Lamar Jackson's 4th-quarter struggles greatly exaggerated

One of the smartest sports fans of my acquaintance emails me after the Ravens loss to the Raiders on Monday Night Football the other night.  Late in the email he says this:

Lamar also reminds me of Ben Simmons. Both have had obvious struggles when they have to shoot/pass in the 4th Q against good teams.

It may not shock you that I have a quibble.

The comparison is bullshit. The notion that Lamar has trouble passing when the team needs him to – that he struggles compared with other QBs – has never been true, going back to his much-maligned rookie playoff appearance. It's false. It's entirely a creation of "narrative".

▪ In the 2018 playoff game (when Lamar became the youngest QB in league history to start a playoff game), in the 4th Q against Joey Bosa & Melvin Gordon & Derwin James et al, Lamar threw for 169 yds and 2 TDs for a passer rating of 116.5. Had the ball with a chance to win at the end.

▪ The other game they Lamar lost as a starter in 2018 was at KC. Lamar had a passer rating of 109 in the 4th Q & OT combined, with one TD.
One of the incompletions was a huge bomb right into the hands of WR Chris Moore in the end zone for the potential game-winner in OT. Moore dropped it (he was also interfered with). Lamar was knocked out of the game late in OT – RG3 mopped up the loss.

▪ In the 2019 playoff game against the Titans, in the 4th Q Lamar threw for 150 yds and a TD while his teammates dropped 7 passes.

Not a lot of examples of reg-season games from 2019 where Lamar "had to shoot/pass in the 4th Q", but there are these two:

▪ In the 2019 reg season game they lost vs the Chiefs, in the 4th Q Lamar threw for 150 yds.
▪ In the 2019 reg season game they lost to the Brownies (so, not a good team), in the 4th Q Lamar threw for 170 yds with 2 TDs.

In 2020 I think Lamar was somewhat washed after covid. His timing looked off to me, and I think they were managing his practice snaps. But obviously Lamar looked ok on Monday Night Football when he had to pass in the 4th Q against the Brownies (a fairly good team this time). In the 4th – outside of the trip to the bathroom – Lamar completed 87% with 11.8 yards-per and the TD for a passer rating of 155.2.

▪ In the 2020 playoff game in Buffalo:

Josh Allen had 5.6 yards-per-attempt for about 200 passing yards, total. Allen had the kind of game critics rip Lamar for having. Conditions were brutal: the wind interfered with Josh Allen's and Lamar's passes. And Justin mothafucken Tucker missed two FGs! That seriously should be all you need to know. MVP candidate Josh Allen led his team to 10 points of offense. Lamar had a better yards-per-attempt than Josh Allen, but he was running for his life behind awful pass pro, and eventually got knocked out of the game chasing a bad snap.

That loss to Buffalo was used as confirmation of a lot of priors. If you already "knew" that Lamar can't throw when he needs to against a good team, then that game proved it. But Josh Allen also couldn't throw thru the wind that day. *AND* Justin Tucker couldn't kick. Justin Tucker!
(Also the Bills kicker, who I've never heard of, missed two FGs too.)
The wind inhibited every scoring unit on the field that day. Not everything has to be a referendum on whether Lamar can play the position. A lot of the things that happen with Lamar, happen with other QBs too.

If you look over the list above it may strike you that I doth protest too much; missing the forest for the trees. That I'm cherry-picking a few random examples, isolated instances where Lamar had decent Q4 stats in one category or another. That may seem like a poor way to make a logical argument. The thing is, that list above represents most of the times Lamar & the Ravens have trailed in the 4th quarter! Lamar's win% as a starter is .789; the Ravens have led the league in scoring across the two seasons Lamar has been the full-time starter. There have been damn few times the Ravens have even been in that 4th-quarter-trailing situation. Ths list isn't cherry-picked, it's nearly exhaustive. (But see the next section.)

This narrative that Lamar struggles to pass in the 4th quarter when his team needs him to, is absolutely false. It's a fabrication; a misrepresentation. What has happened is that the Ravens have struggled to protect Lamar in the pocket, esp in playoff games (2018 and 2020). That has had exactly the effect on the quarterback play as it always does: same thing we saw this past Super Bowl when the Bucs beat Mahomes; or back in 2007 when the Giants beat the Imperfect Pats in the Super Bowl; or WAY back when the '85 Bears clobbered the league. Batter the QB and the passing game falters.

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There *ARE* things to be worried about with Lamar. If you want to be an informed Lamar-watcher, here's what to look for.

Last season, it looked to me like the pass-pro troubles got into Lamar's head early. The first two opponents (Brownies & Texans) were bad teams with good pass rushes – the Brownies brought a lot of ressure, though they didn't quite get there; Houston sacked him 4 times. Lamar stopped trusting the pocket; and maybe he felt some pressure to justify the MVP award. You could almost see a thought balloon over his head, "This is supposed to be easy!" I think he started pressing real hard.

