The Enemy of My Enemy...

J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS!!!

FWIW, I hear a lot of Baltimore fans talking about how lucky the Steelers are because of how easy a path they have to get to the Superbowl. What a laugher. The Bears are clearly the luckies team ever. They get ridiculously lucky in a handful of games to pull out wins, pick up the 2 seed for a bye, then get Seattle in their first game. Now all they need to do is get by a 6 seed - admittedly a very good one - to make it to the SB, where they may wind up facing another 6 seed.

But as I was saying...
J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS!!!

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Bulger, Martz and not wanting to disturb Cutler

Over on the Ravens site I read, the admin noted that it was interesting the Bears - with Martz, wh has a connection with Bulger - weren't interested in him.

"It’s a bit interesting that the Chicago Bears didn’t make a play for Marc Bulger. Given Bulger’s ties to Mike Martz one might safely conclude that the fit was a natural. Could Martz know something that the Ravens don’t?"

I'm actually not convinced this was anything more than a play to keep from disturbing Cutler. Let's think back to a year and a half ago, when Josh McDaniels apparently inquired about Matt Cassel. We all remember the subsequent Cutler hissy-fit, right? A prolonged, ugly fight developed which resulted in Cutler crying his way out of town where the Broncos salvaged the situation by turning the guy who led the NFL in INTs last year into Kyle Orton, Knowshon Moreno, a complicated set of traded picks that probably just resulted in some portion of the Tim Tebow pick and maybe a handful of other stuff. Neither team made out particularly well in the deal although we can probably best say the Broncos got screwed least.

Bottom line though, bringing Bulger into Chicago would have brought about questions of whether or not Cutler was going to get pushed for his starting job. We can safely assume Cutler doesn't react well to being pushed for his job, and the Bears aren't likely to trade a guy they just extended to 2013 for $30MM. So the lack of even inquiry there is probably more due to not wanting to rock the boat than anything else.



Bulger, on the other hand, brings immediate legitimacy to the Ravens backup QB spot. Word was that Flacco was actually more hurt than many were led to believe last year, and that if they were confident at all in their backup QBs, they'd have sat him for a couple games to let him heal. The Ravens almost seem to be taking an "all in" attitude toward this season. They've beefed up their weakest position by bringing in Boldin and Stallworth (and retaining Mason). And now they've added significant depth where they had poor depth prior to this year; both by signing Bulger at QB, and by signing Ken Hamlin and Walt Harris in their defensive backfield. It could be argued Harris and Hamlin may be a move to protect whether or not Ed Reed will retire, but that still seems unlikely at least for now. But either way, they've added some significant pieces to a roster that has already taken them to three playoff game wins the previous two seasons. They clearly seem to be gearing up for a major push this season.

I actually somewhat wonder how much may be related to wanting to win prior to the prospective lock-out...

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Weather hits the NFL

This morning there were reports that the Bears didn't make it to Baltimore for their game on Sunday. I live in Richmond, and was planning on coming up for this game. Thanks to VA being in a state of emergency, I won't be going up tomorrow. I'm not even certain I'll be able to drive out of my neighborhood even if I wanted to.

The game was already moved to 4 PM due to the weather. But it might be interesting if the Bears can't get in until Sunday afternoon. Do they push it to Monday night? If they do have to push it, when will it be broadcast? In Richmond, the Skins are the team with primary coverage, so they'd broadcast that game if only on one channel...but FOX may still have rights to the game so I might luck out and get it anyway.

Either way, it's good and bad for the Ravens and all bad for the Bears. The Bears have plans disrupted and may have to fly in tomorrow morning which should mean Cutler would be likely yawning through his huddles. The Ravens get to face them which is good, but bad because they face the Steelers on a short week.

Weather sucks.

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Bears Receiving Corps - Impacts of Cutler

This article by SI’s Don Banks got me thinking. What’s a good season for Jay Cutler this year? What would make people in Chicago say, “We got a good deal?” There’s little doubt in my mind that Cutler – who has a 63% completion rate for about 8,000 yards and 45 TDs vs. 32 INTs the last two seasons – will not hit those numbers again this year. But what would be good for him?

