A couple of weeks ago Chris emailed me asking how I thought Michael Turner would do in 2009. A number of thoughts went through my head, mostly in response to some of the issues he raised in the email. Eventually I replied something to the effect of 'I have a lot of thoughts about this, do you mind if I blog it instead?'. He didn't mind, but I think he expected my article sometime before never. This morning he sent out a similar email to the whole crew this time, and with a little more urgency as he had some kind of fantasy thingy and the answer to this question weighed heavily on his fantasy strategy. What ensued was a series of emails from the four of us.
Chris On my [draft] board, Steven Jackson is higher than Michael Turner. How much of an idiot am I for that?
Jim I assume the Jackson vs Turner thing is driven by gut instinct? Can't argue with it: you could easily turn out to be right. If you want some rationalizations, Jackson is a year+ younger than Turner, and did not have 370+ carries last year.
Chris The "Curse of 370" is a part of it, yeah. Other factors I'm tossing around in my head in no particular order that have me thinking this way:
- Jackson is running behind a newly beefed up OL. His OL was one of the worst in the bigs and he still managed 4.1/carry, now he's got Smith and Brown on there to help out.
- Jackson gets catches as well as carries. Bulger has no receivers, and you know Boller will check down too.
- Turner got a ridiculous work-load last year. It's almost impossible for me to see him getting 375 carries again this year.
- ATL's OL last year was supposed to be horrible and played out of their minds. Regression this year?
- ATL in general played out of their minds. Regression this year?
- Turner scorched the bad teams. Of his 1,700 yards and 17 TDs, almost 800 of them (47%) and 7 of them (41%) came against Detroit, KC, GB, Oak, and StL...31% of the games. And he scored 4 TDs on 117 yards against Carolina as well. He had 6 games where he had 70 or fewer rushing yards, averaging 57 yards per game in them and scoring two TDs in them. Six games where he scored no TDs.
- Tougher schedule for ATL this year than they had last year. The NFCE is on their plate.
- Playoff schedule: Turner - NO, @NYJ, Buff Jackson - @ Tenn (no Haynesworth), Hou, @ AZ
Also weighing on me is that Jackson has had injuries these past two years. But I think both years we knew that he was aching prior to the start of the season. Maybe I'm wrong about that? I don't remember. Either way, it's a concern. But 376 carries for Turner, plus another 18 in the post-season. Ugh... That's so much work. I feel almost like Turner's as much of an injury risk as Jackson is...
Patrick You think 41% of someone’s yards coming in 5 games is unusual? I sure don’t, I’ll bet that is very typical.
I don’t have much of an opinion on Jackson you might be trying to be a little too clever. I doubt it matters much which you pick but I think you are trying to carve a conclusion out of cherry-picked information.
Chris The TDs is probably usual. But it wasn't 41%, it was 47% of his yards. I don't particularly think it's unusual to have ups and downs, everyone has that. And yeah, it's cherry-picking to an extent. I'm just very scared of the overworked factor.
One of the reasons is probably because I've been burned by it before. I've been the unlucky owner of Larry Johnson and Shaun Alexander coming off their huge seasons, as well as Jamal Lewis off his.
The one thing I can't get over though... The only way I don't see Turner having a big decrease in effectiveness is if the Falcons use him far less than they did last year. There's almost no chance he can go another 350+ carries at the levels he had last year, right? Even if he continues to get 4.5/carry, if they only feed it to him 300 times to keep him "fresh," that's 1,350 yards. Good, but nowhere near where I think people expect him to be, and probably not good enough for the #2 overall pick. His TDs likely also go down in that scenario, and he has absolutely no value as a receiver. So naturally, Steven Jackson getting 1,200 yards on the ground and another 350 in the air is more valuable than Turner getting 1,350 on the ground.
It's not that I think Turner will suck. He's still top 5 on my FFL backs. I just think Jackson's gonna have a bigger year. And quite frankly, I think the risk of Jackson crippling my fantasy team is lower than the risk Turner does it (a function of my "being burned" before)...
The Other James I honestly don't have a resounding negative take on Turner, other than: the 370 rule, regression to the norm, and the fact that defensive coordinators now have a year of tape to study in the offseason. I still expect him to have a strong year, though.
With Jackson, I do believe last year was still affected by bigger injuries suffered the year before, as well as horrendous overall team play (line, QB injuries, etc.) There's a new coach in town, and the players seem to love the new tone. The core of the team seems to be healthy at the moment. I haven't heard anything about any nagging injuries to Jackson and he's seemed strong in workouts. He has a longer track record of strong play than Turner, but that isn't always a big deal.
Patrick I don’t know why you’d expect Jackson to get 1200 on the ground. Three of his last four years have been astonishingly similar, apart from games played.
237 – 253 carries, 1002 – 1046 yards, 5 – 8 TDs, 38 – 43 rec., 271 – 379 yards, 1 – 2 TDs.
If you ask yourself, ‘self, what kind of a year can I expect from Steven Jackson’, the answer should be pretty clear. Could he have a better year than Turner? Of course. Will he? I have no idea. I think a lot of your arguments with respect to Turner are questionable. I don’t know what the mean performance for Atlanta should be but I am pretty sure that last year was much closer than 2007. Excepting ’07, the Falcons finished 5th, 3rd, 1st, and 2nd in rushing attempts the last five years, with similar rankings for yards and touchdowns. On the other hand, St. Louis finished 30th, 29th, 23rd, 24th, and 28th in attempts the last five years. Regardless of the relative philosophies of Mike Smith and Steve Spagnowhatever it is pretty clear that St. Louis is built to pass while Atlanta is built to run.
As far as Turner’s workload, I agree that it will likely be diminished but I think a lot of the rule of 370 is nonsense anyway, that prior injury is a much stronger indicator of future decline, and in that area Jackson is the champ. The thing with 370 is that if you look at their list, age is the stronger corrolator than number of carries. In the case of Johnson, et al, they had all come off multiple seasons of heavy workloads and were at an advanced age in running back years. I don’t know what Turner’s true “running back age” is but it certainly isn’t as old as Jackson’s despite the large number of carries last year. Jackson has 1200 carries and (at least) four injuries that have cost him games over the last five years. Turner has half as many carries and 1-2 injuries (he may not have been active for his entire rookie season). They have both played in the NFL the same number of years.
Chris The "aside from games played" is one important piece of this. '05 and '06 were a little out there on either side. '05 is closer to his normal performance, but that was over 15 games whereas '07 and '08 were over 12 games. He got 20 carries per game on average the last two years. If he stays healthy, that's 320 this year, and even if you give him 4.1 per carry which is his career low that's over 1,300 yards on the ground this year. The past two and three of the last four he's averaged 325 receiving, not counting his '06 season which was off the charts ridiculous...I don't expect 2,300 combined this season of course.
Yeah they were built to pass more than run, but I think that's more a result of the coaching than anything else. Plus Torry Holt and that whole era being held over. Bruce just went last year, now Holt, and Spags is saying he's going to focus far more on the running game this season.
That said, the "overall mileage" on Turner is less than Jackson and lack of prior injury is also a big factor. The main reason I'm still even considering this is cause Jackson's missed 4 games each of the last two years.
I just sorta feel like they're both gonna wind up with around 300 carries, and that Turner will have the higher per carry avg but Jackson will have the receiving yards.
FWIW, Jamal wasn't advanced age when he came off his 2,000 yard season. He was 24 or 25 years old. LJ was 28/29, but he had only had one year prior to his ridiculous 416 carry season where he was the primary runner, so he wasn't high mileage.
BTW, I think one of the reasons the Falcons finished '04 through '06 5th or better for rushing attempts was because Vick had over 100 attempts each of those years. He made up 20% - 25% of the team's rushing attempts those seasons. I don't think it was that they were built for running as much as they had a QB that liked to run. With that said, I think they're still set up to run this year.
Patrick Lewis had already missed an entire year with a knee before his record-setting year. That’s like 7 dog years right there. Johnson was run into the ground his ‘one year’. You may recall that Priest got hurt halfway through and that Johnson only started the last nine games. In those games he averaged 29 carries with a low of 22. In his first 25 starts Johnson averaged 27 carries/game. Herm Edwards should be shot for punishing him like that and Peterson should have been fired before giving him another contract after that abuse. Last year Turner averaged 23 carries/game which is too many, but it isn’t a LOT too many. Get him down to 20 carries/game and we are talking about a very sustainable 320 att/year. Johnson is interesting because he presents a close precedent for Turner, a talented back who backed up a Hall of Famer (or near HoFer) for a few years before getting his opportunity. I don’t recall any other elite backs who followed this path, most are used and used up by the time they hit 27.
