The Tipping Point

Listening to Czabe Monday after the draft, he had Don Banks on. They discussed the lunacy of the Stafford deal, and were calling it the tipping point. This being the one contract that will essentially force everyone's hand in getting these contracts in line.

It's not a bad point. Take a look at the contracts of the #1 overall pick for the last ten years.

Name	# Yrs	Guar $ / Yr	Tot $ / yr
Matt Stafford	6	$7.0	$12.0
Jake Long	5	$6.0	$11.4
JaMarcus Russell	6	$5.3	$10.2
Mario Williams	6	$4.4	$9.0
Alex Smith	6	$4.0	$8.3
Eli Manning	7	$2.9	$7.7
Carson Palmer	7	$1.4	$7.0
David Carr	7	$1.6	$6.6
Michael Vick	6	$0.5	$10.3
Courtney Brown	6	$1.8	$7.5

The numbers are frankly pretty sick, in particular the guaranteed money. In ten years, the guaranteed money has increased almost 4x, and the total money has increased 60%. The last four years (somewhat arbitrary, but skips the massive jump Smith saw over Eli), the guaranteed money has increased an average of 15% each year. That's market-busting. The same time frame has seen an average of 10% increase each year for total money.

In particular, the basic size of the compensation has gotten out of hand. Stafford has gotten nearly $42MM guaranteed, and $72MM total for six years. Compare this to a few other contracts for established QBs...
Tony Romo signed a 6 year, $67.4MM deal with $30MM guaranteed in 2007.
Peyton Manning signed a 7 year, $99.2MM deal with $34.5MM guaranteed in 2004.
Tom Brady signed a 6 year, $60MM deal with $26.5MM guaranteed in 2005.
Ben Roethlisberger signed an 8 year, $102MM deal with $33.2MM guaranteed in 2008.
Drew Brees signed a 6 year, $60MM deal with $20MM guaranteed in 2006.
Carson Palmer signed a 6 year, $94MM deal with $15MM guaranteed after the '05 season.
Donovan McNabb signed a 12 year, $115MM deal with $20.5MM guaranteed in 2003.

Manning and Palmer are the only ones on this list above that have more total money per year than Stafford. None of them have more guaranteed money or guaranteed money per year. The seven QBs I've listed above are pretty much unquestionably the best QBs currently playing in the NFL not still on their first contract.

Matthew Stafford, the guy who has a ton of questions surrounding him. The guy who may not have been the best QB prospect in this year's draft class. The guy who was picked number one overall in what was said to be the weakest draft class in years. A guy who has never played a down in the NFL.

Matthew Stafford is no lower than the third highest paid QB in the NFL.

There are two issues this creates. The first is a CBA / NFLPA issue, and will be addressed in CBA negotiations. These contracts are taking money away from the established veterans who have earned their paydays. It is virtually impossible to argue Alex Smith has earned the $35 - $40 million he's been paid so far. Russell, even if he turns into a solid QB in the next four years, has essentially wasted two years for the Raiders, which turns his deal from $5.3 guar/year and $10.2 tot/year into $8 guar/year and $15.25 tot/year, spreading his money out over four instead of six years. So far the NFLPA is playing this issue as a non-starter they don't care about, but as Patrick said to me, it'll simply be used as a nugget to concede to the owners in negotiations.

The second is that it turns the top picks into an incredible burden for teams, where it's typically supposed to be helpful for them. Take a look at Jimmy Johnson's well known draft value chart, put together well over a decade ago prior to these rookie deals going out of control. As an example, the Browns traded with the Jets, from #5 to #17. To do this, the Jets would have to give 750 points in value. Their 2nd round pick was worth only 410 according to this chart. Sure they gave up some players, but none are critical players. They would need to give another 340 points worth. Anyone here think the Jets could have gotten the #56 overall pick for those three players?

The Browns are the first team since 2004 to successfully trade a top five draft pick. The reason for that is fairly simple. It's not cause the talent isn't there (though that's true some years). It's that no one wants to take the chance that a guy they're gonna pay $8MM - $12MM per year busts, in addition to the multiple picks it would take to secure him.

And there-in lies the problem. Detroit was an historically bad team last year. If any team needs the ability to get the best prospect available, it's them. And yet the pick is a burden for them, because it takes so much money to sign the guy. If Stafford busts out, it has two terrible connotations for the team. First, they are cap strapped at least partially because of the deal, limiting their ability to sign additional help needed to get out of the gutter. Second, the money they've committed to him nearly forces him to start earlier than maybe he should, and makes it impossible to wash their hands of him early if all signs point to bust. This means he sucks longer for the team, hurting them further. Alex Smith is the perfect example of both of these issues.

I have to agree with Czaban/Banks. I think this deal will wind up being a tipping point in implementing a rookie salary cap or fixed scale of some sort. I think this will be a great thing both for the league, as well as for the teams picking at the top that need the help these picks are supposed to offer. With any luck, it happens next off-season.

