One of my favorite pieces of sports analysis ever, is a piece that Bill James wrote in the mid-80s on Andre Dawson winning the National League MVP award over Ozzzie Smith.
That piece is reprinted in Bill James' collection This Time Let's Not Eat The Bones. I don't see a version of it online. This link is NOT that piece; it's a piece by Dave Fleming, dated from 2017, about the way MVP voters have looked at various candidates over the years. It's an interesting read with similar points. But the Bill James piece – ! That was an absolutely savage, poisonous takedown of the MVP voters for giving the award to the leader in RBI, over a far more deserving candidate. It was a passionate cry for a newer smarter method of analysis.
I don't see how anyone could read that, and not come away at the very least with a determination never EVER to uncritically use one “master stat” to select an MVP. Look broadly at all the available evidence. No single all-encompassing Big Number is the be-all end-all of the “best player” discussion. The guy who leads the league in RBi is not automatically the best player.
Switching over to El Futbol Americaine, we're not going to say that the guy who led the league in TD passes or DVOA or whatever, is automatically the MVP. Today is a wonderful time to be an analytically-minded football fan. We got more sophisticated & intelligent methods now than we've ever had before. It's awesome. BUT! The fancy analytical methods are guides that can help us see things; none of them is The Answer.
Which brings us to PFF's selection for League MVP of
Russell Wilson over Lamar Jackson.
Before I beat them about the head and neck for this selection, let me first say that I love that their award for “the best player in the league regardless of position” is the Dwight Stephenson Award. 🙂 Can't argue with their choice of Kittle either. WOW what a player.
Their choice for Offensive Player of the Year was Lamar, which (a) is blindingly obvious, but (b) is something we need to compliment them for, given their selection for MVP.
“Lamar takes home Offensive Player of the Year honors for 2019.Yep, that's the logic.
The logic is simply that no player had as big of an impact on offense as Jackson did this season.”
“The Baltimore Ravens offense ... looked nigh-on unstoppable for a significant chunk of the season. ... that unstoppable offense was built around the skills of Lamar Jackson. His ability to be the team’s top rushing and passing threat is unmatched throughout the NFL. ...So: Lamar is the Offensive Player of the Year. Aaron Donald is the DPOY: no argument. George Kittle is the best player regardless of position: unusual, but fair. And the MVP is – none of the above!
No player in the league brought a more versatile danger to NFL defenses than Lamar Jackson... The impact of Jackson’s incredible season will be felt throughout the NFL for several years to come, as some teams will look to try and emulate it while everybody else will look for ways to stop it. For that reason, Jackson is a worthy winner of PFF’s Offensive Player of the Year Award.”
You can sort of tell they have a sense that there's a problem. Check out their final paragraph:
What we can say, though, is that based on everything PFF is currently able to quantify, Russell Wilson, and not Jackson, added the most value to his team and is, therefore, the league’s MVP. When you try and see the entire board, Wilson dealt with much more adversity than Jackson did and was significantly ahead in terms of PFF WAR. So, Russell Wilson wins the award for a season in which there were two outstanding candidates.Try and see the entire board, my ass. They begin the paragraph saying that they are basing on stuff they are currently able to quantify; which concedes that there's stuff they're NOT currently able to quantify. You can't then say that you're “seeing the entire board”! They just admitted in the prior sentence that they're NOT able to see the entire board! Grumble grumble.
Just feels like PFF tried to split the baby.
[EDIT – removed the bit about the 1985 Grammy Awards, as superfluous and distracting.]
That's what this MVP feels like. PFF split the baby. Russell Wilson is a real quarterback, not some flash-in-the-pan hybrid passer-lite. Lamar Jackson fans should shut and and be grateful they get anything at all. Use one award to satisfy the Real Football People, and the other to satisfy the Young Hipsters Who Like This Flash-in-the-pan Stuff.
Look: Russ unquestionably had an MVP-caliber season. He played amazing. I had him as my midseason MVP: certainly he finished in the top ~3. Every year there's always a few guys worthy of serious MVP consideration; Russ absolutely is one of those guys this year. No argument whatsoever. But PFF is not arguing that Russ is one of the 3 best or most-valuable players in the league. They are arguing that he is the MOST valuable. Their “logic” for this is somewhere between “flawed” and “retarded”.
Let's dig into it.
PFF's selection of Russ as MVP is a Master Stat selection. They've developed a new metric, “PFF WAR”. Russ comes out #1 in that metric. Ergo he is the MVP. It is that ineluctable and simple. Yes, that form of reasoning was exploded 35 years ago. Sorry, it's what they did.
Here's their piece on the new metric:
To my mind, there's a fine line between “dismissing a metric because it doesn't support your opinion of a player”, and “applying a sanity check when developing a brand-new metric”. PFF are developing a brand-new metric! Exciting work. And in the process, they look at this table:
And they didn't stop to wonder if this passes the smell test. Instead they were all like “WOW, running backs are WARthless.”
This to me is a stop-and-check-your-work moment. If I designed a metric, and by that metric LDT 2006 and Adrian Peterson 2012 each came out as less than 1/10th as “valuable” as Peyton Manning 2008 – I personally would wonder if I did everything right in the work leading up to this step.
Peyton Manning in 2008 finished:
PFR's assertion is that Peyton Manning in that season, was more than ten times as valuable as either LDT 2006 or Adrian Peterson 2012.
Peyton Manning's '08 season was NOT ten times more valuable than LDT '06 or Purple Jesus '12. Both Manning and AP led their teams to 2nd-place division finishes and first-round ousters from the playoffs. I will grant you that Manning's supporting cast in '08 was less impressive than he usually had; but it sure as shit wasn't inferior to AP's supporting cast in '12. All-Day's accomplishment seems CLEARLY more impressive to this layman; more “valuable”.
The PFF position is a RB should NEVER be the MVP. CAN never be the MVP: it is not possible for even the greatest RB to be more valuable than an average QB. I think I understand the mechanics: certainly it's a passing league. But then I look at Jim Brown's career statistics. Not possible for a RB to be more valuable? Even if another man-among-boys come along, who teams simply can't bring down?
