When winning is losing

The Ravens played just well enough to beat what is possibly the worst team in the NFL and possibly the worst offense in the history of the modern NFL. I need to look at data, but the Browns are on pace to score only 139 points this season. For some perspective, through nine games, there are only two other teams that haven't yet scored 139 points (Raiders & Rams).

The Ravens look like a team going nowhere quickly. More concerning is the fact that the Ravens are a team that looks like they're about to enter a rebuilding phase, and comments from Ozzie Newsome give no indication that the front office is mentally preparing for anything other than attempting to plug a few holes to try to win a championship.

Ravens haters will relish it. But as a fan, I'm very concerned that starting next year, the team could take some pretty big steps back. It was the right decision to try to go for the championship this year. Coming off last season, they looked like a team that could shoot the moon. But that time looks like it's past. Last night, they were in a dog-fight with the lowly Browns. If they want to avoid more of those over the next five years, they need to come to terms quickly with the fact that they should be tearing down and readying for a rebuild.

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Any questions?

The Bengals have swept the Ravens and Steelers, and will almost certainly complete the sweep of the division in two weeks, in Cleveland.

They have 3 legitimately tough games left on their schedule: @Vikings, @Chargers, @Jets. This is a team that has a shot at the #2 seed in the conference (although I give the edge to the Pats).

What an amazing turnaround for this organization. I'm a little mystified as to how they pulled it off, though obviously Mike Zimmer and Cedric Benson are key ingredients. I'm so happy for Coach Marvin. I find I'm a little happy for the team, shockingly; it's because of watching Hard Knocks this preseason. Anyone else find themselves thinking of the little dude who leads them out onto the field at home games?

Coach Marvin is now 53-51-1 on his career in Cincinnati. The last Bengals coach over .500 was Forrest Gregg, who took them to the Super Bowl after the 1981 season and left the team after 1983. That's 25 years without a winner.

Coach Marvin's record in Cincinnati is better than Paul Brown's. Child, please.

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A look at Joe Flacco at mid-season

I’ve gotten my hands on a wealth of data through the entire NFL season, thanks to the Football Outsiders game charting project. Thanks to that data, I was able to cut down into some very specific data regarding Joe Flacco’s statistics. I’m not talking about his overall stats. I’m talking about being able to look at things like how he does on 3rd down with 3-9 yards to go when the opposition is winning. Thanks to this, I wrote an article for profootball24x7 (which I'll link here once it gets published).

I cut Flacco’s passing data using the following criteria:
- “No plays” (basically penalties accepted) were not considered
- Who’s winning – Baltimore, the opponent, or a tie game
- What down it is
- Result of the pass – Complete, incomplete, intercepted, sacked, intentional grounding or aborted snap
----- There was only one intentional grounding (in the Pats game) and one aborted snap (the Denver game, where the snap hit Heap)
- Distance to go for a first down
----- Long = 10+ yards
----- Med = 4-9 yards
----- Short = 3 or fewer yards
----- This was a somewhat arbitrary cut. C’est la vie.


So for instance, I can tell you that on third downs with 10 or more yards to go, when the Ravens are losing, Flacco is 5/8 for 56 yards, converting a first down two of the eight times and not throwing a TD nor an INT, and was sacked twice.

In addition, I’ve recorded the number of plays we’ve run in certain situations. Not surprisingly, when losing and facing 3rd and long, the Ravens have attempted a pass ten out of ten times.

Some general observations about some various situations…

Flacco’s 3rd down passing mirrors his complete passing stats.
On third downs, Flacco is 53/83 (64%) for 540 yards (6.5 YPA) with 5 TDs and 3 INTs for an 87.4 QB rating. This is comparable to his 90.2 overall rating, where the only measurable difference is in his YPA. He’s taken 5 of his 17 sacks (29%) on 3rd downs. But the Ravens have had only 88 third downs in 309 passing plays (28%).

Generally, it’s a good sign that Flacco is as good on third downs as he is on first, second and fourth downs. This is typically a pressure down, and defenses are typically playing the pass more frequently, especially in medium and long situations. He has converted 38 of all 88 attempts into first downs or touchdowns (43%). In third and medium/long situations, he’s converted 33 of 82 (40%).

When the Ravens are losing, Flacco is solid, but can improve
When playing from behind, it shouldn’t be too surprising to find that quarterbacks’ don’t perform as well. Typically a team has to pass more, so the defense is playing against the pass. The Ravens are no exception. They ran a passing play on 68% of all plays when losing, vs. 53% when tied or ahead.