It doesn’t really matter if Spagnuolo wants to run or not. For three straight years Marinelli ‘pounded the rock’ (his words), they fired Martz to further emphasize the run. They finished 32, 32, and 31 in rushes during his tenure. When your team is down two scores you aren’t going to be rushing nearly as much as when your team is up two scores. We all know this. IMO the Rams (or Raiders) are the worst team in the NFL. Jackson is a good running back, even a great talent, but I wonder what kind of opportunity he will get. To his credit he is a three down back, and will get receptions to augment his carries, but to what extent they replace the carries that Turner gets as a natural product of being part of an offense that is not only going to emphasize the run, but will also be able to execute the run is somewhat questionable.
Substitute Vick’s attempts for something on the high end of normal, like 50 carries (Philip Rivers/Matt Ryan level) and the Falcons are still top ten in attempts each of those years.
Chris Good point on the Falcons.
I'm smelling another blog article with "elite backs underutilized till later in their career." DeAngelo might qualify although he was running behind Stephen Davis who is anything but a near Hall of Famer. Maybe Jamal Anderson running behind Heyward (another non-entity)? Though that was only for two seasons. Rudi Johnson for two and a half years behind Dillon maybe.
The Other James Don't forget that they also had Duckett and/or Norwood, too. They went with Dunn as the small quick back and Duckett/Norwood as the bowling ball quite a bit. Duckett/Norwood had at least 100 carries each during that span (OK, so Duckett had 99... close enough for a rounding error). They were getting a good 370+ carries a season out of their primary RB pair without Vick's 100 or so on top. So, it's a little bit of both--a running team with a running QB, in net producing huge running stats.
Jim Remember my little "study" on peak years for football players? RB's peaked at around age 24.
(I remember James had a methodological concern, wanted to see averages in addition to whatever I put in my table. Maybe I'll redo it with the most recent PFR data.)
Not sure why you would dis Stephen Davis, he was a 3-time Pro Bowler. Scored 17 TDs one year; led the league in rushing attempts another year, in one of his non- Pro Bowl seasons.
Chris Well, he wasn't good in Carolina after DeAngelo, but I got his name mixed up with DeShaun Foster who was horrendous. No excuse for Foster getting those touches instead of DeAngelo.
~
So all-in-all we conclude nothing, and Chris wound up taking Steven Jackson.
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
What To Expect From Michael Turner
Monday, August 17, 2009
Favre: "Look at me! Hey! I'm over here! Look!"
In what seems like ages ago now, some optimistic blogger wrote:
[Vick signing with the Eagles] is going to become the new media obsession. His first practice, first preseason game, the time he'll have to sit out, the reinstatement, the first regular season game. We're going to hear about it all. In all things, there is an upside, though--at least we won't get anymore stories about Brett Favre's un-re-un-re-un-re-un-re-tirement for a while.
Well, it was true. For all of 3 days. Thank you, Jay Glazer, for picking at this scab.
Favre is clearly one of the better QBs in NFL history, and he's a no-brainer to be a first ballot Hall of Famer. And this is coming from a guy who watched Favre burn his favorite team more times than he can count over the past 15 years. I'm no fanboi. But unless time travel is finally available and the Vikings get the mid- to late-90s era Favre, this really isn't going to be a major impact to the bottom line.
Favre is the type of QB who can go out and single-handedly win you a couple of games you had no business winning. Last year's 6 TD performance against the Cardinals is a case in point--the Jets give up 35 points at home, yet win running away. There is no doubt that Favre can still have a similar effect for the Vikings a year later, and perhaps give the Vikings another one or two wins in games they had no business winning.
He's also capable of producing some absolute clunkers. He was dreadful down the stretch for the Jets last year. Even if we give him the benefit of the doubt for his injury (which is pretty generous considering he hasn't recovered yet and still hasn't met Brian Urlacher on the field this season), he's turned in some memorable collapses in recent years when the stakes were highest: the 6 INT performance against the Rams during the 2001 playoffs or the 4 INT performance against the Vikings during the 2004 playoffs, for starters. How about the INT in overtime at home against the Giants in his last playoff game?
Here's the bottom line: Favre wearing Viking horns will result in the Purple winning a couple of games they shouldn't have won. It will also result in the Purple losing a couple of games they shouldn't have lost. The end result will be a wash--a couple ecstatic victories for a couple of agonizing losses.
If the Vikings go anywhere this year, it is going to be on the strength of the defense and the dynamic power of their running game. Those are traditionally a pretty strong basis for a championship team. Sage Rosenfels, the starting QB of the current 10 minutes (at least), isn't going to make anyone flash back to the days of Fran Tarkenton. But he's likely to be acceptable enough to pull a Trent Dilfer for the team and give them a shot.
One could debate the analogy between Rosenfels and Dilfer, but that would sort of be like arguing who you'd rather have save your life if you needed emergency surgery: Frank Burns or Nick Riviera. If you're in that situation in the first place, you've done something horribly, horribly wrong, and that's what the Vikings have managed to do to themselves at QB during the Brad Childress era. Luckily for the Ravens, it worked out with Dilfer. It remains to be seen if it will with the Vikings, or if they'll go with another doctor entirely with Favre, the football equivalent of Dr. Jekyll (and Mr. Hyde).
Read more...
Friday, August 14, 2009
Surprising no one, Vick returns to the NFL
The big NFL news of the day is Michael Vick signing with Philly.
It should be of no surprise that someone signed Vick. Of course someone would--as much as the NFL (and its fans) would like to think that at some point, character issues outweigh tantalizing talent, the reality is that when you get a player that is as captivating as Vick is when he's at his best then he's going to find someone who will turn a blind eye to it. On a side note, it'll be interesting to see how Vick does in Philadelphia, the city that booed Santa Claus. I expect to see plenty of dog collars on the Beagles... uh... Eagles fans this season.
But this isn't about Vick's character issues, whether he should or should not be allowed to play again, or which Philly fan will be the first one to sing "Who Let The Dogs Out?" when Vick hits the field. No, this post is about what Philadelphia is actually going to do with him on the roster.
The obvious and quick answer is that Kevin Kolb sprained his knee so the Eagles need to line up another backup QB. But Kolb's knee isn't expected to be season-ending, and AJ Feeley is tolerable enough to fill the gap.
The NFL is a copycat league... and this year, the cat being copied is going to be a wild one--the trendy Wildcat formation that Miami had so much success with last season. In the Wildcat, the snap goes directly to the running back. Really, what better role is there for Vick? We all know his running ability, and as a passer he has one of the strongest arms in the league (though with accuracy that approaches Shaq at the free throw line some days).
You don't sign a player with Vick's talent if you don't intend to use it, and you don't sign a player with Vick's baggage if you don't intend to try to get something positive in return for the distraction it brings to the team. McNabb is still clearly the starter, so there has to be another way to get Vick on the field. Getting him a few plays a game in situations designed just for him seems to be a good way to get him back into the speed of the NFL game. Andy Reid is certainly capable of figuring out a way to get the most of Vick.
So, the bottom line for Vick? A few rushes, a few passes, and probably a few highlight reel runs in the process. Lots of mocking in every stadium he plays in, including his home field. Dog collars thrown at him in Dallas, snowballs thrown at him in Philly. It's a shame he won't get to play against Cleveland and the Dawg Pound.
This is going to become the new media obsession. His first practice, first preseason game, the time he'll have to sit out, the reinstatement, the first regular season game. We're going to hear about it all. In all things, there is an upside, though--at least we won't get anymore stories about Brett Favre's un-re-un-re-un-re-un-re-tirement for a while.
Sunday, August 9, 2009
Expectations for the Now Sophomore QBs
Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco bucked a popular media trend of rookie QBs that do not play well. I say “a popular media trend” because while QBs that start as rookies don’t tend to play as well as they do for the rest of their careers, there are certainly examples of those that have played well. I’ve read some call Matt Ryan’s season possibly the best rookie season since the “passing era” began in 1978, which is difficult to argue in the shadow of Dan Marino and Ben Roethlisberger. I’ve also read an even more ludicrous suggestion that Flacco had the better season of the two, simply because his team made it to their Conference Championship Game…apparently some people see only one player on the field at a time, while most others see twenty two.
