Detroit Lions: Things I Got Right, Things I Got Wrong

I’m not a big fan of ‘I told you so’ posts and this isn’t intended to be one. With that said, I did add something at the end which probably is that type of statement.

Things I Got Right

Suh To me, picking Suh was the easiest, most obvious thing the Lions have done in a decade. When you can pick the best player in the draft and when that player fills a position of need then there is really no question about it.

Stafford I’ll put this out there, but it’s a bit weak. He surpassed my expectations for him this year in his limited time. I would have been happy to simply see progress, to see him start to recognize the game, to start to take what’s given. Instead he bought all the way in, stopped trying to force the ball on every drive, took what defenses gave and became a solid NFL quarterback with considerable remaining upside. However, when I was worried about whether Stafford could succeed in Detroit, one of my main concerns was that he would get killed. So far, he has. Some of it is a testament to his stubbornness, to trying to make plays, but this is still something he has to learn; that he can’t always be the guy, that in the NFL discretion usually beats valor. Maybe with the two shoulders this year, he will come back subdued and complete his evolution to NFL star.

Backus/Raiola I defend these guys and defend them. I don’t think most fans here appreciate how much worse many teams have it. Sure, it would be great to have a Jake Long or Ryan Clady, but last I checked their teams aren’t doing well and their quarterbacks got knocked out too. Neither of these guys are great and both of them will have to be replaced eventually, but they are also both players a team can win with.

Shaun Hill I’ve been a fan for years and he did nothing to let me down. Other than transition time, there is really no drop off with him under center. It’s a different type of offense, but definitely no less effective. He threw too many picks. I thought the one yesterday was terrible, considering how the game was going. Otherwise though he is smart, he finds open receivers, he will make plays with his legs when he has to. The team averaged 1.7 more ppg with him in the game than out. He doesn’t fumble much or take too many sacks. He’s just a heady player who I really like.

Things I Got Wrong

Suh Even though I was right about the pick, I was absolutely wrong about the impact that he’d have. He could have had 50% of his statistical production and I would have been delighted. I fully expected that he would have to grow into his role. Instead he is already the rare type of player who makes the entire team better. Not just his unit, not just the defense, the entire team. He gets the defense off the field, he prevents offenses from going 5-wide, he gives the offense field position. The Lions haven’t had a player this dynamic at this stage of his career for 20 years. The next decade is going to be amazing.

Corey Williams While I believe that some of Williams’ play can be attributed to the guy standing next to him, not all of it can. Williams was a force, both with Suh in and out of the lineup. I thought he might be solid, and a gap solution. Instead he appears to be a multi-year starter still capable of playing with the best in the conference at his position. With Hill behind them, the center of the Lions’ defense looks very bright for the next half decade.

The Defensive Backfield Funny. For many years I have believed that scheme trumps talent, and when it comes to other teams I’ve still believed it, but I lost faith when it came to the Lions. Despite my belief in the coaching staff, I fell into my old beliefs about the Lion curse (or whatever). Well, I am glad to say that again, scheme trumps talent. I still don’t think the Lion corners are very good, and I definitely don’t think the guys who were playing at the end of the year are very good, but it didn’t matter. With the havoc being created up front the demands on cornerbacks and other pass defenders were reduced to a point where they were able to manage receivers fairly well. Other than the 4th quarter onslaught by the Patriots, no team’s quarterback put a thumping on Detroit.

Where They Got Their Wins I was both wrong in the number and the way they would win games. I believed that the Lions would have to win their games in the first half of the season, that once injuries started eating into their depth that they would really have no chance. I was obviously wrong. As surprising as anything is how resilient this team was with depth players at key spots. I predicted 3-4 wins, simply because I couldn’t see them doing much better than 1-7 in the 2nd half.

Bryant Johnson Not a lot to say here. I really thought he would do well with the pressure off.

Drew Stanton Okay, he doesn’t completely suck donkey cock.

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Bustwatch: Day 1

Looks like little Matty Stafford was a wee bit inaccurate.

At Day 1 of the Lions' rookie orientation Friday, Stafford, by my count, completed both of his throws in 11-on-11 work, 7-of-13 passes in 7-on-7 and was 10-of-16 in 1-on-1 passing drills. His first pass in warmups was a wobbly toss to special teams assistant Brad Banta, but by and large he was crisp with his throws and appeared to make the right reads and progressions.

“What happens, and it's Matthew and it's probably 90 percent of the guys out here, when you go through a first practice as a rookie you're so anxious to get get going and you're out of control and things like that,” Lions coach Jim Schwartz said. “Then all of a sudden later in practice you start settling down a little bit. I think we saw that with Matthew today, just chomping at the bit early, was wild with some throws, but then he started settling into a groove, started working together with some of the wide receivers, then all of a sudden you started seeing some better things later on in practice.”