Flacco’s passer rating is a paltry 76.4, but primarily due to the fact that his TD:INT ratio is fairly poor compared to the rest of the time. Flacco is 85/139 (61%) for 940 yards (6.8 YPA) with 3 TDs and 4 INTs. He’s taken 10 sacks.

Of note, much of the worst of his numbers was during the Bengals game. Flacco never ran a play when tied or ahead. The Bengals game was by far his worst game, completing 56% with 2 INTs and 4 sacks. Cut that game out, and Flacco’s numbers look like this:
67/107 (63%), 745 yards (7.0 YPA), 3 TDs and 2 INTs with 6 sacks
Once again, his stats look very similar to his full stats. Now, you can’t simply take that game out of the mix…it happened, and it was a poor performance. But in general, Flacco doesn’t perform too badly when losing.

However, there’s room for improvement. Take Peyton Manning as what could be considered the gold standard. Manning’s numbers this year when behind look like this:
96/133 (72%), 1,120 yards (8.4 YPA), 7 TDs, 1 INT and 5 sacks
His 111.7 rating is better than his 105.2 rating through the whole season. His 7:1 TD:INT ratio is gaudy. Ideally, we’d like Flacco when losing to be as good as he is when winning or tied. Honestly, we’d like him to be better, but it’s telling that even Peyton Manning isn’t much better when behind as when tied or ahead.

Flacco has been very impressive with medium yardage (4-9 yds)
This isn’t just third down. It’s any down, and that can include first downs when they’ve accepted a 5 yard penalty, or first and goal from the 4-9 yard line.

Flacco boasts an impressive 104.2 QB rating, albeit thanks to a stellar TD:INT ratio. His stats look like this:
63/101 (63%), 657 yards (6.5 YPA), 7 TD, 0 INTs, 3 sacks
Flacco converted 48 of 104 (46%). Compare this to his converting 108 of 309 (35%) total passing plays he’s run, and 53 of 185 attempts from long (10+ yards) situations (29%).

His performance with moderate yardage to go is his money situation; he’s a top flight QB when facing medium yardage to go. And interestingly, the Ravens run passing plays on 68% of these plays. His performance in these situations may have something to do with that.

Bottom line
In general, Flacco performs fairly well in tough situations, but has room for improvement. He’s young, and it’s good to see he’s playing as well as he is in these situations.

Better yet, I think we should expect that as Flacco matures – and hopefully gets better receivers eventually – we’ll see continued improvement in these numbers as well. Part of his education is hopefully going to involve playing better in the pressure situations, and we’ve already seen him playing fairly well in them.

It’s an encouraging sign that we have a legitimately good quarterback under center, not just one that’s good any time except when it counts.

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Mid-Season Musings

A few random thoughts on the season now that we're half-way through (for all but two teams)...

Best team - New Orleans Saints
No weaknesses anywhere to be found. Maybe their run defense a little bit. But it's not really easy to attack that because it's still a pretty good defense. Everywhere else is ridiculously strong.

Team most likely to rise up in the second half - Houston Texans
Two tough games down the stretch, the rest are definitely winnable. They're playing much better in a conference where a wild-card berth is pretty achievable at 10-6.

Team most likely to fade down the stretch. - Arizona Cardinals
Old in a lot of key places. And Warner going down would be a disaster for them. Leinart has shown an inability to get the job done, so I feel like if Warner goes down, that team could come unraveled quickly.

Most impressive season - Denver Broncos
Almost no one thought this team could win six games in the first half of the season. Made up of older players on defense, a questionable QB, and a HC and GM combo platter that ran a Pro Bowl cry-baby out of town and looked like they should be serving fries and sodas at a take-out window more than running a team, three wins was the optimistic situation. They've gone 6-2 against a tough slate, and looked impressive in the first half (even though I believe they'll fade down the stretch).

Most disappointing season - Tennessee Titans
I didn't expect them to be as good as they were last year. But I also didn't expect them to look like a bottom-feeder, either.

Most important player to his team - Peyton Manning
It's cliche to say, but really if you take him off the team, the Colts are maybe a .500 team at best, maybe way worse. He's having an incredible season, and making up for a complete lack of running game, and lack of run defense.
Troy Polamalu deserves a mention here as well. That defense looks completely different with him in there than without.

Best comeback - Cedrick Benson
What a story he's been. Cast off for dead, he comes back and re-dedicates himself to being the pick he was supposed to be coming out of the draft. He's a big reason for the Bengals' success this season.

