The Patriots From 1-82

Okay, to begin with I didn't know there was such a thing as ESPN Boston. I am fairly nauseated by the concept. I don't know how many other ESPN [insert city name]s there are. Suffice to say that not all of the major sports markets are covered.

But this isn't about that.

On the ESPN Boston site Mike Weiss ranked the New England Patriot roster in importance from 1-82. I thought it was a pretty cool idea even if I don't have much of an opinion of Stephen Gostkowski at #23 versus Taylor Price at #42.

A couple of things cross my mind though.

First, if Wes Welker is truly the Patriots' 2nd most important player, the team could be in trouble. Welker might be back by the beginning of the season. On the other hand he might hit the PUP and be out for the first 6 weeks. I'm sure Patriot fans will be relieved that I really don't believe that Wes Welker is their 2nd most important player.

The other thing that crosses my mind - and maybe this is a Duh! moment - is that you can really tell the prospects of a team by looking at their top 10 players. Maybe it isn't 10, maybe it is 8 or 12 but you get the point. It's great to have a special teams stud or a great punter but if either of those guys are among your 10 (or 20) most important players, your team is probably in big trouble.

So that Pat's top ten?

Tom Brady

Agreed he is their most important player. I kind of wonder if he is still their best though.

Wes Welker
Jerod Mayo
Vince Wilfork

If not Brady then Wilfork. It is hard to imagine this defense being very effective with Wilfork sidelined.

Randy Moss
Brandon Meriweather
Sebastian Vollmer

I get what Weiss is arguing. These guys probably are a bit high on production alone, particularly Vollmer. New England needs for each of these players to become stars if they are to move back into the elite.

Logan Mankins
Darius Butler

Same thing with Butler. He had an outstanding rookie year. The team really needs for him to lock down that #1 CB spot.

Tully Banta-Cain

Okay.

So is this a top ten that can win a Super Bowl? I really doubt it. There are a handful of really good players but then there is another handful all of whom have to take big steps to put the team over the top. Looking at the next ten only Julian Edelman and 1st rounder Devin McCourty are young enough to also be in that category of players who might also develop, and if the team relies on Edelman it would mean that Welker is out, so no real help there.

Still, kind of a cool idea. I'm sure by midnight Chris will be hammering out the Ravens from 1-82. Hint, Chris: Flacco is #1.

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Lose - Lose

So the Raiders acquire Richard Seymour for a pick that will likely fall in the top 20 picks, Seymour represents a one year rental as he will be a free agent after the season anyway. Belichick goes back to the fool me n times well and picks Oakland's pocket yet again. They will assuredly trade down, acquiring multiple picks in the 22 - 53 range which they will use to reload the roster. It's getting to the point that the Raiders might require an intervention. So big win for the Patriots right?

Not so fast.

It isn't that New England didn't get the better part of the deal on paper, they did. The problem is that this deal turns a position of strength into a position of somewhere-around-averagedness. Even this isn't necessarily bad in a vacuum There are about 20 teams for whom this would make a lot of sense.

New England isn't one of them.

To be fair, this is just a rehash of earlier arguments I made when the Patriots had problems with Deion Branch and Asante Samuel. Teams that are legitimate contenders for the Super Bowl have narrow windows. They simply cannot purposely make themselves weaker during a contending season. I'll leave off the Branch/Samuel discussion which has been argued ad nauseum elsewhere and simply focus on the Seymour one.

I guess I should explain that I assume that the Patriots consider themselves Super Bowl contenders and my argument stems from there. If Belichick and his evil cronies deep within Mount Foxborough have determined that a championship is out of their reach in 2009 then this move makes a great deal of sense. I have a hard time believing that they've thrown in the towel on this season though so there it is.

Over the winter the Patriots traded away Mike Vrabel (and Ellis Hobbs) while Tedy Bruschi and Rodney Harrison retired. While none of those players were still Pro Bowl caliber, they did represent a great deal of steadiness and leadership. In a sense they are irreplacable, but in another they are only replaceable with superior talent. New England brought in a pair of reasonably good corners to shore up the team's weakest point. DROY Jerod Mayo is entering his second year, the team acquired Derrick Burgess for a handful of magic beans. Added to a core that included Vince Wilfork and Seymour there are plenty of playmakers. All is well.

Remove Seymour from that mix though, and now the team appears to be a playmaker short. It isn't that New England doesn't have bodies to replace Seymour. 2nd rounder Ron Brace and 6th rounder Myron Pryor both played well at tackle and appear to be ready for the NFL.

It's just that neither are Richard Seymour.

Various web and print sources think that New England will rely on their defensive line depth to run more 4-3 fronts, and I suppose that makes good sense, but they could have done the same with Seymour. Now they are in a position where they will almost be forced into a 4-3 base which will impact their already suspect pass defense.

They'll win games. They'll probably win the division. They'll be in the playoffs and from there, who knows? While the team was in a bit of a transition, it was in a bit of a transition with a guy named Tom Brady on the roster. In 3-4 years when the payoff from this deal starts benefiting the roster, Brady will almost be in the decline phase of his career, if not the twilight. Handicapping the team now for some kind of nebulous future reward is a terrible decision. Championships are rare creatures that are terribly difficult to capture even with a full arsenal. This might be the one chink in Belichick's armour, a blind spot or arrogance to denude the roster of important talent when the team is otherwise elite. Perhaps it will work out differently this time.

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