Read more...

Video from the Ravens war room

Here's video from the Ravens war room, at the time of their selection of Oher, complete with the guy who calls it in misspelling Oher's name:

War room vid

Other than Ozzie and Harbaugh:

• That's Cam Cameron on the phone with Oher.
• The guy at 1:35 in jeans and a dress shirt, sitting on Ozzie's left who pats his arm and tells him "good job", is owner Bisciotti.
• It's dir of player personnel Eric DaCosta whom Ozzie tells at 1:45 "You kill me with your scientific s**t."
• The guy in the green shirt, whom Harbaugh hugs and then tells "Best offensive line in the league," is OL coach John Matsko.
• The bald guy is the spec teams coord Rosburg.
• The old guy sitting down the table, just visible for an instant at 1:08, I think is former owner Modell. Might be wrong there: but they do continue to involve him in stuff. He was present at the presser announcing Harbaugh's hiring.
  
• That's team president Dick Cass to Bisciotti's left at 1:15, who asks if Oher was the last guy in the green room.

Great to see Ozzie looking so relaxed and confident at the head of the table. Perhaps most interesting is the view of the walls around the room. I guess that's what the draft board looks like. The vid doesn't have enough resolution to read the names on the cards, but you can see how it's laid out, and get a sense of the process.

Great vid.

Read more...

Thoughts on the Draft

I'm typing this as I watch. Not gonna do several posts, just one long one with a bunch of random thoughts.

4:05 - Interesting the fervor of the boos for the Stafford pick, and ESPN shows a couple of Stafford supporters cheering. I wonder if it was because of the size of his contract or something like that? Or maybe it just wasn't a NY guy and so the city boos him?

It'd be funny if Stafford just went up to the mic and said "Eff you guys, I've got $42 mil, so you can suck it!"

4:15 - Good selection by the Rams. They tried the smoke-screens, and good for the other teams that were (reportedly ... HUGE caveat of course) thinking about trading into the spot, calling the Rams bluff. Jason Smith is a good kid, too. You look at his reaction, and he's not just smugly happy knowing he's a big prospect about to sign a huge deal. He just looks thrilled to have been picked.

4:27 - Wow, the Tyson Jackson hype panned out. Good for him I guess, but hella reach for the Chiefs. And let's not forget the Chiefs haven't had the greatest luck with first round DL-men, and not like they don't have practice. Jackson is the fourth in the last eight years.

4:34 - The first real surprise of the draft. Not sure any mock I saw had Curry going to Seattle, and I don't think Kiper had EVER talked about Seattle taking the kid, so I think Boomer saying "Not really surprising" about the pick is funny. But this is a great pick. Clearly not the biggest need spot for them, clearly BPA. Starts the Seahawks out really well.

4:37 - LOL... I'm flipping between NFLN and ESPN. Mort comes on ESPN so I switch over to NFLN, where Deion is about to start interviewing Curry. Lesser of two evils? Mort wins that contest...

4:42 - I know it's totally false excitement cause it doesn't impact me and it's not game action, but these moments in the draft when the crowd blows up with the trade announcement, and then the speculation of who it's for, and then Sanchez jumping out of his chair cheering... These are the moments that make the draft a lot of fun and fairly exciting to watch.

And man, did the Browns get a haul for that pick.

4:53 - Meh, color me unimpressed. Andre Smith has so much potential, but I think he's the kinda guy who really needs discipline to reach his potential. Is Cinci gonna provide that? Doubtful.

4:57 - Raiders didn't waste any time getting that pick in, did they? I love it. Never count the Raiders out to do the dumbest possible thing.

I think what concerns me most (and makes me happiest the Ravens didn't take him) about Heyward-Bey (DHB) is the look on his face when he was taken. Pretty much the exact opposite of Smith and Curry's reaction. His family blows up, and he just sits there with this look on his face like "Yeah that's right, I am the m*$%&#$@ing man."

McShay on ESPN just says "This has bust written all over it." Yeah, no joke here. Mayock looks virtually in shock that DHB gets taken before Crabtree, and it saying it's quite possible the Jags trade the pick to someone who wants him. Kudos to Crabtree...looks calm on camera (though he looked literally shocked when the pick was announced) and still smiling.

I actually half wonder if he was relieved the Raiders didn't take him...

5:06 - You know, I can't help but think the Jags are just gun-shy about drafting WRs. It's understandable, between R Jay Soward, Reggie Williams and Matt Jones. And Monroe really is a good pick at #8 overall. But Michael Crabtree, almost unquestionably the second best prospect in this draft, is starting to represent simply ridiculous value.

5:12 - BJ Raji appears to be the guy, but I couldn't help but feel a little bit of hope that the Ravens do exactly the opposite of what they did with the Jags last year and go from 26 to 9 to get Crabtree for their 1st, 3rd and a 2nd next year. Raji is a decent pick for them.