Approximately games 3 thru 7, Lamar looked like he was trying to make a 10-pt play every snap. Whatever the opposite is of calm efficient football, that's what Lamar was playing. He would skip easy completions, instead looking for big plays; and he would run himself into trouble. His mechanics went to absolute shit. His dropbacks were sloppy; his throwing stance was all over the place. He dirted one against the Eagles in week 6 that was a truly embarassing throw to a wide-open guys. The whole production was painful to watch. They still won three of those games, but Lamar looked bad.

Lamar finally played a good, efficiently-quarterbacked game against Indy in November. Maybe he got his head on straight? Then they went to New England and played in a monsoon. Posted a 99 passer rating, which was pretty good for the conditions. And then Lamar got covid. An eventful season.

At the deepest depths of his run of bad play, he would look at an open receiver, then double-check or triple-check before finally throwing. Hesitate. You'd see receivers slow in the window, have to wait for the ball. On one pass, Lamar threw so late on a deep ball to Hollywood Brown, that Brown couldn't catch it without going out the back of the end zone. In 2019, Lamar had been awesome in the "quick game"; decisive and effective. He lost that in 2020. Early, it looked like he didn't trust the pocket enough to settle and throw; middle, it looked like he didn't trust his eyes; late, he was post-covid and just looked overall out of sync.

So – don't get distracted by any nonsense about Lamar can't read defenses or is inaccurate or can't throw deep or to the sideline or whatever. None of that has ever been true.
(Post-covid, when he was suffering arm cramps etc, some of it may have been true. But it's not his normal state.)
Instead, look for hints that Lamar is trying to do it all himself. That he doesn't trust his pass-pro, that he doesn't trust his receivers, etc. He starts falling back on Hero Ball.

There were hints on Monday night that it might be happening. That rushing fumble might have been an occasion of trying to do too much. Also there were three or four passes where Lamar double-clutched. Not a pump fake: he started to throw and then changed his mind. Why? Without All-22, can't tell if that was a reasonable & logical reaction to something the defense did, or if Lamar was starting to hesitate again.

There were also positive signs for the Ravens passing offense. The stats look like the Raiders D worked hard to take away Mark Andrews. Passes to TEs netted just 3.3 yards per target. Maybe that explains the double-clutching? Lamar spotting an unexpected double-team, or an underneath LB or something? But on the positive side, on throws to WRs Monday, Lamar went 11 of 16 (69%) for 171 yards (10.7 yards-per) and a TD, which would give a passer rating of 124.7. Even better if you look at just the top 2 guys, Watkins & Hollywood. Lamar was a perfect 6 for 6 to Hollywood Brown. Over the offseason the Ravens have talked about the necessity for being about to attack other areas of the field when teams clog the middle against them. The game 1 WR stats might be an indicator that they're doing that successfully? Or maybe it's just a fluke.

Plays like THIS, while awesome, will not tell you if Lamar is playing well:

https://mobile.twitter.com/BaldyNFL/status/1437923008388153349

That's an Aaron Rodgers -esque play; but honestly Lamar can make plays like that in his sleep. He basically turns into Aaron Rodgers after 4 secs in the pocket. But, *having* to make plays like that all the time is evidence of a problem: either pass-pro or Lamar not throwing on time. You'll know Lamar is sharp when he's getting rid of the ball on 3- and 5-step drops, on-time (maybe with one hitch), for completions. Not necessarily every play, but often enough to keep the defense off-balance.

---

Last year (2020) Lamar played the worst game of his career at home against the Chiefs. Brutal, ugly, horrible game. Yards-per-attempt below 3.5! Eeyugh.

Puttting out a "Lamar has always played great in the 4th quarter!" post the weekend of their rematch against the Chiefs is a little bit of an exposed position:

• The Chiefs back-7 defenders, Tyrann Mathieu & co, have shown they know what they're doing against Lamar.
• Frank Clark is expected back for this game, against a Ravens OL that was already shaky.
• Ravens All-Pro LT Ronnie Stanley is expected to miss the game! Complications with his ankle.
• The chances of Lamar falling prey to the temptations of Hero Ball, with Mahomes on the other sideline, are alarmingly high.

The Ravens could very easily get blown off the field.

But I wanted to be on record before the game, about what we're actually seeing when the Ravens win or when they lose; what's actually happening when Lamar plays well or when he doesn't. If Chris Jones & Frank Clark are crashing thru the Ravens pass-pro with ease and living in the backfield – if Lamar is getting about 1.1 seconds to throw – then let's acknowledge that's happening. Lamar is subject to the same hits and pressures as other QBs are.

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Do we KNOW that John Harbaugh is a good coach?