If Chicago’s going to pass the ball more … a LOT more, according to this article … then how can we define success? My personal feel would be around 3,500 yards, 20 TDs and 14 INTs – that’s basically his ’07 season – would be a good starting spot.

So the question is, who’s the beneficiary of those 500 yards and 2 TDs over what Orton did last year? With no receivers with more than 665 yards last season, there’s got to be someone that can pick up, right? Yeah, this is sort of turning into a fantasy football post…

I think the primary beneficiary almost has to be Greg Olsen. He’s coming into his 3rd year, and (according to the above article) is developing quite a rapport with Cutler. More particularly, he’s their best receiver. Let’s call it a move from 574 yards to 800 yards. 5 TDs is still good, but I could see 6 or 7.

Matt Forte is probably another one, though it’s tough for me to see a RB improving on the 63 catches (top on the team) and 477 yards. He was third in receiving yards for RBs last year. Still, he could get more shots at it. Let’s bump him up to 550ish.

That’s about 300 of the yards. Which gives another 200 to spread among the WRs. Hester probably gets a majority of those unless you think someone from that crappy group is suddenly going to go insane. Still, that puts Hester around 850 yards for the year. Yawn…

The Bears passing game should be pretty interesting to watch next year. It’s possible Cutler does a good bit better than this. It’s quite possible he actually comes closer to 4,000 yards on the season. Last year he had 4,500 yards and 25 TDs. So 3,750 yards and 22 TDs shouldn’t at all be shocking. Suddenly the Bears would have some viable FFL options in the passing game. And if he hits 4,000 yards, there will definitely be at least two.

No guesses on what he’ll actually do. But I do think it’s safe to bet the passing game will be better this year than last by a somewhat significant margin. Olsen could have a big year.

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Bears, Oh My!

I think I gave a little short shrift to the Bears in our discussion yesterday. Partly because of my linear writing, partly because at first blush the Broncos have had a much more interesting off-season. With 9 picks in the first 90 the next two years Denver can go ahead and draft themselves an entire new defense to wrap around D.J. Williams and Champ Bailey if they wish, so yeah, interesting. But the Bears pose a much more interesting puzzle, one with missing pieces and a broken jigsaw. Let's take a look.

First the good: Cutler, Matt Forte, Greg Olsen. Tommie Harris is a fine DT. Lance Briggs is one of the best linebackers in football. Devin Hester is a plus player. Chris Williams (cross your fingers Bears fans) ready to step in at LT. They have two second round picks in the next two years and Angelo has a history of finding value in later rounds.

Now the not so good: 30, 31, 32, 28, 28, 28, 28. These are the ages of 7 of their starting defensive players. They have two 28 year old corners who are both pretty good, but 28 year old cornerbacks don't tend to have long lifespans in the NFL. Urlacher is 31. Alex Brown 30. The other guys are all no-longer-good-enoughs. Their projected starting safeties both are replaceable right now. Overall depth in the defensive secondary is lacking. Their offensive line will require a complete turnover. With the exception of Williams it is currently populated with the not-very-good (Josh Beekman), the-really-old (Pace, Kreutz), and the not-very-good-and-really-old (Roberto Garza). Their starting wide receivers are both below average. Neither would start as a #2 for most teams (I know, I'm not counting Devin Hester).

So it is an interesting conundrum for the Bears. How to fill all of these needs and rebuild without tearing the whole thing down and just restarting with Harris, Cutler, Forte and Williams? I don't pretend to know the answer nor am I prepared to offer a plan. Truth is, I'm not sure it can be done and this is a problem for Chicago. Yes, they filled the most important position in sport with a top-third player, and yes he is young and can be anticipated to fill the spot for many years. On the other hand though, Chicago almost certainly cannot win with this team. Injuries will take their toll on the older players and there will almost certainly be a deep talent gap between the starters and their reserves. Chicago will be significantly handicapped in their need to both get younger and meet needs. This year they have a 2nd round pick to fill one spot. I suppose it should come down to value, considering their many needs, but if they were to focus, where? Find a legitimate wide receiver? A legitimate safety? Draft one of the better interior linemen? Draft an OT to spell Pace after his inevitable injury? And forbid they whiff on the pick.

