The NFC I'd Like To See

It's not a prediction. It's not an analysis. It's simply a list of how I'd like to see the NFC playoffs pan out. Take a little bit of homerism, a little bit of drama queen, a dash of story line, and a bunch of unabashed opinionism, and you get the following playoff runs as your Must See NFC:

Wild Card Saturday features the Eagles returning to the scene of their latest debacle, Dallas. With a #2 seed on the line, the Iggs pissed down their leg to the tune of a 24-0 shutout and a #6 seed. Nice job, kids.

This is, by its own rights, a great game to have on the docket--the NFC East, above all others, specializes in grudge match divisional hatred. Mix that in with the fact that everyone in the US outside of Dallas hates Dallas and you've got a game to watch.

No team over the last decade exhibits the nature of Jekyll and Hyde as do the Eagles and their playoff runs. Capable of beating anyone on any given day, they can also lose to anyone when they feel like it. So, by that account, they should rebound nicely this week against the Cowboys, and the thought of seeing the image of Jerry Jones doing a slow burn on the 60 yard Jumbotron would be too precious for words.

But I told you, this isn't an analysis, and the best story lines down the road come from a Dallas win now, so I have to say, let the Cowboys win and let the Phans in Philly start their offseason whining a little early this year.

Wild Card Sunday features another do-over from last week, as the Packers whomped the Arizona Leinarts by a score of... I dunno, it was something like a billion vs. a late game pity TD. But no matter... Warner is back, and the real Cardinals show up this week.

It won't matter. The Packers have one goal in life right now, and the Cardinals are merely a speed bump along the road to Favregeddon. There will be about a mile and a half of passing yards in this game but the Packers move on to the next round.

The Divisonal Round would then send the Packers on the road to the Big Easy, where Darren Sharper will intercept 2 balls (returning 1 for a TD) against his old team, while also giving up 4 TD passes to the guy he's "covering." Never before has a 13-3 team looked like such a pack of trembling Pomeranians going into the playoffs, and of late, teams with byes haven't necessarily done too well in their first game back. The Packers send the Aints to an early golf date and an offseason of Who Dat anonymity.

This also means Dallas returns once again to the scene of one of the biggest crimes on NFL playoff history. Drew Pearson pushed off, we all know it, the Cowboys know it, the league knows it, the refs know it, Tom Landry's corpse knows it, Drew Pearson knows it, and even Drew Pearson's mom knows it. A thousand playoff deaths are not enough for the Cowboys, and who better than the Vikings to administer it to them? All that is right and holy triumphs against evil as the Cowboys to back to playing Madden 2010 on the big screen.

That brings us to the NFC Championship Game with the Minnesota Ex-Packers against the Green Bay Future Vikings. Favre has had the last laugh against the Pack twice this year, and the Packers were all but dead after the last one. But they've finished the second half of the season on a 7-1 run and they want to get to the Super Bowl less than they want to get even with their former hero.

Admit it. This is the game we all want to see. Not because of the Favre/Packer drama--well, a little bit, I guess--but because we're all looking forward to joining betting pools over which FOX broadcaster will have a stroke from overhyping the drama. We'll all play drinking games, taking a swig every time one of the crew says the word "Favre" and then have to finish the whole drink whenever one of them talks about how the only reason he came back was because of his love of the game. This will be so over the top with coverage, there will not only be coverage about how over the top the coverage is, but there will be coverage of the coverage about the coverage.

I've secretly harbored a dream that the Packers will go up early in this game, and then in the 3rd quarter, Favre the Ironman will leave with an injury. leaving the team to have to turn to emotionally abused scapegoat Tavaris Jackson to rally them in their crucial hour. And rally them he does, to a narrow lead. With minutes left and protecting that slim lead, Favre returns to the game by stealing Jackson's helmet, throws an interception, and the Packers drive down the field, only to come up short as time expires. The Vikings return to the Super Bowl after over 3 decades of absence.

OK, I'm a Viking homer. I admit it--I'd like to see them go to the Super Bowl. But there is also one more really good reason for everyone to want to see them there--chaos.

See, the NFL has a dandy plan this year to make you think that the Pro Bowl is actually relevant--they're holding it in the week between the conference title games and the Super Bowl. Apparently putting everyone to sleep in the middle of a two week hype fest is a new strategy.

This means the players in the Super Bowl will not actually be in the Pro Bowl, leaving them to find substitute players out of the pool of runners-up to the backups to the starters. The Vikings lead the way with a whopping 9 Pro Bowlers on the team, leaving the league to fill out a quarter of the roster after most guys have already gone to the Bahamas for some clubbing. This would be such a mockery of the new Pro Bowl plan that it would be a shame if it didn't happen.