The commentariat at Football Outsiders is a knowledgeable and interesting set of cats. Excellent discussion in the comments on their articles. One guy whom I respect comments there frequently, under the handle "theslothook". He posted this, as part of a wide-ranging discussion after Josh Allen's contract extension was announced:

Ill ask you as a Ravens fan, are we so certain we KNOW that John Harbaugh is a good coach? On the face of it, it looks absurd but if you peek at his predecessor, you see almost the same kinds of teams Harbaugh was fielding prior to Lamar.
Since the begining of the cosmos until very recently, the Ravens have had the same combination of
1) Great Defense,
2) Great Special Teams,
3) Sometimes great run game
4) Cover your eyes awful passing games.
And its instructive to see under Harbaugh's watch, the passing game go from ok to horrible and stay that way. I am genuinely curious if Ravens fans can look at this and wonder, does any of this go beyond the coach? Because it sure does for me.

As you might imagine my reply is way, way, WAY too long to be appropriate for a comment thread. I put it here instead – maybe he'll read it. 🙂 

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PFF names someone other than Lamar the 2019 MVP (and Jim freaks out)

One of my favorite pieces of sports analysis ever, is a piece that Bill James wrote in the mid-80s on Andre Dawson winning the National League MVP award over Ozzzie Smith.

That piece is reprinted in Bill James' collection This Time Let's Not Eat The Bones. I don't see a version of it online. This link is NOT that piece; it's a piece by Dave Fleming, dated from 2017, about the way MVP voters have looked at various candidates over the years. It's an interesting read with similar points. But the Bill James piece – ! That was an absolutely savage, poisonous takedown of the MVP voters for giving the award to the leader in RBI, over a far more deserving candidate. It was a passionate cry for a newer smarter method of analysis.

I don't see how anyone could read that, and not come away at the very least with a determination never EVER to uncritically use one “master stat” to select an MVP. Look broadly at all the available evidence. No single all-encompassing Big Number is the be-all end-all of the “best player” discussion. The guy who leads the league in RBi is not automatically the best player.

 Switching over to El Futbol Americaine, we're not going to say that the guy who led the league in TD passes or DVOA or whatever, is automatically the MVP. Today is a wonderful time to be an analytically-minded football fan. We got more sophisticated & intelligent methods now than we've ever had before. It's awesome. BUT! The fancy analytical methods are guides that can help us see things; none of them is The Answer.

Which brings us to PFF's selection for League MVP  of

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I've recently been following Kansas City Royals discussion boards following their loss to the Giants.

Fans are mostly putting on brave faces. "We had a great year". "If anyone had told me in April that the Royals would lose a World Series that came down to the final at bat I would have been ecstatic".

While those sentiments are true from some hypothetical fan-value perspective, I am certain that unless the Royals manage to actually win a World Series in the next few years, every fan of that team will feel that 2014 was the one that got away. No one will be proudly remembering their great run, they will be gnashing their teeth at something nearly achieved.

Winning in sports is hard. Winning championships that much harder.

While being a Lion fan hasn't lended itself to regrets in my lifetime, I can certainly think of fanbases who must feel like their team squandered great opportunities. The Eagles were probably the poster child for this in the '00s. The 49ers may be lining up as the next one.

Being a Viking fan must be particularly painful as they had some of the greatest teams in NFL history at the end of the '60s and into the '70s with no titles, only to come back in the '90s with more dominant teams that fell on their playoff faces. The Bills and Browns were legendary for disappointing their fans, and I'm not sure that the one Greatest Show champonship for the Rams really makes up for their repeated failures in the '70s and in the years since '99.

I'm not going to go out of my way to feel sorry for Royal Fan, or to root for that team to redeem their fans' collective faith. I've got my own disappointing teams to root for and my own pile of schadenfreude to collect.

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5 Year Record

In the table below, ties are broken by postseason wins, where applicable, under the theory that one postseason win is worth more than one reg season win. It's a slightly greater accomplishment. Thus Indy is listed ahead of the Steelers, and the Giants over the Chargers. Ties remaining after that are broken by the most recent reg season record, under the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately theory. Thus Panthers ahead of Dolphins; likewise Lions over Raiders, and Bills over Buccs over Skins.

For comparison, last season's list is here.