Even with an improving offense I think this is a team in decline. The trade will slow the decline - probably quite a bit - but that isn't necessarily good. It just means the bottom will come later and when it does it will probably be much uglier. Think a collapse of Seattlian proportion, when 70% of the team gets awful all at once.

Good luck Chicago, you'll need it.

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Shifting Power

With the completion of the Cutler deal I thought it would be fun to take a look at what it means for the AFC West and NFC North, the two divisions it effects the most, and particular the Broncos and Bears.

The AFC West was probably the weakest or second weakest division in football last year. With the trade of Cutler the dismantling of the Broncos appears to be complete. It is impossible to think that they have improved since December Since the end of the year Denver cut 14 players including several starters, most notably Dre Bly, while allowing 11 free agents to leave. They re-signed two of their own, along with the typical collection of NFL roster fillers. It is difficult to project their starters right now. They did sign Brian Dawkins, so there's one, but most of the rest of the team is a something of a mystery. With the impending suspension of Brandon Marshall and uncertainty surrounding Tony Scheffler's status we can only expect several Jabar Gafney and Correll Buckhalter sightings early in the year.

The upside for Denver is that they are returning all five offensive linemen and TE Daniel Graham, none of whom missed a game last year. Ryan Clady looks like a perrenial All-Pro. Eddie Royal, Marshall, Hillis, (potentially) Scheffler and a half dozen running backs provide the makings of an elite offense.

Orton is an outstanding solution for Denver, all things considered. We'll get to the Chicago offense momentarily, but if you blank a little on his targets that is perfectly understandable. What is overlooked is how efficient he was.

G   GS   QBrec   Cmp   Att   Cmp%   Yds   TD   TD%   Int

15   15   9-6-0   272   465   58.5   2972   18   3.9   12 

Project that to Denver's many weapons and you have a guy whose production is ... a lot like Cutler's.

The Denver defense was the downfall of the team and that's where the new braintrust scorched the earth. Their current starting depth chart only has five holdovers from last year, along with a reserve (Elvis Dumervill) who is being slotted in at a new position. The team brought in four thirty-plus defenders to start. Along with the Bailey brothers and end Kenny Peterson the Broncos are currently projecting to start seven players who are 30 or older on defense.

The realy haul from the Cutler deal though wasn't Orton, of course, it was the three draft picks that Cutler netted. With five picks in the first 83 and two more first rounders next year, the Broncos have the capacity to get healthy quickly.

As for the rest of the West, well it seems to be San Diego's division to lose. Usually when something is that obvious it doesn't work out that way but in this case the Chargers really have to be the prohibitive favorite. They had their usual underwhelming free agency period. A couple of starters walked, they became the only team to ever make two different backup running backs Franchise Players. They were right about Michael Turner so we'll see about Sproles. The most signficant change in their team is that Shawne Merriman will (presumably) return healthy in the fall. Otherwise though, the team is very similar to the '08 team that hit the rocks early and rebounded. The Chiefs are restarting their rebuild which began last year and the Raiders are mired in their typical turmoil. The only realistic challenge to the Chargers would be the Broncos and an awful lot would have to go right for Denver to compete this year.

~

Moving to the NFC North the first look is at Chicago. When I first heard about the deal I was very impressed, it seemed like both teams really came out ahead. Now I'm not so sure. Chicago's offense is not built for a vertical passing attack, it is built for a grind-it-out run and short passing game that emphasizes the running backs and tight ends. 58% of Chicago's completions went to backs and ends. Their most prolific wide receiver - Devin Hester - was also more of a short game receiver, running screens, slants and curls; trying to get the ball in space. Their "true" wide recievers accounted for 75 of Chicago's 300 completions.

This isn't to argue that Cutler isn't an upgrade over Orton. Of course he is. The real question is 'is Cutler an upgrade over Orton and a 1st round DT and a 1st round corner and a 3d round guard (or something)?' I think the answer to that is much less clear. If Chicago was a young team, lacking a quarterback to put together their run then this trade would make a ton of sense. As it stands, this team is no longer young. They still have a talented defense, but it is also a very veteran defense and prone to many more injuries and depth issues than they were when they went to the Super Bowl. The offensive line is due to be retooled and the team still doesn't have a legitimate #1 wide receiver. Normally these are holes that can be filled on the fly, but now Chicago will have to have perfect drafts to find the guys they need. I think this trade moves Chicago to the head of the class in the division, but really not by much. I do think it improves their playoff chances a bit, but that only from none to slim.