We've been discussing the last ~dozen league MVPs over the last few paragraphs. But putting PFF's evaluation of LDT and AP in the context of MVPs, actually gives WAY too much deference to the PFF position. I'm comparing LDT & All-Day to Brady & Manning; and you can't help but think, “Well yeah I can buy that Brady & Manning are more valuable.” Of course you can: they're Brady & Manning.
But PFF's position is the strong form of the “RBs don't matter” stance. The extremely strong form; the strongest form. They're not ONLY saying that AP & LDT were less than 1/10th as valuable as one of Manning's weaker years. PFF is saying they don't (can't!) come anywhere close to the other QBs who were playing those same years.
Let's look at AP's 2012 season. Remember, he rushed for 2100, led the league in AV, got to the playoffs. Below are the #8 thru #19 QBs by Football Outsider's DYAR from that season. This is 12 starting QBs having average to good seasons, but not cracking the top 5:
I shoulda blacked-out the names: these are guys you know, SB winners, MVPs and whatnot. But look at the yardage and the TD/INTs. These are excellent players; but they are not great seasons. Yet the PFF position is that EACH of these seasons is somewhere around (guessing) 8 TIMES more valuable than Adrian Peterson's 2k season. I say bullshit. I say that each one of these seasons is much closer to replacement-level than what AP did that year.
Remember that LDT in '06 had 2300 scrimmage yards and 31 rush+recv TDs, set the record for PFR's AV stat. Here are the #8 thru #19 QBs by Football Outsider's DYAR from that season:
C'mon! Not a single one of these guys was having a season as valuable as LDTs; or was performing further above replacement. But the PFF position is that each one of these seasons is (guessing again) something like 7 or 8 times more valuable.
I don't know exactly WHAT is wrong with PFF WAR, their shiny new Master Stat. But something is. They appear to assign zero value to running the football. I'm no “establish the run” guy (well, maybe a little): but zero seems a little extreme.
It is informative to compare PFF's new Master Stat, with some other Master Stats from around the football analytics-verse; ones that have stood the test of some years, and are understood as being sturdy & usable, though not without warts of their own.
Football Outsider's DYAR
Ah, the site that named itself after a Bill James article. Sigh. ❤️
Remember FO has their efficiency stat, which is DVOA, and their counting stat, which is DYAR. Brees was #1 (40%) in their passing efficiency stat this sesaon, followed by Lamar #2 (35%) and Mahomes #3 (30%). Russ was 7th (25%). This below is the counting stat:
Passing only:
Russ & Lamar are very close! Seems reasonable that Russ could be better, with some consideration for situational play, right? But wait!
Rushing only:
(Among other running QBs, only Kyler & Josh Allen have rushing DYAR over 100, ie enough to make a real impact in the QB rankings.)
So for “total” DYAR = passing + rushing, Lamar is 1533 to Russ's 1329.
To put that delta of 200 in perspective, that's similar to the difference between Mahomes & Russ this year; or between Lamar and Derek Carr. It's sizable.
BTW, combined pass + rush DYA, Dak finishes first with 1600. Dak for MVP!
ESPN's QBR
I used to be highly critical of QBR for being a magic black box. But since inception, more info has come out on how it's calculated (I think they also revised it some). It's based on expected-points-added per play; and I have a high regard for EPA analysis. So I give QBR a little more weight than I used to.
FO and PFR both list QBR for 2019, They have slightly different but very close values for each QB:
QBR includes rushing plays, as I understand it; I don't think there's a passing-only implementation of QBR. Russ either 6th or 7th, depending on who's calculating it correctly.
(Edit: I just looked at ESPN https://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr/_/seasontype/2 , they have Russ 5th, flipped with Stafford by pctg pts. All values extremely close to these.)
PFR's AV
Approximate Value is a fun tool. I'm not trying to claim it's the final word; but I find it hella useful for looking at guys in the context of the HOF etc. It's a very intelligent stab at an utterly impossible task.
Prior to this year, the single-sesaon record for AV belonged to LaDainian Tomlinson 2006 (his season with 28 TDs). Top 15 all time:
26 – LDT '06
25 – Marshall Faulk '99, OJ '75
24 – Tom Brady '07, Rolland Lawrence '77 (who?)
23 – Jim Brown '64, Priest Holmes '02, Ray Lewis 2000, Wilber Marshall '86, Lydell Mitchell, Alan Page, Aaron Rodgers '11, Pat Swilling '91, Steve Young 93-94
After that, 17 players had a season with AV of 22, incl Derrick Brooks '02, Jim Brown '63, Terrell Davis '98. Marshall Faulk twice, Mahomes last year, Fouts, Bert Jones, Alan Page, JJ Watt, Steve Young '92
Here's your 2019 AV leaderboard:
Lamar joins LDT at the top of the list for highest-AV season in NFL history.
Now: neither DYAR nor QBR nor AV is perfect. But we've used them all for years; and by this point we know that they're pretty good. They do what they do; and they are not bad at it. FO has been the most forthcoming over the years; PFR is terse but transparent, and damn consistent. QBR is the new kid on the block, and had some growing pains: but it's on sound footing. Extremely solid analyst team behind it.
Neither one of these Master Stats is perfect. But ALL of them have Lamar #1. AV grades him with an historic season; as do our eyes.
If you're barging into this space with a new Master Stat, as PFF is, and it produces output that diverges widely from these; then you bear a burden of proof.
PFF seems to understand that their stat is not persuasive all by itself. Their official case for Russ as MVP is that their Master Stat says so; but in their post about it, they engage in a fair amount of hand-waving to try to support it.
Let's start with the quantifiable statements:
You can get close to that delta of 150 if you count, not pass attempts, but ALL dropbacks: pass attempts + sacks + scrambles:
That gives a delta of 146 dropbacks: pretty close to PFF's of 153 number.
BUT! Despite PFF feeling that rush plays don't count at all, there were in fact rushing plays. Lamar had 107 more non-scramble rush attempts than Russ did; more than 4-1/2 times the number Russ did, 137 to 30. Lamar fumbled once on all his runs (srambles + non-scrambles), a dramatic moment in the Niners game. I don't know how many times Russ did.
