Tedy Bruschi

Bruschi retires.

The piece mentions that "Bruschi played on all three Super Bowl-winning Patriots teams." It doesn't mention that Bruschi also played on the Pats '96 squad that made the SB under Bill Parcells. He was a rookie that year.

The Patriots era of dominance rightly begins with Parcells tenure as head coach, 1993-6. There was a 3-yr interregnum under Pete Carroll; but Carroll had a winning record, and from a distance it doesn't look like he screwed up the roster too much. A fair number of the key players on Belichick's SB teams joined the Pats under Parcells.

Belichick's SB teams (the winning ones) were known primarily as dominant defensive squads. Opportunistic & efficient on offense, but almost mystically great on D.

I've been curious about something. How will the Hall of Fame voters treat the players from those defenses? I'm thinking specifically of the guys who took the Pats to the SB in '96, and then came back 5 yrs later to make New England the premier franchise in the sport. The core guys were probably:

Bruschi
Willie McGinest
Ted Johnson
Mike Vrabel
Ty Law

(Vince Wilfork & Richard Seymour came along later.)

Some of those guys should go in, right?

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I am rooting for Michael Vick

Donnie Andrews works as head of security at Bethel AME, an African-American church in the Baltimore area. He counsels young gang members, attempting to get them out of the life and keep them out of the drug trade. One of these was the son of his would-be wife, whom he successfully pulled off a corner selling “blue tops” (crack vials with blue tops). He is the picture of a model citizen.

But it wasn’t always this way. In 1987, Andrews copped to a murder he committed in 1986. He was known in the Baltimore streets as a stick-up man, robbing drug dealers to make his living. If you watched the HBO series “The Wire,” you certainly know Omar Little, who was modeled after Donnie (and a few other Baltimore area stick-up men), and Donnie played one of Omar’s crew in seasons 4 and 5.

Donnie was convicted of murder and sentenced to life in prison. He began a long road of reform which started in prison, counseling drug addicts. He spent 17 years there and was released in 2005. (Links to read more about Andrews at the bottom of this article.)

I’ve been thinking a lot about Michael Vick and what he did, what he’s been through and what should happen with him now. He’s done some horrible, inexcusable things. Okay, not some…many. He tortured and murdered helpless animals for sport and money. Those dogs that were killed never get a second chance at their lives.

Just like Zach Roach will never get a second chance at his life, thanks to Andrews.

But, like Andrews, society has deemed Vick's debt paid. There is much debate as to whether Vick should be serving more time, paying a steeper price for what he’s done. This, however, isn’t for me to decide. I have no say in the matter, and regardless how much I want Vick to pay that steeper price, he simply won’t…not for these crimes.

And so I’m left with seeing the man on a National Football League team less than two years after his 23 month sentence and wondering what I should be feeling about this. And while I find what he’s done despicable, I can’t shake the feeling that rooting against him is counter-productive and generally useless.

Instead, I’m making a conscious choice to root for him. I root for him to have changed his life and his ideals. I root for him to begin to do good for society, and particularly for the animals he used to abuse. To help make those animals’ lives better and contribute to their lives in a positive way. And to succeed in his football career which will allow him more money and more status to be able to contribute in a more meaningful way.

I’m hoping he can learn from his mistakes and become a positive, productive member of society. It honestly would serve everyone better if he does this successfully, so I wish him luck in his endeavors, and hope that he doesn’t prove me a fool.

Read more about the life and reform of Donnie Andrews here and here.

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The Art of the QB Non-Competition

To nobody's real surprise, Mark Sanchez has been named the starting QB for the Jets. Somewhat by surprise, it wasn't because he had a great game Monday against the Ravens. Instead, he seems to win it based on the fact the Jets have a new, brash head coach that both saw a rookie first round pick succeed last season as well as realize he has no one attractive enough to start in front of Sanchez.

Therein lies the fun of the Jets "quarterback competition" we had seen early in the pre-season. It was never really a competition. One would say the only way it was is if Sanchez played so poorly in his first start that he worked his way out of a job. The problem is, one might think he'd have done that by throwing a pick six his first pass as a starter and nearly throwing two others prior to notching a TD pass against what amounted to mostly Ravens backups.

And so we're left to wonder if there was really any QB competition to begin with. Is it possible for him to have played his way out of the job? Would Clemens have played well enough to win the job if he'd have done more than what little he did in his two games?

One has to assume not, which begs the question, "Why even announce it as a QB competition?" I see two main arguments here, one on either side of this question.

