I am an ardent believer in Joe Flacco. A couple weeks ago I engaged in a lengthy back and forth banter on a Ravens discussion forum about predictions for Flacco's stats for this upcoming season. I basically went with: 3200-3400 yds with 22-24 TDs and 13-14 INTs
Last season, those numbers would have ranked: 13th-17th in yards
8th-10th in TD passes (12th if you say 21 TD passes)
I don't want to get into whether that's a reasonable or likely prediction for a 2nd-yr QB. I used a number of assumptions, including the major one that the level of performance we saw from Joe Cool over his last 11 regular season games last year was a true, repeatable performance. But mostly I went with my gut, not with any "science". But in the process I wondered: what does a decent, just-barely-in-the-top-10 passing offense look like? Who catches the passes, and what do their stats look like?
What kind of production do the wide receivers, backs and tight ends typically get, when a quarterback posts that kind of season?
I took stats from NFL.com, of the top 12 leading passers by yardage and TD passes over the last 10 years. Here's how they average out:Rank Yards TDs 1 4575.5 36.6 2 4316.8 32.2 3 4174.6 28.7 4 4010.0 26.9 5 3933.4 26.3 6 3856.2 25.2 7 3773.3 24.4 8 3657.2 23.5 9 3575.9 22.7 10 3448.6 21.3 11 3368.6 20.3 12 3320.7 19.2
This table says that, from 1999-2008 the average league-leader in passing yards threw for 4,576 yards; and the average leader in TD passes threw 37. The average 10th-placed passer by yardage threw for 3449 yards; 10th-place by TDs had 21 passing TDs. If you throw for 3321 yards with 19 TDs, that would on average place you 12th in the league in both categories, over the last 10 years.
Excel's TREND function shows an upward trend of about 23 yards per QB per year over the time period: so next year's prediction by TREND is about a hundred yards higher at each position than this average shows. Close enough.
Returning to Flacco for a moment, you'll notice that my yardage and TD predictions don't quite jibe with each other. Either I was too conservative in the yardage prediction, or too optimistic with the TD prediction (guess which one is most likely). If Joe were to pass for around 3200-3400 yards, then a more likely TD prediction for him would be something like 17-21. If he were to pass for 22-24 TDs, then it seems that might be good for 3600-3800 yards. So my prediction doesn't look too great: basically I have him in the top 10 in the league in the passing stats. Sure I think Joe is good; very good. But it's also true that Drew Brees is good, and Philip Rivers is good, and Jay Cutler and Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning and Kurt Warner and Donovan McNabb and Tony Romo and Super Bowl champ Ben Roethlisbugger. That guy Brady in Massachusetts is pretty decent.
By the way, 1999 seems to represent a natural cut-off in the passing data.
Maybe it's just an illusion, something that pops up in messy data. But just by eyeball it seems like something changed btw 98 and 99.
Anyway.
I was curious about the "decent" passing offense, or the decent-to-good offense. I decided that meant the QBs ranked #9 thru #12: almost making the top 10, or just barely in it. From the chart above, over the last 10 years that would be a range of QB yardage numbers between 3320 yards and 3575 yards; and from 19 to 23 TDs.
You may pause for a moment to observe how pathetically funny this is. A Ravens fun wonders what a decent offense would look like. And he has to go to the statistical record, because he's never seen one!
Study
PFR has data up thru 2007. I took QB seasons that were narrowly "similar" to that range of stats above: 3300-3600 yards, with 19-23 TDs. I did not adjust for INTs, or for passer rating; I just took the raw production totals. How often does a QB put up numbers like that?
There were 45 such seasons in the PFR data, starting with Johnny Unitas in 1963 and Joe Namath in 1966. That was a little farther back than I wanted to go, so I stuck with the past 20 years (actually 21). That gave me 29 such QB-seasons.
(You might have expected more, since I was going with the #9-10-11-12 guys in yardage and TDs each season. Shouldn't there have been 80 such seasons? 4 x 20? Remember that I required that BOTH the yardage and TDs fit into a narrow range. Very often a guy will be the #10 yardage passer, but a couple spots higher or lower in TDs: since not both stats are in the range, a season like that would be excluded from my list.)