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The Tipping Point

Listening to Czabe Monday after the draft, he had Don Banks on. They discussed the lunacy of the Stafford deal, and were calling it the tipping point. This being the one contract that will essentially force everyone's hand in getting these contracts in line.

It's not a bad point. Take a look at the contracts of the #1 overall pick for the last ten years.

Name	# Yrs	Guar $ / Yr	Tot $ / yr
Matt Stafford	6	$7.0	$12.0
Jake Long	5	$6.0	$11.4
JaMarcus Russell	6	$5.3	$10.2
Mario Williams	6	$4.4	$9.0
Alex Smith	6	$4.0	$8.3
Eli Manning	7	$2.9	$7.7
Carson Palmer	7	$1.4	$7.0
David Carr	7	$1.6	$6.6
Michael Vick	6	$0.5	$10.3
Courtney Brown	6	$1.8	$7.5

The numbers are frankly pretty sick, in particular the guaranteed money. In ten years, the guaranteed money has increased almost 4x, and the total money has increased 60%. The last four years (somewhat arbitrary, but skips the massive jump Smith saw over Eli), the guaranteed money has increased an average of 15% each year. That's market-busting. The same time frame has seen an average of 10% increase each year for total money.

In particular, the basic size of the compensation has gotten out of hand. Stafford has gotten nearly $42MM guaranteed, and $72MM total for six years. Compare this to a few other contracts for established QBs...
Tony Romo signed a 6 year, $67.4MM deal with $30MM guaranteed in 2007.
Peyton Manning signed a 7 year, $99.2MM deal with $34.5MM guaranteed in 2004.
Tom Brady signed a 6 year, $60MM deal with $26.5MM guaranteed in 2005.
Ben Roethlisberger signed an 8 year, $102MM deal with $33.2MM guaranteed in 2008.
Drew Brees signed a 6 year, $60MM deal with $20MM guaranteed in 2006.
Carson Palmer signed a 6 year, $94MM deal with $15MM guaranteed after the '05 season.
Donovan McNabb signed a 12 year, $115MM deal with $20.5MM guaranteed in 2003.

Manning and Palmer are the only ones on this list above that have more total money per year than Stafford. None of them have more guaranteed money or guaranteed money per year. The seven QBs I've listed above are pretty much unquestionably the best QBs currently playing in the NFL not still on their first contract.

Matthew Stafford, the guy who has a ton of questions surrounding him. The guy who may not have been the best QB prospect in this year's draft class. The guy who was picked number one overall in what was said to be the weakest draft class in years. A guy who has never played a down in the NFL.

Matthew Stafford is no lower than the third highest paid QB in the NFL.

There are two issues this creates. The first is a CBA / NFLPA issue, and will be addressed in CBA negotiations. These contracts are taking money away from the established veterans who have earned their paydays. It is virtually impossible to argue Alex Smith has earned the $35 - $40 million he's been paid so far. Russell, even if he turns into a solid QB in the next four years, has essentially wasted two years for the Raiders, which turns his deal from $5.3 guar/year and $10.2 tot/year into $8 guar/year and $15.25 tot/year, spreading his money out over four instead of six years. So far the NFLPA is playing this issue as a non-starter they don't care about, but as Patrick said to me, it'll simply be used as a nugget to concede to the owners in negotiations.

The second is that it turns the top picks into an incredible burden for teams, where it's typically supposed to be helpful for them. Take a look at Jimmy Johnson's well known draft value chart, put together well over a decade ago prior to these rookie deals going out of control. As an example, the Browns traded with the Jets, from #5 to #17. To do this, the Jets would have to give 750 points in value. Their 2nd round pick was worth only 410 according to this chart. Sure they gave up some players, but none are critical players. They would need to give another 340 points worth. Anyone here think the Jets could have gotten the #56 overall pick for those three players?

The Browns are the first team since 2004 to successfully trade a top five draft pick. The reason for that is fairly simple. It's not cause the talent isn't there (though that's true some years). It's that no one wants to take the chance that a guy they're gonna pay $8MM - $12MM per year busts, in addition to the multiple picks it would take to secure him.

And there-in lies the problem. Detroit was an historically bad team last year. If any team needs the ability to get the best prospect available, it's them. And yet the pick is a burden for them, because it takes so much money to sign the guy. If Stafford busts out, it has two terrible connotations for the team. First, they are cap strapped at least partially because of the deal, limiting their ability to sign additional help needed to get out of the gutter. Second, the money they've committed to him nearly forces him to start earlier than maybe he should, and makes it impossible to wash their hands of him early if all signs point to bust. This means he sucks longer for the team, hurting them further. Alex Smith is the perfect example of both of these issues.

I have to agree with Czaban/Banks. I think this deal will wind up being a tipping point in implementing a rookie salary cap or fixed scale of some sort. I think this will be a great thing both for the league, as well as for the teams picking at the top that need the help these picks are supposed to offer. With any luck, it happens next off-season.

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