LOI Day

Today was LOI Day. The first day of the new year that high schoolers are allowed to sign Letters of Intent with schools to agree that they will come to play football for them.

The evolution of LOI Day has really been interesting to see over the last decade or so. It used to be so obscure, I think if you mentioned LOI Day to 1,000 fans, 999 of them would look at you like you were talking about nuclear physics. That hasn't exactly reversed, but at this point I would guess that 25% - 30% know about LOI Day, and probably a good 10% could tell you at least something about what went on.

Maybe not 10%, but damn sure it's a lot more than it was at this time in the '90s.

This has begun to get a lot more attention in the media recently, which is one of the main reasons it's becoming better known. ESPN ... Not the Deuce, not ESPN News, ... the main channel, broadcasts LOI Day. The antics get sort of crazy with these kids - and don't forget that's what they are...kids thrust onto national television - declaring their intentions. It's interesting to see where they're going, but the process itself has sort of gotten a bit sick. Ahh, gotta love that media.

Anyway, check out the live blogging above to recap the action. It's not really worth it much for me to go through it all cause I didn't see any of it live and don't particularly care to go word for word. My personal take from it is that as a Penn State alumni, I was really hoping Jelani Jenkins would choose us over Florida, but it looks like that's not gonna happen. Oh well, Linebacker U will go on I'm sure. Penn State's had a solid class so far, so I won't complain too much.

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Surfing Pittsburgh

Troy Polamalu, you've just won the Super Bowl. What are you going to do now?

I'm going crowd surfing.

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Your Super Bowl viewing experience

I mentioned offhandedly the other day that it's really noticeable how the networks have improved the football-watching experience for TV viewers, over the decades. Here's a new feature that may or may not be an improvement:

Prank of the Year: Comcast Tucson Airs Graphic Porn During Super Bowl

Be aware that the vid (which won't play unless you click play) on that page is NSFW. Most emphatically NSFW.

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Blogging the Superbowl - Second Half

Cards first drive
Some good running by Edge might help open that passing game up a bit. The Cards look cool and collected, not going to panic down by 10. They didn't score, but they did move the ball. They just need to stick with it and not panic.

The problem is, this tends to be where defenses sort of panic a bit. The Cards aren't out of this game, but the Steelers really do have control here. If they can put together a good drive, this game's done.

Steelers first drive
Really nice drive by the Steelers. That roughing the passer call was garbage, but the Steelers just looked really efficient. Clearly better in every way. They didn't run the ball other than one play, but they threw it with really incredible efficiency. They knew where to go with it, and they made more plays. That drive actually makes me think the Steelers aren't just the better team, they're also better coached.

That said, this drive was stamped by three just ridiculously huge penalties against the Cards. Two personal fouls that counted for 30 yards, and then a terrible personal foul to give the Steelers a first down after they were taking the 3 points. The 4 point play there wasn't just 4 points, it was more critical than that...it's a possession.

They held, so it didn't kill them. But man, that was such a costly penalty there! Terrific tackle by Watson to wrap Ben up and take him down by his shoe. He doesn't make that tackle, I think Ben's in the end zone.

Cards second drive
The interesting thing about this is we're basically out of the third Q by the time the drive starts. This has to be one of the fastest Superbowls ever.

The Cards seem to have about 78 penalties right now. 91 penalty yards is really tough to overcome.

With this drive fizzling, it would seem to me this game's over. Everything is going the Steelers way right now. They're very clearly the better team in every facet of the game.

Steelers second drive
So here's the Steelers looking like they're driving well, and suddenly Dockett comes up with two huge plays. Terrific defense of the rush, and then the sack on Ben on third down was really important to at least give AZ a shot.

Cards third drive
As Patrick said to me via IM, Breaston is an idiot. No excuse for not fair catching.

This is premature, but this drive reminds me a little about what happened when the Rams were leading the late drives against the Pats in the Superbowl. They were getting pounded, then suddenly just put one or two drives together. It really shows how dangerous Warner is. Can you really say he's ever out of it?

The Steelers are largely killing this team up to this drive. The Cards have the Ben INT, but other than that, everything is going the Steelers way.

And the funny part of it is, if the Cards get a TD at the end of the first half, rather than the Steelers, the Cards would be winning and driving to go up by 8 points.

I mean, not really. Obv the Steelers play it differently in the second half if they're down 4 instead of up 10. But what it highlights is how important every play is in this league.

This is another critical drive coming up for both teams.

Steelers third drive
If the Cards win, Dockett deserves consideration for MVP of the game. Warner or Fitzgerald will get it (probably Warner), but Dockett's had now three HUGE plays on two drives where the Cards absolutely had to have stops. Dude has been CLUTCH.

Cards fourth drive
How many QBs are there in NFL history that you want leading this drive for you? Warner's unquestionably one of them.