Here are the 29 QB-seasons from 1988-2008:Phil Simms 1988 Brett Favre 1993 Steve McNair 2001 Neil Lomax 1988 Jeff Hostetler 1994 Steve McNair 2002 Randall Cunningham 1989 Scott Mitchell 1997 Jeff Garcia 2002 Dave Krieg 1989 Dan Marino 1998 Matt Hasselbeck 2004 Steve Deberg 1990 Trent Green 1998 Kerry Collins 2004 Dan Marino 1990 Jon Kitna 1999 Philip Rivers 2006 Jim Kelly 1992 Elvis Grbac 1999 Eli Manning 2007 Troy Aikman 1992 Kurt Warner 2000 Jay Cutler 2007 Jim Everett 1992 Donovan McNabb 2000 Donovan McNabb 2007 Warren Moon 1993 Mark Brunell 2001
The average QB line for this group was:
287 of 488 (59%) for 3399.3 yds with 21.3 TDs and 14.5 INTs, 7.0 ypa , passer rating 82.3.
Max 3563 yards, 23 TDs.
Min 3303 yards, 19 TDs.
Could not really ask for seasons more similar to my original prediction for Joe: at the high end for yards, one off at the low end for TDs. (I predicted a higher ypa for Joe, so I had a higher QB rating.)
So then I looked at the performances of the #1 WR (by yardage) on those teams, and the #2 and #3 receiver; also the top RB (by receiving yardage) and the top TE (by receiving yardage). Note that the top RB by receiving yardage is not necessarily the team's top RB. In fact it's usually not: it's the 3rd-down back or the FB.
• I excluded the 2000 Rams of Kurt Warner from the study. Warner put up his stats in 10 or 11 games; Trent Green started the rest of the way, and the composite QB line for the season was like 5500 yds (!) with 37 TDs. Not at all comparable to the kinds of QB seasons I was looking for. Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce combined for 3000 yds all by themselves; Marshall Faulk and Az Hakim added quite a bit more.
• I also excluded the 1988 Cards of Neil Lomax. Lomax played 14 games, so you'd think the data would be "good enough": but the top 5 receivers accounted for 102% of Lomax's yards and 105% of the TDs. Cliff Stoudt threw for ~750 yards with 6 TDs that year: the offense had almost 4200 yards passing with 26 TDs. The season is a little too good to fit in with the others.
• The 1993 Titans of Warren Moon played the run-&-shoot; no TE got a single receiving yard, as far as I can tell. (Did they even have a TE on the roster?) They did complete one 13-yd pass to an offensive lineman. For purposes of the study, I pretended their #4 WR (Curtis Duncan) was the TE.
Here is what I wanted to know: when a QB has a statistical line like that, what kind of production does the team get from the WR corps, and the backs & TEs? What do the #1 receiver, #2 receiver et al, all post in a decent-to-good season like this?
Results
Here are the average receiving yards and TDs for the 5 positions I looked at on those 27 teams:Position Yards TDs #1WR 1017.8 6.7 #2WR 649.9 5.0 #3WR 368.6 1.9 #1RB 357.0 1.7 #1TE 459.6 3.1
• Brian Westbrook throws off the RB averages a little. The median RB yardage is 284.
• Likewise Antonio Gates throws off the TE averages: the median TE yardage is 383.
•These 5 players accounted for about 85% of the QB's total production in those seasons: 83.9% of the yardage, 85.1% of the TDs.
So that's the typical decent-to-good passing offense, good for #9 to #12 in the league in yardage and TDs. A thousand-yard receiver with 7 TDs, a #2WR with 650 yds and 5 TDs, a #3WR who kicks in 370 yds and 2 TDs; plus a back with about 300 yds receiving and a couple TD catches (probably the FB or 3rd-down back), and a TE with about 400 yds and 3 receiving TDs.
Looking at the list of teams (data at bottom of post) shows that there are a number of ways to skin the cat on offense. There were some true #1 receivers in the data: Michael Irvin at 1400 yds, Sterling Sharpe (who I think belongs in the Hall of Fame), Tim Brown near his peak, Herman Moore (who probably should also be in the Hall), Jimmy Smith, Derrick Mason when he was making Pro Bowls in Tennessee, Terrell Owens with 1300 yds and 13 TDs with San Francisco, Plaxico in 2007 when he caught 12 TDs, Brandon Marshall.
But there were also some true West Coast dink-and-dunk offenses: McNabb's Eagles, Hasselbeck's Seahawks, possibly the Chiefs with Deberg and later Elvis. And also some offenses built around Hall-of-Fame (or at least Pro Bowl) caliber talent at the backs and TEs: Chargers with Gates and LDT, Chiefs with Tony Gonzalez, Randall's 1989 Eagles with Keith's Jackson & Byars. Brian Westbrook, of course. No one ever talks about this guy, but FB John L. Williams had a 3-yr stretch in the late 80s / early 90s where he was over 650 yds receiving for Chuck Knox's Seahawks, and then 4 more years at 500. A valuable, productive player.