The rest of the North can't be particularly happy with this deal though. Chicago is certainly more dangerous than they were. They were tough but relatively one dimensional and not constructed for quick strike comebacks. They still aren't, but with Cutler the potential is far greater than it was with Orton

It is hard to say whether this trade alters any draft plans for Minnesota, Green Bay or Detroit. While the deal changes the entire dynamic of the division, it really shouldn't alter the way any of these teams plan for the upcoming season. Detroit is still going to try to for an influx of talent and to establish a representative competitive team. Minnesota is still going to struggle to develop a passing attack while they dominate lines of scrimmage. Green Bay is interesting, but mainly because they were probably the unluckiest team in football last year and are primed for a significant comeback. Once again, they are much more likely to draft the same player they would have drafted anyway.

~

Overall it seems that the AFC West is rocked much more than the NFC North, but this because of the enormous turnover in Denver, not simply because of this culminating trade. As always, the big moves always seem big but when they surprise it is usually because they disappoint.

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Profiles In Improvement

One of the perpetual arguments on Detroit Lions' message boards is whether the team should draft Matt Stafford with the first overall pick. I can think of a dozen reasons why it would be a bad idea, but that's beside the point. The one good thing about these types of arguments isn't that anything gets resolved; the Lions will draft who they draft regardless of message board heroism, and the only thing accomplished is positions entrenched. No the real benefit is that people dig so deep for arguments that occasionally a good tangential idea is synthesized as a by-product.

Without going into all of the details, an entire article unto themselves, I thought it would be interesting to go back to see teams that were particularly poor, who rapidly improved to 10 wins or more. My criteria is from 1990 to present, teams that had 15 or fewer victories over a three year stretch (all sub-.500 years) who proceeded to the playoffs within three years. At this point I have no idea how long this article will be. I'll just start with the "A"s and work my way down.

1989 Atlanta Falcons

It is easier to start with the '89 version of this team. 11 wins in 3 seasons. 1989 was Chris Miller's second NFL season and first as a full-time starter. After 1989 Dan Henning was fired and replaced with Jerry Glanville. Glanville won 5 games in his first season and then 10 in 1991.

How they did it: One thing they didn't do was to change quarterbacks. The team was coming off a series of weak drafts, with only Miller from '87, later rounder Michael Haynes from '88 and '89 1st rounder Deion Sanders making significant contributions to their recovery. The falcons held the first pick in the '90 draft, trading it (Jeff George) to Indianapolis for Andre Rison and the 23d overall pick, selecting rushing leader Steve Broussard and tackling linebacker Darion Conner. The '91 draft was outstanding with strong contributions from rookies Bruce Pickens (db), Mike Pritchard (wr) and Moe Gardner (dt). Glanville hired June Jones and installed the run-n-shoot with Miller/Rison/Pritchard/Broussard as the primaries. By 1991 they still had one of the league's worst defenses but the offense had improved 20 spots to 5th in the league and the team won ten games.

Did it stick? No. Glanville last two more seasons with back-to-back six win years. The Falcons traded two first-rounders back to the Colts to reacquire George. Since 1991 the team has had three ten win seasons.

1998 Chicago Bears

This was Dave Wannstedt's last season, coming off seven, four, and four win years to compete a relatively disappointing tenure as Ditka's replacement. He was replaced by Dick Jauron and the team showed little improvement in first two years, until the defense suddenly came together in 2001, moving from 20th to 1st in scoring while the team won 13 games.

