Stumbling into Competence

The Oakland Raiders have been the model of an incompetent NFL franchise for the last decade. Al Davis has been called everything between senile and a cancer, and in at least one case, both. They held the worst NFL record for a five year stretch after losing the '02/'03 Superbowl, and have yet to win more than five games in a season since that season.

And yet, all of a sudden, in one off-season, they look like a team not only interested in contending, but smart enough to actually build a contender. Now admittedly, Jim's already blogged about this. But let's take a deeper look at how they're doing it the right way.

For now, at least, the coaching Merry-Go-Round seems to be on hold.
Tom Cable was on thin ice. He was virtually every media-mogul's top "Hot Seat" candidate going into last season. The punching incident aside, Cable looked like a questionable hire when made, but has seemed to be a legitimate coach with the ability to get his players to respond. He toed the company line and went along with cutting Garcia to keep Russell the unquestioned guy under center, and it was assumed he'd get the ax and Russell would get to continue anchoring the team at the bottom of the ocean despite Cable benching Russell about half way through the season. Once it was learned which of them was really getting shown the door, the Raiders were truly showing they might not be as dumb as everyone assumed.

But not just that, they signed former Ravens QB coach Hue Jackson in what could be a terrific move. Jackson did a terrific job with Joe Flacco, and was a fairly hot commodity this off-season. Many in Baltimore hoped he could fill in at OC if Cam wound up with another head coaching gig in the near future.

They befuddled the draftniks with a solid draft class.
I lost count of the number of mock drafts that had the Raiders picking Bruce Campbell at #8 overall. "Love the guy with the measurables" was the common statement. And they did draft him with the 8th pick...of the 4th round. Before him, they took the draft's best LB Rolando McClain and solid DT Lamarr Houston to shore up what was a horrendous run defense, and Jared Veldheer as well to give them a pair of mid-round high-risk, high-reward prospects on an offensive line that Football Outsiders ranked as 23rd in run blocking and 31st in pass blocking and desperately needs some help. Across the board they got players that both filled needs and represented solid value.

They've cut loose the dead weight.
Google "JaMarcus Russell biggest bust ever" and you get over 1.1 million hits. Now, this may not say all that much, given that googling "Peyton Manning biggest bust ever" gives almost 4 million hits. But the difference is that there's legitimate discussion of whether Russell's the biggest of all time. Finally shedding him has truly turned around the biggest negative this team had over the past few years. In addition to releasing Russell, they also cut Cornell Green and Gerrard Warren.

They've retained good talent, and brought in solid players.
Last year, Patrick blogged what we were all thinking, that Richard Seymour would represent a "one year rental" for the Raiders as he would inevitably go elsewhere after another dismal '09 season. While he hasn't signed a long term extension, he has already signed his franchise tender and will be back for another season. To further plug up their NFL third worst run defense, they brought in Kamerion Wimbley for an undisclosed pick from Cleveland and recently signed former two-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle John Henderson.

In addition, they've addressed their weakest position - quarterback - by bringing in two players at least capable of playing the position better than Russell. Kyle Boller certainly isn't a good starting quarterback, but he does at least qualify as a capable backup. And while I'm not a Jason Campbell fan, I do believe he can play quarterback at least at a mediocre level. Over the past two seasons, he's completed 63.3% of his passes, thrown 1.6 TDs per INT and thrown for 6.8 YPA. They aren't numbers that'll ever put him in the top ten at the position. But he brings competence and - dare we speak it - stability to a position that has been lacking it since Rich Gannon's magical emergence from journeyman to Superbowl quarterback. I don't believe Campbell will morph in the same fashion, but I do believe he'll provide the team with solid play under center, which by itself could lead them to drafting in the bottom half of the draft rounds for the first time in years.

With all of these off-season moves, the Raiders may have taken themselves from laughing stock to contenders. They're certainly in the right division for it. San Diego no longer has a strangle-hold on things, as Tomlinson has disappeared (figuratively at first, literally more recently) and Vince Jackson threatens not to join the team until the second half of the season. And between the Chiefs who barely look like they're pretending to care about winning, and the Broncos who look like they care but don't look like they've got a clue how to do so (someone should tell McDaniels that they don't give out playoff spots based on which team has the roster with the highest moral standards), there doesn't look to be much standing in their way as the team that can give the Chargers a run for their money.