There were only two cases (out of 27) were a #2 WR was over a thousand yards: Scott Mitchell 1997 (Johnnie Morton) and Mark Brunell 2001 (Keenan McCardell). I think in general when your #2 WR puts up a thousand, you have a more productive passing offense than the "adequate" stratum we're looking at here: maybe top 5.
In general I was surprised how little the #3 WR contributed. Several of those totals were below 300 yds, a couple below 200. On the other hand, there was a Pro Bowl caliber TE very often. Not just the obvious guys like Gates & Gonzalez, but Mark Bavaro, Keith Jackson, Ferrell Edmunds, Jay Novacek, Stephen Alexander, Chad Lewis, Frank Wycheck, Shockey. More of these teams had such a player than didn't; many of the guys who never made a Pro Bowl were nevertheless pretty damn productive in the seasons I looked at (Jackie Harris, Jerramy Stevens). The productive pass-catching TE seems to be important.
(It would be nice if Todd Heap could start putting up big numbers again.)
Ravens
My original interest in this was whether this year's Ravens squad had enough firepower for a passer to post stats similar to the #9-10-11-12 passer rankings. Substituting in the appropriate Ravens:study average Ravens career high position yards TDs position yards TDs #1WR 1017.8 6.7 Mason* 1087 5 #2WR 649.9 5 Clayton 939 5 #3WR 368.6 1.9 D Williams 396 2 #1RB 357 1.7 Rice/McGahee 273 0 #1TE 459.6 3.1 Heap 855 7 - total 3550 19 - pctg 83.9% 85.1% - multiplied 4229.9 22.3
This says that if every Raven were to hit their career high, and assuming the normal percentages from above, then Flacco would throw for 4230 yards with 22 TDs. !
I didn't use Mason's career high, which was set when he was much younger, making Pro Bowls in Tennessee; but rather his high with the Ravens. That's the number shown in the table above (2007). Heap's career high (2005) is a pretty aggressive number to use, since he's been to the Pro Bowl twice (could have been three times; but the year he had his career highs, Gates & Gonzalez exploded). His career averages are 538 yards and 4 TDs, which includes some years where he missed extensive time due to injury. If you plug in those for Heap instead of his career high, you get a muliplied total for the QB of 3852 yards with 19 TDs.
A few things would have to break right for this Ravens squad; but I am surprised by how achievable those numbers are. Not that I'm saying it's likely every Raven will set a new career high (though in my heart of hearts I believe that can easily happen, given how limited the Ravens offenses were under Billick). But the Ravens clearly have enough talent at the receivers and backs to be a decent-to-good offense. It really just depends on the QB play.
In particular
Two offenses of particular interest to Ravens fans: the 1998 Redskins of Trent Green, and the 1992 Rams of Jim Everett.
• 1998 Redskins
Cam Cameron had been the QB coach under Norv. This was 2 seasons after these Redskins sent Gus Frerotte to the Pro Bowl, and Cameron was gone, coaching Indiana. Trent Green was in his 5th or 6th season, having attempted only 1 career pass (the year before). They had Terry Allen (700 yds) and Skip Hicks running the ball. Their leading receiver was Michael Westbrook with 736 yds. They had other useful players like Stephen Alexander & Brian Mitchell, plus a few young guys who would later turn into real players (Stephen Davis, James Thrash, Mike Sellers). But this was not an explosive group.
Green went 278 of 509 (55%) for 3441 yds (6.8 ypa) with 23 TDs and 11 INTs (rating 82).
(Also took 49 sacks that year, leading the league. Ouch.)
• 1992 Rams
In Cam Cameron's press conference last year, after Joe got drafted, Jim Everett was one of the QBs Cam specifically mentioned as having developed in the system he was running. Norv had been the WRs/TE coach here, but had left to go to Dallas. Ernie Zampese was still the OC. Jim Everett was in his 7th season, having gone to a Pro Bowl a couple years before (he probably deserved it earlier). They got 1100 yds rushing out of Cleveland Gary, who never came near that number again. The leading receiver was old Henry Ellard, with 727 yds. Flipper Anderson was only 27, but he must have had an injury or something a few yrs before: looks like his speed was gone.
Everett went 281 of 475 (59%) for 3323 yds (7 ypa) with 22 TDs and 18 INTs (rating 80.2).
There are lots of ways to get it done on offense.
People (including Chris!) need to be more optimistic about this year's Ravens team. ;-)
_________________________
Data
Below is the underlying data for the QB seasons under discussion.