5:15 - LOL...Erin Andrews says when the Raiders made the pick, someone at the Crabtree table went "Phew!"

At this point, is it even possible that the Niners take anyone other than Crabtree, or trade the pick to someone who will?

5:24 - No.

5:28 - Maybin concerns me a bit. I feel like he's got boom or bust written all over him. And that it's more likely he busts.

5:34 - The Moreno pick to Denver is a bit surprising, but I'm not too surprised by it. I mean, they had such RB issues last year. Maybe this finally locks the position down for a while.

Right after that goes Orakpo to the Skins. Pretty solid value there...they have to be thrilled he fell to them I think. Very good blend of need and value.

5:42 - Great pick for the Saints. Another blend of need and value. Jenkins can just play football, regardless of his speed, and the Saints need help everywhere in that backfield.

5:47 - Cushing to the Texans. To me, that seemed kinda obvious, and really just to me it's a boring pick.

5:53 - Larry English off the board. Man, what a freakin' reach. Ridiculous. English just screams to me of a guy that one team likes, and so another looks again and likes him, and someone else and someone else and it all just piles on and suddenly the guy's taken a round higher than he prolly should be because a dozen teams want him.

That said, Patrick correctly has said that AJ Smith is a wizard talent evaluator, so I have to trust this pick.

6:03 - I know they only got a 6th round pick for the move down, but the Browns haven't even picked yet and they are just crushing this draft. Three players and two extra picks, and they don't have to pay top five money to a guy who isn't talented enough to go top ten last year (yeah, all of them).

Freeman sucks. Kyle Boller v2.0.

I have to think the NFL Network probably isn't thrilled with its decision to put Gruden in front of the camera. He sounds pretty clueless out there. They were just making fun of him on set for finally getting one call right.

6:08 - Ayers was such an obvious pick. It was either him or Brown, after taking Moreno with their #12.

6:15 - Third trade in the round for the Browns. What a great draft they're having. Maclin is a little surprising for the Eagles, but we knew they wanted a receiver. I'm a bit surprised they didn't take a RB. But Maclin is pretty good value here.

6:22 - Solid pick for Det. Pettigrew will both help protect as well as provide a good safety outlet for their new $42MM QB.

6:27 - So after all the movement, they take a guy who just looks like he's gonna be a very solid player.

6:29 - Harvin to the Vikes makes sense, but I hate rewarding a guy that clearly has discipline issues, smoking pot close enough to the combine to test positive at it. Plus, the Vikes have a terrible track record at helping troubled players, so this might be the worst spot for Harvin to have gone.

6:35 - Balt goes up and gets Oher. I was chatting with Patrick and saying he's a lock if he falls to 26, and they went up and got him. I love that pick. Terrific value, and fills a semi-need too at RT. Great pick IMO.

6:41 - Jerry to the Falcons is pretty good value. Tons of great value in this range.

6:46 - Davis is a big talent with tons of questions, but I trust Parcells to have filled his staff with guys that will keep troubled players in line the same way he would. This could be a great pick.

6:54 - Oh what a shock, NE trades down some more. GB goes up and gets Matthews, who I guess a lot of people are high on, but I'm really not at all. None of the USC LBs are overly impressive to me, at least without getting into a great spot. GB's D is horrible, I don't see him as a huge difference maker for them.

7:01 - Donald Brown to the Colts? They don't like Addai all of a sudden? I think this is the first pick that really shocks me. I don't think it's a bad pick, I think Brown is a beast. But I didn't expect that at all.

7:04 - An unsexy pick for the Bills, but not too bad.

7:09 - Hakeem Nicks to the Gints. No surprise there at all. Great pick.

7:18 - Britt to the Titans is as unsurprising as Nicks to the Gints.

7:28 - Beanie Wells falls to the Cards, another obvious selection.

7:31 - And we close the first round with Evander Hood, a very solid pickup for them. Not surprising they're picking in the trenches.

There's really a lot of value right now that's still around. Maualuga, Butler, Laurinitus, Unger, etc. A fun first round, but for me, the draft has only just begun...

Read more...

The Emperor Has No Clothes

Ray Gustini is rapidly becoming one of my core 'must read' columnists. A regular at NFP he often has a good way of cutting to the core of things in enlightening ways. Enough with the superlatives. His column from today I find particularly embarrassing, because I am That Guy.

Premise No. 1: Nothing really happens at the NFL Draft — This is true. While the networks covering the draft increasingly view the event as an ideal place to unveil the latest designs in arbitrary, distracting on-screen graphics, the fact remains that this is essentially just two days of calling out the names of people you’ve never heard of.

Well now, the entire draft instantly denuded and my three month football raison d'être eviscerated.