The pass to Breaston was a thing of beauty. That's what I like to call an NFL play. Text-book perfect offensive play. Two scary WRs get outside, open up the middle, the third WR is wide open for a huge gain.

Then of course they run the worst third and 20 play ever. I understand the screen, but man I'm not sure I've ever seen a more pooly executed play when it "should" have worked. i.e. The defense sold out on a blitz, and Warner just threw it into the turf.

Steelers fourth drive
Terrible foul by Harrison. I agree with Madden, he probably should have been ejected there. As it stands, it cost them less than a yard, so meh.

Parker is REALLY lucky to have gotten out of the end zone to avoid that safety. The Cards have been great on run D. Parker has 1 rush for 15 yards, and 18 for 38.

Huge, HUGE penalty on Hartwig. It was a great play by the Steelers to pick up the first down. First down, out of trouble, three to play and Cards with only 2 TOs left. But nope, holding in the end zone completely changes the complexion of the game.

Cards fifth drive
Wow. Just wow. Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald have been RIDICULOUS this post-season.

What a football game this has been.

Steelers fifth drive
We had one drive for each team in the 3rd Q, and this drive makes it 4 for each team in the 4th.

The play right before the 2 minute warning was a little weird. It seems like it's a really bad idea to run that play. You maybe catch the D off-guard. But you're costing yourself a play now if you don't get it. Maybe it's not a big deal cause the odds of picking up 6 yards in 2 plays is reasonable. But it seems like it'd be a better idea to try to keep the play.

Lucky play for the Steelers that the defender fell down on Holmes to pick up about 20 extra yards and get into TD scoring range. Holmes made a really nice play though, getting turned around, the defender fell, and getting way downfield.

Other than that ball the next play going through his hands, Holmes has had a terrific game. Makes up for it the next play with an amazing TD catch. I think that drive just sealed him the MVP.

Cards sixth drive
78 yards in 29 seconds. Um, unlikely. Though it does allow for some interesting shots. 20 yards two separate plays, you've at least got a chance to throw a jump ball two or three times, or take another 20 yard to the sideline and then one shot at the end zone.

But no dice. That last play for Warner looked awful. Three man rush and he lets that happen?

It was a terrible finish for the Cards...very sloppy final play for Warner. But in general, what a terrific and entertaining football game! Very back-and-forth, and really exciting. It's great to watch Superbowls like these, cause they really live up to the hype.

And by the way, the Steelers have one helluva coach in Tomlin. Really fantastic.

Congrats to the [VOMIT] Steelers.

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Blogging the Superbowl - First Half

Steelers first drive
Well, the Cards came out and did a lot right on the first drive. Unfortunately, they also did a lot wrong. They look a little less prepared than the Steelers, which makes sense given that Warner is about the only one that's ever played.

Interesting that we have the challenge right off the bat. NBC has something like 1.5x the number of cameras in the game. They have so many angles to look at. One way or the other, it was a great challenge, regardless of the outcome (which took 4 points off the board).

Very good result for the Cards to stop them at the 3 yard line.

Cards first drive
It's 2nd and 20 for the Cards first drive, and they looked like they just gave up? The play-calling there was questionable to say the least. That looked very conservative, like "Okay, just don't want to give the ball up."

Steelers second drive
Great, great defensive play by Rogers-Cromartie. He just had a major burst at the end there and closed on the ball and got in the air in a way that you rarely see for DBs.

Vintage drive by the Steelers. They look really zoned in right now.

Cards second drive
Wow. The Cards offense is just so efficient when it's in tune. Boldin made a sensational play to get open and almost get into the end zone. Then an absolutely amazing catch by Patrick in the end zone.

The Cards had to answer there, and they did. That should take some of the wind out of the Steelers. If the Steelers shut down the Cards, this game was at risk of becoming a blow-out. Now, the Cards D can come out with a bit more confidence and know they can play their game.

Big drive for both teams coming up.

Steelers third drive
Rogers-Cromartie is having a highlight first half. Two really big pass break-ups. He's making AZ look like they made a great pick.

Roethlisberger is so ridiculously good out of the pocket. There was holding on that 3rd down play, but Big Ben just makes an insane amount of plays when he gets outside. As a Ravens fan, it's really frustrating, cause you think they have him, and then all of a sudden he's across the field, throwing it across his body, completing it to someone standing wide open.

That was a big, BIG stop for the Cardinals. I think they had to prove to themselves that they could get off the field without the Steelers putting points on the board.

Cards third drive
Terrific return by Breaston. He saw he had nothing, cut it back and just used his speed to get behind everyone. The Cards are definitely in this game, regardless of whether or not they score. Eight clock minutes ago it looked like this was gonna be a laugher.