But besides that point, the reality is that both Flacco and Ryan had good rookie seasons. Because of this, fans of both franchises are breathing a sigh of relief in belief that they’ve finally solved their quarterback position. In Atlanta, erasing the stain that was Michael Vick was a true achievement for Ryan. Flacco’s version was similar, though Kyle Boller left a different kind of taste in fans’ mouths.
The excitement in Atlanta and Baltimore comes not simply from the two quarterbacks having a solid season, but also from the expectation that they will improve from their rookie campaign. The question is, just how much should we expect them to improve? Many seem to believe both will get better this season. A few suggest the possibility of a sophomore slump (particularly in Baltimore, and especially when Derrick Mason was seemingly retired). How likely is all that to happen?
I went to the books to look at historic trends for QBs that had mediocre to exceptional rookie seasons, and their trends in future years. But first I had to define which QBs would fit the criteria.
I decided to stick to the “modern era” of passing. In 1978, the NFL passed the rule that defensive backs could not come in contact with receivers five yards beyond the line of scrimmage. This ushered in a new era of passers, and quarterback (and receiver) play has for the most part never been the same since. I also decided in a somewhat arbitrary cut to say a QB rating of 70 or better their rookie season would be defined as “mediocre or better.” This isn’t a perfect methodology; it for instance includes Tim Couch, but Rick Mirer is left on the outside looking in. But for the most part it serves as a reasonable criterion for a cut. Finally, I didn’t want to include someone who made a nice splash in a few blow-outs or for two weeks in injury duty, so I set another somewhat arbitrary cut that the rookie QB needed at least 200 attempts to qualify.
This gave me a nice list of thirteen quarterbacks in my sample. Chronologically they are Jim McMahon, Dan Marino, Warren Moon, Jim Kelly, Jeff George, Tony Banks, Jake Plummer, Peyton Manning, Charlie Batch, Tim Couch, Jeff Garcia, Byron Leftwich and Ben Roethlisberger. Taking the combination of their per-game stats, extending them over a full 16 game season, and then looking at the median and average performances of the group, we see the median give a QB rating of 80.7, and a 78.5 average rating. Both are fairly close to Flacco’s 80.2 rating on the year, though Matt Ryan had a far more impressive 87.7 rating.
From there I looked at the median, average and range of per game (NOT per start) performance for each QB’s rookie and sophomore seasons. I then calculated the percentage improvement of each group’s rookie to sophomore statistics, and applied those percentages to Ryan’s and Flacco’s 2008 stats. Matt Ryan Comp Att Comp % YD YPA TD INT By Median 322 495 0.65 3845 7.8 15 12 By Range Max 382 569 0.67 5816 10.2 43 17 Min 211 340 0.62 2855 8.4 9 8 By Average 302 473 0.64 3854 8.1 18 10 Joe Flacco Comp Att Comp % YD YPA TD INT By Median 312 489 0.64 3311 6.8 13 13 By Range Max 370 561 0.66 5008 8.9 37 19 Min 205 335 0.61 2459 7.3 8 9 By Average 293 466 0.63 3318 7.1 16 11
By median – due to small sample size – is likely the better measure here. The ranges are calculated based on the rookie median, not average. Also, removing the high and/or low performers from the sample yields little difference in the results.
Some interesting trends in this data:
Completion Percentage – Nine of the thirteen players on the list saw an increase in completion percentage from Y1 to Y2.
Touchdowns and Interceptions – Only seven QBs had their TDs per game and TD:INT ratio improve their sophomore season. This partially explains the difference between the average and median TD:INT projections. We could call it the “Marino/Manning/Garcia” effect. Marino saw a massive increase in his TD production. Manning and Garcia a massive increase in their TD:INT ratio.
Yardage – Ten of the thirteen saw their per-game yardage totals increase. This could easily be attributed to the fact that nine saw their per game attempts go up.
Overall – One last thing worth noting. Only Warren Moon saw a decline in all three categories (yards per game, completion percentage and TD:INT ratio), and no others saw a decline in both completion percent and TD:INT ratio.
In this analysis, it’s probably less important to look at the actual numbers, and more important to look at the trending of the numbers. Their TD:INT numbers are likely to be similar to where they were before, but their yardage will probably improve as they get more reps. Generally it should be expected that they play better, but not necessarily a dramatic improvement.
My own personal belief is that I don’t think either is more likely than the other to either improve or decline. There are strong arguments for both going either way. Matt Ryan had a better season, so there’s less room to improve than decline. Additionally, Atlanta’s offensive line played significantly better than in ’07, and better than expected at the on-set of the ’08 season. They are young and could continue to improve, or they could regress to the mean and set Ryan back with them. Should Michael Turner suffer the “Curse of 370” it could negatively impact Ryan’s ability to build on his rookie year. And of course, Ryan could simply improve with a year of experience under his belt, and the addition of ageless, perennial Pro Bowler Tony Gonzalez as an additional receiving option.
The arguments for Flacco are similar. His offensive line is [mostly] young, and will have two or possibly three new starters this season. It could improve or decline and neither would be surprising. Cam Cameron will almost certainly open the offensive playbook up. But the Ravens also still lack the basic weapons to truly give Flacco solid support. Derrick Mason is in his mid-thirties and suffered a serious shoulder injury last season. If he goes down to injury, the Ravens receiving options are horrendous (see my statistical break-down of their odds in light of Mason’s retirement here). But Flacco has plenty of room to improve upon last season, and his stats in his first five weeks vs. the last eleven weeks are night and day. With one TD to seven INTs his first five games, through his final eleven he threw thirteen TDs to only five INTs, and he posted a gaudy 90.2 QB rating his final eleven games.
Either way, both are more likely to improve than they are to decline. And to fans of two franchises that have suffered through frustrations at the QB position for years, these two are a breath of fresh air.
Saturday, August 8, 2009
Rites Of Summer
“Then another linebacker dropped out, and I said, ‘Carl, I’ve been through the linebacker drills, I’ve put them through defensive-back drills,’ and he says, ‘No, I want more.’ Finally, the other linebackers couldn’t take anymore. It was a hot day. I said, ‘Carl, I don’t have any more drills.’ He said, ‘OK.’ “And Derrick looked at me and grinned, and said, ‘Coach, are you done? Don’t you have any more?’ “I kind of chuckled, because I know it was making Carl very mad because he was trying to make him get so tired. Everyone else around him was sick, they couldn’t breathe, and Derrick kept on going, and he wanted more.”
when thee I think upon;
All Grief and Sorrow takes the flight,
and speedily is gone;
The bright resemblance of thy Face,
so fills this, Heart of mine;
That Force nor Fate can me displease,
for Old long syne.
James Watson
Today marks the beginning of the new NFL year. I could see how some might argue for its beginning after the Pro Bowl, or at the beginning of training camp but I don't see it that way. Tomorrow at 8pm the Buffalo Bills will play in Nashville against the Titans and this will be the first live NFL football of the 2009 year. The months after the Pro Bowl is the long autumn after harvest, and if draft day is Christmas then certainly we can see how the return to the playing field is New Years Day. But first comes the day of Auld Lang Syne, the night of remembrance.
James discussed how the NFL pays respect to its greatest players as it kicks off each season with the Hall of Fame ceremony. This year's class is distinguished, but no more distinguished than most, less than some. Ralph Wilson is a giant, every bit as important to the growth of the NFL as Lamar Hunt or Wellington Mara and it is good to see him enshrined while he is still living. With the possible exception of Wilson though, I think the most interesting induction is that of Derrick Thomas.
When I first heard about Thomas' election to the Hall, I immediately began to consider if he really had a Hall of Fame-worthy career, or if his election had more to do with his sudden death and his charitable work. There were calls in the Chief community for Thomas' election by acclamation after his death, following the precedent after Roberto Clemente's death. While there are parallels between Clemente and Thomas, ultimately they fail, right down to the way each died; Clemente delivering aid to earthquake victims, Thomas driving recklessly and flipping his SUV. The latter isn't a judgment of Thomas, it's just what is.
Even so, Thomas was a remarkable humanitarian in his own right. In his third NFL season he founded (along with Neil Smith) the Third and Long Foundation, devoted to tackling illiteracy in the inner city. Since its inception 60 NFL players have devoted time and resources to its success. Thomas was the NFL Man of the Year in 1993. He won the Byron "Whizzer" White Humanitarian Award in 1995. George Bush designated him one of the country's 1000 Points of Light.