Indeed, why do we care about the draft? Not that the draft isn't important or that football people shouldn't care about the draft, but does it really matter so much which guy who I've never heard of prior to a couple months ago - or maybe never - my team picks on Sunday? It's really just an entry in our voracious national appetite for All Things NFL, our country's 11 month professional sport. I can't imagine how pissed the NBA and NHL are that one of their prime playoff weekends has been stolen from them, so that middle-aged weekend warriors can ignore yardwork for 36 hours of Big Boards and highlights and instant (and instantly forgotten) analysis by Big Haired Television types. The NFL added insult to injury this year, pushing the Saturday start back to prime time, relegating basketball and hockey eyeballs to the early games that no one but the die-hards watch anyway.

Heck with it. I think I will leave my television off all weekend. Temps in the 80s all three days, I have plenty of winter clean-up and spring prep to do. The draft can just proceed without me.

Natch. Maybe it can't.

Read more...

McShay's Mock

I'm not a big fan of mocks at all. They are usually accurate to about the third overall pick before they fall apart.

But this? Well, if nothing else it is an extremely impressive pointless exercise.

Read more...

Mock Draft

Everyone does ‘em, why shouldn’t I?!?!?

On a more serious tone, it’s taken me a while to really realize how useless mock drafts are. It was around Aaron Rodgers that I started to understand that NFL personnel as well as media pundits are who they are for a reason. Sometimes the media guys get it right. But mostly, the NFL team execs have their ratings, and how we rate the players is pretty much meaningless.

Which brings us to the curious case of Matthew Stafford. Not one person I’ve heard has said “This is the top prospect in the draft this year.” Not one. In fact, most people have said some version of “He may not even be the best QB in this draft. Detroit is going to take him. But if they don’t take him, I have no idea where he’ll be drafted.” Patrick said to me the other day something along the lines of “Where is he? Is he the best prospect? The 15th best?”

And yet pretty much everyone has Stafford going to Detroit with #1 overall. I remember there were a lot of questions about Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers, and that both were thought about at #1 overall while everyone openly admitted they were not the top prospect. But they were both thought to be top five prospects by pretty much everyone. That’s the big difference that I see between this and Stafford. No one seems to be saying Stafford IS a top five prospect. They’re saying “If he is, Detroit should take him.”

And we remember how Smith and Rodgers turned out, right? Smith crippled the Niners, who are still digging out of that hole; Rodgers lasted into the 20s before going to a team that allowed him to sit a few years and develop under one of the best. So can anyone really argue Stafford should be the Lions pick?

I can’t. If it were me, I’d do one of two things. First choice, I’d take the best overall prospect, IMO Aaron Curry. The Lions are in the unenviable position of needing help everywhere. So they truly have the luxury of taking BPA, and then saying “It was a pick to address a major need!” However, if they truly have locked in on Stafford, then I think the “right” move for them is to say to Stafford “We want you. We also know very few other teams do. So we’ll pay you $25MM up front and $50MM total for six years. Or, we’ll take someone else. You could easily fall outside the top ten, which would result in your getting half that money. Your choice.” I’d also give serious consideration to simply sitting on the pick for five picks, and then turning in the card.

With that said, I can’t not give Detroit Stafford at #1, because Vegas says so. Maybe it’s stupid reasoning. But I’ve spent a great deal of time studying various forms of gambling, and if there’s one rule, it’s that Vegas will always come out on top. The bookie odds for Stafford going #1 overall are in the range of 75% to 80%. Maybe that’s not dead-on accurate. But there’s no chance the price is that high on a guy the Lions are less than 50% to take…

1 – Detroit Lions: Matt Stafford, QB, Georgia
I guess you could say it fills a need. They have needs everywhere though, and if I were them, I’d take Aaron Curry. There’s a far higher chance he turns into the next Ray Lewis than Stafford turns into the next Dan Marino. And more importantly, there’s far LESS chance he turns into the next Andy Katzenmoyer than Stafford turns into the next Ryan Leaf.

2 – St Louis Rams: Jason Smith, OT, Baylor
Bulger getting killed early and often last year was a big cause for their offensive struggles. Smith isn’t the cleanest prospect, but he’s probably the best at the safest position, and the Rams need to hit after having the #2 overall for the second straight year.

3 – Kansas City Chiefs: Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest
A lot of people have him here simply cause Pioli took Mayo last year and people think he just loves LBs. I personally think Pioli just loves BPA, and Curry is probably the second cleanest prospect this decade, behind Calvin Johnson. Low risk of busting, huge upside. I also think there’s a very reasonable chance the Chiefs move down from this spot. Specifically, trading with the Redskins and collecting their #1 overall next year along with some other picks this year.

4 – Seattle Seahawks: Mark Sanchez, QB, USC
So many people have the Hawks locked in on this guy. I used to think it was gonna be Crabtree, but after they signed Houshmandzadeh, it allows them to look elsewhere. Sanchez has huge up-side, but his lack of experience is a concern. The Hawks can have him sit behind Hasselbeck for a year or two and learn the ropes, which is probably the best thing for him.

