off the books, and they will get another bounce next year (even if they have a weak season), as their 2-win 2009 comes off.


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