Also, it's weird that they don't mention sacks in discussing how the two players performed as QBs. Russell Wilson tied for the league lead in most-sacks-taken (with Kyler & Matt Ryan), and he was 5th from the worst (among qualifiers) in sack%. Lamar had the 7th-best sack pctg.
That's a big difference! Russ takes sacks much more often than Lamar does: not just a higher raw total, but more often. And you can see why on tape. Lamar is much MUCH better at managing the pocket than Russ is. It isn't close. You can't watch the film and miss this. Lamar in 2019 is on a Drew Brees level in terms of pocket presence. He's passed Brady – probably more accurate to say that Brady has fallen behind Lamar due to age related decline.
Lamar took a big step forward after the Pittsburgh game, and esp after the bye. From week 6 thru the end of the season, Lamar was sacked at a rate of 3.2%. For comparison, on the season Brees was 3.1% and Mahomes 3.4%. Most running QBs take too many sacks; with Lamar, it's shocking when he gets sacked. From my vantage point on the couch watching TV, this doesn't have much to do with the O-line (except Stanley at LT is a rock). Most of it is skill and balance. Lamar takes small steps to navigate the pocket, Peyton- or Brady-esque. He moves just a little to give his O-linemen better leverage. The rest of it is Lamar's processing speed and ridiculous athleticism. He is so absurdly gifted at making a guy miss, that he can afford to be eerily calm with a guy bearing down on him. Just utterly unconcerned. Many times this season we've seen Lamar facing a a free rusher. If it's a LB, Lamar just ignores him; then, I dunno, phases thru him or something at the last instant, then snaps off his throw. If it's a DB – hell, we've seen Lamar just run away from corners, up the opposite sideline for a big gain. Preposterous.
Wilson's story is different. His sack% was worse than Deshaun Watson; was better only than Haskins, Tannehill, Flacco and Kyle Allen. The reason is that Russ drops his eyes at the first sign of trouble, and he holds the ball too long. He wasn't always like this, I think: but he was this year. Eight years of consistently shitty OLs taking their toll on him, perhaps. Whether it's chicken or egg, right now Russ's pocket presence is shitty. Lamar's sack percentage is much better because Lamar's skills and habits are much better, right now. Maybe Russ can get it back and Lamar will have it shell-shocked out of him.
It is true that Lamar was aided by having Greg Roman calling plays rather than human wheel boot Brian Schottenheimer. But mostly Lamar's team accomplished more on offense than Russ's team this season, because Lamar was flat-out more valuable than Russ was.
Look: Russ unquestionably had an MVP-caliber season. He played amazing. I had him as my midseason MVP: certainly he finished in the top ~3. Every year there's always a few guys worthy of serious MVP consideration; Russ absolutely is one of those guys this year. No argument whatsoever. But PFF is not arguing that Russ is one of the 3 best or most-valuable players in the league. They are arguing that he is the MOST valuable. Their “logic” for this is somewhere between “flawed” and “retarded”.
Let's dig into it.
PFF's selection of Russ as MVP is a Master Stat selection. They've developed a new metric, “PFF WAR”. Russ comes out #1 in that metric. Ergo he is the MVP. It is that ineluctable and simple. Yes, that form of reasoning was exploded 35 years ago. Sorry, it's what they did.
Here's their piece on the new metric:
Broadly, the PFF WAR model does these things, in order:Really?
Determine how good a given player was during a period of time (generally a season) using PFF grades;
Map a player’s production to a “wins” value for his team using the relative importance of each facet of play;
Simulate a team’s expected performance with a player of interest and with an average player participating identically in his place. Take the difference in expected wins (e.g., Wins Above Average);
Determine the average player with a given participation profile’s wins above replacement player, assuming a team of replacement-level players is a 3-13 team;
Add the terms in the last two calculations to get that player’s WAR.
...
WAR = Player Wins – Replacement-Level Player Wins
= Player Wins – Average Player Wins +
Average Player Wins – Replacement-Level Player Wins.
...
It’s obvious to anyone who watches football that quarterback is the most important position... It is surprising (although if you’ve followed along, maybe less so) that the further away from the ball a player plays, the more valuable they appear to be. After quarterbacks, wide receivers, defensive backs and tight ends have the highest average WAR.
To my mind, there's a fine line between “dismissing a metric because it doesn't support your opinion of a player”, and “applying a sanity check when developing a brand-new metric”. PFF are developing a brand-new metric! Exciting work. And in the process, they look at this table:
| Season | Player | Position | Team | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | LaDainian Tomlinson | RB | SD | 0.34 |
| 2007 | Tom Brady | QB | NE | 4.50 |
| 2008 | Peyton Manning | QB | IND | 3.66 |
| 2009 | Peyton Manning | QB | IND | 4.10 |
| 2010 | Tom Brady | QB | NE | 2.61 |
| 2011 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | GB | 4.75 |
| 2012 | Adrian Peterson | RB | MIN | 0.30 |
| 2013 | Peyton Manning | QB | DEN | 4.45 |
| 2014 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | GB | 3.87 |
| 2015 | Cam Newton | QB | CAR | 2.88 |
| 2016 | Matt Ryan | QB | ATL | 3.52 |
| 2017 | Tom Brady | QB | NE | 5.38 |
| 2018 | Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC | 4.39 |
And they didn't stop to wonder if this passes the smell test. Instead they were all like “WOW, running backs are WARthless.”
This to me is a stop-and-check-your-work moment. If I designed a metric, and by that metric LDT 2006 and Adrian Peterson 2012 each came out as less than 1/10th as “valuable” as Peyton Manning 2008 – I personally would wonder if I did everything right in the work leading up to this step.
Peyton Manning in 2008 finished:
- 6th in yards (a full thousand behind Brees)
- 5th in TDs (7 behind Brees & Rivers)
- 6th in TD% (Rivers blew him away)
- 5th in Rating (Rivers was 10 pts ahead)
- 11th in YPA (Rivers was more than a full yard ahead)
PFR's assertion is that Peyton Manning in that season, was more than ten times as valuable as either LDT 2006 or Adrian Peterson 2012.