5 – Cleveland Browns: BJ Raji, DT, Boston College
Lots of questions here. The Browns have a ton of needs, and if they trade Edwards, they are a threat to take Crabtree. But Mangini is a defensive guy, and in the division with two teams built around power-house defenses and strong running games, I suspect they’ll try to shore up the middle of their line before anything else.

6 – Cincinnati Bengals: Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia
Last year, shockingly, the defense wasn’t the Bengals problem, the offense was. Palmer was a disaster and is coming off an injury, and the Bengals have to find a way to protect him better. Monroe has health questions, but otherwise fits the bill.

7 – Oakland Raiders: Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech
I’m sorry, I’m not buying the Mel Kiper et al hype machine that says the Raiders will fall all over themselves for Maclin cause he’s a speed guy and they just love speed. Crabtree is IMO the second best prospect in this draft. Huge, fast, runs crisp routes, catches the ball clean, etc. His only flaw is his giant ego, and the Raiders probably consider that a positive anyway. This, IMO, is a no-brainer if he falls here.

8 – Jacksonville Jaguars: Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri
This team’s WRs have been so bad over the years I think it probably makes Del Rio cry at night. They just gave Torry Over-the-Hill Holt almost $7MM/year (yeah, I know it’s incentives, still…). There’s no QB here. The best prospects are DEs and the Jags just took two with their first couple picks last year. Maybe I’m just stupid putting him here, but given the board I’ve got above them, I don’t see who else they’d be that interested in.

9 – Green Bay Packers: Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas
They’ll probably fall all over themselves to turn this card in, but who knows. This team needs a ton of defensive help, and despite Orakpo’s terrible inconsistency, he’s absolutely dominant when he’s on his game.

10 – San Fransisco 49ers: Andre Smith, OT, Alabama
They’ll probably love it if he falls this far. LT has been a huge need of theirs for a while, and chalk me up as a guy that thinks Singletary can handle any attitude issues Smith might give. The team needs help at other spots so guys like Brown at DE are options, as well as going with Oher as a less risky prospect than Smith.

11 – Buffalo Bills: Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss
I hate drafting for need. There are other, better prospects available here. But the margin isn’t huge, and the drop from Oher to the next best OT is pretty dramatic. They picked up the Eagles first rounder, they need a pass rusher, my guess is they’ll address that position later.

12 – Denver Broncos: Everette Brown, DE/OLB, Florida St
He’s probably BPA and he also fills a need. Perfect combo. The Broncos have a bunch of picks in the first couple rounds both this year and next. I would expect a vast majority of them to be spent on the defensive side of the ball. One interesting note, though. Does anyone else think McDaniels is running the show, and Xanders is basically a warm body to fill a title? It looked that way to me in the Cutler mess. And if that’s the case, McDaniels may want to beef up the offense, specifically the running game, which could make Moreno or Wells the pick.

13 – Washington Redskins: Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee
The hype machine is on, and never assume Danny Snyder won’t fall for some great hype. They need a pass rusher badly, and lots of media pundits seem to be falling all over themselves about this guy flying up the board. Snyder is one of the few suckers out there that could fall for it, and don’t think Cerrato is anything but a yes-man.

14 – New Orleans Saints: Malcolm Jenkins, CB/S, Ohio St
“He’s not fast, he’s not fast!” They cry it from the roof-tops. “He’s too slow, he won’t succeed!” Blah. So what if he’s 0.1 seconds over 40 yards away from being considered a top five prospect? The guy can flat play football, and the Saints have needs all over their backfield so they’ll find a spot for him. I think this guy will turn out to be huge value falling this far.

15 – Houston Texans: Brian Cushing, LB, USC
Seriously, who the hell knows. There are lots of spots they could go for here on the defensive side of the ball. This team looks like it’s on the rise, so they can go BPA here. The problem is, who’s the BPA? Lotta guys look like they’re somewhere scattered between 15 and 30, and I would bet on the 32 NFL teams boards, if you looked at #15 overall, you would probably find no less than a dozen different names.

16 – San Diego Chargers: Rey Maualuga, LB, USC
Slotting a RB for the Chargers seems to be a sexy move on most mocks. But I’m not buying into that hype. Maualuga has some risk, but I would guess the Chargers would love to plug him into that defense. The Chargers usually just go BPA, but your guess is as good as mine on who that is.

17 – New York Jets: Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas St
Ugh. I love me some Rex Ryan and hope he succeeds, but I think this would be an awful pick. Pretty much no chance Freeman falls past Tampa Bay, and someone may move up to get him. But I don’t like the kid this high. Pop quiz: What’s the difference between Josh Freeman and Jamarcus Russell? Russell was a better prospect. Get the hint?