How they did it: Honestly, it seems like a mystery. The scoring offenses and defenses jumped way up, the team finished 3d in the NFL in scoring differential in '01, despite the total offenses and defense only improving a small amount. Did they change quarterbacks? Did they ever. In '99 three different quarterbacks got starts, wtih Shane Matthews the 'official' starter, in '00 the same three got starts with second year quarterback Cade McNown getting the most. In their renaissance year of '91 the third stringer Jim Miller was the primary with 13 starts. Coming off of weak drafts in '96 and '97, '98 was fairly strong, despite the selection of Curtis Enis in the first round, with Tony Parrish (ss), Olin Kreuz (c) and Chris Draft (lb) all productive starters selected. The '99 draft was also strong, despite McNown with Marty Booker and Roosevelt Colvin among three starters who would contribute to the '91 team. '00 brought Urlacher, Mike Brown, Dez White and Paul Edinger, adding two pro-bowl defenders to the team. And '01 brought David Terrell and Anthony Thomas who both had very strong rookie campaigns, despite their later struggles.

Did it stick? Yes and no. Chicago has gone 56-56 since 2001 with a coaching change, but they have also gone to the Super Bowl. The defense slipped back to its prior levels in '92 and '93 before improving again to their Super Bowl levels. Offense has remained an afterthought. Ten quarterbacks have started games since the end of '91 and only for parts of '96 have they had a legitimate passing attack.

1989 Dallas Cowboys

1989 was Jimmy Johnson's first season with Dallas. They won one game that year, following seven and three win seasons at the end of Tom Landry's career. '89 was Aikman's rookie year. By 1991 they improved to 11 wins.

How they did it. The trade, of course. But maybe not. The Herschel Walker deal is widely credited with giving Dallas the players they needed to become dominant but it is less than clear that this is so. They did acquire picks used to draft Emmitt Smith ('90) and Darren Woodson ('92) so maybe that's enough. Most of the rest of the picks and a few playes went to acquiring the #1 overall pick in '91, Russell Maryland, who never met expectations. They had a lot less luck with the other players and picks they acquired. The fact is they already had one foundational draft in '98 with Aikman and also drafting key components of the great blocking team they would develop with Steve Wisniewski, Mark Stepnoski, and Daryl Johnston. They drafted Steve Walsh with the first pick in the supplemental draft who they traded for first and second round picks, one of which became Alvin Harper. They also already had a young Michael Irvin on the roster. Coupled with drafts of Smith and Jimmy Jones in '90 and then Maryland, Harper, Dixon Edwards, Erik Williams, and Leon Lett in '91, the team had ample talent to elevate and begin their run.

Did it stick? Yeah. Dallas made the playoffs the next five seasons, winning three Super Bowls, before fading out with two more playoff appearances at the end of the decade.

2002 Dallas Cowboys

After the dynasty of the '90s faded the 'boys shuffled coaches. The Dave Campo era ran from '00 to '02 with three consecutive five win seasons. After '02 Campo was fired and Parcells was brought in to right the ship. It took him all of one season to take the team from five wins to ten and a playoff berth, as the team defense improved from average to the best in the NFL.

How they did it. After terrible drafts from '99 to '01, the course was altered in 2002 with the team landing Roy Williams, Andre Gurode (g), and Antonio Bryant (wr) who each played significant roles on the ten win team. Parcell's first draft brought in Terence Newman, Al Johnson (c) and Jason Witten who all started as rookies. They also acquired Terry Glenn. Quincy Carter started all sixteen games before being jettisoned the following winter. Even with Glenn, Witten, and Bryant the offense was below average. Even with the #2 scoring defense the team only managed a 29 point scoring differential for the season. The defense drove the team. Roy Williams was All Pro, Dexter Coakley made his final Pro Bowl. La'Roi Glover was picked up from New Orleans prior to '02 and in '03 made his fourth of six consecutive Pro Bowl appearances.

Did It Stick? The team regressed in '04 but continued to build and climb. After a great draft in '05 they signed Terrell Owens, promoted Tony Romo and returned to the playoffs in '06. In '06 and '07 they had top five offenses (scoring and total) and were widely regarded as the best NFC team during th e'07 season. The discipline that Parcells brought seemed to wear off by '08 and we are all well familiar with the chaos in the Cowboy locker room.

1988 Detroit Lions

This seems like the natural transition point for this team. This was Darryl Rogers' fourth season as head coach. He was fired toward the end of '88 by Wayne Fontes during a three year stretch of five, four and four wins. Fontes was retained and by '91 the team improved to twelve wins, a trip to the conference championship, and their only playoff victory from 1958 - present.