Last year they certainly lost their fair share of ugly games. But they also played the Chargers tough twice, and beat the Steelers and Bengals while both were making playoff runs, not to mention gave the Ravens a scare until Russell was forced into action and essentially closed that door. I wrote somewhere that I can't remember and can't find back after Russell cost them their first match vs. SD that this was a team a quarterback away from contending for the division. This off-season, they've done far more than that to allow themselves that opportunity.

It should be interesting to see if it comes to fruition.

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Patience is a virtue...when it's deserved

In his recent piece by USA Today's Jarrett Bell, Al Davis talks with him about having patience with JaMarcus Russell.

As expected, TV experts have had a field day blasting Russell as unfit, even unprofessional. The criticism seems to be as embarrassing as it is frustrating for Davis.

Asked about Russell, Davis said he has to stick with him — for now.

Then Davis proceeded to offer up a history lesson, rattling off one detail after another. He mentioned Troy Aikman's 1989 rookie year, when the Cowboys were 1-15. He pointed out that Terry Bradshaw was benched for Joe Gilliam in 1974. He talked about the turbulence John Elway had early in his career. He flashed back to Ken Stabler's first five years, and recalled that Jim Plunkett was once considered a washout.

His theme? Patience.

The article goes on to mention that Davis has another call placed to Bell to tell him about more quarterbacks that were slow starters, including Montana, Steve Young and Dan Fouts.

And the logical fallacy Davis commits? None of those guys have been as absolutely, shockingly horrible as JaMarcus Russell has. Certainly not Montana and Young, who despite starting slower than they wound up playing much of their careers, still looked very respectable. But not even Plunkett or Bradshaw had looked as terrible as Russell, particularly given the handicap of not having the leniency which quarterbacks are given by today's passing rules.

Take away Russell's long TD to Zach Miller, if you will for a moment. He doesn't deserve most of it anyway. He threw it straight to Miller, who was wide open in a gaping defensive hole 20 yards down field. At which point the Eagle decided they'd rather have their afternoon tea than play football, allowing Miller to lumber down the field about another 50-60 yards for a score in what was one of the worst examples of defensive pursuit and tackling that I have ever witnessed. I like Louis Murphy a lot, but if he's blocking three guys on the way to the end zone, you as a defense are not doing your job.

Anyway, minus that TD...let's even call it a catch for 25 yards... Russell would be 17 of 28 for 163 yards, 0 TD and 2 INT. A whopping 47.2 rating. This would actually lift his QB rating on the season to 47.0 for the year. Thanks to the Eagles generously forgetting they were in Oakland, not London, Russell sits with a far more impressive 51.0 QB rating so far for the year.

But for all of Davis' wishing and hoping that all Russell needs is time, one has to wonder two things.
1) How much time exactly should a $60 million quarterback need to turn into something even serviceable?
2) How likely is he even to turn into something serviceable?

The answer to the first all depends on how much money you're willing to spend. Al Davis certainly throws it around like it's meaningless. But while he's busy giving $60MM to guys that in their third season look like they shouldn't be playing in Jr High, he's also costing himself significantly at the will call window, as fans are anything but excited to come catch a game at the stadium.

The answer to the second is more compelling, and not nearly as likely to provide an answer Davis will be happy with. I've watched three Raiders games now, and bits and pieces of others. This isn't simply a case of a quarterback that needs time to develop. It's certainly not a case of his supporting cast failing him...his backs are rushing okay, his receivers are often times WIDE open (likely a result of defenses stacking pretty much everyone in the box, knowing Russell has no hope of beating them deep), and his line, while not the best in the game, is performing adequately.

JaMarcus simply is not throwing the ball well in any way. The best thing that can be said about him is that his passes are often so far off the mark, the defenders don't have a chance to catch them without being caught well out of position. The passes he's completing now are mostly short throws. The past two games he's completed 60%+ of his passes. But taking out the YAC of that Miller TD, he's under 11 yards per completion, under 6.5 per attempt. A lot of this is due to the sloppy footwork and mechanics that we keep hearing about.