Arguing for competition, one would think making it a competition would push Sanchez to raise his game. Make it a ruse, make him earn it, and if he plays up to the task he'll get it. Closely connected to this, if he blows up completely, Rex always has the option to keep him on the bench for a while and not look like a fool.

However, on the flip-side of this argument, coming out and giving him the job allows him more time to work with the starting team, and working against starting defenses. This could be particularly important for a rookie QB. So in my personal opinion, if there's basically nothing he could have done to lose the QB "competition" that was set early in camp, Rex probably should have simply given him the job.

That's the beauty of being an armchair quarterback (so to speak) I guess.

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Brandon, What The Hell Do You Want?

The ongoing Brandon Marshall saga fluctuates between new absurdities and the sublime, achieving a high frequency resonance of selfishness that blurs the line between legitimate complaint and wanton destruction of the Broncos' season.

And at this point I think Marshall no longer has a clue what he really wants.

So now Marshall is practicing, or sort of practicing while coming off some kind of a hamstring thing. It's clear that Josh McDaniels has no clue how to handle him. Marshall is alternatively listed as a starter and second stringer. He practiced with the scout team last week, even while the Broncos listed four wideouts as starters on their depth chart. Whatever game of chicken McDaniel is playing, he won't win. Chad Jackson will not be the Broncos' starting wide receiver in 2009.

Volumes have been written about the Broncos this off-season. They are a compelling drama, and it is hard to try to tackle the story with any kind of a new angle, they've all been beaten to death. Marshall wants a new contract, Marshall doesn't get along with McDaniels, McDaniels doesn't get along with Marshall, even as they 'like' each other through gritted teeth.

"We don't really have a relationship right now, probably because I haven't been here," said Marshall, who was sidelined during most of the offseason while recovering from hip surgery, and missed many training camp practices because of a hamstring injury and his trial.

worse for Marshall, McDaniels and the Broncos seem to be winning the battle of public opinion, such as it is.

That’s right. Don’t adjust your monitor; according to Marshall it’s the coach’s fault that he feels his hip injury was misdiagnosed. It’s the coach’s fault that the latest prima donna wide receiver thought his team should focus solely on his acquittal. It’s the coach’s fault that a Broncos’ PR exec thought the players should focus on how Marshall’s acquittal helps the team instead of throwing a parade for a man found not guilty of misdemeanor battery.

And it’s McDaniels’ fault that Marshall has gone public with his plans to ignore the playbook until he’s either traded or given a new contract. Never mind that he has a legal obligation to follow through on the agreement he signed, and you can forget about the fact that football is a team sport, not a self-indulgent reality show, and 52 other colleagues are counting on his production. Brandon Marshall has his feelings hurt because the logo on the helmet is a horse’s head, not a horse’s rear.

So somehow, the man to blame is the one wearing the big headset on the sidelines. Notice a trend? If not, here it is. I’ll spell it out for you: It’s someone else’s fault.

Where’s the accountability? Where’s the camaraderie? Where’s the giant banner that ought to be hanging from Marshall’s locker exclaiming that football is a TEAM sport?

David Ramsey of the Colorado Springs Gazette wonders whether Marshall can fit in with McDaniels' Broncos.

Brandon is not concerned with team. Brandon is concerned with Brandon.

He’s obsessed with his catches, his yards, his touchdowns. He wants to dance in the end zone while thousands chant his name.

He’s smart enough to see Denver is not a desirable destination for a wide receiver desperately in love with self and flashy numbers. He sees what every other Broncos fan can see:

Kyle Orton is not the second coming of Joe Montana. He’s not even the second coming of Jake Plummer.

If Marshall returns to play for Denver — and that’s an extremely unlikely scenario — there’s no way he grabs 100 catches for the third straight season. I don’t believe Orton could find him 75 times.

It’s easy to see why Marshall wants to flee.

we've already read this story, except the protagonist was Randy Moss and the city was Oakland.

broncobear at the MileHighReport writes a compelling and related article about the Broncos selecting for leadership.

McDaniels began the process by bringing in some of the best coaches that he could find. Mike Nolan was brought in to turn around a defense that was on life support and fading fast. Mike McCoy came on to work closely with McDaniels and change the offense. Wayne Nunnely, a 35-year veteran of the game, came in to teach the techniques and secrets of the 3-4 defense to the linemen, while other quality position coaches like Don Martindale (linebackers) and Ed Donatell (defensive backs) filled out the positions. On offense, Clancy Barone took over the tight ends and Adam Gase took on the receiving corps, while Turner and Dennison guaranteed some continuity with the running game that has long been a Denver mainstay. The special-teams play that had been missing in action for years was handed to Mike Priefer and supported by longtime Broncos specialist Keith Burns. If it's true that it all starts with the coaching, the Broncos have taken a big step forward.

