Friday, April 29, 2011

Some initial R1 ramblings

Yeah yeah, R2 will be started by the time this is posted. I was on an hour's sleep after taking the red-eye home, so I couldn't post last night, and worked today. With that out of the way, some initial thoughts on teams that didn't make no-brainers, or that I generally liked or hated...

1 - Cam Newton to the Panthers: The ultimate overreach. Here's the thing with me. Jaws apparently said that Newton ran around 30 pass plays which were of NFL caliber. That's an awfully low number for a guy that came off as not capable of recognizing NFL routes and players in the Gruden special. He's motivated, talented and hard working, so he probably won't be a massive, epic, Jamarcus type bust. But I do think he'll bust hard.

6 - Julio Jones / Falcons / Browns: Okay, I heard a great sound-byte today, that regardless of how stupid this move seems for the Falcons, Dimitroff has been performing great, and should be cut some slack till we have reason to doubt him. I don't doubt Jones' talent. I do doubt the merits of giving up FIVE picks to get him. The Browns made out great with this trade.

7 - Aldon Smith to the Niners: I have a Niners fan friend who hated this pick, but I like it. I think he's a great fit for the system, and like that they didn't reach for a QB. They've got a lot of holes, and this guy fills a big one, and I love his ability to get to the QB.

8 - Jake Locker to the Titans: IMO a stupid pick. He's the opposite of Vince Young...great attitude and work ethic, highly questionable talent.

10 - Blaine Gabbert / Jags / Redskins: I really like the Skins trading down to get more picks. They have a lot of holes to fill and need bodies. I'm not a huge Gabbert fan, but I fully admit that not only is it impossible for a non-professional to predict QB success (professionals can only do this with around 50/50 accuracy, what chance do we have?), but I also haven't watched him enough to form a strong opinion.

12 - Christian Ponder to the Vikes: I have made fun of this pick cause, let's face it, it's funny. But here's a guy who pretty much has questionable physical tools and strong everything else. I think if you gamble on a QB, that's the way to do it. But I'm not thrilled with doing it at #12, when you could probably have done it at #15, or #19, or #25 even...

13 - Nick Fairley to the Lions: Oh man is that going to be a fun DL to watch next year! I love what they're doing, rebuilding this team. I think whether Matt Stafford becomes solid and can stay healthy will be the determining factor for whether the Lions are a solid team or an elite team three years from now.

27 - Jimmy Smith to the Ravens: Ignore the fiasco, Chicago has said they screwed up. This is a huge risk huge reward play. Smith is arguably the most talented corner in the draft. Patrick said if he were a model citizen, he'd have been a top ten, maybe top five pick, and I agree with that. The joke I've been using is that five years from now, he'll either be headed to his prison cell, or to his fourth Pro Bowl. But his problems were pretty much two or more years ago, so I'm not terribly concerned with him.

28 - Mark Ingram to the Saints: Okay, I flat hate this pick. The rarely-understood-by-analysts idea is that it's all about the delta, the upgrade from one position to another. The cost of this pick was a 2012 first and 2011 second round pick. They just used two top picks to take a guy who is a moderate upgrade over the Ivory/Bush/Thomas combo. Even if they lose two of those guys, he's probably not a MASSIVE upgrade, which is what you need to get when you use two top picks on a guy.

31 - Cam Heyward to the Steelers: So happy Camiri didn't make it to them. The Steelers are one of the best teams in the NFL, and I think one of the reasons is because they don't hesitate to take the top guy on their board, regardless of their needs. Their front seven is stacked to the gills, and they still take a guy on the front seven. I don't question the pick at all, they've undoubtedly earned the benefit of the doubt.

1 comment:

  1. This month, the Journal Sentinel asked 24 personnel people whether they would draft Smith in the first two rounds. Thirteen said they would; 11 said they would not.

    "Jimmy Smith is a carbon copy of Aqib Talib," said an executive who has had dealings with both players. "This guy will be the same way."

    Teams are well aware that Smith flunked three drug tests at Colorado, and he told at least one club that one of the three was for misusing codeine.

    Smith also told teams of his two alcohol-related violations, the pair of abortions that were paid for by parents of women he impregnated and an arrest for third-degree assault in a restaurant.

    "Two abortions, aggravated assault, two minors in possession, three failed drug tests  . . .  that's a little excessive," the personnel man said.

    It was telling, said one scout, that Southern California and UCLA chose not to recruit Smith out of what he called a "bad, bad, bad" neighborhood just east of Los Angeles. Some of Smith's family members have been in and out of jail.

    In January, Smith reportedly turned down an invitation to play at the Senior Bowl. At about the same time, he fired agent Peter Schaeffer and hired Drew Rosenhaus.

    "He speaks well," one evaluator said, noting that Smith earned his degree from Colorado. "But when you get into the background stuff, you don't know if he can turn things around."


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