There it is: High drama, fun matchups, a Viking Bowl appearance, and disruption of the Pro Bowl. What else better way for the NFC playoffs to unfold?

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It's Better To Be Lucky Than Good

Given the way today's Viking-Raven tilt went, I think I'm going to have to do the duty of commenting on this one. Two of my fellow bloggers here at Oblong Spheroid, Jim and Chris, are Ravens fans. Jim is probably still shaking his head at all of the good and the bad that we saw today. Chris is probably somewhere on a ledge on the tallest building in town... I hope he lives in a small town.

This game really did have it all--the good, the bad, and the ugly. At times, both teams were brilliant, and at times, absolutely inept. When the dust cleared, the Vikings remained undefeated for yet another week, and the Ravens were left shaking their heads and wondering "what if?" for a third week in a row.

On the Viking side of the field, the offense came out like gangbusters, with Favre drilling his way down the field to nab two TDs in the first two drives. Throughout the game, Sidney Rice continued his significant improvement over last season, making difficult adjustments on catches and making big plays when they were needed, en route to a 6-catch, 176-yard day. Adrian Peterson broke a nice run early, was shut down for most of the rest of the game, but made some more big plays late in the game. For 3 quarters or so, the run defense for the Vikings was incredible.

Then the wheels totally fell off. As the broadcasting crew of Dan Dierdorf and Greg Gumbel noted, this was an absolutely immense defensive collapse in progress. The run defense that was an immovable object for most of the game suddenly became a bunch of matadors waving the Raven RBs through the line and unhindered to the end zone. Ray Rice capitalized on some big gaps and made the Vikings look silly. The Viking D may have continued what is now the longest active streak in the NFL of holding the opponent without a 100 yard rusher, but they should have nothing to feel good about after that 4th quarter. To add injury to insult, Percy Harvin went down late in the 4th, closely followed by Adrian Peterson a few plays later (though Peterson was able to return).

This came after what would perhaps turn out to be the most important loss of the game, the departure of Antoine Winfield in the 2nd quarter. Winfield, in my opinion, is one of the most underrated players in the game. He doesn't have the big stats or the fancy strut of your stereotype "shutdown corner" but the guy is all about solid fundamental football. He tackles as good as just about any linebacker in the league, and is rarely ever out of position on a play. He is also fierce in coming back to help out in run defense, and is one of the key cogs in the Viking dominance against the running game. With him in there, I think he's there to stop at least one, if not both, of the long Ray Rice TD runs, and is playing better coverage on Derrick Mason than happened after he left.

On the Raven side of the ball, I finally got a chance to see Joe Cool in a situation where I had a good feeling for the context--sometimes it can be difficult to evaluate a player if you aren't familiar with the opposing defense, but I got to see him against the defense I watch every week. I came away impressed as hell with the kid, and definitely see where the Joe Cool moniker came from. Just ask Aaron Rodgers what it can be like to face the Viking D, since they ate him alive for 8 sacks a couple weeks ago. The Raven O-Line did a great job of stopping the Viking pass rush, though they did struggle in the running game until the 4th. Still, it was as good of an effort as I've seen against the Viking D-Line this year.

Just as impressive were the Raven receivers. (Wait, did I really just write that sentence?!) I thought they were tough and gritty on several of the big plays that Flacco made. There were at least a couple where Joe had to deal with strong Minnesota pressure and fling the ball as he was about to be crushed. On those plays, the Raven receivers ended up getting balls that required a leap or an adjustment, which they did even with some tight pressure by the defenders at times. Without the receivers making those plays, Flacco just ends up with some impressive looking incompletions.

Even as the 4th quarter was collapsing all around the Vikings, credit Favre with recognizing one significant weak point in the Raven defense: cornerback Frank Walker. Twice in the 4th, as the Ravens gave a free play to the Vikings via an offides jump, Favre blasted the ball downfield to whomever Walker was guarding. Both times resulted in pass interference calls that were so blatant even Referee Pitman could call them, though only the first was enforced since Sidney Rice caught the second one despite the interference. Both set up Viking scores, which proved rather significant given the close finish.

And speaking of the finish--let's just say Steven Hauschka is no Matt Stover. Despite the abysmal start by the Ravens, they still had a chance to pull this one out in the final seconds with a 47 yard field goal. Yet, in a windless and warm domed stadium, the Ravens lost yet another game in the closing moments.

