Turnover Margin and Predictions

Joe Fortenbaugh with a cool article.  Usually the kind of thing I like to research and I’m a little surprised I hadn’t thought it of it before.

I disagree with some of his conclusions (of course) because I think he looks too much at single seasons without looking at spreads of seasons for anomalous numbers.

First the link:  

Now the chart:

From this it is easy to look at 3-4 year spreads and ask “what number doesn’t fit”.  For example, Kansas City’s +9 in 2010 was out of character for them and corresponded with a somewhat improbable playoff run.

Looking at 2011 we see that Fortenbaugh highlighted Jacksonville’s jump, but the real anomaly was 2010, not 2011.  2011 was corrective.

So looking at this, the teams who I would expect to be “corrective” in 2012 would be (in order of confidence):

San Francisco     -15.5

Philadelphia      +13.5

Pittsburgh          +12.5

Tampa Bay         +11

I would normally expect Baltimore to improve by about +6 but the loss of Suggs may mitigate this improvement a bit.  I’ll leave it to you guys to decide whether last year’s dip was merely normal variation or a combination of weak offensive line play and aging playmakers.  You’ll recall Reed’s somewhat bizarre INTsplosion in a half season in 2010.  It could be that +2 is closer to the new normal for the Ravens.

I would like to point to Arizona.  A team I already thought was a bit remarkable, going 8-8 with no quarterback and trying to overcome heavy losses from the ’10 offseason.  Additionally we see that their TO margin also dove.  While this could directly correspond to their personnel problems, it could also point to a team that suffered bad luck and might be worth a couple more wins.

Finally, looking at Denver.  This is an interesting team.  Made the playoffs (and won a game!) last year with an absurd run of 4^th quarter comebacks.  Now they’ve replaced their awful QB with an all-time great.  It is impossible to predict exactly what Peyton will be, but it is fairly easy to project that he will be better than Ortonbow.  This is a team that could take dramatic steps forward, given the right Manning, similarly to Minnesota in Favre’s penultimate season.

Not predicting, just predicting.

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The Collapse of a Division Leader

Today the Arizona Cardinals will be trotting out John Skelton to play sacrificial lamb under center. Skelton is known most for his works as a satirist poet and tutoring Prince Henry. Apparently he's not as well known for having been reborn as a football player hailing from Fordham...

Fordham. ESPN announced this morning that Skelton would start for the Cards, and they posted a graphic touting well known Fordham graduates. You know you're in a bad situation when ESPN is comparing your starting quarterback to other notables that graduated from their college, and Captain Kangaroo leads the list.

The Cardinals have been a spectacular failure this season. They've improved their win total each of the last three seasons, and in the previous two years they've won 19 regular season games, 4 post-season games and were a Ben Roethlisberger wink-and-a-prayer from winning the Superbowl.

Now, it's unfair to put all of their problems on the offense. Defensively, the Cards are 28th in yards allowed and have given up the most points in the league. But they've never been known as a defensive powerhouse. Last year, their best defensive season in five years, they were 14th in points allowed and 20th in yards allowed.

But it's the offensive collapse that's been simply spectacular. Part of it has to do with some of the positional turnover. The loss of Anquan Boldin being the second most major loss on offense this off-season for them. But it's without question the loss of Warner, and the franchise's inability to account for it, that has crushed the life out of them in a pathetically weak division.

During Warner's tenure as the primary starter, their offense averaged in the top ten and was one of the best in the NFL in '08. He completed over 65% of his passes for over 7.5 YPA, threw a TD every 21 att and a pick one out of 36 tosses. Compare this with the Cards passers this season, which are completing 51.5% for 6.1 YPA, throwing a TD every 51.5 passes and a pick in half as many attempts. The result has been a predictable plunge from the upper echelon of the offenses in the league into the bottom two in points scored and yards gained.

The real issue has to be that the Cards are showing the signs of being the same old whipping boy organization it's always been, making poor decisions and allowing good players to walk without replacing them with other good players. Obviously Warner wasn't able to be retained. But when your contingency plan includes hoping Matt Leinart - a career 71 rated passer after four seasons - turns into a good option, signing Derek Anderson - who's career includes 3 awesome games and a ton of terrible ones - to compete and picking up whoever off the street happens to be able to have a working arm to throw a ball, you have to expect what's actually happened.

It's got to be a disappointment in a division led by two teams that look like they'll both struggle to finish .500. I'm struggling to remember a time that the opportunity to win a division has been so easily out there for the taking, and the collapse at one position has allowed that opportunity to be squandered.

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