1200 Yards, 8 TDs As A Standard For WR

Last week Chris asked me to handicap the chance that Mark Clayton could have a 1200 yard, 8 TD season. I took a quick look at '08 and saw that those numbers would put him solidly in the top ten of both categories. I reasoned that since Clayton had never put up numbers close to this and since the Ravens had never even had a player put up these types of numbers that it was pretty unlikely and I replied 75:1. The question resonated with me over the weekend so I decided to take a little closer look this afternoon. Looking at the top ten receivers over the last six years, it turns out that 1200/8 really is a solid barometer of an elite season. Receivers who put up exactly those numbers would have made the top ten in at least one of those categories every year, two years exactly 1200/8 would have been in the top ten in both.

While it is fun to see forgotten names like Marc Boerigter jump off the page, it might be a little more interesting to see how likely it is for any receiver to put up those kind of numbers. Rather than strictly looking at 1200/8, I set the bar at the top ten in both of those categories. The top ten never dipped lower than 8 TDs but it did dip below 1200 yards a couple of times.

Anyhow, in the last six seasons, players have made both lists 41 times, an average of nearly seven times per year, suggesting that the two accomplishments are well correlated. Only once did a player finish at the top of one list without landing one the other. In 2006 Chad Johnson led the NFL with 1369 receiving yards, scoring 7 times while his teammates Houshmandzadeh and Chris Henry each tallied 9 TDs.

Landing on both of these lists has been accomplished by 25 different players. Marvin Harrison and Torry Holt did this four times over the last six years, Terrell Owens, Reggie Wayne and Larry Fitzgerald three times, while Chad Johnson, Hines Ward, Steve Smith and Randy Moss did it twice each.

I'm not exactly sure what to conclude from this. I guess it might be a little more likely that a guy like Clayton hits these types of numbers than I first thought, because the parlay isn't quite as difficult. I still wouldn't expect him to do it very often for a number of reasons. In every case either the receiver was already much more highly regarded than Clayton when they accomplished this or their quarterback and passing offense was much more prolific than Baltimore's, such as in the case of Marques Colston.

I guess maybe we can handicap this at 74:1 instead.

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TO: The Whirlwind

A tidbit from Peter King's MMQB I thought was pretty amusing:

In San Francisco, Jeff Garcia couldn't throw the ball deep enough and offensive coordinator Greg Knapp didn't appreciate Terrell Owens' talent. In Philadelphia, Owens wished Brett Favre and not Donovan McNabb was his quarterback, and he instructed coordinator Brad Childress not to speak to him anymore. And now, Owens has Tweeted some true feelings about the end of his time with the Cowboys, answering sentiment from a fan who was not happy to see T.O. leave Big D. The Twittered response from Owens: "Neither ws i, blame the OC & romo!! but i'm happy 2 b where i am but i miss the other guys tht were & r true teammates!!"

My response to that response: B afrd Trnt Edwrds and Trk Schnert. B vry afrd.

Owens likes the big arm QBs that toss it down-field, and can get him the ball all day every day. He's only happy when he's the center of the universe, and sometimes not even then.

So, Trent Edwards, eh? Oh, he of the 61.6% completion percentage and 10.9 yards per completion... Know who had a higher YPC than Edwards?

Jeff Garcia, when he was with San Fransisco...

And Donovan McNabb, always...

And Tony Romo, by a lot...

So let me get this straight. TO is on the offensive powerhouses of San Fran at the tail end of their dominance, the Eagles who go to Conference Championship games like kids taking a trip to the local pool, and the Cowboys who's offense has only been overshadowed by Tom Terrific Brady.

And now, he's going to Buffalo. Who has been 25th or worse offensively for the past six years. To play with a QB who is without question the worst of the four he'll have played with over the course of his career. And will probably lose their star RB to a suspension early in the year.

And we're expected to believe he's happy about this?

And that even if he is, that he'll stay that way?

As ... someone ... once said; get'cher popcorn ready!

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