The next step was to clean house on the players' side of the equation. There were wholesale releases of players who the coaches felt would not fit into the new approach to the game. Bigger, more physical, more cerebral and more versatile became the war cry of the day.

It is legitimate to wonder whether a guy like Brandon Marshall can ever fit into that locker room. Sure, in our other story Randy Moss eventually found his happily ever after, but that was with a team with a track record, stability, and veteran leadership. The Broncos are transitioning, possibly to that point, and Marshall does not appear to be patient enough for the day that point arrives.

I wish I could conclude with something glib or clever, but my jaw is as dropped as anyone's regarding Brandon Marshall. Talented football players will always draw suitors, it's the nature of the beast, and I expect Denver to exhaust every effort to include Marshall as part of a productive offense, but at this point it is really up to Marshall and - other than attention and chaos - it simply isn't clear what he really seeks.

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Jerry Jones is a blowhard, and the Redskins are just sad

How wonderful is it that the Titans rookie punter AJ Trapasso hit the Cowboys new mega-scoreboard during the preseason game last night? The broadcasters were saying that punters were regularly doing that during pre-game warmups. Jeff Fisher co-chairs the competition committee; he said "Both of our punters hit the scoreboard, so something needs to be worked out."

But Jerry Jones says there's not a problem:

"If your desire is to punt the ball straight up and hard, I can do that," Jones said, according to the Dallas Morning News. "The height that we've got it wouldn't [affect] normal kicks unless somebody just wanted to hit it."

Jerry, you're being an idiot. Just because you don't like to spend attention or money on obtaining mere special teams players for your team, does not mean that punting for hang time is not "normal". If AJ friggin Trapasso can konk the scoreboard in a game, what do you think Mike Scifres would do? He'd probably knock the stupid thing down.

Going from the sublime to the pathetic: Redskins owner Danny Snyder spent the offseason publicly pursuing stars like Jay Cutler and Mark Sanchez to replace his quarterback, Jason Campbell. It's probably true that the Skins could really use a fast start from their offense this preseason, to build confidence and get on the same page etc.

So what do they get? They open the preseason against the Ravens and Steelers, the two best defenses in the NFL (or 2 of the top 3, or whatever). It would not be at all surprising if the Skins got shut out in their first two games. It might not even be meaningful.

Would be pretty funny, though.

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Throw out ESPN!

This has got to be my favorite piece of news so far from the NFL preseason. Did you catch this? John Harbaugh threw ESPN out of Ravens practice! The story is:

As reported by Aaron Wilson of the Carroll County Times and the Annapolis Capital,

...an ESPN The Magazine crew was casually stretching out on the ground behind the end zone, lounging under an umbrella as if they were enjoying a wonderful day at the beach. Delivering a few choice expletives, Harbaugh had them thrown out of practice by a public relations official under his year-old policy that no one sits down or lays down at practice.
"When you come to Baltimore, you learn the rules," Harbaugh yelled. "This isn't a country club. Get them out of here."
Later, Harbaugh reinforced his stance during an interview with local reporters.
"Nobody lays down at Ravens practice or sits," he said. "That was disrespectful to you guys."

I heard that last quote on the radio, it was from his post-practice press conference. Asked about throwing out ESPN, he gave that nobody-lays-down line, then added "I thought that was disrespectful to you guys" – meaning the reporters who have been at practice every day and have been observing the rules. Harbaugh likes guys who come to work every day.

He has a funny way of turning things around on a questioner; perhaps 'funny' is the wrong word, it's very coach-like. The "disrespectful to you guys" comment reminds me of something he said in a press conference last year. I forget exactly what the question was, but his response went [something like] "Well, that's part of what makes the NFL so great. It's a privilege to coach in the NFL, I know our players feel like it's a privilege to play in the NFL, and I imagine for you guys it's a privilege to cover the NFL." You could almost feel the reports shuffle and murmur in the room; I wonder how often they think of it that way.
(No link, sorry.)

The Baltimore Sun has the same story:

Harbaugh wasn't as pleased with two members of ESPN the Magazine, who watched practice while lying down in one end zone. Harbaugh finally barked at the two and had them removed.

Chris Mortensen has almost the same story; I was wondering how the 4-letter itself would cover it:

John Harbaugh blistered some freelance photographers for breaking a rule Sunday. If you observe the Baltimore Ravens on the practice field, you don't sit, you stand. Soon, they were escorted from the field.
For the players, there is no standing around. A few moments after giving the heave-ho to the photographers, Harbaugh directed his fire at his offense...