18 – Denver Broncos: Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU
I pretty much think the same thing here as I thought at #12 overall. They need a lot of pass rush help, he’s probably BPA, it’s a fit.

19 – Tampa Bay Bucs: Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia
I think I’m the only person on the planet with a RB in this spot. And maybe there’s a reason for that. But last year, Dunn led the team in rushing with under 800 yards and is 33 years old. Graham is 28 and in Gruden’s dog-house. With no QB worth looking at till the fourth round, how is this spot not a big need for them, that could be filled by a great prospect?

20 – Detroit Lions: Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss
Man these guys need so much help on defense it’s not funny. It starts here, solidifying the middle. Laurinaitus is another option here, as is Matthews. I could even see Vonte Davis. Whatever…point is, even if they go defense with #1 overall, defense is probably the pick here. With Stafford, it’s pretty much a lock.

21 – Philadelphia Eagles: Chris Beanie Wells, RB, Ohio St
Show me a mock (since the trade with Buffalo) that doesn’t have a RB in this slot.

22 – Minnesota Vikings: Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland
Part of me sticks him here simply to get him off the board before the Ravens cause I really don’t like him. The other part of me says “The Vikes need help in the passing game, there’s no QB available, so WR is the next best thing.” All the WRs at this point have question marks.

23 – New England Patriots: Darius Butler, CB, UConn
I’m probably getting juked out of my jock strap here, but I’ll buy into the hype on this one. Everyone’s saying he’s locked up if he makes it to 23, so I’ll just say “Sir yes sir” and move on.

24 – Atlanta Falcons: Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma St
Combo of almost BPA and need make this an easy pick. ‘Nuff said.

25 – Miami Dolphins: Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina
I love this kid. Except that he tweaked a hammy and then got fat. Now suddenly he’s rocketing down draft boards. Let’s just say that I think Parcells is the kind of guy who will take this kid based on his talent, and has filled his coaching staff with guys he knows will whip his sorry butt into serious shape.

26 – Baltimore Ravens: Aaron Maybin, DE/OLB, Penn State
I combo loving and hating this pick here. I’m a Penn State guy. Ozzie seems to hate Penn State guys (frustrating!). And Maybin is really boom or bust. That’s why I hate it…I simply don’t buy this will be the pick. But then there’s the other side. The Ravens have made a career out of taking these pure pass rushing tweeners, and turning them into defensive monsters. Boulware, Adalius Thomas, Suggs…meet the next in that line. FWIW, I also think a trade down here (if not for Boldin) is a strong likelihood.

27 – Indianapolis Colts: Clay Matthews, LB, USC
I’m really not certain here, but I do think Polian will take whoever he thinks is the best player on the board.

28 – Buffalo Bills: Michael Johnson, DE, GA Tech
They need a pass rusher, they take a pass rusher.

29 – New York Giants: Percy Harvin, WR, Florida
This could also be traded for a WR. Huge, huge need with Plaxico gone, and they’d probably love getting Harvin who has so much raw talent. They also may balk at his troubles, given Plaxico’s recent problems, so I could see Britt here instead.

30 – Tennessee Titans: Evander Hood, DT, Missouri
Vonte Davis is a name I see here a lot. Let’s see…how’d it go the last time the Titans picked a really talented CB with lots of off-field issues? Oh yeah. I’m pretty sure their memories are more elephant-like than the media’s.

31 – Arizona Cardinals: Donald Brown, RB, UConn
He fits here, allowing the Cards to move away from Edge; but there could be guys on the defensive side that are attractive here instead.

32 – Pittsburgh Steelers: Max Unger, C, Oregon
A beast on the inside, he fills a need and probably fits the bill as BPA.

Read more...

Inside a Draft War-Room

I'm not a big fan of acting like an update news anchor, but in this case I'll make an exception.

Here is an interesting article on what actually happens inside an NFL draft war room.

Read more...

NFL Flexes Giant Muscles, Bullies NCAA

Apparently the NFL has caused a bit of a scheduling conflict with the NCAA and the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl. They've scheduled the Packers @ Cardinals game one day prior to the Bowl game, where the NCAA reportedly has a contract in place with the stadium operator saying a game cannot be played less than two days before the event. The Cards deal apparently says the same thing.

So now the NFL front offices are leaving the Cards out to dry and let them apologize...for what, I'm not sure. But one way or the other, the NFL has said they have no intention of rescheduling the game.

"Oh, what, you have a game scheduled a day after ours? Oh, there's a contract saying our game isn't legal? Sorry, I don't know anything about that contract. If you'd like, I hear there's another stadium close by that you could play in..."

What's interesting to me about this is how the NFL has in the past always seemed to get out of the way when dealing with the NCAA. They never schedule games on Saturdays where there's NCAA action, just like they don't on Fridays for high school football. Classically they've seen it as protecting their own future. So why they're picking now to fire up such a confrontation, over something that's really so small as a regular season game, is beyond me. How tough is it really to just say "Oh man, sorry, we didn't realize it, we're taking actions immediately to rectify the situation?"