And JaMarcus Russell boasts one simple, fatal flaw that none of the other quarterbacks Al Davis mentioned seemed to suffer. He is lazy.

We're hearing and reading multiple statements that Russell isn't putting in the work needed to play at an elite level. He reported to camp overweight and out of shape, yet again. He's reportedly been fined multiple times for being late to or outright skipping meetings. It's been said that he's often the last one on and first one off the practice field. His own coach has said he's regressing.

And what is Russell's response to this? Well, he's shouldered some of the blame, admitting he's "Not where I want to be." But he's also taken to throwing his own teammates under the bus. "I know where the guys are going to be, but at the same time, once you look there, they're not quite there yet," Russell said.

Yes, patience is often a virtue. And yes, you should absolutely be patient with your quarterbacks to make sure they develop...even with the ones you pay $60 million. Not everyone will be a Dan Marino, or Matt Ryan, or even Joe Flacco, playing well out of the gate.

But the players must prove that they deserve that patience. They have to show the work ethic to make themselves better, rather than be lazy and seemingly feel adequate in underperforming. And until Russell begins to show those qualities, he doesn't deserve any of the patience Al Davis is giving him.

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How Bad Are They?

I read a rumor last night that the Raiders have called around letting the rest of the team know that virtually any player on their roster is available for trade.

My guess is that there won't be too many inquiries about Jamarcus Russell.

This Raider offense is bad. And by "bad" I mean historically bad. Awful. Breathtakingly putrid. It is a train wreck that fascinates us. We can see this by the increasing airwave time committed to just how dysfunctional that team really is.

Yesterday they got the ball on offense 12 times and ran a total of 36 plays. Third grade math tells us that they averaged a three-and-out on every series. Their longest drive was 3:56 and went for 17 yards. Their touchdown 'drive' was 15 yards long.

Last week they managed a 13 play drive that resulted in a field goal and ate up 6:08. Other than that, their longest drive was 22 yards. Their second best time possession was 2:38. They had 6 three-and-outs and a seventh that would have been if they hadn't fumbled the ball away.

Looking back to week one the Raiders seemed to be very promising. They dominated the Chargers in what ultimately was a close loss. After the game the consensus was that they might have been able to win the division with even something approaching average quarterback play (at the time we didn't realize how surprising Denver would ultimately be). But even in that game the offense showed some flashes, most of which were ultimately extinguished by some bizarrely bad play by Russell. They had two 20 play drives that consumed over 6:00 of clock. They had another 7 play, 4:06 drive that ended in an interception deep in Chargerland. They had a 9 play touchdown drive toward the end of the 4th quarter. So even with the dysfunction under center, this team showed at least some semblance of putting a competitive offensive team on the field.

The wheels started coming off before week two. They managed a scoring drive and narrow victory over the hapless Chiefs (will someone please send that team some hap?) Against Denver 6 three-and-outs along with a four-and-out. Exactly one drive in that game over 3:00. Even worse in week 4 against the Texans. Two three-and-outs. A five play drive that netted -16 yards. Three drives totalling 5 plays that ended in turnovers.

This season the Raiders are averaging less than 25:00 TOP. They are averaging under 200 yards per game. Their quarterback has a 47 rating after 5 games. Their average yards per play for the season actually went down yesterday and is sitting at 3.6. The next worse team going into week 5 was the Chiefs at 4.2.

What is somewhat odd is that as bad as Russell is, this can't be put entirely on him. Oakland easily has the worst wide receivers in the NFL. Darren McFadden is looking like a bust. Zach Miller is their only reliable offensive threat. In the past this team was able to hide their inept passing game with one of the better running attacks in the league. Whatever worked in the past though, isn't working now. The Raiders are averaging 3.3 yards per rush. This isn't quite the worst in the NFL but it's close.

Have to wonder when the mandate from the deranged ownership to play Russell and (possibly) McFadden will lift and some relief will come to Raider nation.

Perhaps the increasingly sparse crowds at the Colosseum will get Big Al's attention. Reality sure hasn't.

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