Ah. They were not a crew from ESPN The Magazine. They were freelancers. Sure, ESPN.

Anyway, that's beautiful. Throw the bums out! Let's have ESPN thrown out everywhere.

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Book Club

Football has not historically produced the same volume of literature that baseball has. Is there any football book as "famous" as Boys of Summer or Behind the Mask or Ball 4 etc etc etc? And yet as the NFL continues its monolithic march, dominating all forms of media and indeed every waking moment of our lives, its ubiquity is starting to trickle down to that least-techy of mediums, the humble book.

It's that time of the year – football publishing season! As pads start to crack, we get the swarm of offerings aimed at separating a few bux from the devoted fan, who needs a fix to get thru this last month before the real games start. Most sports books are crap, but here's a few that I found excellent, really rewarding.

Football Outsiders Almanac 2009

I picked this up just a few days ago. I'm very impressed. I did not expect so imposing a publication. It's ~550 pages long! 40+ pages of intro and discussion of methods; team essays at ~8 pages per; ~150 pages of player notes; ~60 pages of college ball; ~25 pages of research articles; 20 pages of appendices.

In form and content it is the direct heir of the old Bill James Baseball Abstracts. In tone too. That's a compliment: I loved those old books. This seems exactly like one of those, transposed into the key of football.
(There's a moment in an episode of House, season 2 or 3 I think, where House walks into Wilson's office and Wilson has his feet up and is reading one of the old Baseball Abstracts. Awesome.)

I've only absorbed a small portion of the book so far. As you'd expect, I started with the Ravens piece and a Joe Flacco capsule. I'm not quite ready to declare the book as good as the old Bill James Abstracts. But that's the intellectual lineage; and it predisposes me to like it. My initial impression of the book is like my impression of the Outsiders site itself: extremely interesting and entertaining, and perhaps not quite humble enough in the face of how much we can't know about football.

(As some kind of barometer of my objectivity, I should mention that I found two errors about Flacco's TD's last season in two separate places, the Ravens essay in the early part of the book and the Flacco capsule later. Not the same error repeated, but two different errors. And I don't quite agree with the prediction for the Ravens season, I think there are some gaps in the writer's logic. So when you read my "humble enough" comment above, you may choose to take that with a grain of salt.)

I did not realize the Almanac would be so hefty. I anticipated something in the, I dunno, 100-150 page range. PDF is nice because you get it instantly; but there's an actual bound-and-printed version, and I think next time I'll go for that. I'd like to read it in bed, dip into it over a couple weeks and have it around to refer to, without having to boot up my laptop.

The book is $12 in PDF, available at their online store – the bound version is there too, and also I think on Zon, for $22.

I'm really enjoying the book. As I continue reading it, I am more and more reminded of the old Abstracts. I mean, they've stolen everything. Lofty stuff like approach, methods, goals – even their site's name is an homage to something James wrote – and detailed stuff like how the book is organized, and the kinds of quippy things he said about players. And they've done a fantastic job. You'd think I'd object when I notice just how much they've stolen from my hero; I'm the same guy who usually hates cover versions of old songs I used to love, or movie remakes, or TV series adaptations from movies, etc etc. But instead as I read it I can only admire: the book, the game-charting project and the wealth of information flowing from it, etc.


A Few Seconds of Panic: A Sportswriter Plays in the NFL by Stefan Fatsis (2008)

When I asked above if there was any football book as famous as some of the classic baseball books, the one book in the back of my mind was Paper Lion (1966). It was subtitled "Confessions of a Last-String Quarterback": George Plimpton modeled (or invented?) the new participatory journalism by joining the Lions in training camp and playing QB in an intra-squad game.

40 years later, the NFL is a very different place. Writer Stefan Fatsis, who has been a contributor to Slate & The Atlantic & NY Times & SI, joined the Broncos for their 2006 training camp, as a kicker. This is a much more serious endeavor than Plimpton's was. Fatsis is less interested in showcasing his literary graces, and more interested in capturing "the physical and emotional realities of playing in the NFL."

He blows it out of the water. This is essential reading for the fan who wants to know "what it's like": this is what it's like. From small revelations like the strength & conditioning coach telling Fatsis "70% of your job is in here", to profiles of players and Mike Shanahan, this book is consistently fascinating. Along the way Fatsis manages to convey the strong impression that playing in the NFL is exactly the kind of job environment I would hate. Wow, such pressure.