In the tables, the numbers below the QB's name are his stat line for the year:
comp/att (pct) for yards with TD/INT rating.Phil Simms, 1988 Giants | Randall Cunningham, 1989 Eagles 263/479 (55%) for 3359 with 21/11 r 82.2 | 290/532 (55%) for 3400 with 21/15 r 76 Position Player Yards TDs | Position Player Yards TDs #1WR Lionel Manuel 1029 4 | #1WR Cris Carter 605 11 #2WR Stephen Baker 656 7 | #2WR Ron Johnson 295 1 #3WR Mark Ingram 158 1 | #3WR Mike Quick 228 2 #1RB Maurice Carthon 194 1 | #1RB Keith Byars 721 0 #1TE Mark Bavaro 672 4 | #1TE Keith Jackson 648 3 Dave Krieg, 1989 Seahawks | Steve Deberg, 1990 Chiefs 286/499 (57%) for 3309 with 21/20 r 74.5 | 258/444 (58%) for 3444 with 23/4 r 96.3 Position Player Yards TDs | Position Player Yards TDs #1WR Brian Blades 1063 5 | #1WR Tommy Kane 776 4 #2WR Paul Skansi 488 5 | #2WR Brian Blades 525 3 #3WR Steve Largent 403 3 | #3WR Jeff Chadwick 478 4 #1RB John L. Williams 657 6 | #1RB John L. Williams 699 0 #1TE Robert Tyler 148 0 | #1TE Ron Heller 157 1 Dan Marino 1990 | Jim Kelly 1992 306/531 (58%) for 3563 with 21/11 r 82.9 | 269/462 (58%) for 3457 with 23/19 r 81.1 Position Player Yards TDs | Position Player Yards TDs #1WR Mark Duper 810 5 | #1WR Andre Reed 913 3 #2WR Mark Clayton 406 3 | #2WR James Lofton 786 6 #3WR Tony Martin 388 2 | #3WR Thurman Thomas 554 2 #1RB Troy Stradford 257 0 | #1RB Thurman Thomas 626 3 #1TE Ferrell Edmunds 446 1 | #1TE Pete Metzelaars 298 6 Troy Aikman, 1992 Cowboys | Jim Everett, 1992 Rams 302/473 (64%) for 3445 with 23/14 r 89.6 | 281/475 (59%) for 3323 with 22/18 r 80 Position Player Yards TDs | Position Player Yards TDs #1WR Michael Irvin 1396 7 | #1WR Henry Ellard 727 3 #2WR Alvin Harper 562 4 | #2WR Flipper Anderson 657 7 #3WR Kelvin Martin 359 3 | #3WR Jeff Chadwick 362 3 #1RB Emmitt Smith 335 1 | #1RB Cleveland Gary 293 3 #1TE Jay Novacek 630 6 | #1TE Jim Price 324 2 Warren Moon 1993 | Brett Favre 1993 303/520 (58%) for 3485 with 21/21 r 75 | 318/522 (61%) for 3303 with 19/24 r 72.3 Position Player Yards TDs | Position Player Yards TDs #1WR Webster Slaughter 904 5 | #1WR Sterling Sharpe 1274 11 #2WR Ernest Givins 887 4 | #2WR Mark Clayton 331 3 #3WR Haywood Jeffires 753 6 | #3WR Robert Brooks 180 0 #1RB Gary Brown 240 2 | #1RB Edgar Bennett 457 1 #1TE Curtis Duncan 456 3 | #1TE Jackie Harris 604 4 Jeff Hostetler 1994 | Scott Mitchell 1997 263/455 (58%) for 3334 with 20/16 r 80.9 | 293/509 (58%) for 3484 with 19/14 r 79.9 Player Yards TDs | Position Player Yards TDs #1WR Tim Brown 1309 9 | #1WR Herman Moore 1293 8 #2WR Rocket Ismail 513 5 | #2WR Johnnie Morton 1057 6 #3WR Alexander Wright 294 2 | #3WR Tommie Boyd 142 0 #1RB Harvey Williams 391 3 | #1RB Barry Sanders 305 3 #1TE Andrew Glover 371 2 | #1TE David Sloan 264 0 Dan Marino 1998 | Trent Green, 1998 Redskins 310/537 (58%) for 3497 with 23/15 r 80.2 | 278/509 (55%) for 3441 with 23/11 r 82.1 Position Player Yards TDs | Position Player Yards TDs #1WR OJ McDuffie 1050 7 | #1WR Michael Westbrook 736 6 #2WR Oronde Gadsden 713 7 | #2WR Leslie Shepherd 712 8 #3WR Lamar Thomas 603 5 | #3WR Albert Connell 451 2 #1RB Bernie