Team	Reg season							Post season							Grand Total
	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	Sum		2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	Sum
New England Patriots	10	14	13	12	12	61				2	1	1	4		65
Green Bay Packers	11	10	15	11	8.5	55.5			4		1		5		60.5
New Orleans Saints	13	11	13	7	11	55		3		1		1	5		60
Baltimore Ravens	9	12	12	10	8	51		1	1	1	4		7		58
San Francisco 49ers	8	6	13	11.5	12	50.5				1	2	2	5		55.5
Indianapolis Colts	14	10	2	11	11	48		2				1	3		51
Pittsburgh Steelers	9	12	12	8	8	49			2				2		51
Atlanta Falcons	9	13	10	13	4	49					1		1		50
Denver Broncos	8	4	8	13	13	46				1		2	3		49
Seattle Seahawks	5	7	7	11	13	43			1		1	3	5		48
New York Giants	8	10	9	9	7	43				4			4		47
San Diego Chargers	13	9	8	7	9	46						1	1		47
New York Jets	9	11	8	6	8	42		2	2				4		46
Chicago Bears	7	11	8	10	8	44			1				1		45
Cincinnati Bengals	10	4	9	10	11	44							0		44
Philadelphia Eagles	11	10	8	4	10	43							0		43
Dallas Cowboys	11	6	8	8	8	41		1					1		42
Houston Texans	9	6	10	12	2	39				1	1		2		41
Arizona Cardinals	10	5	8	5	10	38		1					1		39
Minnesota Vikings	12	6	3	10	5.5	36.5		1					1		37.5
Tennessee Titans	8	6	9	6	7	36							0		36
Carolina Panthers	8	2	6	7	12	35							0		35
Miami Dolphins	7	7	6	7	8	35							0		35
Kansas City Chiefs	4	10	7	2	11	34							0		34
Detroit Lions	2	6	10	4	7	29							0		29
Oakland Raiders	5	8	8	4	4	29							0		29
Buffalo Bills	6	4	6	6	6	28							0		28
Tampa Bay Buccnrs	3	10	4	7	4	28							0		28
Washington Redskins	4	6	5	10	3	28							0		28
Jacksonville Jaguars	7	8	5	2	4	26							0		26
St. Louis Rams	1	7	2	7.5	7	24.5							0		24.5
Cleveland Browns	5	5	4	5	4	23							0		23

Seriously, who is at all surprised to see the Pats at the top of this list? What Bill Belichick has accomplished over the years is amazing. Five game ahead of the next closest team! Thirteen wins a year despite constant churn among receivers and TEs, and with a rebuilding project on D. It will be fascinating to see how that team handles the transition from Brady; but they have positioned themselves extremely well. Between Mallett and Garoppolo, one of those guys can probably play QB. Remembering Matt Cassell in 2008, it's hard to believe the Pats will miss a beat when they trot out one of those guys.

The top 3 just underlines why we regard those 3 QBs so highly: Peyton would be there too if he hadn't missed a year and changed teams.

Continuing on down the list, the top TWELVE teams are all organizations that have had unquestioned answers to their QB question. The list really emphasizes what a tautology it is in the NFL: winning = having a solution at QB = winning.

My rule of thumb is, any team with a grand total of 45 or over is doing something right. That's an average winning record, nine wins per year, in a league where winning at all (let alone winning consistently) is extremely difficult. These are the most successful organizations in the sport. The Bears are right at that line, the Jets just ahead and the Bengals just behind. Those are three interesting teams, and I think they illustrate something: perennially pretty good teams, but stuck in divisions with monsters (Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and the Ravens/Steelers). It's a tough way to live.

Note technically a total of 40.5 or better represents a “winning” record, barely. That would average out to 4 yrs of 8-8 and one year of 8-7-1. I personally think that is nothing to write home about: but it beats losing. These teams in the 41 to 44 win category are in a second tier. This year it's Cincy, the Pheagles, Cowboyz and Texans. Dallas lives here, which I find very satisfying. Cincy and Philly are are good teams with one bad year of the last 5 which drags them down. They'd have to win 11 or 12 games this year to climb out of this mid-range.

At the other end of the spectrum: the Brownies are an object lesson in the result of churning philosophies and leadership. They are six games behind the Raiders < shudder >. It seems safe to project them into the same spot next year; them or Jax. St Louis will make a big move up this list next year, when their 1-win 2009 season comes off the books. Detroit already made a big move up this year, as their oh-fer in '08 finally dropped off the books, and they will get another bounce next year (even if they have a weak season), as their 2-win 2009 comes off.

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Caldwell Apologeia

So I can't say I'm too excited by the Caldwell hire.  I will say that from a contrarian perspective, I'll bet he does much better than most people think.  Sentiment is fully against him.

 

Regardless though, I can't say I would have been very excited by any of the candidates.  Lovie was the only one who I liked and it doesn't appear that the Lions strongly considered him.  My dream was that the team trade a first round pick to the 49ers for Harbaugh a la the Belichick deal 15 years ago.

 

But as you all can tell from the subject, this email isn't to bury Caldwell, but rather to praise him so praise him I shall.

