Friday, July 24, 2009

5 Year Record

In the table below, ties are broken by postseason wins, where applicable, under the theory that one postseason win is worth more than one reg season win. It's a slightly greater accomplishment. Thus the Ravens are ranked ahead of the Jaguars who are ahead of the Cowboys. Ties remaining after that are broken by the most recent reg season record, under the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately theory. Thus the Panthers are ahead of the Bears, and the Falcons are ahead of the Vikings who are ahead of the Packers. Ties remaining after that are ignored, because Excel will only sort on three categories at once; but I don't think there are any examples this year.

Team
Reg season
Post season
Grand Total
20042005200620072008 Sum
20042005200620072008 Sum
New England Patriots141012161163
3122
8
71
Indianapolis Colts121412131263
1
4

5
68
Pittsburgh Steelers15118101256
14

38
64
San Diego Chargers1291411854



213
57
Philadelphia Eagles1361089.546.5
2
1
25
51.5
New York Giants6118101247



4
4
51
Seattle Seahawks913910445

211
4
49
Denver Broncos101397847

1


1
48
Carolina Panthers711871245

2


2
47
Chicago Bears511137945


2

2
47
Baltimore Ravens961351144




22
46
Jacksonville Jaguars912811545



1
1
46
Dallas Cowboys69913946





0
46
Atlanta Falcons118741141
1



1
42
Minnesota Vikings89681041
1



1
42
Green Bay Packers104813641



1
1
42
Tennessee Titans548101340





0
40
Washington Redskins61059838

1


1
39
Cincinnati Bengals811874.538.5





0
38.5
New York Jets104104937
1



1
38
Tampa Bay Buccnrs51149938





0
38
New Orleans Saints83107836


1

1
37
Arizona Cardinals6558933




33
36
Buffalo Bills9577735





0
35
Kansas City Chiefs71094232





0
32
Miami Dolphins49611131





0
31
Houston Texans7268831





0
31
St. Louis Rams8683227
1



1
28
Cleveland Browns46410428





0
28
San Francisco 49ers2475725





0
25
Detroit Lions6537021





0
21
Oakland Raiders5424520





0
20

Wow, this is a pain in the ass to do in html.

My rule of thumb is, any team with a grand total over 45 is doing something right. That's an average winning record, nine wins per year, in a league where winning at all (let alone winning consistently) is extremely difficult. These are the best organizations in the sport.

Note technically a total of 40.5 or better represents a “winning” record, barely. I personally think 4 yrs of 8-8 and one year of 8-7-1 (which is what 40.5 would work out to) is nothing to write home about: but it beats losing. These teams with 42 wins are in a second tier.

Tennessee is an interesting case, exactly at .500 over 5 years. Does anything else illustrate more clearly, how cutthroat competitive the league is? Jeff Fisher is one of the finest coaches in the game; he wins 13 games in 2008 and that gets his 5-year record back up to .500.

On this list, there's the Pats, then Indy, then the Steelers; and then there's everybody else. Note how the top 6 or 7 are all teams that have definitively answered their QB questions; and the top two teams just happen to have the consensus top two QBs over the past several years.

The Redskins are still losers, barely.

I like how the Lions can go winless, and still not be on the bottom of this list. Holy god, the Raiders suck.

3 comments:

  1. What really kills me about the Lions is that all else equal (continuity of NFL parity strategy) is that eight years into the century it will be virtually impossible for Detroit to close the century with a winning record. What is even more depressing is that I figured this out after 2006 and now they are another 18 games under .500.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Also interesting how the bottom nine teams combine for zero playoff wins and (unfactchecked) three playoff appearances total. The idea that the 'Miami Miracle' or whatever they are calling the Dolphins' turnaround is some kind of new paradigm for the NFL is demonstrably false. The Dolphins were extremely lucky to win as much as they did - in addition to greatly improved play. They were one of the least injured teams in the league, their turnover differential improved from 22nd to first overall, they outpaced their pythagorean win total by 1.5 or so all while having a Pro Bowl quarterback fall into their lap. None of this is repeatable.

    ... sigh, and there wastes a bunch of material for an article. I guess I can blog it at Scout instead.

    ReplyDelete
  3. The Dolphins also underperformed for Cam Cameron the year before, so getting a little luck against their Pythagorean projection is amplified in terms of extra games won.
    They weren't quite as bad a a 1-win team in 2007, and not quite as good as an 11-win team in 2008.

    ReplyDelete

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