Both teams had plenty of positives to feel good about, but I don't think either team is going to feel at all good about the game anyway. There were too many mental-error penalties (especially false starts by the Ravens and offsides by the Vikings), too many blown coverages in both the running game and passing game, too many sloppy moments for either team to enjoy. Certainly the Ravens won't, and I suspect the Vikings are going to feel like they got away with one--after the magnitude of the 4th quarter collapse, they really do have plenty of room to continue to improve.

Still, someone had to win, and though I was actually suspecting the Ravens would pull it out (given the rule of thumb that the most desperate team usually wins), the Vikings managed to sneak away with another game en route to a 6-0 record.

The one silver lining for both teams is that they were neither the Titans, who lost 59-0 in a game that wasn't even as close as the score indicated, nor the Iggles, who actually managed to find a way to lose to the Raiders. Ouch and ouch.

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Favre: "Look at me! Hey! I'm over here! Look!"

In what seems like ages ago now, some optimistic blogger wrote:

[Vick signing with the Eagles] is going to become the new media obsession. His first practice, first preseason game, the time he'll have to sit out, the reinstatement, the first regular season game. We're going to hear about it all. In all things, there is an upside, though--at least we won't get anymore stories about Brett Favre's un-re-un-re-un-re-un-re-tirement for a while.

Well, it was true. For all of 3 days. Thank you, Jay Glazer, for picking at this scab.

Favre is clearly one of the better QBs in NFL history, and he's a no-brainer to be a first ballot Hall of Famer. And this is coming from a guy who watched Favre burn his favorite team more times than he can count over the past 15 years. I'm no fanboi. But unless time travel is finally available and the Vikings get the mid- to late-90s era Favre, this really isn't going to be a major impact to the bottom line.

Favre is the type of QB who can go out and single-handedly win you a couple of games you had no business winning. Last year's 6 TD performance against the Cardinals is a case in point--the Jets give up 35 points at home, yet win running away. There is no doubt that Favre can still have a similar effect for the Vikings a year later, and perhaps give the Vikings another one or two wins in games they had no business winning.

He's also capable of producing some absolute clunkers. He was dreadful down the stretch for the Jets last year. Even if we give him the benefit of the doubt for his injury (which is pretty generous considering he hasn't recovered yet and still hasn't met Brian Urlacher on the field this season), he's turned in some memorable collapses in recent years when the stakes were highest: the 6 INT performance against the Rams during the 2001 playoffs or the 4 INT performance against the Vikings during the 2004 playoffs, for starters. How about the INT in overtime at home against the Giants in his last playoff game?

Here's the bottom line: Favre wearing Viking horns will result in the Purple winning a couple of games they shouldn't have won. It will also result in the Purple losing a couple of games they shouldn't have lost. The end result will be a wash--a couple ecstatic victories for a couple of agonizing losses.

If the Vikings go anywhere this year, it is going to be on the strength of the defense and the dynamic power of their running game. Those are traditionally a pretty strong basis for a championship team. Sage Rosenfels, the starting QB of the current 10 minutes (at least), isn't going to make anyone flash back to the days of Fran Tarkenton. But he's likely to be acceptable enough to pull a Trent Dilfer for the team and give them a shot.

One could debate the analogy between Rosenfels and Dilfer, but that would sort of be like arguing who you'd rather have save your life if you needed emergency surgery: Frank Burns or Nick Riviera. If you're in that situation in the first place, you've done something horribly, horribly wrong, and that's what the Vikings have managed to do to themselves at QB during the Brad Childress era. Luckily for the Ravens, it worked out with Dilfer. It remains to be seen if it will with the Vikings, or if they'll go with another doctor entirely with Favre, the football equivalent of Dr. Jekyll (and Mr. Hyde).

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Paying Respect

I love how the NFL kicks off their year with the Hall of Fame induction. It's a great way to start a new season--paying respect to the players, coaches, and owners who came before to pave the way, and to remind everyone of the league's history and roots.

This year is another phenomenal class:

Bob Hayes	WR for the Cowboys, Niners
Randall McDaniel	OG for the Vikings, Bucs
Bruce Smith	DE for the Bills, Redskins
Derrick Thomas	LB for the Chiefs
Ralph Wilson Jr.	Owner of the Bills and co-founder of the AFL
Rod Woodson	CB/S for the Steelers, Niners, Ravens, and Raiders

As the resident Viking fan/apologist/critic, I'm thrilled to see McDaniel make the Hall. It almost excuses the voters for not making him a first-ballot inductee last year. But he's in, and he deserves it--he helped define the position for a decade and was synonymous with the Vikings throughout his tenure with the Purple.

The Minneapolis StarTribune ran a great article on him this past Sunday. Unfortunately, I can't link it here because it is one of the articles in the Strib's new "special offline content only for paper subscribers" business strategy. It's a great read, but I suspect many of the same stories will come out during the induction speech this weekend, so I won't dwell on the details of what a great athlete he was as a kid.