How they did it Barry Sanders is the simplest answer. Like the Falcons, the Lions moved to a version of the run-n-shoot in '89 which they continued to run throughout Fontes' tenure. After picking up two foundational offensive linemen in the '85 draft they had a terrible '86 and '87 draft, picking up only one (very good) nose tackle between them. '88 was their first foundational draft, with important components Bennie Blades (s), Chris Spielman (mlb), William White (s), and Erik Andolsek (g). Andolsek was killed following the '91 season. 1989 brought Sanders, Mike Utley (t), Ray Crockett(cb), and Rodney Peete(qb). Utley was paralyzed midway through '91 but started the first half of the season at RT. In 1990 they added Dan Owens (dl), Marc Spindler (de), Tracey Hayworth (lb), and Willie Green (wr). They did not add any starters to the 1991 team through the '91 draft. They did pick Herman Moore in the first round but he had a very limited role as a rookie. The team defense was top ten in Rogers' last year and remained near that spot through '91. The big improvement was in the offense which went from last in the NFL to 9th overall.

Did it stick? Yes. The '91 pythagorean for the team was 9 wins, not 12, and they maintained a 9 win pace pretty much throughout the '90s. After the loss of Utley and Andolsek '92 was significantly off but starting in '93 the team made the playoffs five times in seven years, and led the division in victories for the decade.

1992 New England Patriots

The '92 Pats were at the rock bottom, coming off the second year of a disastrous two year stint under Dick MacPherson among rumors that the team was leaving Boston. In the 28 team NFL New England was 27th in offense and turnover differential, 23d in defense. They started four different quarterbacks in 1992, who collectively got punished for 65 sacks. Following the '92 season they replaced MacPherson with Bill Parcells and drafted Drew Bledsoe with the first pick in the draft. In 1994 they won ten games, qualifying for the playoffs as a wild card.

How they did it: It is easy to say Parcells and Bledsoe. This is the second time that Parcells appears in this article, a feat that he would repeat again with the Jets and nearly a fourth time as an executive with Miami in 2008 (they weren't quite bad enough to qualify). This isn't the entire story though. With first round picks they acquired from Dallas in the Maryland deal they picked Eugene Chung and Pat Harlow who teamed with veteran All Pro Bruce Armstrong and '93 2nd rounder Todd Rucci to build one of the strongest offensive lines in the NFL. They also added two starting linebackers in the '92 and '93 draft along with 900+ yard receiver Vincent Brisby in '93. In 1994 they drafted Willie McGinest with their fourth overall selection and he contributed significantly during his rookie season. As with most of these teams, prior drafts had been talent-thin, but the team did pick Ben Coates in the 4th round of the '91 draft. By the 1994 renaissance season he developed into a first team All Pro. Parcells managed to bring the defense up to the middle of the pack, and the offense into the top five, with five players catching over 50 passes, led by Coates' 96/1174/7.

Did it stick? Yes. The team dipped to six wins in '95 before returning to an eleven win season and Super Bowl berth in Parcell's final year in New England. He was replaced by Pete Carroll who guided the team to two more playoff appearances in '96 and '97 before getting sacked following an 8-8 year in '98. He was replaced by Belichick, launching the dynastic Patriots of the early oughts.

1999 New Orleans Saints

In Saints lore 1999 will be remembered as the year that Mike Ditka went crazy and traded his draft for someone even crazier. This was Ditka's third, and last season with New Orleans who totalled 15 victories under Ditka. Ricky Williams had a reasonable but truncated rookie season, rushing for nearly a thousand yards in twelve games. The passing attack was a shambles though, with three starting quarterbacks (including two starts from a young Jake Delhomme!), no real #1 receiver, and a team that finished near the bottom of the league in both scoring offense and scoring defense. Jim Haslett replaced Ditka after the '99 year and the team immediately improved to ten wins and the playoffs.