- LDT 2006: 1800 rush yds, 28 rush TDs (the record), 2300 scrimmage yards, AV of 26 (the record); Chargers 14-2, #1 seed
- Peterson '12: 2100 rush yds, led the league in AV (a higher total than Manning '08); dragged Christian Ponder to the playoffs
Peyton Manning's '08 season was NOT ten times more valuable than LDT '06 or Purple Jesus '12. Both Manning and AP led their teams to 2nd-place division finishes and first-round ousters from the playoffs. I will grant you that Manning's supporting cast in '08 was less impressive than he usually had; but it sure as shit wasn't inferior to AP's supporting cast in '12. All-Day's accomplishment seems CLEARLY more impressive to this layman; more “valuable”.
The PFF position is a RB should NEVER be the MVP. CAN never be the MVP: it is not possible for even the greatest RB to be more valuable than an average QB. I think I understand the mechanics: certainly it's a passing league. But then I look at Jim Brown's career statistics. Not possible for a RB to be more valuable? Even if another man-among-boys come along, who teams simply can't bring down?
We've been discussing the last ~dozen league MVPs over the last few paragraphs. But putting PFF's evaluation of LDT and AP in the context of MVPs, actually gives WAY too much deference to the PFF position. I'm comparing LDT & All-Day to Brady & Manning; and you can't help but think, “Well yeah I can buy that Brady & Manning are more valuable.” Of course you can: they're Brady & Manning.
But PFF's position is the strong form of the “RBs don't matter” stance. The extremely strong form; the strongest form. They're not ONLY saying that AP & LDT were less than 1/10th as valuable as one of Manning's weaker years. PFF is saying they don't (can't!) come anywhere close to the other QBs who were playing those same years.
Let's look at AP's 2012 season. Remember, he rushed for 2100, led the league in AV, got to the playoffs. Below are the #8 thru #19 QBs by Football Outsider's DYAR from that season. This is 12 starting QBs having average to good seasons, but not cracking the top 5:
| # | Player | Cmp | Yards | TD / INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
8
| Russell Wilson* | 64% | 3118 |
26 / 10
|
9
| Ben Roethlisberger | 63% | 3265 |
26 / 8
|
| 10 | Eli Manning* | 60% | 3948 |
26 / 15
|
| 11 | Robert Griffin* | 66% | 3200 |
20 / 5
|
| 12 | Matt Schaub* | 64% | 4008 |
22 / 12
|
| 13 | Colin Kaepernick | 62% | 1814 |
10 / 3
|
| 14 | Cam Newton | 58% | 3869 |
19 / 12
|
| 15 | Alex Smith | 70% | 1737 |
13 / 5
|
| 16 | Sam Bradford | 60% | 3702 |
21 / 13
|
| 17 | Joe Flacco | 60% | 3817 |
22 / 10
|
| 18 | Carson Palmer | 61% | 4018 |
22 / 14
|
| 19 | Andrew Luck* | 54% | 4374 |
23 / 18
|
I shoulda blacked-out the names: these are guys you know, SB winners, MVPs and whatnot. But look at the yardage and the TD/INTs. These are excellent players; but they are not great seasons. Yet the PFF position is that EACH of these seasons is somewhere around (guessing) 8 TIMES more valuable than Adrian Peterson's 2k season. I say bullshit. I say that each one of these seasons is much closer to replacement-level than what AP did that year.
Remember that LDT in '06 had 2300 scrimmage yards and 31 rush+recv TDs, set the record for PFR's AV stat. Here are the #8 thru #19 QBs by Football Outsider's DYAR from that season:
| # | Player | Cmp | Yards | TD / INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
8
| Tony Romo | 65% | 2903 |
19 / 13
|
9
| Donovan McNabb | 57% | 2647 |
18 / 6
|
| 10 | Ben Roethlisberger | 60% | 3513 |
18 / 23
|
| 11 | Steve McNair | 63% | 3050 |
16 / 12
|
| 12 | Damon Huard | 61% | 1878 |
11 / 1
|
| 13 | Eli Manning | 58% | 3244 |
24 / 18
|
| 14 | Jon Kitna | 62% | 4208 |
21 / 22
|
| 15 | Brett Favre | 56% | 3885 |
18 / 18
|
| 16 | Mark Brunell | 62% | 1789 |
8 / 4
|
| 17 | Jeff Garcia | 62% | 1309 |
10 / 2
|
| 18 | Jake Delhomme | 61% | 2805 |
17 / 11
|
| 19 | Matt Leinart | 57% | 2547 |
11 / 12
|
C'mon! Not a single one of these guys was having a season as valuable as LDTs; or was performing further above replacement. But the PFF position is that each one of these seasons is (guessing again) something like 7 or 8 times more valuable.
I don't know exactly WHAT is wrong with PFF WAR, their shiny new Master Stat. But something is. They appear to assign zero value to running the football. I'm no “establish the run” guy (well, maybe a little): but zero seems a little extreme.
It is informative to compare PFF's new Master Stat, with some other Master Stats from around the football analytics-verse; ones that have stood the test of some years, and are understood as being sturdy & usable, though not without warts of their own.
Football Outsider's DYAR
Ah, the site that named itself after a Bill James article. Sigh. ❤️
Remember FO has their efficiency stat, which is DVOA, and their counting stat, which is DYAR. Brees was #1 (40%) in their passing efficiency stat this sesaon, followed by Lamar #2 (35%) and Mahomes #3 (30%). Russ was 7th (25%). This below is the counting stat:
Passing only:
| Player | DYAR |
|---|---|
| Dak |
1546
|
| Brees |
1324
|
| Mahomes |
1322
|
| Russ |
1297
|
| Lamar |
1272
|
Russ & Lamar are very close! Seems reasonable that Russ could be better, with some consideration for situational play, right? But wait!
Rushing only:
| Player | DYAR |
|---|---|
| Lamar |
261
|
(16 others)
| |
| Russ |
32
|
So for “total” DYAR = passing + rushing, Lamar is 1533 to Russ's 1329.
To put that delta of 200 in perspective, that's similar to the difference between Mahomes & Russ this year; or between Lamar and Derek Carr. It's sizable.