I think we all occasionally wonder what the Hall of Fame is. There are obvious Hall of Famers like Walter Payon and Jerry Rice and Johnny Unitas. There are other players who - while maybe not all-time greats - defined the game for their generation. Finally there are guys like Bob Hayes who redefined the way we think of a position, even if no one really thinks that player is a member of the all-time elite.
In a way, Thomas was none of those things, and in another he embodied all of those things. He wasn't the best defensive player of his generation. Most would probably say 'Reggie White', if asked. His Hall of Fame classmates Bruce Smith and Rod Woodson were probably better. Deion Sanders was too. Darrell Green remained an elite defender for much of Thomas' career. Mike Singletary and then Junior Seau and finally Ray Lewis were all better linebackers. Even guys like John Randle trumped Thomas who was only names All Pro twice (Randle six times). At best you could argue that Thomas was the best rush linebacker in the NFL, but even then, as good as he was at attacking the quarterback, he was still a poor run defender for his entire career.
Thomas also couldn't have been said to redefine his position. Lawrence Taylor did it first, and did it better, being named first team All Pro eight times. In a sense Thomas was nothing but the best defensive player on the best defensive team; a guy limited to rushing the quarterback. But oh, what a rusher. Marty Schottenheimer said of Thomas "Derrick weighed 250-255 and we designed what we did to try to put him in a position to do what he did best, that was to go after the quarterback. You don't see many quarterbacks throwing effectively when they're looking over their back shoulder and wondering, 'Who's that guy coming at me? Any time you can get a player, on offense or defense, who must become the focal point of the opponent, those kind of players are rare, he had to be accounted for on every play or he would beat you."
Thomas had 126 quarterback sacks and 448 pressures in an 11 year career covering 169 games. In other words Thomas made series or game changing plays about three and a half times per game. Neil Smith was drafted a year before Thomas and was already being labeled a bust until Thomas began to pull the attention of the offenses to him, in part giving Smith the freedom to dominate the defensive line, leading to several pro bowls and an All Pro season in 1993. Due to their lack of post-season success, the record of the Chiefs in the 1990s is often overlooked. They finished the decade with the third most wins of any franchise, behind only the 49ers and Bills while ahead of perennial winners Dallas, Denver, and Green Bay.
But even with his on-field success and off-field charity, Thomas led a volatile life, right up to the accident that caused his death. Joe Posnanski of the Kansas City Star wrote "Whenever any of us write or say something good about Thomas — such as this weekend when we celebrate his remarkable football career — we are inundated with angry e-mails and phone calls and rebukes from those who want to yell about the irresponsible way he fathered seven children with five different women. Whenever we talk about all the good he did — and he did a lot of good; he was always generous with his time and he was chosen the NFL Man of the Year in 1993 — we are furiously reminded of his bad habits and wild nights and marathon parties." Even following his death, a protracted and public lawsuit by his survivors against General Motors served little but to keep the circumstances of his death in the public eye.
So what was Thomas? He was an enigma and a great talent, and limited. He had a huge heart and bad judgment and a fierce desire to be bigger than anyone ever could be. He was about as one-dimensional as a three-down player could be, but he was so great at that dimension that dragging him off the field was out of the question. He wasn't the greatest. He wasn't among the greatest in football history, he wasn't among the greatest at his position. But when I think of the qualities that the very greatest have, I see those same qualities in Derrick Thomas. Hall of Famer? Yeah ... yeah.
Derrick worked out with about three other linebackers, we put them through a bunch of drills, and Derrick just kept going and going. I looked back, and I said, ‘That’s about enough,’ and Carl says, ‘No, I want to see more.’ So we kept doing more. And all of a sudden another linebacker dropped out and was about dead, and I looked back at Carl, and he said, ‘More.’
~
My wife and I both have said he's probably the son we've never had. He's a guy who lived his life with a passion, everything he did. I really think that with all the things that have taken place today [in the NFL] and all the publicity of the arrests and everything else that took place, this is a good person.
-Bill Cowher
Thursday, August 6, 2009
An Adequate Offense
I am an ardent believer in Joe Flacco. A couple weeks ago I engaged in a lengthy back and forth banter on a Ravens discussion forum about predictions for Flacco's stats for this upcoming season. I basically went with: 3200-3400 yds with 22-24 TDs and 13-14 INTs
Last season, those numbers would have ranked: 13th-17th in yards
8th-10th in TD passes (12th if you say 21 TD passes)
I don't want to get into whether that's a reasonable or likely prediction for a 2nd-yr QB. I used a number of assumptions, including the major one that the level of performance we saw from Joe Cool over his last 11 regular season games last year was a true, repeatable performance. But mostly I went with my gut, not with any "science". But in the process I wondered: what does a decent, just-barely-in-the-top-10 passing offense look like? Who catches the passes, and what do their stats look like?
What kind of production do the wide receivers, backs and tight ends typically get, when a quarterback posts that kind of season?
I took stats from NFL.com, of the top 12 leading passers by yardage and TD passes over the last 10 years. Here's how they average out:Rank Yards TDs 1 4575.5 36.6 2 4316.8 32.2 3 4174.6 28.7 4 4010.0 26.9 5 3933.4 26.3 6 3856.2 25.2 7 3773.3 24.4 8 3657.2 23.5 9 3575.9 22.7 10 3448.6 21.3 11 3368.6 20.3 12 3320.7 19.2
This table says that, from 1999-2008 the average league-leader in passing yards threw for 4,576 yards; and the average leader in TD passes threw 37. The average 10th-placed passer by yardage threw for 3449 yards; 10th-place by TDs had 21 passing TDs. If you throw for 3321 yards with 19 TDs, that would on average place you 12th in the league in both categories, over the last 10 years.
Excel's TREND function shows an upward trend of about 23 yards per QB per year over the time period: so next year's prediction by TREND is about a hundred yards higher at each position than this average shows. Close enough.
Returning to Flacco for a moment, you'll notice that my yardage and TD predictions don't quite jibe with each other. Either I was too conservative in the yardage prediction, or too optimistic with the TD prediction (guess which one is most likely). If Joe were to pass for around 3200-3400 yards, then a more likely TD prediction for him would be something like 17-21. If he were to pass for 22-24 TDs, then it seems that might be good for 3600-3800 yards. So my prediction doesn't look too great: basically I have him in the top 10 in the league in the passing stats. Sure I think Joe is good; very good. But it's also true that Drew Brees is good, and Philip Rivers is good, and Jay Cutler and Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning and Kurt Warner and Donovan McNabb and Tony Romo and Super Bowl champ Ben Roethlisbugger. That guy Brady in Massachusetts is pretty decent.
By the way, 1999 seems to represent a natural cut-off in the passing data.
Maybe it's just an illusion, something that pops up in messy data. But just by eyeball it seems like something changed btw 98 and 99.
Anyway.
I was curious about the "decent" passing offense, or the decent-to-good offense. I decided that meant the QBs ranked #9 thru #12: almost making the top 10, or just barely in it. From the chart above, over the last 10 years that would be a range of QB yardage numbers between 3320 yards and 3575 yards; and from 19 to 23 TDs.
You may pause for a moment to observe how pathetically funny this is. A Ravens fun wonders what a decent offense would look like. And he has to go to the statistical record, because he's never seen one!
Study
PFR has data up thru 2007. I took QB seasons that were narrowly "similar" to that range of stats above: 3300-3600 yards, with 19-23 TDs. I did not adjust for INTs, or for passer rating; I just took the raw production totals. How often does a QB put up numbers like that?
There were 45 such seasons in the PFR data, starting with Johnny Unitas in 1963 and Joe Namath in 1966. That was a little farther back than I wanted to go, so I stuck with the past 20 years (actually 21). That gave me 29 such QB-seasons.
(You might have expected more, since I was going with the #9-10-11-12 guys in yardage and TDs each season. Shouldn't there have been 80 such seasons? 4 x 20? Remember that I required that BOTH the yardage and TDs fit into a narrow range. Very often a guy will be the #10 yardage passer, but a couple spots higher or lower in TDs: since not both stats are in the range, a season like that would be excluded from my list.)