The GM: A Football life, a Final Season, and a Last Laugh by Tom Callahan (2007)

Originally subtitled "The Inside Story of a Dream Job and the Nightmares that Go with It" when it was released in 2007, this is Callahan's profile of GM Ernie Accorsi, who retired from the game after the 2006 season. Accorsi had also been GM of the Baltimore Colts for two years in the early 80s (so he drafted John Elway) and of the Browns from 85 to 92 (so he hired Marty Schottenheimer, then replaced him with Bud Carson).

The book has an interesting structure, split into two storylines going thru alternate chapters. The odd-numbered chapters detail the ups-and-downs of the Giants 2006 season. The even-numbered chapters detail Accorsi's career, starting wth his time in the sports publicity dept at Penn St in the 60's, thru joining the Colts in the 70s, assuming their GM job, etc.

Initially I was not super-interested in the 2006 story: I'm not a Giants fan, not an Eli fan, this seemed to me to be tacked-on to the real substance of the book, in order to lend some currency so the average fan might buy it. However, this team did wind up winning the Super Bowl after the 2007 season, the year after Accorsi retired, so that storyline wound up having more interest than I expected. I had not realized how devastated by injury the 2006 Giants had been; after reading this, their championship seemed much more understandable.

The real thread of interest to me was the storyline of Accorsi's career, especially his time in Baltimore. Accorsi (thru Callahan) drops some nuggets about the Elway trade: the blockbuster that he'd gotten a tacit agreement from Elway to sign with the Colts after the fuss died down, before owner Irsay (may he rot in Hell) traded Elway out from under Accorsi; and Accorsi's belief that were it not for that trade, the Colts would likely still be in Baltimore (season ticket sales had spiked up after the draft).

I don't think you have to be a Baltimore fan to find this stuff interesting. It also talks about the Browns, and Schottenheimer, and Kosar, and scouting QBs, and building teams, and what makes the Giants organization classy, and all sorts of things. Accorsi's career spanned the growth of the NFL, from mom-&-pop operation in the 60s to the megalithic construct it is today; he has a lot of insight into the common threads that generate success across decades.

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What To Expect From Michael Turner

A couple of weeks ago Chris emailed me asking how I thought Michael Turner would do in 2009. A number of thoughts went through my head, mostly in response to some of the issues he raised in the email. Eventually I replied something to the effect of 'I have a lot of thoughts about this, do you mind if I blog it instead?'. He didn't mind, but I think he expected my article sometime before never. This morning he sent out a similar email to the whole crew this time, and with a little more urgency as he had some kind of fantasy thingy and the answer to this question weighed heavily on his fantasy strategy. What ensued was a series of emails from the four of us.


Chris On my [draft] board, Steven Jackson is higher than Michael Turner. How much of an idiot am I for that?

Jim I assume the Jackson vs Turner thing is driven by gut instinct? Can't argue with it: you could easily turn out to be right. If you want some rationalizations, Jackson is a year+ younger than Turner, and did not have 370+ carries last year.

Chris The "Curse of 370" is a part of it, yeah. Other factors I'm tossing around in my head in no particular order that have me thinking this way:

- Jackson is running behind a newly beefed up OL. His OL was one of the worst in the bigs and he still managed 4.1/carry, now he's got Smith and Brown on there to help out.
- Jackson gets catches as well as carries. Bulger has no receivers, and you know Boller will check down too.
- Turner got a ridiculous work-load last year. It's almost impossible for me to see him getting 375 carries again this year.
- ATL's OL last year was supposed to be horrible and played out of their minds. Regression this year?
- ATL in general played out of their minds. Regression this year?
- Turner scorched the bad teams. Of his 1,700 yards and 17 TDs, almost 800 of them (47%) and 7 of them (41%) came against Detroit, KC, GB, Oak, and StL...31% of the games. And he scored 4 TDs on 117 yards against Carolina as well. He had 6 games where he had 70 or fewer rushing yards, averaging 57 yards per game in them and scoring two TDs in them. Six games where he scored no TDs.
- Tougher schedule for ATL this year than they had last year. The NFCE is on their plate.
- Playoff schedule: Turner - NO, @NYJ, Buff Jackson - @ Tenn (no Haynesworth), Hou, @ AZ

Also weighing on me is that Jackson has had injuries these past two years. But I think both years we knew that he was aching prior to the start of the season. Maybe I'm wrong about that? I don't remember. Either way, it's a concern. But 376 carries for Turner, plus another 18 in the post-season. Ugh... That's so much work. I feel almost like Turner's as much of an injury risk as Jackson is...

Patrick You think 41% of someone’s yards coming in 5 games is unusual? I sure don’t, I’ll bet that is very typical.