What impresses me a ton, though, is how he has transitioned out of football into "real life" as seamlessly as any player I've ever seen. He moved straight from the NFL into teaching elementary school. Power to him--if I had several million dollars in the bank from my career, that's about the last thing I'd want to do.

But not only does he do it, but he loves it and is great at it. The Strib article had a great story from when he was in college and was already helping out at local schools near Arizona State. He used to go into classrooms to read to them. The feedback he got from the kids? "Reading is for women and sissies." At least that's what he heard until he started reading to them--having a starting player from the local college football team turned some attitudes around.

I'm thrilled to see him get recognized for his on-field accomplishments, but his off-field accomplishments are the even bigger story here. Not just because of his involvement in the community, but for showing other players how to adapt to life outside the stadium.

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Brett Favre Won't Go Away

So in the seemingly neverending saga of "When will Brett retire for good," reports are now indicating that Favre will meet with Brad Childress. From the link:

Citing an anonymous source "with direct knowledge of the discussions between the two parties," ESPN reported Tuesday that Favre is scheduled to meet with Vikings coach Brad Childress later this week about a possible comeback with Minnesota.

Chalk me up as one of the many that is truly sick of this Drama Queen. Brett, buddy, you're either done or you're not. But at this point, most of us are simply sick of you, and if you actually expect anyone to believe it when you tell us you're hanging the laces up, you're out of your mind.

This has to hurt Packer nation. If I were a Packers fan, I'd be furious. Enough so that I might make a special trip down to Mississippi and pee on his lawn. One of the greatest quarterbacks of all time decides to play one final time for the mortal enemy? Even Favre giving it thought has to be insulting, and I find it hard to imagine it won't at least somewhat taint his legacy.

Anyway, the whole thing is really irritating, so that's all I'm gonna say on the subject.

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A Response

Different teams, different times.

Our loyalties skew our perceptions both at the margins and at the extremes. In '90 with the Bad Boys ascendent I watched stretches of their games in the middle of the season where I thought that there had probably never been better team play. It was probably 15-30 games in December and January where they simply battered every opponent, in a similar way. The opposition would quit by the second quarter, you could see it in their body language.

I'm sure if I was to attack the question today I probably wouldn't even find that they had any historically significant stretches from an historical standpoint. But I know what I saw.

The '08 Raven defense isn't remotely close to the '00 one. Put last year's offense with this year's defense and they have a losing record.

It isn't really accurate to call the '08 squad 'more ball-hawking' unless you are simply arguing that more of their success is from turnovers. They've forced 39 turnovers this year, which is very respectable. The '00 team had 51 which is fairly mind-boggling. The '00 team pitched four shutouts and allowed 75 fewer points.

So we will have to settle for the '00 Ravens having the best defense of ever with the '08 one being one of the many runners up. Except, the '00 defense isn't really in that conversation either.

Stuart Chase wrote an article at Pro Football reference discussing some methodology for determining the great defenses. Using two scoring parameters and two yardage parameters he found five teams (the year's Steeler team is the fifth) who led the NFL in all categories. The greatest defense ever may be something of a surprise

1969 Vikings: Post-season failures by the team enabled this dynastic defense to fade into oblivion. The ‘69 Vikings went 1-1-1-1 in our four categories; the ‘70 version went 1-1-1-3 and the ‘71 team went 1-1-2-2. The Vikings had a three year stretch that was never matched. If you add their ranking in each season, you get a total of sixteen. The next best stretches are the ‘84-’86 Bears (24), the ‘86-’88 Bears (27), the ‘85-’87 Bears (27), ‘74-’76 Rams (30), ‘62-’64 Packers (33), ‘72-’74 Steelers (33). The closest modern teams are the ‘95-’97 49ers (38), the ‘99-’01 Ravens (43), ‘02-’04 Bucs (50) and ‘04-’06 Ravens (51).

The ‘69 Vikings allowed 133 points, 0.9 OTA/G, 0.96 ANYAA and 3.47 AYPCA. NFL averages were 301, 2.3, 4.70 and 4.62.

We can see that although the '00 defense doesn't particularly stand out historically, this flavor of Ravens has probably had the longest stretch of dominance - well at least since 1960. To me that is their accomplishment. This year's defense is not quite on par with either the '00 or '06 one, relative to the league, but it is still very good. It is very hard and very rare to be able to sustain a great defense over time. The Bears' longevity from '84-'88 was terribly impressive, but not close to the ten year stretch that the current Raven squad has enjoyed.

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