 

1.  I've had a philosophy for quite a while, mostly with personnel but also with coaching that if you don't trust management to make the right pick then your team of choice has much greater problems than the head coach.  This doesn't guarantee any kind of success with Caldwell, but it does presume that the team vetted him thoroughly and he was among their final choices.  It also presumes that management expects him to be successful.

2.  Caldwell's coaching prowess [sic] cannot be easily measured by the performance of his teams.  This isn't an endorsement of course, but more of a 'it's all under the hood' type of argument.  He was HC for Wake Forest and then the Colts late/post Manning.  It is notable that his first Colt team went 14-2 and lost in the Super Bowl.  You can count the number of Super Bowl coaches available for hire on zero fingers now that Whisenhunt, Lovie, and Caldwell are gone.  This team was among the worst in the league in yards allowed yet finished 8th in scoring defense.  They also finished 7th in scoring offense yet were a threat to go undefeated until they pulled Peyton at halftime with a multiscore lead and a 14-0 record.  This team also held Baltimore to 3 points in the Divisional round.

His second year the team went 10-6 as the defense fell apart.  His legacy from his Colt tenure marked more by his mind-numbing times out in the Wild Card game which led to a Jet FG and loss than by the Super Bowl appearance the year before.  And of course in year three he lost Peyton, most of his games, and ultimately his job.

3.  He isn't being asked to do a lot.  This isn't a team that needs rebuilding, it's a team that needs stability - precisely the type of team that he's already succeeded with.  The Lions need two things right now, discipline and ... errr .. discipline.  The first is to remain collected, not do stupid things, accept what comes.  Schwartz is a hothead.  A good coach, but a hothead and the team took its lead from him, committing countless stupid penalties, often at the worst times.  Merely having a coach who preaches calm should help here. 

The second discipline is between Stafford's ears.  I think everyone understands that Stafford has as much physical talent as any quarterback in the league.  What he hasn't developed is the mental acuity to exploit his physical advantages.  He recently told the press that he doesn't need a quarterback guru, to the dismay of - well - everyone.  Caldwell has a great record with quarterbacks.  He was quarterbacks coach with Penn State while Kerry Collins was there.  While he didn't have much success with his QBs at Wake Forest (notable only for Brian Kuklick) his time with Peyton Manning cannot be overlooked.  While it can be debated whether Caldwell influenced Manning's development, it cannot be debated that merely being in the presence of Peyton had to have helped Caldwell.  I think all Raven fans would agree that not only did he represent an enormous upgrade at OC when he came, but that he also brought something to Flacco or at least that he was able to deliver the offense to Flacco's skillset.  If he can duplicate this in Detroit, the team will be in the playoffs annually.

4.  He is fully qualified.  This isn't a Raheem Morris/Mike Tice type of hire.  This is a guy who has been a coordinator for multiple teams, a head coach for multiple teams.  It is impossible to argue that he's inexperienced for the job.  He may be incompetent - that remains to be seen - but if so it will be experienced incompetence.

5.  He's black.  This point really can't be underscored enough.  Black head coaches in the NFL have an excellent record overall.  The list is astonishingly short, of course, but also astonishingly successful.  Not count Fritz Pollard in 1921, and not counting interims, there have been 15 black NFL head coaches.  Of those 15 only Romeo Crennel, Mike Singletary and Raheem Morris failed to take their teams to the playoffs at least once.  Crennel and Morris both had 10 win seasons, Singletary an 8 win season.  Flores, Dungy and Tomlin each won Super Bowls while Lovie and Caldwell each lost one.  Additionally, Shell and Green (twice) took their teams to conference championships.

6.  Finally, he's learned.  I can't prove this of course, but I assume that everyone learns and that Caldwell couldn't have 'won' the interview without displaying skills that he may not have had in the past.  Stafford (and Bill Ford Jr) sat in on Caldwell's interview and Caldwell proceeded to break down film showing Stafford where he could have made better decisions in certain spots.  While Stafford may publicly deny the need for a quarterback whisperer, everyone welcomes a mentor when the situation presents.  If Caldwell can be a mentor to Stafford, if Caldwell can get Stafford to take that next step to disciplined player, then this hire will be a success and so will the team.

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It's Alive

Chris sent Zippy and I an email a few days ago. the OblongSpheroid domain is/was up for renewal and he was curious if we wanted to keep on. The last two years we've had a total of 15 blog posts, none since February.

Fair question.

Our fair answer was yes, of course. We have a lot of history here. And some day someone is really going to want to be called OblongSpheroid.com so why would we ever want to give that up?

I suppose though, to be a blog you ought to - you know - blog occasionally. I've noticed that most blogs go through the same lifecycle. A lot of passion followed by a period of less passionate effort simply to preserve the momentum, followed by tailing interest and inactivity. I've also seen the inevitable short-lived renaissances where the blogger will make great promises to resume blogging and maintain that pledge for a day or two.