Here are the 29 QB-seasons from 1988-2008:Phil Simms 1988 Brett Favre 1993 Steve McNair 2001 Neil Lomax 1988 Jeff Hostetler 1994 Steve McNair 2002 Randall Cunningham 1989 Scott Mitchell 1997 Jeff Garcia 2002 Dave Krieg 1989 Dan Marino 1998 Matt Hasselbeck 2004 Steve Deberg 1990 Trent Green 1998 Kerry Collins 2004 Dan Marino 1990 Jon Kitna 1999 Philip Rivers 2006 Jim Kelly 1992 Elvis Grbac 1999 Eli Manning 2007 Troy Aikman 1992 Kurt Warner 2000 Jay Cutler 2007 Jim Everett 1992 Donovan McNabb 2000 Donovan McNabb 2007 Warren Moon 1993 Mark Brunell 2001
The average QB line for this group was:
287 of 488 (59%) for 3399.3 yds with 21.3 TDs and 14.5 INTs, 7.0 ypa , passer rating 82.3.
Max 3563 yards, 23 TDs.
Min 3303 yards, 19 TDs.
Could not really ask for seasons more similar to my original prediction for Joe: at the high end for yards, one off at the low end for TDs. (I predicted a higher ypa for Joe, so I had a higher QB rating.)
So then I looked at the performances of the #1 WR (by yardage) on those teams, and the #2 and #3 receiver; also the top RB (by receiving yardage) and the top TE (by receiving yardage). Note that the top RB by receiving yardage is not necessarily the team's top RB. In fact it's usually not: it's the 3rd-down back or the FB.
• I excluded the 2000 Rams of Kurt Warner from the study. Warner put up his stats in 10 or 11 games; Trent Green started the rest of the way, and the composite QB line for the season was like 5500 yds (!) with 37 TDs. Not at all comparable to the kinds of QB seasons I was looking for. Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce combined for 3000 yds all by themselves; Marshall Faulk and Az Hakim added quite a bit more.
• I also excluded the 1988 Cards of Neil Lomax. Lomax played 14 games, so you'd think the data would be "good enough": but the top 5 receivers accounted for 102% of Lomax's yards and 105% of the TDs. Cliff Stoudt threw for ~750 yards with 6 TDs that year: the offense had almost 4200 yards passing with 26 TDs. The season is a little too good to fit in with the others.
• The 1993 Titans of Warren Moon played the run-&-shoot; no TE got a single receiving yard, as far as I can tell. (Did they even have a TE on the roster?) They did complete one 13-yd pass to an offensive lineman. For purposes of the study, I pretended their #4 WR (Curtis Duncan) was the TE.
Here is what I wanted to know: when a QB has a statistical line like that, what kind of production does the team get from the WR corps, and the backs & TEs? What do the #1 receiver, #2 receiver et al, all post in a decent-to-good season like this?
Results
Here are the average receiving yards and TDs for the 5 positions I looked at on those 27 teams:Position Yards TDs #1WR 1017.8 6.7 #2WR 649.9 5.0 #3WR 368.6 1.9 #1RB 357.0 1.7 #1TE 459.6 3.1
• Brian Westbrook throws off the RB averages a little. The median RB yardage is 284.
• Likewise Antonio Gates throws off the TE averages: the median TE yardage is 383.
•These 5 players accounted for about 85% of the QB's total production in those seasons: 83.9% of the yardage, 85.1% of the TDs.
So that's the typical decent-to-good passing offense, good for #9 to #12 in the league in yardage and TDs. A thousand-yard receiver with 7 TDs, a #2WR with 650 yds and 5 TDs, a #3WR who kicks in 370 yds and 2 TDs; plus a back with about 300 yds receiving and a couple TD catches (probably the FB or 3rd-down back), and a TE with about 400 yds and 3 receiving TDs.
Looking at the list of teams (data at bottom of post) shows that there are a number of ways to skin the cat on offense. There were some true #1 receivers in the data: Michael Irvin at 1400 yds, Sterling Sharpe (who I think belongs in the Hall of Fame), Tim Brown near his peak, Herman Moore (who probably should also be in the Hall), Jimmy Smith, Derrick Mason when he was making Pro Bowls in Tennessee, Terrell Owens with 1300 yds and 13 TDs with San Francisco, Plaxico in 2007 when he caught 12 TDs, Brandon Marshall.
But there were also some true West Coast dink-and-dunk offenses: McNabb's Eagles, Hasselbeck's Seahawks, possibly the Chiefs with Deberg and later Elvis. And also some offenses built around Hall-of-Fame (or at least Pro Bowl) caliber talent at the backs and TEs: Chargers with Gates and LDT, Chiefs with Tony Gonzalez, Randall's 1989 Eagles with Keith's Jackson & Byars. Brian Westbrook, of course. No one ever talks about this guy, but FB John L. Williams had a 3-yr stretch in the late 80s / early 90s where he was over 650 yds receiving for Chuck Knox's Seahawks, and then 4 more years at 500. A valuable, productive player.
There were only two cases (out of 27) were a #2 WR was over a thousand yards: Scott Mitchell 1997 (Johnnie Morton) and Mark Brunell 2001 (Keenan McCardell). I think in general when your #2 WR puts up a thousand, you have a more productive passing offense than the "adequate" stratum we're looking at here: maybe top 5.
In general I was surprised how little the #3 WR contributed. Several of those totals were below 300 yds, a couple below 200. On the other hand, there was a Pro Bowl caliber TE very often. Not just the obvious guys like Gates & Gonzalez, but Mark Bavaro, Keith Jackson, Ferrell Edmunds, Jay Novacek, Stephen Alexander, Chad Lewis, Frank Wycheck, Shockey. More of these teams had such a player than didn't; many of the guys who never made a Pro Bowl were nevertheless pretty damn productive in the seasons I looked at (Jackie Harris, Jerramy Stevens). The productive pass-catching TE seems to be important.
(It would be nice if Todd Heap could start putting up big numbers again.)
Ravens
My original interest in this was whether this year's Ravens squad had enough firepower for a passer to post stats similar to the #9-10-11-12 passer rankings. Substituting in the appropriate Ravens:study average Ravens career high position yards TDs position yards TDs #1WR 1017.8 6.7 Mason* 1087 5 #2WR 649.9 5 Clayton 939 5 #3WR 368.6 1.9 D Williams 396 2 #1RB 357 1.7 Rice/McGahee 273 0 #1TE 459.6 3.1 Heap 855 7 - total 3550 19 - pctg 83.9% 85.1% - multiplied 4229.9 22.3
This says that if every Raven were to hit their career high, and assuming the normal percentages from above, then Flacco would throw for 4230 yards with 22 TDs. !
I didn't use Mason's career high, which was set when he was much younger, making Pro Bowls in Tennessee; but rather his high with the Ravens. That's the number shown in the table above (2007). Heap's career high (2005) is a pretty aggressive number to use, since he's been to the Pro Bowl twice (could have been three times; but the year he had his career highs, Gates & Gonzalez exploded). His career averages are 538 yards and 4 TDs, which includes some years where he missed extensive time due to injury. If you plug in those for Heap instead of his career high, you get a muliplied total for the QB of 3852 yards with 19 TDs.
A few things would have to break right for this Ravens squad; but I am surprised by how achievable those numbers are. Not that I'm saying it's likely every Raven will set a new career high (though in my heart of hearts I believe that can easily happen, given how limited the Ravens offenses were under Billick). But the Ravens clearly have enough talent at the receivers and backs to be a decent-to-good offense. It really just depends on the QB play.
In particular
Two offenses of particular interest to Ravens fans: the 1998 Redskins of Trent Green, and the 1992 Rams of Jim Everett.
• 1998 Redskins
Cam Cameron had been the QB coach under Norv. This was 2 seasons after these Redskins sent Gus Frerotte to the Pro Bowl, and Cameron was gone, coaching Indiana. Trent Green was in his 5th or 6th season, having attempted only 1 career pass (the year before). They had Terry Allen (700 yds) and Skip Hicks running the ball. Their leading receiver was Michael Westbrook with 736 yds. They had other useful players like Stephen Alexander & Brian Mitchell, plus a few young guys who would later turn into real players (Stephen Davis, James Thrash, Mike Sellers). But this was not an explosive group.
Green went 278 of 509 (55%) for 3441 yds (6.8 ypa) with 23 TDs and 11 INTs (rating 82).
(Also took 49 sacks that year, leading the league. Ouch.)