BTW, combined pass + rush DYA, Dak finishes first with 1600. Dak for MVP!
ESPN's QBR
I used to be highly critical of QBR for being a magic black box. But since inception, more info has come out on how it's calculated (I think they also revised it some). It's based on expected-points-added per play; and I have a high regard for EPA analysis. So I give QBR a little more weight than I used to.
FO and PFR both list QBR for 2019, They have slightly different but very close values for each QB:
| # | Player | QBR-FO | | | QB | QBR-PFR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1
| Lamar |
81.7
| | | Lamar |
81.1
|
2
| Mahomes |
76.4
| | | Mahomes |
78.0
|
3
| Brees |
71.8
| | | Brees |
74.2
|
4
| Dak |
70.6
| | | Stafford |
73.1
|
5
| Stafford |
70.2
| | | Dak |
71.2
|
6
| Russ |
69.8
| | | Deshaun |
69.5
|
7
| Deshaun |
68.9
| | | Russ |
69.4
|
8
| Fitzmagik |
66.6
| | | Tannehill |
65.4
|
9
| Tannehill |
62.5
| | | Fitz |
64.7
|
10
| DCarr |
62.4
| | | DCarr |
63.7
|
QBR includes rushing plays, as I understand it; I don't think there's a passing-only implementation of QBR. Russ either 6th or 7th, depending on who's calculating it correctly.
(Edit: I just looked at ESPN https://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr/_/seasontype/2 , they have Russ 5th, flipped with Stafford by pctg pts. All values extremely close to these.)
PFR's AV
Approximate Value is a fun tool. I'm not trying to claim it's the final word; but I find it hella useful for looking at guys in the context of the HOF etc. It's a very intelligent stab at an utterly impossible task.
Prior to this year, the single-sesaon record for AV belonged to LaDainian Tomlinson 2006 (his season with 28 TDs). Top 15 all time:
26 – LDT '06
25 – Marshall Faulk '99, OJ '75
24 – Tom Brady '07, Rolland Lawrence '77 (who?)
23 – Jim Brown '64, Priest Holmes '02, Ray Lewis 2000, Wilber Marshall '86, Lydell Mitchell, Alan Page, Aaron Rodgers '11, Pat Swilling '91, Steve Young 93-94
After that, 17 players had a season with AV of 22, incl Derrick Brooks '02, Jim Brown '63, Terrell Davis '98. Marshall Faulk twice, Mahomes last year, Fouts, Bert Jones, Alan Page, JJ Watt, Steve Young '92
Here's your 2019 AV leaderboard:
| Player | AV |
|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 26 |
| Stephon Gilmore | 21 |
| Marcus Peters | 21 |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | 20 |
| Ronnie Stanley | 19 |
| Tre'Davious White | 19 |
| Cameron Heyward | 18 |
| Michael Thomas | 18 |
| Dont'a Hightower | 17 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 17 |
| Ryan Ramczyk | 17 |
Lamar joins LDT at the top of the list for highest-AV season in NFL history.
[EDIT – PFR has since recalculated their AVs for the 2019 season. Lamar now "only" has an AV of 24.]
Now: neither DYAR nor QBR nor AV is perfect. But we've used them all for years; and by this point we know that they're pretty good. They do what they do; and they are not bad at it. FO has been the most forthcoming over the years; PFR is terse but transparent, and damn consistent. QBR is the new kid on the block, and had some growing pains: but it's on sound footing. Extremely solid analyst team behind it.
Neither one of these Master Stats is perfect. But ALL of them have Lamar #1. AV grades him with an historic season; as do our eyes.
If you're barging into this space with a new Master Stat, as PFF is, and it produces output that diverges widely from these; then you bear a burden of proof.
PFF seems to understand that their stat is not persuasive all by itself. Their official case for Russ as MVP is that their Master Stat says so; but in their post about it, they engage in a fair amount of hand-waving to try to support it.
Let's start with the quantifiable statements:
“Only Lamar Jackson had fewer turnover-worthy plays (TWPs) than Wilson among quarterbacks who started all year, and he had just two fewer (nine to 11) despite attempting 153 fewer passes over the course of the season.”So first of all, Lamar's # of attempts was not 153 less than Russ's. I don't see where they get their number. Pro Football Ref has Lamar's # of pass attempts on the season as 401, and Russ's as 516, for a delta of 115. If you try to add in the postseason, Russ attempted 61 passes in the playoffs, but Lamar attempted 59, so the delta is still only 117. Where is this 150 coming from?
You can get close to that delta of 150 if you count, not pass attempts, but ALL dropbacks: pass attempts + sacks + scrambles:
| Stat | Lamar | Russ |
|---|---|---|
| Attempts | 401 | 516 |
| Sacks | 23 | 48 |
| Scrambles | 39 | 45 |
| sum | 463 | 609 |
That gives a delta of 146 dropbacks: pretty close to PFF's of 153 number.
BUT! Despite PFF feeling that rush plays don't count at all, there were in fact rushing plays. Lamar had 107 more non-scramble rush attempts than Russ did; more than 4-1/2 times the number Russ did, 137 to 30. Lamar fumbled once on all his runs (srambles + non-scrambles), a dramatic moment in the Niners game. I don't know how many times Russ did.
If we add together all their "scrimmage touches", we get a very different delta:
That's not a delta of 150. So the accurate statement here is that Lamar had one less turnover-worthy play on 39 less pass+rush attempts on the season. In other words, Russ did *NOT* do a better job taking care of the ball than Lamar.
| Stat | Lamar | Russ |
|---|---|---|
| Attempts | 401 | 516 |
| Sacks | 23 | 48 |
| Scrambles | 39 | 45 |
| non-Scram runs | 137 | 30 |
| total | 600 | 639 |
That's not a delta of 150. So the accurate statement here is that Lamar had one less turnover-worthy play on 39 less pass+rush attempts on the season. In other words, Russ did *NOT* do a better job taking care of the ball than Lamar.
PFF has been unbelievably sloppy here; if not downright dishonest.