Stupidest story-line - The Packers made the wrong decision letting Favre go
Have people watched Aaron Rodgers? Rodgers is playing as well if not better than Favre behind a swiss-cheese line, sacked twice as often as Favre. And let's not forget the difference between the Packers D and the Vikings D. Do people really believe the Pack would be 7-1 if Favre was still on the team?

Who will win the Superbowl - Saints over Steelers
And what a Superbowl it's going to be!

Who will win this coming off-season - Washington Redskins
Because that's what they do best.

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Brian Kelly: Maker Of Quarterbacks

You know it's a topsy turvy college football world when the best college football team in Michigan is in Mount Pleasant, when the best football team in Ohio is an hour south of Columbus and when the best football team in California is in the middle of Oregon.

But this isn't so much about that.

What this is about is the genius of Brian Kelly.

I only sometimes toot my own horn (that sounds like a euphemism) but one of those sometimeses is when the subject of Kelly comes up. I've been pimping him since he resurrected Grand Valley St. and turned them into the most successful college football program in the country. Something happened yesterday though that made me view Kelly in an entirely new light.

Zach Collaros happened.

So what is a Zach Collaros? That, dear reader, is an excellent question. I'll admit that I didn't know the kid from a grape either until last night, despite two outstanding starts in place of Tony Pike. In three starts he has now passed for 1028 yards while completing a modest 80% of his passes. Oh yeah, he is also 8/0 TD/INT in those starts. His passer rating in those games is 218. By comparison, the current NCAA leader is Kellen Moore out of Boise St. at a shade under 170. Tony Pike, the man he replaced, is 10th at 155.

Now in fairness, Collaros hasn't faced the stiffest of competition. Of the three teams he's started against only UConn has a shot at a bowl game. All Collaros did was save his best for them passing for 480 yards. In school annals only the immortal Greg Cook ever put up a bigger number.

And oh yeah, Collaros? He's a sophomore.

But back to Kelly. Here, in his third coaching stop, a pattern is really starting to emerge. The man is flat out a passing game genius. With GVSU he had two quarterbacks who were finalists for the Harlan Hill, including Curt Anes twice. Anes' 2001 team averaged 600 yards/game offense. With Central Michigan he recruited Dan LeFevour and turned him into a top NFL prospect. Taking over Cincinnati he plucked Pike off of the injury list and in a single year transformed him from 'decent college QB' to 'arguably the best QB prospect'.

While I'm sure Pike's injuries will knock him back down, the performance of Collaros simply cements Kelly's genius. No one will ever confuse Collaros for an NFL prospect. He is small and slight, and all he does is complete passes. In a way, the success of Collaros should throw up warning signs for NFL scouts who are looking at LeFevour or Pike who now seem much more like system quarterbacks than naturally gifted.

But who knows? Maybe Kelly (and longtime QB coach/confidante Greg Forest) do have the gift of turning good college QBs into elite NFL-caliber talents.

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Cincinnati

Tonight was the first chance I got to really see Cincinnati and Brian Kelly in action, and I wasn't disappointed.

It's clear from watching this team that it's excellently coached. The players are simply smart. Everything they do looks to me like the right move. And it goes beyond simply fundamentally sound football.

Brian Kelly is really an impressive coach. I can't imagine him not winning a National Championship at some time in the next decade or two, probably in Cinci. This team might get outplayed because of a lack of talent. But I find it difficult to think they'll ever be outcoached.

The play at the end of the half sort of epitomized this. Lined up for a FG with seconds left, but it wasn't 4th down. The holder - also their QB - bobbled the snap. Knowing he couldn't get it down clean, he quickly wheeled and threw a bullet out of bounds. It was intentional grounding, but they were basically at an xpt range anyway. Just smart.

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Chad

Once in the week before a game, Chad Ochocinco Johnson sent a gift basket to the Browns secondary: a case of Pepto Bismol. This week he sent a gift package to the Ravens secondary (and Terrell Suggs and Ray Lewis):

Roll-on deodorant.

That's pretty funny. “I not only sent them gift baskets, but I sent them something they could use so they don’t sweat,” Ochocinco said.

Chad gets funnier as the years go by.

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The Superiority of Football

So, I suppose congratulations are in order for the New York Yankees, cause they apparently did something that was at least supposed to be impressive.

Really all they did was show exactly why football is far more interesting than baseball.