• 1992 Rams
In Cam Cameron's press conference last year, after Joe got drafted, Jim Everett was one of the QBs Cam specifically mentioned as having developed in the system he was running. Norv had been the WRs/TE coach here, but had left to go to Dallas. Ernie Zampese was still the OC. Jim Everett was in his 7th season, having gone to a Pro Bowl a couple years before (he probably deserved it earlier). They got 1100 yds rushing out of Cleveland Gary, who never came near that number again. The leading receiver was old Henry Ellard, with 727 yds. Flipper Anderson was only 27, but he must have had an injury or something a few yrs before: looks like his speed was gone.
Everett went 281 of 475 (59%) for 3323 yds (7 ypa) with 22 TDs and 18 INTs (rating 80.2).
There are lots of ways to get it done on offense.
People (including Chris!) need to be more optimistic about this year's Ravens team. ;-)
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Data
Below is the underlying data for the QB seasons under discussion.
In the tables, the numbers below the QB's name are his stat line for the year:
comp/att (pct) for yards with TD/INT rating.Phil Simms, 1988 Giants | Randall Cunningham, 1989 Eagles 263/479 (55%) for 3359 with 21/11 r 82.2 | 290/532 (55%) for 3400 with 21/15 r 76 Position Player Yards TDs | Position Player Yards TDs #1WR Lionel Manuel 1029 4 | #1WR Cris Carter 605 11 #2WR Stephen Baker 656 7 | #2WR Ron Johnson 295 1 #3WR Mark Ingram 158 1 | #3WR Mike Quick 228 2 #1RB Maurice Carthon 194 1 | #1RB Keith Byars 721 0 #1TE Mark Bavaro 672 4 | #1TE Keith Jackson 648 3 Dave Krieg, 1989 Seahawks | Steve Deberg, 1990 Chiefs 286/499 (57%) for 3309 with 21/20 r 74.5 | 258/444 (58%) for 3444 with 23/4 r 96.3 Position Player Yards TDs | Position Player Yards TDs #1WR Brian Blades 1063 5 | #1WR Tommy Kane 776 4 #2WR Paul Skansi 488 5 | #2WR Brian Blades 525 3 #3WR Steve Largent 403 3 | #3WR Jeff Chadwick 478 4 #1RB John L. Williams 657 6 | #1RB John L. Williams 699 0 #1TE Robert Tyler 148 0 | #1TE Ron Heller 157 1 Dan Marino 1990 | Jim Kelly 1992 306/531 (58%) for 3563 with 21/11 r 82.9 | 269/462 (58%) for 3457 with 23/19 r 81.1 Position Player Yards TDs | Position Player Yards TDs #1WR Mark Duper 810 5 | #1WR Andre Reed 913 3 #2WR Mark Clayton 406 3 | #2WR James Lofton 786 6 #3WR Tony Martin 388 2 | #3WR Thurman Thomas 554 2 #1RB Troy Stradford 257 0 | #1RB Thurman Thomas 626 3 #1TE Ferrell Edmunds 446 1 | #1TE Pete Metzelaars 298 6 Troy Aikman, 1992 Cowboys | Jim Everett, 1992 Rams 302/473 (64%) for 3445 with 23/14 r 89.6 | 281/475 (59%) for 3323 with 22/18 r 80 Position Player Yards TDs | Position Player Yards TDs #1WR Michael Irvin 1396 7 | #1WR Henry Ellard 727 3 #2WR Alvin Harper 562 4 | #2WR Flipper Anderson 657 7 #3WR Kelvin Martin 359 3 | #3WR Jeff Chadwick 362 3 #1RB Emmitt Smith 335 1 | #1RB Cleveland Gary 293 3 #1TE Jay Novacek 630 6 | #1TE Jim Price 324 2 Warren Moon 1993 | Brett Favre 1993 303/520 (58%) for 3485 with 21/21 r 75 | 318/522 (61%) for 3303 with 19/24 r 72.3 Position Player Yards TDs | Position Player Yards TDs #1WR Webster Slaughter 904 5 | #1WR Sterling Sharpe 1274 11 #2WR Ernest Givins 887 4 | #2WR Mark Clayton 331 3 #3WR Haywood Jeffires 753 6 | #3WR Robert Brooks 180 0 #1RB Gary Brown 240 2 | #1RB Edgar Bennett 457 1 #1TE Curtis Duncan 456 3 | #1TE Jackie Harris 604 4 Jeff Hostetler 1994 | Scott Mitchell 1997 263/455 (58%) for 3334 with 20/16 r 80.9 | 293/509 (58%) for 3484 with 19/14 r 79.9 Player Yards TDs | Position Player Yards TDs #1WR Tim Brown 1309 9 | #1WR Herman Moore 1293 8 #2WR Rocket Ismail 513 5 | #2WR Johnnie Morton 1057 6 #3WR Alexander Wright 294 2 | #3WR Tommie Boyd 142 0 #1RB Harvey Williams 391 3 | #1RB Barry Sanders 305 3 #1TE Andrew Glover 371 2 | #1TE David Sloan 264 0 Dan Marino 1998 | Trent Green, 1998 Redskins 310/537 (58%) for 3497 with 23/15 r 80.2 | 278/509 (55%) for 3441 with 23/11 r 82.1 Position Player Yards TDs | Position Player Yards TDs #1WR OJ McDuffie 1050 7 | #1WR Michael Westbrook 736 6 #2WR Oronde Gadsden 713 7 | #2WR Leslie Shepherd 712 8 #3WR Lamar Thomas 603 5 | #3WR Albert Connell 451 2 #1RB Bernie Parmalee 221 0 | #1RB Stephen Davis 263 2 #1TE Troy Drayton 334 3 | #1TE Stephen Alexander 383 4 Jon Kitna, 1999 Seahawks | Elvis Grbac, 1999 Chiefs 270/495 (55%) for 3346 with 23/16 r 78.1 | 294/499 (59%) for 3389 with 22/15 r 81.7 Position Player Yards TDs | Player Yards TDs #1WR Sean Dawkins 992 7 | #1WR Derrick Alexander 832 2 #2WR Derrick Mayes 829 10 | #2WR Joe Horn 586 6 #3WR Mike Pritchard 375 2 | #3WR Kevin Lockett 426 2 #1RB Ricky Watters 387 2 | #1RB Tony Richardson 141 0 #1TE Christian Fauria 376 0 | #1TE Tony Gonzalez 849 11 Donovan McNabb, 2000 Eagles | Mark Brunell 2001 330/569 (58%) for 3365 with 21/13 r 77.8 | 289/473 (61%) for 3309 with 19/13 r 84 Position Player Yards TDs | Position Player Yards TDs #1WR Charles Johnson 642 7 | #1WR Jimmy Smith 1373 8 #2WR Torrance Small 569 3 | #2WR Keenan McCardell 1110 6 #3WR Todd Pinkston 181 0 | #3WR Sean Dawkins 234 0 #1RB Darnell Autry 275 1 | #1RB Elvis Joseph 183 2 #1TE Chad Lewis 735 3 | #1TE Kyle Brady 386 2 Steve McNair, 2001 Titans | Steve McNair, 2002 Titans 264/431 (61%) for 3350 with 21/12 r 89.9 | 301/492 (61%) for 3387 with 22/15 r 83.8 Position Player Yards TDs | Position Player Yards TDs #1WR Derrick Mason 1128 9 | #1WR Derrick Mason 1012 5 #2WR Kevin Dyson 825 7 | #2WR Drew Bennett 478 2 #3WR Drew Bennett 329 1 | #3WR Kevin Dyson 460 4 #1RB Eddie George 279 0 | #1RB Eddie George 255 2 #1TE Frank Wycheck 672 4 | #1TE Frank Wycheck 346 2 Jeff Garcia, 2002 Niners | Matt Hasselbeck, 2004 Seahawks 328/528 (62%) for 3344 with 21/10 r 85.5 | 279/474 (59%) for 3382 with 22/15 r 83.3 Position Player Yards TDs | Position Player Yards TDs #1WR Terrell Owens 1300 13 | #1WR Darrell Jackson 1199 7 #2WR Tai Streets 756 5 | #2WR Bobby Engram 499 2 #3WR J.J. Stokes 332 1 | #3WR Koren Robinson 495 2 #1RB Garrison Hearst 317 1 | #1RB Shaun Alexander 170 4 #1TE Eric Johnson 321 0 | #1TE Jerramy Stevens 349 3 Kerry Collins 2004 | Philip Rivers, 2006 Chargers 289/513 (56%) for 3495 with 21/20 r 74.5 | 284/460 (62%) for 3388 with 22/9 r 92.2 Position Player Yards TDs | Position Player Yards TDs #1WR Jerry Porter 998 9 | #1WR Eric Parker 659 0 #2WR Ronald Curry 679 6 | #2WR Vincent Jackson 453 6 #3WR Doug Gabriel 551 2 | #3WR Keenan McCardell 437 0 #1RB Amos Zereoue 284 0 | #1RB LaDainian Tomlinson 508 3 #1TE Doug Jolley 313 2 | #1TE Antonio Gates 924 9 Eli Manning, 2007 Giants | Jay Cutler 2007 297/529 (56%) for 3336 with 23/20 r 73.8 | 297/467 (64%) for 3497 with 20/14 r 88.4 Position Player Yards TDs | Position Player Yards TDs #1WR Plaxico Burress 1025 12 | #1WR Brandon Marshall 1325 7 #2WR Amani Toomer 760 3 | #2WR Brandon Stokley 635 5 #3WR Sinorice Moss 225 0 | #3WR Javon Walker 287 0 #1RB Derrick Ward 179 1 | #1RB Selvin Young 231 0 #1TE Jeremy Shockey 619 3 | #1TE Tony Scheffler 549 5 Donovan McNabb 2007 | 291/473 (62%) for 3324 with 19/7 r 90.3 | Position Player Yards TDs | #1WR Kevin Curtis 1110 6 | #2WR Reggie Brown 780 4 | #3WR Jason Avant 267 2 | #1RB Brian Westbrook 771 5 | #1TE LJ Smith 236 1 |
Bears Receiving Corps - Impacts of Cutler
This article by SI’s Don Banks got me thinking. What’s a good season for Jay Cutler this year? What would make people in Chicago say, “We got a good deal?” There’s little doubt in my mind that Cutler – who has a 63% completion rate for about 8,000 yards and 45 TDs vs. 32 INTs the last two seasons – will not hit those numbers again this year. But what would be good for him?