Again it looked like a give-up call on 3rd and 22. Granted it's not like it's a high percentage play to pick up. But why not toss a jump ball to Fitzgerald there? The guy's consistently been killing double coverage on jump balls. It's just as good as a punt. Why not give him a shot to make a play?

Steelers fourth drive
Nice defense by the Cards. They sold out on the run blitz and didn't really look great. But that INT off the tip is really huge. If they can close the half out with a score, they can be tied or lead while getting the ball in the 2nd half.

Cards fourth drive
That first play made no sense. I dunno if the Steelers just read it perfectly or what. Warner rolls right in a designed roll-out. And I think we all know how well he runs. So here he is waddling along like a wounded duck, and the entire Steelers D is coming with him, and then he just throws it away.

What a terrific job by Tim Hightower on third down catching a ball that should have been a 4 yard catch, and getting 11 out of it.

The review was a HUGE call. It's a 7 point play, since the clock ran out. I think the call is the right one there. Honestly I'm not convinced there's any way it could get overturned either way.

What a huge let-down for the Cards. They coulda gone into half-time tied or with the lead, getting the ball at the start of the second. Instead, they go in with a 10 point deficit. One play is a 10-14 point swing.

Great first half.

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Super Bowl Prediction

Steelers will destroy Arizona. This will not be one of those close, tense Super Bowls; this will be one those spanking SBs. No way Arizona has the depth of good players up and down their roster to hang with Pittsburgh. They've got a couple great players, but not enough. Usually in a SB one of the teams is obviously better, and this year that team is Pittsburgh.

Warner & Fitzgerald & Boldin can make it interesting. But they won't win.

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Topical

The Times focuses on the physics, but considering our recent conversations, I think some of the underlying psychology is more interesting.

Clark’s shockingly violent hit on Willis McGahee two Sundays ago — a full-speed, helmet-to-helmet crash that left McGahee unconscious and Clark all but — didn’t just follow the N.F.L.’s rules, but Newton’s as well. Force equaled mass times acceleration. Momentum was conserved. And the bodies finally came to rest, McGahee’s on a stretcher.

The hit was the functional equivalent of running into a padded wall at 40mph.

“The tackler doesn’t want his body to be a big spring — these players lower their shoulder and tense up and launch to make their force go up,” said Stefan Duma, a professor of mechanical engineering at Virginia Tech who has studied the similarities between football collisions and car crashes. “It’s like trying to break down a door — you try to get all your mass behind you and drive it through one point. You want to get all your mass to act as one mass, one missile.”

Reaching the ball carrier at full speed is crucial, as any deceleration before impact saps force from the hit. This is where angles come in, said Timothy Gay, a professor of physics at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln

~

“Jack Tatum was vicious — that helps — but he had a way of popping with the perfect angle and timing,” Gay said of the ex-Oakland Raiders receiver called the Assassin in both reverence and fear. “The best hitters accelerate at the last instant. That final jolt of speed allows them to apply a bigger force to their victim.”

Discovery reports on some promising technology.

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A Response

I guess I have a lot to say and my pride won't let this get buried in the comments.

In the brain injury article comments Chris wrote:

The thing is, how much should we really be bothered by it for players today? This should be a situation considered much like smoking. No one knew about this before. Now we do. There should be warnings, but largely these guys know what they're getting themselves into. They're being paid millions of dollars to sacrifice their bodies and make names for themselves. Even the low men on the totem pole make more than 5x the average salary in the US.

But really, it isn't as simple as slapping a warning on a sport for a number of reasons. If it were then safety really wouldn't be a consideration at all, beyond whatever minimum teams decided were necessary to protect their investments. While our society considers the individual supreme, it is also balanced against reasonable regulation. We do not allow reckless endangerment to oneself. Masking that endangerment in a sporting activity does not make it any more legal, even if society somehow finds it more acceptable.

Arguing that the monetary reward for self-destruction is sufficient is ... well, subjective, to say the least. Given enough money we could find people to attempt anything. How about a $50 million duel to the death? I guarantee the line would be out the door.

Laws regarding workplace safety make no distinction for compensation. We don't typically condone the high mortality rate of coal miners because they make so much more than shopkeepers, but instead demand as stringent health and safety measures possible without crippling the industry.

Furthermore, if football is inherently dangerous then we are guilty of exposing minors to unnecessary risk. Football players don't spring wholly formed at the age of consent to embark on a college [sic] career with NFL dreams. They play pee wee and junior high and high school football. At what point do bodily collisions begin to have a deleterious impact? 50 pound collisions? 100 pound collisions? Their consent to play lies with their parents, not with them, and typically big time football players don't come from backgrounds of the greatest education and worldly wisdom. By the time these kids reach the age of consent they are completely programmed.

I love football, and am certainly not arguing it has no place. But this is the real world and these are real world considerations.