The fact is, without the reward of feedback (or money) it is tough to believe that our words aren't merely vapor. I think it was an advantage for use to have three guys instead of one, because at least we were reading each others' posts and commenting. We have a couple of friends who follow the blog too and occasionally post. All of this could be accomplished via email, of course, and in the last couple of years that has been our main medium.

So here's a post. Going to keep the bar low, not promise a renaissance. Heck, won't even provide football content. Just a post about posting. A promise that the last post wasn't the last post and a further hope that this one isn't either.

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5 Year Record

Updated:

Team	Reg season							Post season							Grand Total
	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	Sum		2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	Sum
Baltimore Ravens	11	9	12	12	10	54		2	1	1	1	4	9		63
New England Patriots	11	10	14	13	12	60					2	1	3		63
Green Bay Packers	6	11	10	15	11	53				4		1	5		58
Pittsburgh Steelers	12	9	12	12	8	53		3		2			5		58
Atlanta Falcons	11	9	13	10	13	56						1	1		57
New Orleans Saints	8	13	11	13	7	52			3		1		4		56
New York Giants	12	8	10	9	9	48					4		4		52
Indianapolis Colts	12	14	10	2	11	49			2				2		51
San Francisco 49ers	7	8	6	13	11.5	45.5					1	2	3		48.5
New York Jets	9	9	11	8	6	43			2	2			4		47
Houston Texans	8	9	6	10	12	45					1	1	2		47
Chicago Bears	9	7	11	8	10	45				1			1		46
San Diego Chargers	8	13	9	8	7	45		1					1		46
Philadelphia Eagles	9.5	11	10	8	4	42.5		2					2		44.5
Dallas Cowboys	9	11	6	8	8	42			1				1		43
Denver Broncos	8	8	4	8	13	41					1		1		42
Minnesota Vikings	10	12	6	3	10	41			1				1		42
Tennessee Titans	13	8	6	9	6	42							0		42
Arizona Cardinals	9	10	5	8	5	37		3	1				4		41
Miami Dolphins	11	7	7	6	7	38							0		38
Cincinnati Bengals	4.5	10	4	9	10	37.5							0		37.5
Seattle Seahawks	4	5	7	7	11	34				1		1	2		36
Carolina Panthers	12	8	2	6	7	35							0		35
Washington Redskins	8	4	6	5	10	33							0		33
Tampa Bay Buccnrs	9	3	10	4	7	33							0		33
Oakland Raiders	5	5	8	8	4	30							0		30
Buffalo Bills	7	6	4	6	6	29							0		29
Jacksonville Jaguars	5	7	8	5	2	27							0		27
Kansas City Chiefs	2	4	10	7	2	25							0		25
Cleveland Browns	4	5	5	4	5	23							0		23
Detroit Lions	0	2	6	10	4	22							0		22
St. Louis Rams	2	1	7	2	7.5	19.5							0		19.5

Ravens #1, baby.

In the table, ties are broken by postseason wins, where applicable, under the theory that one postseason win is worth more than one reg season win. It's a slightly greater accomplishment. Thus the Ravens are #1 ahead of the Patriots! Also the Jets get the nod over the Texans, and the Vikings over the Titans. Ties remaining after that are broken by the most recent reg season record, under the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately theory. Thus Packers ahead of Steelers; likewise Bears over Chargers, Broncos over Vikings, and Redskins over Buccaneers.

For comparison, last season's list is here.

The main reason Baltimore moves up 45 spots from last season, is that their 5-win 2007 season came off the books, while they posted another good great year. For the first time the chart includes only the Harbaugh-Flacco era Ravens.

More interestingly, the Patriots stays at the top even though their Imperfect Season dropped off the chart. First, of course they had another great season. Second: the #s 2-3-4-5 teams from last year were Green Bay, Pittsburgh, the Giants and the Saints. Pittsburgh and New Orleans had mediocre seasons this year. The Packers and Giants had good seasons; but like the Patriots, they had great seasons drop off the back end of the list. Last year, the first season on the chart was Brett Favre's last season in Green Bay: they won 13 reg season games and advanced to the conference finals. They lost to the Giants, who rendered the Pats season Imperfect. So even though the Pats had 16 wins drop from their chart before the season began, the Packers and Giants each had 14 wins drop off, and couldn't catch up.

My rule of thumb is, any team with a grand total of 45 or over is doing something right. That's an average winning record, nine wins per year, in a league where winning at all (let alone winning consistently) is extremely difficult. These are the most successful organizations in the sport. Note that the Chargers are just on the right side of this line, which I find somewhat surprising. Also note that the Eagles are just half a game out of this. Considering the debacle there this year, that really points out how consistently excellent even the tail end of Andy Reid's tenure was.