(A factoid on QB fumbles: official NFL stats charge the QB with a fumble on bad snaps and on bobbled hand-offs. QBs always lead their team in fumbles. Russ was charged with 8 fumbles on the season; these don't seem to count among his "turnover-worthy plays" per PFF. Russ had 13 INTs, but only 11 "TWPs" according to the snippet above, so those fumbles have vanished. I'm going to take the same approach to Lamar's 9 charged fumbles on the year: treat only one of them as "real", the one from the Niners game.)
Also, it's weird that they don't mention sacks in discussing how the two players performed as QBs. Russell Wilson tied for the league lead in most-sacks-taken (with Kyler & Matt Ryan), and he was 5th from the worst (among qualifiers) in sack%. Lamar had the 7th-best sack pctg.
| Lamar | Russ | |
|---|---|---|
| Sack% | 5.7% | 8.5% |
That's a big difference! Russ takes sacks much more often than Lamar does: not just a higher raw total, but more often. And you can see why on tape. Lamar is much MUCH better at managing the pocket than Russ is. It isn't close. You can't watch the film and miss this. Lamar in 2019 is on a Drew Brees level in terms of pocket presence. He's passed Brady – probably more accurate to say that Brady has fallen behind Lamar due to age related decline.
Lamar took a big step forward after the Pittsburgh game, and esp after the bye. From week 6 thru the end of the season, Lamar was sacked at a rate of 3.2%. For comparison, on the season Brees was 3.1% and Mahomes 3.4%. Most running QBs take too many sacks; with Lamar, it's shocking when he gets sacked. From my vantage point on the couch watching TV, this doesn't have much to do with the O-line (except Stanley at LT is a rock). Most of it is skill and balance. Lamar takes small steps to navigate the pocket, Peyton- or Brady-esque. He moves just a little to give his O-linemen better leverage. The rest of it is Lamar's processing speed and ridiculous athleticism. He is so absurdly gifted at making a guy miss, that he can afford to be eerily calm with a guy bearing down on him. Just utterly unconcerned. Many times this season we've seen Lamar facing a a free rusher. If it's a LB, Lamar just ignores him; then, I dunno, phases thru him or something at the last instant, then snaps off his throw. If it's a DB – hell, we've seen Lamar just run away from corners, up the opposite sideline for a big gain. Preposterous.
Wilson's story is different. His sack% was worse than Deshaun Watson; was better only than Haskins, Tannehill, Flacco and Kyle Allen. The reason is that Russ drops his eyes at the first sign of trouble, and he holds the ball too long. He wasn't always like this, I think: but he was this year. Eight years of consistently shitty OLs taking their toll on him, perhaps. Whether it's chicken or egg, right now Russ's pocket presence is shitty. Lamar's sack percentage is much better because Lamar's skills and habits are much better, right now. Maybe Russ can get it back and Lamar will have it shell-shocked out of him.
So: PFF has been simply inaccurate on the quantifiable statement about turnover-caliber mistakes per play; and they have completely ignored the sack data. From here PFF proceeds with the hand-waving. I'm going to break apart a couple paragraphs into separate statements.
There *IS* something to concede here. Baltimore All-Pro LT Ronnie Stanley is much better than any O-lineman Seattle has; probably better than any O-lineman Russ has ever played with. Even in his 13th season and flirting with retirement, Marshall Yanda is better than anyone on Seattle's line. Two outstanding pieces to build a great line around. BUT. Glancing at PFR, I see that Seattle had 4 first-rd picks start 12-16 games for them, and 1 second-rd pick start 8. There's real talent there.
The Ravens had an UDFA center; then when he went down with injury, replaced him with another UDFA. Their starting LG was a sixth-rd pick. That's two lower-talent guys right in the middle of the line: the left A-gap. The RT is enormous and strong, but not super mobile. The Ravens OL is cohesive and well-coached; they play with high effort and good technique; but no one looks at them and forgets the 90s-era Cowboys. The Titans showed the talent limitations of the Ravens OL; and before them, the Niners did; and before them, the Steelers did.
This is not a wall of All-Pros. I think it's a "lumpy" group: the best Baltimore O-lineman is better than the best Seattle O-lineman, but I think the worst Baltimore O-lineman (Mekari? Bozeman?) is not as good as the worst (starting) Seattle O-lineman. High variance. Lamar raised this group's level of play.
I dunno, man. PFF seems to think that Lamar is in a situation where any QB would thrive, and Russell is in hell. I mean, maybe Russ is in hell: Brian Schottenheimer, shudder. And Petey has never seemed to put any effort into building a good O-line. But from my vantage 2700 miles away, it seems to me that if Lamar and Russ switched places, the Seattle offense would improve and the Baltimore offense would decline.
Out West:
That's how I see it. The sack% and the rushing success tell the story. If Russ & Lamar had swapped teams for the 2019 season, Seattle would have been better and Baltimore would have been worse. But maybe you see it differently.
This here is PFF's capstone; and to me it is the final throw-up-our-hands admission: “We fucked up! And we know it! We're just not sure exactly where.”
In early Dec they published a look at rushing QBs. I can't read it, subscription only, but here are the intro paragraphs:
I love Mark Ingram. But: he got to Baltimore and as a 30yo player he reversed a 2-year decline in his yards-per-carry to post a 5.0, while playing for an offense that ran the ball 56% of the time. Opposing defenses were READY for the run
And oh yeah, I hear they play a little football in college too.
This is not new information! The mechanisms are EXTREMELY well understood. A running QB forces the front 7 to hesitate for a second. They can't crash the RB. Backside guys have to keep contain in case of the bootleg. Front-side guys have to worry about being read, play their assignment & fundamentals and wait for the play to declare itself.
More fundamentally, the running QB changes the math on rush attempts. When a QB hands off, the defense is playing 11 on 10. The QB is out of the play, so 11 defenders are trying to tackle 1 runner who has 9 blockers. When the QB runs it, the defense no longer has a man advantage. It's 11 on 11. We heard all abou this when the Kaepernick Niners were making 3 straight conf championship appearances 7 & 8 years ago.