Parmalee 221 0 | #1RB Stephen Davis 263 2 #1TE Troy Drayton 334 3 | #1TE Stephen Alexander 383 4 Jon Kitna, 1999 Seahawks | Elvis Grbac, 1999 Chiefs 270/495 (55%) for 3346 with 23/16 r 78.1 | 294/499 (59%) for 3389 with 22/15 r 81.7 Position Player Yards TDs | Player Yards TDs #1WR Sean Dawkins 992 7 | #1WR Derrick Alexander 832 2 #2WR Derrick Mayes 829 10 | #2WR Joe Horn 586 6 #3WR Mike Pritchard 375 2 | #3WR Kevin Lockett 426 2 #1RB Ricky Watters 387 2 | #1RB Tony Richardson 141 0 #1TE Christian Fauria 376 0 | #1TE Tony Gonzalez 849 11 Donovan McNabb, 2000 Eagles | Mark Brunell 2001 330/569 (58%) for 3365 with 21/13 r 77.8 | 289/473 (61%) for 3309 with 19/13 r 84 Position Player Yards TDs | Position Player Yards TDs #1WR Charles Johnson 642 7 | #1WR Jimmy Smith 1373 8 #2WR Torrance Small 569 3 | #2WR Keenan McCardell 1110 6 #3WR Todd Pinkston 181 0 | #3WR Sean Dawkins 234 0 #1RB Darnell Autry 275 1 | #1RB Elvis Joseph 183 2 #1TE Chad Lewis 735 3 | #1TE Kyle Brady 386 2 Steve McNair, 2001 Titans | Steve McNair, 2002 Titans 264/431 (61%) for 3350 with 21/12 r 89.9 | 301/492 (61%) for 3387 with 22/15 r 83.8 Position Player Yards TDs | Position Player Yards TDs #1WR Derrick Mason 1128 9 | #1WR Derrick Mason 1012 5 #2WR Kevin Dyson 825 7 | #2WR Drew Bennett 478 2 #3WR Drew Bennett 329 1 | #3WR Kevin Dyson 460 4 #1RB Eddie George 279 0 | #1RB Eddie George 255 2 #1TE Frank Wycheck 672 4 | #1TE Frank Wycheck 346 2 Jeff Garcia, 2002 Niners | Matt Hasselbeck, 2004 Seahawks 328/528 (62%) for 3344 with 21/10 r 85.5 | 279/474 (59%) for 3382 with 22/15 r 83.3 Position Player Yards TDs | Position Player Yards TDs #1WR Terrell Owens 1300 13 | #1WR Darrell Jackson 1199 7 #2WR Tai Streets 756 5 | #2WR Bobby Engram 499 2 #3WR J.J. Stokes 332 1 | #3WR Koren Robinson 495 2 #1RB Garrison Hearst 317 1 | #1RB Shaun Alexander 170 4 #1TE Eric Johnson 321 0 | #1TE Jerramy Stevens 349 3 Kerry Collins 2004 | Philip Rivers, 2006 Chargers 289/513 (56%) for 3495 with 21/20 r 74.5 | 284/460 (62%) for 3388 with 22/9 r 92.2 Position Player Yards TDs | Position Player Yards TDs #1WR Jerry Porter 998 9 | #1WR Eric Parker 659 0 #2WR Ronald Curry 679 6 | #2WR Vincent Jackson 453 6 #3WR Doug Gabriel 551 2 | #3WR Keenan McCardell 437 0 #1RB Amos Zereoue 284 0 | #1RB LaDainian Tomlinson 508 3 #1TE Doug Jolley 313 2 | #1TE Antonio Gates 924 9 Eli Manning, 2007 Giants | Jay Cutler 2007 297/529 (56%) for 3336 with 23/20 r 73.8 | 297/467 (64%) for 3497 with 20/14 r 88.4 Position Player Yards TDs | Position Player Yards TDs #1WR Plaxico Burress 1025 12 | #1WR Brandon Marshall 1325 7 #2WR Amani Toomer 760 3 | #2WR Brandon Stokley 635 5 #3WR Sinorice Moss 225 0 | #3WR Javon Walker 287 0 #1RB Derrick Ward 179 1 | #1RB Selvin Young 231 0 #1TE Jeremy Shockey 619 3 | #1TE Tony Scheffler 549 5 Donovan McNabb 2007 | 291/473 (62%) for 3324 with 19/7 r 90.3 | Position Player Yards TDs | #1WR Kevin Curtis 1110 6 | #2WR Reggie Brown 780 4 | #3WR Jason Avant 267 2 | #1RB Brian Westbrook 771 5 | #1TE LJ Smith 236 1 |
Thursday, August 6, 2009
An Adequate Offense
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