There's a lot of discussion about this between some sports fans. Baseball lovers make fun of the brutal senselessness of football. Football lovers make fun of baseball's likeness to watching paint dry.

But one thing that is inarguable that football has and baseball doesn't? Parity.

No, it's not perfect parity. Yes, there are some dominant teams in football, just as there are in baseball. Football has the Patriots, Colts and Steelers like baseball boasts the Red Sox, Yankees and Cardinals.

But the difference is that in football, no one is buying championships.

Take a look at the Yankee team's salary vs. the rest of the league's. The Yankees boast a team salary 48% higher than the next highest team's salary. Only seven teams have more than half the payroll that the Yankees have. Three of the top four player salaries are paid by the Yankees. Six of the top twenty five are. Fifteen players on the Yankees roster made more in '09 than the league average $3.24MM.

This would be fairly similar to taking the Colts, and then taking the worst players on their roster, and replacing them with the best players on the Steelers roster. Let's stick Polamalu next to Bob Sanders, Casey Hampton stuck in the middle of the DL to help plug the run, and ... well, let's just take all the Steelers linebackers for good measure.

"Holy crap! How unfair is that?!?!?"

That's not unfair...that's the New York Yankees.

The other day as I was walking around upstairs I heard on ESPN they were interviewing a few people asking who they wanted to win the World Series. After a few answers, I heard one person say "I hope the Yankees win, cause they paid for a Championship, and you should get what you pay for."

This outcome wasn't just predictable, it was almost expected. It would have been a disappointing season with anything BUT a World Championship. Executives get fired when they lose to the Red Sox in the post-season.

Can anyone imagine Pioli getting fired for losing to the Colts?

What makes football infinitely more exciting than baseball is the not knowing. Not knowing who will be in the post-season each year. Not knowing who's going to get the big name free agents. Not knowing who's going to surprise. It makes the season far more interesting across the board.

It's probably one of the main reasons football has a far bigger following than baseball these days.

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Fire Snyder

http://fire-snyder-sign.blogspot.com/2009/10/fedex-field-sign-snyder-can-ban.html

Utterly.
Awesome.

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What the hell is going on in Cleveland?

Browns fire Kokinis!!!!

Did he fall or was he pushed? The AP story says:

left the team Monday under unexplained circumstances ... After reports surfaced that Kokinis was fired, the team issued an awkwardly worded statement saying Kokinis “is no longer actively involved with the organization.” The Browns also denied reports that Kokinis was escorted from team headquarters. Kokinis’ apparent ouster came one day after Browns owner Randy Lerner said he wanted to hire a “strong, credible, serious” football adviser ... Citing unnamed team and league sources, ESPN.com reported that Kokinis refused to resign when pressed by Lerner, who then persisted in seeking a dismissal “for cause.” The report said the team’s security and legal department were reviewing phone records to build its case against Kokinis.

What a cluster.

The arresting thing to me was that Lerner was trying to dig up reason to terminate Kokinis “for cause”. Also known as “pulling an Al Davis”. I think that's disgusting. If you realize that you've hired the wrong guy, just be a man about it. Don't try to invent a firing offense where none exists: the main fact is that you decided you wanted to move in a different direction. This is an area where Goodell should step in. Lane Kiffin, George Kokinis: just pay them and move on.

The story opines that the Brownies might hire Accorsi. Yeah, in their dreams. Good luck with that. I dunno, maybe it is possible: Kosar has a relationship. But Accorsi really retired. He walked away from a loaded Giants team, that went on to win the Super Bowl. And Randy Lerner better be careful what he wishes for. If he manages to hire a real GM, Lerner's precious Mangini is gone the next day.

How on earth is Mangini unscathed in all of this? Yuck.

When you read profiles or biographies of the great coaches across sports, one thing that shines thru is that coaching is a people business. Maybe even more so in pro sports than in college or high school: you can be more dictatorial in scholastic sports. Can't in the pros. The pre-eminient example of this might be Red Auerbach. Red sure as hell knew a basketball player when he saw one. But when you read him, what he talks about is how important it is to know your players personalities, and how you have to handle different people differently. Know what makes them tick. Don't lock yourself in with too many arbitrary rules, because they can rob you of the flexibility to deal with different players differently.

Mangini does not have one ounce of that capability in his makeup.

Y'know, ordinarily I wouldn't mind seeing a Ravens divisional opponent stumble around. But this is just unseemly. Plus Kokinis is a good guy (ex Ravens front office). He would not have been my choice as the guy to take the fall in that situation.

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