While Jackson had an entire offense built around his strengths and had a coaching staff that embraced analytics to extend drives and steal fine winning margins, Wilson was dealing with a situation that consistently put him behind the eight ball then asked him to dig the team out of a hole. The fact that he was able to do just that as consistently as he did only stands testament to his MVP-caliber season.Lamar was an outstanding-enough talent to justify building an entire offense around his strengths; therefore Russ is "more valuable". I don't fully track with the logic of this statement.
Wilson may not have been at the helm of an unstoppable juggernaut of an offense...Therefore Russ is "more valuable"? I have some trouble with that too.
... but consider the offensive line working in front of him. ... It’s definitely fair to say that those Ravens linemen benefitted from an offensive scheme and system that made their jobs easier — all of which was only possible because of their quarterback — but it’s equally as true to say that Wilson bailed his group out too, just in a different way.No. It is NOT equally true. Lamar does more to make his O-line better than any QB since Peyton Manning; I thnk more than any including Peyton Manning. Above I dissected Lamar's vs Russ's sack numbers. Lamar is in rarefied air as a pocket manager; Brees/Brady/Manning territory. He utterly erases free rushers; makes them a complete waste of time for defenses. Below we will discuss Lamar's impact on the running game. But between the two phases, it is not close. Lamar does more to help his O-line than any QB in the history of the game; and much more than Russ does.
There *IS* something to concede here. Baltimore All-Pro LT Ronnie Stanley is much better than any O-lineman Seattle has; probably better than any O-lineman Russ has ever played with. Even in his 13th season and flirting with retirement, Marshall Yanda is better than anyone on Seattle's line. Two outstanding pieces to build a great line around. BUT. Glancing at PFR, I see that Seattle had 4 first-rd picks start 12-16 games for them, and 1 second-rd pick start 8. There's real talent there.
The Ravens had an UDFA center; then when he went down with injury, replaced him with another UDFA. Their starting LG was a sixth-rd pick. That's two lower-talent guys right in the middle of the line: the left A-gap. The RT is enormous and strong, but not super mobile. The Ravens OL is cohesive and well-coached; they play with high effort and good technique; but no one looks at them and forgets the 90s-era Cowboys. The Titans showed the talent limitations of the Ravens OL; and before them, the Niners did; and before them, the Steelers did.
This is not a wall of All-Pros. I think it's a "lumpy" group: the best Baltimore O-lineman is better than the best Seattle O-lineman, but I think the worst Baltimore O-lineman (Mekari? Bozeman?) is not as good as the worst (starting) Seattle O-lineman. High variance. Lamar raised this group's level of play.
The other thing that differentiates Wilson’s performance is just how often he had to play from behind.Wilson's team fell behind more often; and that demonstrates that he is more valuable than Lamar? Mmm, this also leaves me unconvinced.
I dunno, man. PFF seems to think that Lamar is in a situation where any QB would thrive, and Russell is in hell. I mean, maybe Russ is in hell: Brian Schottenheimer, shudder. And Petey has never seemed to put any effort into building a good O-line. But from my vantage 2700 miles away, it seems to me that if Lamar and Russ switched places, the Seattle offense would improve and the Baltimore offense would decline.
Out West:
- The Seattle OL would instantly become better pass-blockers
- The Seattle RBs would instantly find more room to run
- Lamar would get to throw to Tyler Lockett & DK Metcalf
- More first downs, fewer punts, longer drives, couple more wins
- The Ravens interior OL would be exposed
- The Ravens pass-blocking would deteriorate (except for Ronnie Stanley)
- Rushing holes would shrink or close completely
- At WR Russ would be throwing to rookies Marquise Brown & Miles Boykin, along with some solid possession guys in Snead & Roberts.
That's how I see it. The sack% and the rushing success tell the story. If Russ & Lamar had swapped teams for the 2019 season, Seattle would have been better and Baltimore would have been worse. But maybe you see it differently.
This here is PFF's capstone; and to me it is the final throw-up-our-hands admission: “We fucked up! And we know it! We're just not sure exactly where.”
Some things are truly intangible and, as of yet, still unquantifiable. We can calculate the value that players brought to their teams above expected or even above the average at the position, but we can’t yet fully quantify the value of Lamar Jackson having such a unique and devastating skill set that it allowed an entire offense to be built around it from the ground up — an offense that made everybody’s job easier and worked in perfect harmony... It’s certainly reasonable to say that’s a blind spot in PFF’s numbers and determine, because of this, that Jackson is the worthy MVP, and you wouldn’t get much argument from us.“Reasonable to say it's a blind spot” – Ya think?!?
In early Dec they published a look at rushing QBs. I can't read it, subscription only, but here are the intro paragraphs:
Going into week 14, the Ravens were averaging an unbelievable 0.07 expected points added per run play, which was more than all but 11 teams were generating throwing the football (the Ravens are also first there). Precisely zero teams in the PFF era have generated a positive EPA on running plays over the first 14 weeks of a season, and only 28 teams in 14 years have managed a positive EPA on run plays during one full season.WHAT THE HELL IS THIS?!? Have the people at PFF watched any football games in the last 10-15 years? Everyone knows that running QBs make it easier for RBs to be successful on the ground. Even people who only watch the NFL, no college football, have still known for more than 15 years that running QBs make it easier for RBs to be successful.
A lot of this is, of course, is Jackson, who is leading the league in yards per rush attempt, generating over 0.12 EPA per run play on designed run plays (along with an outrageous 0.85 EPA on non-sack scrambles). However, Ravens run plays to running backs have been successful as well, with Mark Ingram II having a career year at age 30 (5.0 yards per carry, 0.11 EPA per attempt) and Gus Edwards building off of a great finish to his rookie year as his backup (5.1, 0.11).
This begs the question, do “running quarterbacks” make it easier for running backs to be successful on the ground?
- Michael Vick & Warrick Dunn & TJ Duckett showed us that in 2002 & '04
- Colin Kaepernick & Frank Gore showed us that in 2012-13.
- Russell Wilson & Marshawn Lynch showed us that in 2012-14.
- Tyrod Taylor & LeSean McCoy & Karlos Williams showed us that in 2014
- Cam Newton & Jonathan Stewart showed us that in 2015.
- Lamar Jackson & Gus Edwards showed us that in 2018.