I don’t have much of an opinion on Jackson you might be trying to be a little too clever. I doubt it matters much which you pick but I think you are trying to carve a conclusion out of cherry-picked information.

Chris The TDs is probably usual. But it wasn't 41%, it was 47% of his yards. I don't particularly think it's unusual to have ups and downs, everyone has that. And yeah, it's cherry-picking to an extent. I'm just very scared of the overworked factor.

One of the reasons is probably because I've been burned by it before. I've been the unlucky owner of Larry Johnson and Shaun Alexander coming off their huge seasons, as well as Jamal Lewis off his.

The one thing I can't get over though... The only way I don't see Turner having a big decrease in effectiveness is if the Falcons use him far less than they did last year. There's almost no chance he can go another 350+ carries at the levels he had last year, right? Even if he continues to get 4.5/carry, if they only feed it to him 300 times to keep him "fresh," that's 1,350 yards. Good, but nowhere near where I think people expect him to be, and probably not good enough for the #2 overall pick. His TDs likely also go down in that scenario, and he has absolutely no value as a receiver. So naturally, Steven Jackson getting 1,200 yards on the ground and another 350 in the air is more valuable than Turner getting 1,350 on the ground.

It's not that I think Turner will suck. He's still top 5 on my FFL backs. I just think Jackson's gonna have a bigger year. And quite frankly, I think the risk of Jackson crippling my fantasy team is lower than the risk Turner does it (a function of my "being burned" before)...

The Other James I honestly don't have a resounding negative take on Turner, other than: the 370 rule, regression to the norm, and the fact that defensive coordinators now have a year of tape to study in the offseason. I still expect him to have a strong year, though.

With Jackson, I do believe last year was still affected by bigger injuries suffered the year before, as well as horrendous overall team play (line, QB injuries, etc.) There's a new coach in town, and the players seem to love the new tone. The core of the team seems to be healthy at the moment. I haven't heard anything about any nagging injuries to Jackson and he's seemed strong in workouts. He has a longer track record of strong play than Turner, but that isn't always a big deal.

Patrick I don’t know why you’d expect Jackson to get 1200 on the ground. Three of his last four years have been astonishingly similar, apart from games played.

237 – 253 carries, 1002 – 1046 yards, 5 – 8 TDs, 38 – 43 rec., 271 – 379 yards, 1 – 2 TDs.

If you ask yourself, ‘self, what kind of a year can I expect from Steven Jackson’, the answer should be pretty clear. Could he have a better year than Turner? Of course. Will he? I have no idea. I think a lot of your arguments with respect to Turner are questionable. I don’t know what the mean performance for Atlanta should be but I am pretty sure that last year was much closer than 2007. Excepting ’07, the Falcons finished 5th, 3rd, 1st, and 2nd in rushing attempts the last five years, with similar rankings for yards and touchdowns. On the other hand, St. Louis finished 30th, 29th, 23rd, 24th, and 28th in attempts the last five years. Regardless of the relative philosophies of Mike Smith and Steve Spagnowhatever it is pretty clear that St. Louis is built to pass while Atlanta is built to run.

As far as Turner’s workload, I agree that it will likely be diminished but I think a lot of the rule of 370 is nonsense anyway, that prior injury is a much stronger indicator of future decline, and in that area Jackson is the champ. The thing with 370 is that if you look at their list, age is the stronger corrolator than number of carries. In the case of Johnson, et al, they had all come off multiple seasons of heavy workloads and were at an advanced age in running back years. I don’t know what Turner’s true “running back age” is but it certainly isn’t as old as Jackson’s despite the large number of carries last year. Jackson has 1200 carries and (at least) four injuries that have cost him games over the last five years. Turner has half as many carries and 1-2 injuries (he may not have been active for his entire rookie season). They have both played in the NFL the same number of years.

Chris The "aside from games played" is one important piece of this. '05 and '06 were a little out there on either side. '05 is closer to his normal performance, but that was over 15 games whereas '07 and '08 were over 12 games. He got 20 carries per game on average the last two years. If he stays healthy, that's 320 this year, and even if you give him 4.1 per carry which is his career low that's over 1,300 yards on the ground this year. The past two and three of the last four he's averaged 325 receiving, not counting his '06 season which was off the charts ridiculous...I don't expect 2,300 combined this season of course.

Yeah they were built to pass more than run, but I think that's more a result of the coaching than anything else. Plus Torry Holt and that whole era being held over. Bruce just went last year, now Holt, and Spags is saying he's going to focus far more on the running game this season.

That said, the "overall mileage" on Turner is less than Jackson and lack of prior injury is also a big factor. The main reason I'm still even considering this is cause Jackson's missed 4 games each of the last two years.