If Chicago’s going to pass the ball more … a LOT more, according to this article … then how can we define success? My personal feel would be around 3,500 yards, 20 TDs and 14 INTs – that’s basically his ’07 season – would be a good starting spot.
So the question is, who’s the beneficiary of those 500 yards and 2 TDs over what Orton did last year? With no receivers with more than 665 yards last season, there’s got to be someone that can pick up, right? Yeah, this is sort of turning into a fantasy football post…
I think the primary beneficiary almost has to be Greg Olsen. He’s coming into his 3rd year, and (according to the above article) is developing quite a rapport with Cutler. More particularly, he’s their best receiver. Let’s call it a move from 574 yards to 800 yards. 5 TDs is still good, but I could see 6 or 7.
Matt Forte is probably another one, though it’s tough for me to see a RB improving on the 63 catches (top on the team) and 477 yards. He was third in receiving yards for RBs last year. Still, he could get more shots at it. Let’s bump him up to 550ish.
That’s about 300 of the yards. Which gives another 200 to spread among the WRs. Hester probably gets a majority of those unless you think someone from that crappy group is suddenly going to go insane. Still, that puts Hester around 850 yards for the year. Yawn…
The Bears passing game should be pretty interesting to watch next year. It’s possible Cutler does a good bit better than this. It’s quite possible he actually comes closer to 4,000 yards on the season. Last year he had 4,500 yards and 25 TDs. So 3,750 yards and 22 TDs shouldn’t at all be shocking. Suddenly the Bears would have some viable FFL options in the passing game. And if he hits 4,000 yards, there will definitely be at least two.
No guesses on what he’ll actually do. But I do think it’s safe to bet the passing game will be better this year than last by a somewhat significant margin. Olsen could have a big year.
Tuesday, August 4, 2009
Armpits Hanging From Trees
I was over at a good friend's house this afternoon. Her one year old is just learning to walk. She's getting pretty good at walking (the one year old, my friend is already an accomplished walker) but running still eludes her, and the many battle wounds on her cheeks and forehead are testament to her perserverence. When I later got home I flipped on the intertubes and saw that Bronco linebacker Nick Greisen got knocked out for the year with some kind of knee issue. I suspect that running was involved.
I'm not particularly opposed to NFLers running about. I've read that running is quite healthy, in general. While injuries in the NFL happen to be well correlated to running, they are only well correlated in the sense that football games are well correlated to Sundays. Obviously, injuries are more about the collisions and the kicking and the biting with the metal teeth and the hurting and shoving. A predictable outcome when ~ 2500 two hundred and fifty pound men crash into one another for hours and days at a time.
but this isn't so much about that
Less than a week into official for real NFL practice, for most teams out of pads, there have already been a few injuries that will significantly impact their respective teams' fortunes. Let's take a look.
Greisen
Okay, the Broncos probably won't miss Greisen all that much but I needed an excuse to link his website which - much like Greisen's NFL career - hasn't been updated in three years. Greisen probably couldn't have been counted on to contribute much to the Broncos this year anyway, but his loss does cut into their depth - already dangerously thin due to the scorched earth policies of Xander and McDaniel. The Broncos already brought in Braxton Kelley as a replacement. SI describes Kelley as "undersized and very slow shedding blocks ... marginal in coverage" so it sounds like Denver will be just fine.
Tarvaris Jackson
I know, I know. He's just dinged up a little. I just think it's funny that so many of the Viking faithful are knitting nooses already. The downside to this injury is that it isn't serious enough to prevent Jackson from returning in time to start under center. packerfan and bearfan titter in their sleeves.
Stephon Heyer, Randy Thomas, Mike Williams
These three players constitute 40% of the Redskin starting offensive line, with the runner up in reserve. Washington released Jon Jansen and gave Heyer Jansen's spot at RT, Williams is also competing there. Thomas is penciled in at RG. None of these injuries appear to be season threatening, but they are debilitating and portend further injuries as the season progresses. Futhermore this seriously limits Zorn's ability to build line continuity, a lacking that prevented any complex pass-blocking schemes in '08. Washington is my pick to bottom out. This is a terribly old, terribly thin team that has suffered a lot of bad personnel decisions over the last few years, along with the tragedy to Sean Taylor. In 2008 they were the second oldest team in the NFL and were unusually healthy for a team that old, losing 13 starts to injuries by their offensive players. Their offensive line appears particularly vulnerable. They only have two younger players who figure to contribute meaningfully, Heyer at 26 and 2008 third rounder Chad Rinehart at 24 (already being called a bust). With Heyer, their other starters appear to be Samuels (32), Dockery (29), Rabach (32) and Thomas (33). Behind them is a wasteland of undrafted free agents and veterans who have kicked around the league. Last year Washington was awful in the games that Samuel missed with injury and he - along with several others - are at an age where injury is a part of their season. This team is one major or a few minor injuries away from disaster and they are already getting nicked up.
Adam Terry
Starting to get into the more significant injuries. Terry was competing with Oher for the starting RT gig in Baltimore before getting IR'd today with microfracture. Oher is going to have to grow up in a hurry now. If he struggles there really is no one in reserve to spell him, even for a few series, unless Baltimore tracks down a former Bengal for the second straight year. The demand for Levi Jones will probably increase as training camps continue and injuries mount. Chris Chester and Oniel Cousins are now the only people standing between the Ravens and a paper-thin offensive line.
Stewart Bradley
This is a big one. Bradley is overrated by Eagle fans (what's new?) but he is still an effective MLB in Philadelphia's 4-3. The real problem is that the Eagles really don't have a replacement for him on the roster. 6th rounder Joe Mays inherits his spot but it is unlikely that Mays can be the same type of playmaker as Bradley, who accounted for 151 tackles last year. Perhaps more importantly, Bradley was the primary signal caller for the defense that also lost veteran leader Brian Dawkins.
~
I have no feel whether there have been an unusual number of injuries so early in camp. There have been other, more minor injuries to Brandon Marshall, Ellis Hobbs, Beanie Wells. Braylon Edwards has been out for a week but so far no word on the extent of his injury. Albert Haynesworth missed time to get some needlepoint done on his knees. It will be interesting to see if this is a trend for a bad summer, or just an unusual couple of days.
Fantasy Football - Sleeper Picks
Tis the season of joy and wonder! It’s the most, wonderful time…of the year! All the little boys and girls develop their lists of what they want for the coming football season. “I’ve gotta use my first two picks on a running back!” “I’m not taking a QB till way late!” That’s right folks, fantasy football is back.