Note technically a total of 40.5 or better represents a “winning” record, barely. That would average out to 4 yrs of 8-8 and one year of 8-7-1. I personally think that is nothing to write home about: but it beats losing. These teams in the 41-44 win category are in a second tier. It's nice to see Dallas firmly in mid-tier territory. I assume Denver is trending up for another couple seasons. Minnesota will have trouble breaking up out of this tier: they would need to win 10 and 12 over the next two seasons, just to stay where they are. Seattle and maybe Cincinnati should move into this tier next season.

At the other end of the spectrum: man St Louis is horrendous. But they seem to be moving up. Detroit will get a bounce next year, as their big zero comes off the books. Even a bad record would move them up. I'm not sure who to project into the bottom spot for next season. Maybe Jax?

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Just Happy To Be Here

I'm surprised how completely I'm buying in to the notion that just getting to the Super Bowl is a crowning accomplishment for a team. 

Most Super Bowl losers are more or less consigned to the dustbin of history.  No one really gives any credit to the Panthers for a great accomplishment in 2003, or to the Cardinals for a great run in 2008, or to the Titans for being a great team in 1999.  Those teams lost, and they are nothing.  And that's weird actually, because the games those teams lost were magnificent, down-to-the-wire nailbiters.  The Panthers lost on an Adam Vinatieri field goal with 4 seconds on the clock.  The Cardinals lost on a thrilling last-minute TD pass in the back corner of the end zone, 35 seconds on the clock, fabulous catch, a play that was endlessly shown as a highlight all offseason.  The Titans lost when Kevin Dyson was tackled one yard shy of the end zone on the final play of the game.  These are games that VERY EASILY could have gone the other way, teams that were just as good on Super Sunday as their opponent.  But those teams lost, and therefore suck.

The only real exception to the “losers are nothing” rule is the Imperfect Patriots, who were 18-0 going into the Big Game, and lost.  Maybe the Colts of Super Bowl 3, old Johnny Unitas and Earl Morrall and Tom Matte, losing the game of “The Guarantee”.  But everyone else, we forget.

So that explains why I'm “surprised”.  More difficult to explain why I'm buying it, that just getting there is a big deal: because despite all of the foregoing, I'm really excited and happy for the Ravens who have gotten to the big game.  We usually vilify teams who are satisfied just to get there, but just getting there is an extremely satisfying accomplishment.  These Ravens have banged their head against the conference championship door a few times in the last 5 season.  Getting IN is tremendous.

What makes it special is the two week layoff, the long pause during which you are at the very top of the game.  Prior to the Ravens being part of it, I have looked down my nose at Super Bowl week and Media Day and the endless empty “analysis” and the blather & hype that goes with all of it.  But now that the Ravens are in it, it seems like a humane tradition.  Picture CBS playing “One Shining Moment” at the end of the NCAA Tournament, but this song goes on for two weeks. 

Ed Reed gets a piece of center stage!  Have you seen how happy Ed Reed looks, in all his press conferences?  Deeply, deeply happy.  Like I've never seen him before: utterly relaxed and at peace.  The stupidest questions elicit from him a fond, indulgent chuckle; and he's a guy who often seems bitter & angry when put in front of a camera.  Getting the Hall of Famer to this game and this stage, in his home city, is a worthy deed.  Terrell Suggs is a guy in less need of a raised platform; but he's a 10-yr veteran who's been a big-enough part of enough greatness to “deserve” a trip to this game.  Matt Birk, Haloti Ngata, Vonta Leach, Marshall Yanda, Ray Rice: these are guys any NFL fan could root for getting their chance to trot onto the field Super Sunday.  Joe Flacco gets to push aside all that “elite” stuff: for two weeks he is a Super Bowl QB, and the critics are nowhere to be found.  Anquan Boldin & Brendon Ayanbadejo get to return to the Super Bowl.  And yes, Ray Lewis doesn't end his career in the anonymity of a road loss in the divisional round.  For the last two weeks of the football year, he is the biggest star in the NFL.

So, getting here is enormously satisfying.  These two weeks stretch out, in a really nice and enjoyable way for a Ravens fan.

I have to admit, I'm a little concerned that just getting here BETTER be enough.  Because the game itself worries me.  It's a common observation that these Ravens remind of recent Giants teams, 2007 and last year.  Scrappy teams with a puncher's chance, who heat up and make the most of what they got.  Aaron Schatz writes: “here we are again, with the 'mediocre team gets hot in the playoffs' conundrum.”  Those teams won.  But I'm afraid the Giants team these Ravens most resemble, is the one from a dozen years ago.  They were a scrappy, above-average but not great team, that surprised a couple opponents in the playoffs and advanced to the Super Bowl.  There they ran into a VASTLY more physical team, and they got destroyed.  The opponent was younger, faster, stronger, on both fronts.  The game was not competitive.  That's what I worry about with this game.  San Francisco is younger, faster, and stronger on both fronts.