I just sorta feel like they're both gonna wind up with around 300 carries, and that Turner will have the higher per carry avg but Jackson will have the receiving yards.

FWIW, Jamal wasn't advanced age when he came off his 2,000 yard season. He was 24 or 25 years old. LJ was 28/29, but he had only had one year prior to his ridiculous 416 carry season where he was the primary runner, so he wasn't high mileage.

BTW, I think one of the reasons the Falcons finished '04 through '06 5th or better for rushing attempts was because Vick had over 100 attempts each of those years. He made up 20% - 25% of the team's rushing attempts those seasons. I don't think it was that they were built for running as much as they had a QB that liked to run. With that said, I think they're still set up to run this year.

Patrick Lewis had already missed an entire year with a knee before his record-setting year. That’s like 7 dog years right there. Johnson was run into the ground his ‘one year’. You may recall that Priest got hurt halfway through and that Johnson only started the last nine games. In those games he averaged 29 carries with a low of 22. In his first 25 starts Johnson averaged 27 carries/game. Herm Edwards should be shot for punishing him like that and Peterson should have been fired before giving him another contract after that abuse. Last year Turner averaged 23 carries/game which is too many, but it isn’t a LOT too many. Get him down to 20 carries/game and we are talking about a very sustainable 320 att/year. Johnson is interesting because he presents a close precedent for Turner, a talented back who backed up a Hall of Famer (or near HoFer) for a few years before getting his opportunity. I don’t recall any other elite backs who followed this path, most are used and used up by the time they hit 27.

It doesn’t really matter if Spagnuolo wants to run or not. For three straight years Marinelli ‘pounded the rock’ (his words), they fired Martz to further emphasize the run. They finished 32, 32, and 31 in rushes during his tenure. When your team is down two scores you aren’t going to be rushing nearly as much as when your team is up two scores. We all know this. IMO the Rams (or Raiders) are the worst team in the NFL. Jackson is a good running back, even a great talent, but I wonder what kind of opportunity he will get. To his credit he is a three down back, and will get receptions to augment his carries, but to what extent they replace the carries that Turner gets as a natural product of being part of an offense that is not only going to emphasize the run, but will also be able to execute the run is somewhat questionable.

Substitute Vick’s attempts for something on the high end of normal, like 50 carries (Philip Rivers/Matt Ryan level) and the Falcons are still top ten in attempts each of those years.

Chris Good point on the Falcons.

I'm smelling another blog article with "elite backs underutilized till later in their career." DeAngelo might qualify although he was running behind Stephen Davis who is anything but a near Hall of Famer. Maybe Jamal Anderson running behind Heyward (another non-entity)? Though that was only for two seasons. Rudi Johnson for two and a half years behind Dillon maybe.


The Other James Don't forget that they also had Duckett and/or Norwood, too. They went with Dunn as the small quick back and Duckett/Norwood as the bowling ball quite a bit. Duckett/Norwood had at least 100 carries each during that span (OK, so Duckett had 99... close enough for a rounding error). They were getting a good 370+ carries a season out of their primary RB pair without Vick's 100 or so on top. So, it's a little bit of both--a running team with a running QB, in net producing huge running stats.

Jim Remember my little "study" on peak years for football players? RB's peaked at around age 24.

(I remember James had a methodological concern, wanted to see averages in addition to whatever I put in my table. Maybe I'll redo it with the most recent PFR data.)

Not sure why you would dis Stephen Davis, he was a 3-time Pro Bowler. Scored 17 TDs one year; led the league in rushing attempts another year, in one of his non- Pro Bowl seasons.

Chris Well, he wasn't good in Carolina after DeAngelo, but I got his name mixed up with DeShaun Foster who was horrendous. No excuse for Foster getting those touches instead of DeAngelo.


~

So all-in-all we conclude nothing, and Chris wound up taking Steven Jackson.

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Favre: "Look at me! Hey! I'm over here! Look!"

In what seems like ages ago now, some optimistic blogger wrote:

[Vick signing with the Eagles] is going to become the new media obsession. His first practice, first preseason game, the time he'll have to sit out, the reinstatement, the first regular season game. We're going to hear about it all. In all things, there is an upside, though--at least we won't get anymore stories about Brett Favre's un-re-un-re-un-re-un-re-tirement for a while.

Well, it was true. For all of 3 days. Thank you, Jay Glazer, for picking at this scab.