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No news is good news?

This has to be one of the most quiet Superbowl weeks in recent memory. The hype is all there. But the circus that usually surrounds this event?

No one is soliciting prostitutes like Eugene Robinson.
No accused felons are playing in the game like Ray Lewis.
No one has gone missing like Barrett Robbins.
No one is engaging in massive smack-talk like Hines Ward and Jeremy Stevens.
No one is asking the starting QBs to marry them like Ines Gomez-Mont.

Both teams are being incredibly silent about things, and *gasp* acting like professionals. It begs the question of whether or not that makes this week a boring week, or is it nice and refreshing to see two teams that seemingly have a lot of respect for the game and for each other?

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Concussions in football players

This might be the most important football-related news in many years. Followed this link off the Football Outsiders web site, so compliments to them on disseminating this. From CNN:

Dead athletes' brains show damage from concussions

using tissue from retired NFL athletes culled posthumously, the Center for the Study of Traumatic Encephalopathy (CSTE), at the Boston University School of Medicine, is shedding light on what concussions look like in the brain. The findings are stunning. Far from innocuous, invisible injuries, concussions confer tremendous brain damage. That damage has a name: chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE).
On Tuesday afternoon, researchers at the CSTE released a study about the sixth documented case of CTE in former NFL player Tom McHale, who died in 2008 at the age of 45, and the youngest case to date, an 18-year-old multi-sport athlete who suffered multiple concussions. While CTE in an ex-NFL player's brain may have been expected, the beginnings of brain damage in an 18-year-old brain was a "shocking" finding, according to Dr. Ann McKee, a neuropathologist at the Veterans Administration Hospital in Bedford, Massachusetts, and co-director of the CSTE.
...
CTE has thus far been found in the brains of six out of six former NFL players. "What's been surprising is that it's so extensive," said McKee. "It's throughout the brain, not just on the superficial aspects of the brain, but it's deep inside." ... McKee, who also studies Alzheimer's disease, says the tangles closely resemble what might be found in the brain of an 80-year-old with dementia.
"I knew what traumatic brain disease looked like in the very end stages, in the most severe cases," said McKee. "To see the kind of changes we're seeing in 45-year-olds is basically unheard of."
...
The Center for the Study of Traumatic Encephalopathy, along with other research institutions, has now identified traumatic encephalopathy in the brains of late NFL football players John Grimsley, Mike Webster, Andre Waters, Justin Strzelczyk and Terry Long, in addition to McHale. ... "Guys were dying," said Nowinski. "The fact of the matter was guys were dying because they played sports 10 or 20 years before."

The article said the NFL released a statement: "Hundreds of thousands of people have played football and other sports without experiencing any problem of this type and there continues to be considerable debate within the medical community..."

That seems disingenuous. Hundreds of thousands of people have played football without being diagnosed with problems of this type; but the data emerging from the study suggests that these problems may have gone undiagnosed and unreported, for decades. And I don't think there's any debate within the medical community about whether concussions are bad for you. The question has always been, how bad? This study suggests the answer is: potentially devastating.



Football is, of course, a massive business. The NFL itself is a huge enterprise, a multi-billion dollar monster. And the NFL is in some ways just the tip of the iceberg. The NCAA is also a pretty big operation: think of all the big money boosters at places like Georgia and Auburn and Michigan and Notre Dame and USC etc etc. Where I'm going with that is, there will be colossal resistance to the notion that football should be regulated or policed. Think of the political hue and cry over Monday Night Football being broadcast on basic cable (ESPN) rather than over public airwaves. Yet these data suggest that football cries out for, I dunno, OSHA intervention or something.

We as fans have always known that NFL football was "dangerous". Darryl Stingley was rendered quadriplegic by Jack Tatum on the field in 1978; Joe Theisman was maimed by LT on Monday Night Football in 1985; Korey Stringer died of heat stroke during training camp in 2001; Kevin Everett was paralyzed during a kickoff return in week 1 of the 2007 season (although he walked again some months later). Sure, it can be dangerous, sometimes. But I think we've always rationalized it a little, pushed it to the back of our minds. It only happens sometimes. Sure, there are occasional broken legs and torn ACLs and turf toes and ruptured biceps and hammy pulls: but most guys are fine. Stingley called his injury a freak accident.

But in recent years we've started to hear disturbing stories about ex-NFL players. The former linebacker who suffers from depression and Alzheimer's and has attempted suicide. How Joe Montana, in his 50s, can barely walk and can't lift up his grandkids. I wonder how soon we are going to be forced to conclude that football is a sport that feeds on the destruction of human beings. Not like horse-racing, where there's an occasional casualty: more like Michael Vick's much-criticized dog fighting rings, where the destruction of the participants is a certainty.

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