These two teams played 14 months ago, and I thought the Niners were younger/faster/stronger then.   The Ravens only won because of the home field / travel advantage, and because they were a little farther along the program-building arc than the Niners were.  The Ravens were accustumed to playing in “that game,” they did it twice (sometimes thrice) a year vs Pittsburgh; whereas the Niners were still brand new to the idea of being a great team.  And the Ravens had a slightly more fully-functional offense, with their QB and OC having the whole playbook.  But that was last season.  The Niners have gotten better since; and the Ravens have for the most part just aged.  San Francisco has had a whole year (and two conference championship appearances) to grow into the role of being a great team.  There's no short week / long travel advantage for the Ravens here, both teams are a short walk from the stadium. 

San Francisco is an awfully strong team.  Ben Muth writes that the best unit in football is the Niners O-line.  Not the best O-line, the best unit overall; and the Ravens have been appallingly vulnerable to a strong rushing attack all season long.  The Niners have an outstanding front seven, while the Ravens have been inconsistent on the O-line thruout the season.  And Jim Harbaugh has big brass balls (see: Veer, Collin Kaepernick).  There's just a lot to worry about in this game, if you're a Ravens fan.

The reasons to be hopeful, for a Ravens fan, mostly revolve around what we've seen in the playoffs.

• Ray Lewis pointed out that the first time he, Suggs, Reed and Bernard Pollard all played together this season, was the first playoff game.  Plus Haloti Ngata has been trudging along at about 80% for most of the year.  Is the healthy Ravens D we've seen in the playoffs a much more capable squad than we saw during the reg season?
• Have Jim Caldwell and Joe Flacco discovered magic offense sauce?
• Is the revamped O-line a solid unit?
• Is Collin Kaepernick still an inexperienced QB after only 9 starts?  Can he be baited into some game-changing mistakes, by Mr Ed Reed?  Who, by the way, will be playing in his home state.  If I had to pick the one Ravens defender most ready to make an impact play…

Is that stuff real, or is it a mirage?  Tune in Sunday.  In the meantime: wow, what an awesome moment this is.  Patrick wrote a nice email to us Ravens fans, late after the conf championship.  It went:

I am happy for you guys.  It’s a special time, the next couple of weeks, regardless of the outcome on 2/3.  I’ve been fortunate enough to be a fan of a few great teams balanced at the precipice of the pinnacle – as the Ravens are now – to know how exhilarating it is.  IMO the anticipation is far more fun and rewarding than the actual outcome.

Sunday's gonna come fast, and it's gonna be gone even quicker.  This nice, long moment is one to savor.

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Deserve

On PTI last week, the guys asked which Harbaugh boy the parents were rooting for in the Super Bowl?

Kornheiser said, "The older one." John, of the Ravens. TK's thinking was, John is not the one who had the size and athletic ability to be recruited as a D1 quarterback; that was Jim. John played his football at D3 Miami of Ohio, earning a degree in Political Science. John did not get picked in the first round of the NFL draft; that was Jim. John, after graduation, went to grad school at Western Michigan and worked as a grad asst with the football team (his dad's team). John didn't play 14 years in the NFL; that was Jim. John spent 14 years as a college assistant, working his way up to the NFL. John didn't get a head coaching gig "immediately", ie in his 3rd year of coaching; that was Jim. John worked for 24 years as an assistant, college and pro, assembling a body of work, before anyone gave him an opportunity to be a head coach, at any level.

I think Tony's right. Oh, not that Jack & Jackie are pulling for their younger son Jim to lose the big game. But if there is an ideal scenario for both of the brothers getting one, it's that John gets his now, and Jim brings his team back and wins next year – against someone else.

Jim has a powerhouse team that should be on the rise, with a championship window just opening. He should have a chance at more of these. John's team is older at key positions; their championship window is likely closing, after years of banging their head against the door. Oh sure, you can imagine that Joe Flacco is "coming into his own" as a QB under Jim Caldwell, and they will have a championship offense for the next several years. But Joe is aleady 28, which is (just) past prime for an NFL player. (QBs have a longer prime than other players, but peak is usually age 27.) Ray Lewis is leaving, Ed Reed 34 and likely leaving, Terrell Suggs turns 31 a month into next season, and Haloti Ngata is 29. The Ravens era of championship defenses should be drawing to a close. They might have enough to reach up and play at that level one more time; but it would be a surprise to see them back on this stage in the next couple years.

So any scenario for the Harbaugh parents where both of their boys win a ring, has John winning now and Jim following up in the next couple years. Plus John has a greater body of coaching work in the NFL. Of the brothers, he “deserves” it more right now.

Of course, as William Munny reminds us, "deserve" has got nothing to do with it

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