Favre is clearly one of the better QBs in NFL history, and he's a no-brainer to be a first ballot Hall of Famer. And this is coming from a guy who watched Favre burn his favorite team more times than he can count over the past 15 years. I'm no fanboi. But unless time travel is finally available and the Vikings get the mid- to late-90s era Favre, this really isn't going to be a major impact to the bottom line.

Favre is the type of QB who can go out and single-handedly win you a couple of games you had no business winning. Last year's 6 TD performance against the Cardinals is a case in point--the Jets give up 35 points at home, yet win running away. There is no doubt that Favre can still have a similar effect for the Vikings a year later, and perhaps give the Vikings another one or two wins in games they had no business winning.

He's also capable of producing some absolute clunkers. He was dreadful down the stretch for the Jets last year. Even if we give him the benefit of the doubt for his injury (which is pretty generous considering he hasn't recovered yet and still hasn't met Brian Urlacher on the field this season), he's turned in some memorable collapses in recent years when the stakes were highest: the 6 INT performance against the Rams during the 2001 playoffs or the 4 INT performance against the Vikings during the 2004 playoffs, for starters. How about the INT in overtime at home against the Giants in his last playoff game?

Here's the bottom line: Favre wearing Viking horns will result in the Purple winning a couple of games they shouldn't have won. It will also result in the Purple losing a couple of games they shouldn't have lost. The end result will be a wash--a couple ecstatic victories for a couple of agonizing losses.

If the Vikings go anywhere this year, it is going to be on the strength of the defense and the dynamic power of their running game. Those are traditionally a pretty strong basis for a championship team. Sage Rosenfels, the starting QB of the current 10 minutes (at least), isn't going to make anyone flash back to the days of Fran Tarkenton. But he's likely to be acceptable enough to pull a Trent Dilfer for the team and give them a shot.

One could debate the analogy between Rosenfels and Dilfer, but that would sort of be like arguing who you'd rather have save your life if you needed emergency surgery: Frank Burns or Nick Riviera. If you're in that situation in the first place, you've done something horribly, horribly wrong, and that's what the Vikings have managed to do to themselves at QB during the Brad Childress era. Luckily for the Ravens, it worked out with Dilfer. It remains to be seen if it will with the Vikings, or if they'll go with another doctor entirely with Favre, the football equivalent of Dr. Jekyll (and Mr. Hyde).

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Surprising no one, Vick returns to the NFL

The big NFL news of the day is Michael Vick signing with Philly.

It should be of no surprise that someone signed Vick. Of course someone would--as much as the NFL (and its fans) would like to think that at some point, character issues outweigh tantalizing talent, the reality is that when you get a player that is as captivating as Vick is when he's at his best then he's going to find someone who will turn a blind eye to it. On a side note, it'll be interesting to see how Vick does in Philadelphia, the city that booed Santa Claus. I expect to see plenty of dog collars on the Beagles... uh... Eagles fans this season.

But this isn't about Vick's character issues, whether he should or should not be allowed to play again, or which Philly fan will be the first one to sing "Who Let The Dogs Out?" when Vick hits the field. No, this post is about what Philadelphia is actually going to do with him on the roster.

The obvious and quick answer is that Kevin Kolb sprained his knee so the Eagles need to line up another backup QB. But Kolb's knee isn't expected to be season-ending, and AJ Feeley is tolerable enough to fill the gap.

The NFL is a copycat league... and this year, the cat being copied is going to be a wild one--the trendy Wildcat formation that Miami had so much success with last season. In the Wildcat, the snap goes directly to the running back. Really, what better role is there for Vick? We all know his running ability, and as a passer he has one of the strongest arms in the league (though with accuracy that approaches Shaq at the free throw line some days).

You don't sign a player with Vick's talent if you don't intend to use it, and you don't sign a player with Vick's baggage if you don't intend to try to get something positive in return for the distraction it brings to the team. McNabb is still clearly the starter, so there has to be another way to get Vick on the field. Getting him a few plays a game in situations designed just for him seems to be a good way to get him back into the speed of the NFL game. Andy Reid is certainly capable of figuring out a way to get the most of Vick.

So, the bottom line for Vick? A few rushes, a few passes, and probably a few highlight reel runs in the process. Lots of mocking in every stadium he plays in, including his home field. Dog collars thrown at him in Dallas, snowballs thrown at him in Philly. It's a shame he won't get to play against Cleveland and the Dawg Pound.

This is going to become the new media obsession. His first practice, first preseason game, the time he'll have to sit out, the reinstatement, the first regular season game. We're going to hear about it all. In all things, there is an upside, though--at least we won't get anymore stories about Brett Favre's un-re-un-re-un-re-un-re-tirement for a while.

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