The NCAA "isn't threatening legal action" (not a direct quote) although they're pretty clearly threatening legal action, wink wink nudge nudge. Will be interesting to see who's got the muscle for this one.

Read more...

Addendum

After sleeping on yesterday's article on where to find the most value in the draft I started wondering if the sweet spot for elite players/value is in the #6 - #15 spot. Easy enough to rearrange players to see where they fall. These players land contracts in the 5/$35M range:

           1996  97   98   99  00   01   02   03   04   05      Overall

Elite       2     2    2    4   2    2    4    2    2    3         25
Solid       4     3    7    4   6    3    5    4    7    4         47
Bust        4     5    1    2   2    5    1    4    1    3         28

When we compare this to the prior totals:

             1-10            11-20          21-30
Elite         27               24             9
Solid         39               44            47
Bust          34               31            43 

Well ... not much difference. It still looks like the sweet spot of the draft but only by a little, and certainly not more than can be attributed to variance. Still, worth an eyeball.

Read more...

Finding Value In The First Round

I thought it would be a little fun to take a look at the relative differences between value among top ten draft picks as compared to players taken in the second ten, 1-20 and third ten - from 21-30. It crossed my mind that the benefit of picking at the top of the draft might be entirely illusory, it might actually be simply an expensive dart game.

The goal was to look at a ten year period, a total of 300 players, to give us a large enough sample where we can begin to draw conclusions. I decided to end the process in 2005 since we can fairly confidently close the book on that draft now, and thus began in 1996. It is difficult to create an objective way to compare players across a period like this since the latter players still have nascent careers while the earlier players are mostly retired so I chose a subjective route instead, rating players as bust/disappointing (one category), solid long-term pro, or elite difference maker.

Using the 1996 top ten as an example we have:

Keyshawn Johnson                  Solid Pro
Kevin Hardy                       Solid Pro
Simeon Rice                       Elite
Jonathan Ogden                    Elite
Cedric Jones                      Bust
Lawrence Phillips                 Bust
Terry Glenn                       Solid
Tim Biakabatuka                   Bust
Rickey Dudley                     Bust
Willie Anderson                   Elite

so very good top ten in 1996. By comparison the 1996 21-30:

Pete Kendall                      Solid
Marcus Jones                      Bust
Jeff Hartings                     Solid
Eric Moulds                       Solid
Jermane Mayberry                  Solid
Ray Lewis                         Elite
John Michels                      Bust
Jerome Woods                      Solid
Jemain Stephens                   Bust
Andre Johnson                     Bust

As expected the top ten outperformed the third ten by a bit with 3 elite players and 3 solids as compared with 1 elite and 5 solids in the third ten. In fairness the "solid" top tenners this year were much better than the "solid" 21-30 players. Hopefully this balances out as we work our way through.

One final note: looking at 2008 rookie salaries, it looks like the annual average for top ten picks was $8.5M and for 21-30 picks ~ $2.5M. Arguably we would need to see three times the value from the top ten just to break even.

1996

             1-10            11-20          21-30
Elite         3                2              1
Solid         3                7              5
Bust          4                1              4 

We discussed this draft a bit already. The second ten delivered a number of solid, productive pros along with elite players Marvin Harrison and Eddie George. I reluctantly included Reggie Brown in the solid category as he played very well before nearly dying on the field in a career-ending injury his second year.

1997

             1-10            11-20          21-30
Elite         3                2              1
Solid         4                4              3
Bust          3                4              6 

1997 had a similar distribution of elite players throughout the first round. Orlando Pace, Peter Boulware and Walter Jones in the top ten, Tony Gonzales and Tarik Glenn in the second ten and Trevor Pryce a marginal elite in the third ten. James Farrior gets labeled as a top ten bust, although he managed to resurrect his career after leaving the Jets, making the Pro Bowl last year.

1998

             1-10            11-20          21-30
Elite         2                2              2
Solid         5                5              6
Bust          3                3              2 

Unless you were Indianapolis (Peyton Manning), there was no real advantage to having any other high pick in the draft, as players were evenly distributed throughout. The top ten saw Manning and Charles Woodson, the second ten Tra Thomas and Keith Brooking, the third ten Randy Moss and Alan Faneca. Robert Edwards was rated "solid" on the basis of his rookie year, as he ruined his knee and career in his sophomore training camp.