Rather than divulge my entire strategy for who I like and hate where and when (since I’m in a league with two-thirds of this blog’s co-authors), I’ll instead just focus on one piece of that puzzle. It’s the piece I find most frustrating, and simultaneously the most exciting. It’s trying to figure out who’s going to come out of nowhere to have a big season. Predicting the Eddie Royals and the Matt Cassels of the world are no easy task.
Which, of course, is why I’m taking on the challenge. Something to think about here, though. This isn’t the same old same old list of sleeper picks. You know “those” picks, right? The ones that are in every fantasy football magazine as a sleeper? I’m not going to tell you about Carson Palmer and Derrick Ward and Anthony Gonzalez. The only guys those are sleepers to are the ones that walk into draft day with a printed pre-ranked list they haven’t looked at yet from some website they couldn’t name if you offered to pay their entry fee.
And you don’t need sleepers to beat those players, anyway.
This list is a handful of players you may or may not have heard of, but consists almost entirely of guys that I’m not seeing in anyone’s fantasy rankings. These aren’t guys you want to target in the 7th or 8th round to make sure you get them early…they’re guys you want to target in the round before you get a kicker to make sure no one picks them up off waivers after week one. They’re ultra-high risk, but potentially very high reward. They’re guys you can definitely consider in keeper leagues, particularly ones that reward you for keeping players drafted later.
Expect people to look at you funny if you draft them. But by the end of the season, if they don’t pan out, no one will remember. And if they do, you’ll make sure no one forgets.
Quarterback
Chad Henne, Miami
Drafted in the 2nd round last year, Henne is viewed as the long term solution to the QB position in Miami. There’s a reason he wasn’t a high first round pick, but largely he has the tools to succeed if given the chance. Last year, surrounded by terrible receivers, Chad Pennington scored in the top 15 QBs in most formats, and was #11 in my format that favors yards heavily. Pennington is also in his 30s and has had constant injury issues.
Note one particular trend: For his career, whenever Pennington threw 350+ times in a season, he never reached 300 attempts the following season. If Henne can play, and Pennington goes down – both reasonable possibilities – Henne could be in for a break-out season.
Running Back
A brief note on RBs: This is tough to find any “deep” sleepers, since many people know the names of backups. Top backups go to handicap guys frequently higher than they should go, since it’s so important to be covered at this position. These guys may need to be targeted earlier than I indicated above.
Justin Fargas, Oakland
Fargas has put together two mediocre seasons in Oakland, splitting carries. But most impressive has been his 4.2 YPC in those years. Now, Al Davis didn’t command his minions to draft the hallowed Darren McFadden and pay him $26MM guaranteed to ride the pine, and new coach Tom Cable is offering his best lip-service at noting how he’d love nothing more than to get McFadden more involved.
However, the rumblings I’m reading coming from Raiders camp and McFadden’s performance last season are that he’s a lot like Reggie Bush. Good outside the tackles, but not inside. On top of that, he struggled with injuries last year. Davis is fickle, and if McFadden isn’t performing, and Fargas is, it wouldn’t shock me to see Cable go with what works and start getting Fargas – who runs well between the tackles – more carries; particularly at the goal line.
LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia
Sitting in waiting behind Brian Westbrook, perennial super-stud? Well, that very specifically depends on how long Westbrook is a super-stud for, doesn’t it?
Westbrook has always been dinged up, and yet fantasy owners could rely on him to start 90% of the time. He has consistently been a top 5 scoring FFL back. He’s one of the best pass-catching backs in the league, and in many PPR leagues has been the top overall pick for many the past few years.
But Westbrook is completely off my board this year. He hits the magic age – 30 – in less than a month. And while he only averages ~230 carries, he’s catching another 70, plus getting touches in the playoffs. In the past four years, he’s touched the ball an average of 325 times per season. It’s a lot of touches, and even if his performance doesn’t start sliding or he stays healthy for 14+ games again this year, it’s a decent bet that the Eagles start reducing his carries both to give the rookie playing time, as well as keep Westbrook fresh for the playoffs. McCoy should be a solid runner on a great offense, and if Westbrook really falls off a cliff – not like that’s never happened before *cough* Tomlinson *cough cough* - McCoy could have some very strong numbers.
Wide Receivers
Demetrius Williams, Baltimore
I might get some homer cat-calls here. But I’m going on a limb with him anyway. Here’s a guy that’s had a lot of talent on the practice field, but has had a lot of issues translating it to performance on game-day.
But there are some reasons for that. First, we all know how awesome the Ravens offense has been, right? This can be a limiting factor for any number three receiver. Second, he’s struggled with injuries the past two years. Reports have attributed this to his long, lanky frame. This season, the Ravens offense could improve greatly as Cam expands the play-book and Flacco improves with a year under his belt; and “DWill” has added 30-40 pounds of muscle to his frame (thanks to a heavy weight-lifting regimen) in an attempt to avoid injuries.
More particular than that, he compliments Derrick Mason better as a down-field threat to Mason’s possession receiver status. Add on that we’ve pretty much already seen what we’re going to see out of Clayton, who really should be in the #3 slot; DWill has looked very good in camp so far; and Clayton is struggling with injuries, and it adds up to a shot for DWill to steal Clayton’s starter status, and start piling up some fantasy points. 800 yards and 5 TDs could be reasonable and make him a solid backup. But if he’s really been fooling us all and lives up to the potential we’ve seen from him, he could be worth cracking the starting lineup as a #3 or even #2 FFL receiver.
Domenik Hixon, New York Giants
Some quick and dirty stats for you. Up through week 11, with Plaxico still playing, Hixon averaged 1.5 rec, 24.5 yards and 0.1 TDs per game. From week 12 on after Plax left, he averaged 4.7 rec, 58.5 yards and 0.2 TDs per game. Those numbers over a full season translate to 75 rec, 936 yards and 3 TDs.
Not dominant, but remember that this is a young guy, still with room to develop. The fact that the Giants drafted two receivers hurts his FFL value. But after playing so well last year, he’s starting camp as a starting receiver, and could easily retain that job. While I personally think Eli isn’t a great QB without Plaxico, I also believe that they throw the ball a good bit, and whoever their starting receivers are will get catches.
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So there it is. Five guys to keep an eye on, watch through camp, and think about in those final rounds of drafting. Good luck!
Monday, August 3, 2009
Paying Respect
I love how the NFL kicks off their year with the Hall of Fame induction. It's a great way to start a new season--paying respect to the players, coaches, and owners who came before to pave the way, and to remind everyone of the league's history and roots.
This year is another phenomenal class:
| Bob Hayes | WR for the Cowboys, Niners |
| Randall McDaniel | OG for the Vikings, Bucs |
| Bruce Smith | DE for the Bills, Redskins |
| Derrick Thomas | LB for the Chiefs |
| Ralph Wilson Jr. | Owner of the Bills and co-founder of the AFL |
| Rod Woodson | CB/S for the Steelers, Niners, Ravens, and Raiders |
As the resident Viking fan/apologist/critic, I'm thrilled to see McDaniel make the Hall. It almost excuses the voters for not making him a first-ballot inductee last year. But he's in, and he deserves it--he helped define the position for a decade and was synonymous with the Vikings throughout his tenure with the Purple.
The Minneapolis StarTribune ran a great article on him this past Sunday. Unfortunately, I can't link it here because it is one of the articles in the Strib's new "special offline content only for paper subscribers" business strategy. It's a great read, but I suspect many of the same stories will come out during the induction speech this weekend, so I won't dwell on the details of what a great athlete he was as a kid.
What impresses me a ton, though, is how he has transitioned out of football into "real life" as seamlessly as any player I've ever seen. He moved straight from the NFL into teaching elementary school. Power to him--if I had several million dollars in the bank from my career, that's about the last thing I'd want to do.
But not only does he do it, but he loves it and is great at it. The Strib article had a great story from when he was in college and was already helping out at local schools near Arizona State. He used to go into classrooms to read to them. The feedback he got from the kids? "Reading is for women and sissies." At least that's what he heard until he started reading to them--having a starting player from the local college football team turned some attitudes around.
I'm thrilled to see him get recognized for his on-field accomplishments, but his off-field accomplishments are the even bigger story here. Not just because of his involvement in the community, but for showing other players how to adapt to life outside the stadium. Read more...
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