I love Mark Ingram. But: he got to Baltimore and as a 30yo player he reversed a 2-year decline in his yards-per-carry to post a 5.0, while playing for an offense that ran the ball 56% of the time. Opposing defenses were READY for the run
And oh yeah, I hear they play a little football in college too.
This is not new information! The mechanisms are EXTREMELY well understood. A running QB forces the front 7 to hesitate for a second. They can't crash the RB. Backside guys have to keep contain in case of the bootleg. Front-side guys have to worry about being read, play their assignment & fundamentals and wait for the play to declare itself.
More fundamentally, the running QB changes the math on rush attempts. When a QB hands off, the defense is playing 11 on 10. The QB is out of the play, so 11 defenders are trying to tackle 1 runner who has 9 blockers. When the QB runs it, the defense no longer has a man advantage. It's 11 on 11. We heard all abou this when the Kaepernick Niners were making 3 straight conf championship appearances 7 & 8 years ago.
How the hell did PFF not get the memo???
In 2018:
Of course everyone understands that the last bit is the reason Lamar is the MVP. Lamar & Russ gained close to the same total yards (passing & rushing), with Lamar throwing a few more TD passes; AND Lamar improved his team's rushing attack, in a way & to an extent that no other QB in league history ever had before. Lamar led the league in TD passes; AND he rushed for 1200 yds with 7 more TDs. All by itself that's preposterous; but then Lamar ALSO created rushing lanes for his backs, thru the threat of his presence and his ball-handling in the option game, leading to the most prolific rushing offense in NFL history.
It just isn't possible for another player in 2019 to top those accomplishments.
Lamar did not manage all this because he had a dominating O-line; esp not on the left interior. He did not accomplish this because Marquise Brown & Mark Andrews are more productive pass-catchers than Tyler Lockett & DK Metcalf. He did not accomplish this because 30yo Mark Ingram is a more devastating runner than 25yo Chris Carson, or faster than 23yo Rashaad Penny.
In 2018:
- Games 1 thru 9, Ravens RBs rushed for 3.5 yards per carry, 175 rushes for 611 yds.
- Team went 4-5.
- Games 10 thru 16, Ravens RBs rushed for 5.4 yards per carry, 178 rushes for 965 yds
- Team went 6-1.
Of course everyone understands that the last bit is the reason Lamar is the MVP. Lamar & Russ gained close to the same total yards (passing & rushing), with Lamar throwing a few more TD passes; AND Lamar improved his team's rushing attack, in a way & to an extent that no other QB in league history ever had before. Lamar led the league in TD passes; AND he rushed for 1200 yds with 7 more TDs. All by itself that's preposterous; but then Lamar ALSO created rushing lanes for his backs, thru the threat of his presence and his ball-handling in the option game, leading to the most prolific rushing offense in NFL history.
- 1st in TD%;
- 2nd in FO's DVOA;
- 3rd in passer rating;
- 4th in PFR's "AdjNetYds per attempt";
- 8th in completion%;
- 8th in (best) sack%;
- 10th in (best) INT%;
- 11th in yards-per-attempt.
It just isn't possible for another player in 2019 to top those accomplishments.
Lamar did not manage all this because he had a dominating O-line; esp not on the left interior. He did not accomplish this because Marquise Brown & Mark Andrews are more productive pass-catchers than Tyler Lockett & DK Metcalf. He did not accomplish this because 30yo Mark Ingram is a more devastating runner than 25yo Chris Carson, or faster than 23yo Rashaad Penny.
It is true that Lamar was aided by having Greg Roman calling plays rather than human wheel boot Brian Schottenheimer. But mostly Lamar's team accomplished more on offense than Russ's team this season, because Lamar was flat-out more valuable than Russ was.
Please understand what I'm saying here. There are certainly aspects of quarterbacking that Russ is much better at than Lama. Russ understands coverages and blitzes better than Lamar does; and he still has ridiculous deep-ball placement. His judgement in avoiding INTs is terrific. But it's also true that Russ is much more skittish and ineffective managing the pocket than Lamar is; he doesn't make pass rushers look silly the way he used to; and he was never as gifted a runner as Lamar is.
Lamar just has greater impact on a game than Wilson does. It's why he won the Heisman at age 19 rather than finishing 9th in the Heisman voting as a senior; why he was drafted in the first round at age 21 rather than the second round at age 24; and why he became the youngest QB to start an NFL playoff game. He took over a .444 team, and they've gone 19-3 (.864) since then. He's that impactful.
It's ALSO true that it could all end any minute for Lamar. One tackler he doesn't see, one bad plant-&-twist in the turf. Russ has proven his toughness & smarts & availability; hasn't missed a game in 8 seasons, 9-6 record in postseason, made the postseason 7 seasons out of a possible 8, advanced 6 out of those 7 seasons. It's obvious that Russ on his career has been far more valuable than Lamar. Unfair comparison, but still true. Would take years for Lamar to build a career resume a third as impressive as Russ's. (Winning one playoff game would be a nice start.)
But in this single season; Lamar is the clear MVP over Russ, and it really isn't close. PFF needs to go back to the drawing board.
Lamar just has greater impact on a game than Wilson does. It's why he won the Heisman at age 19 rather than finishing 9th in the Heisman voting as a senior; why he was drafted in the first round at age 21 rather than the second round at age 24; and why he became the youngest QB to start an NFL playoff game. He took over a .444 team, and they've gone 19-3 (.864) since then. He's that impactful.
It's ALSO true that it could all end any minute for Lamar. One tackler he doesn't see, one bad plant-&-twist in the turf. Russ has proven his toughness & smarts & availability; hasn't missed a game in 8 seasons, 9-6 record in postseason, made the postseason 7 seasons out of a possible 8, advanced 6 out of those 7 seasons. It's obvious that Russ on his career has been far more valuable than Lamar. Unfair comparison, but still true. Would take years for Lamar to build a career resume a third as impressive as Russ's. (Winning one playoff game would be a nice start.)
But in this single season; Lamar is the clear MVP over Russ, and it really isn't close. PFF needs to go back to the drawing board.
Posts
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDeleteI read this when you first posted. Should have commented somewhere along the way. Terrific article
ReplyDelete