1999

             1-10            11-20          21-30
Elite         5                2              1
Solid         3                4              3
Bust          2                4              6 

On the other hand, '99 was a great year to pick at the top of the drafted, provided the team didn't fixate on one of the two overrated quarterbacks who went top three (Couch, Akili Smith). McNabb, Edgerrin James, Torry Holt, Champ Bailey and Chris McAlister were drafted top ten, making multiple Pro Bowls. Additionally, other than Bailey, each participated in at least one Super Bowl as well. The second ten produced Dante Culpepper and Jevon Kearse. The third ten was awful with only one marginally elite player, Patrick Kerney at #30, immediately following legendary bust Demetrious Underwood.

2000

             1-10            11-20          21-30
Elite         3                3              0
Solid         4                4              4
Bust          3                2              6 

Picking anywhere in the top 20 was likely to provide relatively equal value in 2000. Note that I only counted 9 players from 11-20. Oakland selected Sebastian Janikowski. Other than calling the pick a bust for the stupidity of picking a kicker in the first round, he defies classification so I pass. The top ten produced Lavar Arrington, Chris Samuels and Brian Urlacher, the second ten John Abraham, Julian Peterson and Shaun Alexander. Note that several other very good players went in the top ten who were just shy of the elite category: Jamal Lewis, Cory Simon, Thomas Jones, and Plaxico Burress.

2001

             1-10            11-20          21-30
Elite         2                3              1
Solid         4                5              5
Bust          4                2              4 

Not much advantage to picking top ten in 2001. Mike Vick (solid) went at the top of and the next two players disappointed. LaDainian Tomlinson and Richard Seymour went with consecutive picks at #5 and #6. Another all-time bust, Jamal Reynolds, went #10. The second ten produced three elite linemen with Marcus Stroud, Steve Hutchinson and Casey Hampton. The third ten had Reggie Wayne at #30.

2002

             1-10            11-20          21-30
Elite         2                3              1
Solid         4                2              6
Bust          4                5              2 

In 2002 it was easier getting an elite outside of the top ten again. Julius Peppers may have been the best player in the draft at #2 but was sandwiched by three busts at #1, #3 and #4. Roy Williams (db) was the other marginal elite in the top ten. The second ten produced Albert Haynesworth along with Dwight Freeney and Jeremy Shockey (marginal). The third ten a number of solid players along with Ed Reed.

2003

             1-10            11-20          21-30
Elite         4                1              0
Solid         2                3              5
Bust          4                6              5 

Not a good draft with 15/30 busts or disappointments in the first round. Note that the best or second best player in the round was Nnamdi Asomugha at #31 - outside of our sample. The top ten was relatively productive with Carson Palmer, Andre Johnson, Kevin Williams and Terrell Suggs. The only other elite player in the '03 first round was Troy Polamalu at #16. Larry Johnson was a near-elite at #27 but he is looking brittle and just not enough elite years.

2004

             1-10            11-20          21-30
Elite         3                3              1
Solid         6                6              4
Bust          1                1              5 

2004 was a very productive draft with only two busts in the first twenty picks (Reggie Williams and the unfortunate Kenechi Udeze). The top ten produced Larry Fitzgerald, Philip Rivers and Sean Taylor as elites. There is good potential for Eli Manning, Roy Williams, Kellen Winslow and/or DeAngelo Hall to join them, depending on how their careers progress. The second ten Ben Roethlisberger, Tommie Harris and Shawn Andrews. Stephen Jackson was the lone elite from the third ten, and that contingent on him bouncing back and actually starting full-time for a couple of years.

It gets tougher to compile these as we get closer to the present, as it is much more dependent on projections and subjectivity. Even so, one more year:

2005

             1-10            11-20          21-30
Elite         0                3              1
Solid         4                4              6
Bust          6                3              3 

The 2005 draft was probably the worst draft in recent memory, with very little value coming out of the top ten. With only 4 elite players, 2005 also rated the worst with only one other year producing as few as 5. Top ten busts included Alex Smith, Cedric "Tears" Benson, Cadillac Williams, Pacman Jones, Butterfingers Williamson and "Buffet" Mike Williams (I thought I would stick with the nickname theme once I got rolling. Alex Smith ... nothing comes to mind. Maybe "Boring".) The best value in the draft came just outside the top ten with DeMarcus Ware, Shawn Merriman and Jammal Brown going #11 - #13. The third ten produced Roddy White as the only elite skill position guy in the first round.

So putting the whole thing together:

             1-10            11-20          21-30
Elite         27               24             9
Solid         39               44            47
Bust          34               31            43 

What is probably most striking is the difference between the first ten and second ten. With an average of ~ $20M difference in contracts between these groups, there is virtually no difference in the quality of NFL player that they produce. To be fair, it could be argued that the elite top ten players are better than the elite players later in the first round. Manning, Bailey, Kevin Williams, Tomlinson and Urlacher have all been considered the best players at their respective positions at one time or another. Few outside of the top ten can make the same claim.

Even so, with the vast difference in investment at the top of the draft and even after pick #5 over all it is very hard to argue that there is any benefit, either in value or in absolute talent, to pick at the top of the draft.

Read more...