How they did it: Neither the offense nor defense was quite as bad as they appeared under Ditka, with both units in the middle of the pack for totals. Prior drafts had been thin, but they did pick the core players for a prolific rushing attack, with first rounders invested in Williams, Kyle Turley (t), and Chris Naeole (g) over the prior three drafts. The 2000 draft was still weakened by picks surrendered in the Williams deal, but the Saints did net a lead blocker for Williams with Terrell Smith in the 4th round. More importantly they drafted Darren Howard in the 2nd. He would go on to have a dominating rookie season at defensive end with 11 sacks, a pick and 2 fr in what would be the best season of his productive career. The team signed Jeff Blake away from Cincinnati and little-used Joe Horn away from Kansas City to form a passing threat. They also traded for Aaron Brooks who ended up starting the last five games and in the playoffs. Horn made the Pro Bowl going 94/1340/8 as the Saints only real receiving threat. Williams was limited again, with 1000 yards in 10 games. The offense, and more importantly the defense improved to top ten in all categories, catalyzing the sudden improvement of the team. Haslett installed an attacking defense which blossomed in the system. La-Roi glover made All Pro from a defensive tackle spot with an incredible 17 sacks and 3 ff. Joe Johnson played bookend to Howard, accumulating 12 more sacks for the team. Altogether the team accumulated 66 sacks en route to a home Wild Card victory over the champion Rams and an eventual loss in the divisional round to Minnesota.

Did it stick? Yes. The team didn't improve from 2000 on, but they didn't regress either, until Katrina forced them from the dome.

1996 New York Jets

'96 was the second of Rich Kotite's two year stint as head man for the Jets, and a year in which they went 1-15. Over the prior two years they had won six games in Pete Carroll's only season with the club, and then three in Kotite's first year. This was the eleventh year in a stretch that saw the team peak at eight victories (three times) during the late '80s and early '90s. The team had three quarterbacks get starts in '96, and despite very good production from Adrian Murrell, Wayne Chrebet and rookie Keyshawn Johnson the team finished 27th in scoring offense. Couple with a last place defense the single win fate of the team was sealed. Following the '96 season the team hired reclamation specialist Bill Parcells under whom the team immediately improved to 9-7 in '97. In 1998 the team went 12-4, winning the division and making the playoffs.

How they did it: Unlike other teams the Jets' improvement wasn't heavily linked to successful drafts. From prior years they had a young Aaron Glenn developing into an elite corner by '96. They drafted Kyle Brady in the 1st round in '95 and Keyshawn in '96 to anchor the receiving game. They got almost no help from Parcell's first two drafts. Only '97 7th rounder Jason Ferguson (dt) and '98 4th rounder Jason Fabiani (t) would contribute significantly to the 1998 team. They had to give up picks to hire Parcells from the Patriots, and then traded another 1st and 3d to the Pats for Curtis Martin. After making Neil O'Donnell the regular starter in '97, the Jets went out and acquired Vinnie Testaverde for the '98 season. Behind Martin, Testaverde, Johnson, and Brady the team's offense improved to top five in scoring and totals. Parcells coaxed a very veteran defense to #2 in scoring with All Pro Mo Lewis (lb) making his first Pro Bowl.

Did it stick? Not really. Parcells stuck around for one more 8-8 season. The team remained a bit better than average through Testaverde's last few productive seasons but never again threatened the elite position they reached in '98. This can't be too surprising for the team that - other than Glenn - was relying on defensive starters who were all in their late 20s and early 30s, and few young replacements on the horizon. Even so, Parcells' ability to transform bad teams into playoff contenders instantly is beyond rare.

1999 Philadelphia Eagles

'99 was Andy Reid's first season with the team, following the decline in Ray Rhodes' last years. The team won five games, following six and three win seasons. This was arguably the worst of the three seasons as the team finished in the bottom ten in offense and defense, slipping from 1998 standards. It only took Reid the one year to turn things around, in 2000 the team improved to 11-5 and a playoff win.

How they did it: Despite the poor records, this cupboard was hardly bare. Rookie Donovan McNabb acquired a half season of experience in '99. Recent drafts had acquired Tra Thomas (t), Jeremiah Trotter (lb) and Duce Staley (rb) among others, along with a young Brian Dawkins already on the roster. In 2000 they added Corey Simon who started all sixteen games, registering 9.5 sacks and 2 ff. McNabb has a great first full season, leading the team in rushing with over 600 yards and passing for 3300+ despite no credible wide receivers. Chad Lewis was the main receiving threat, making the Pro Bowl with 69/735 in his first full season after kicking around the league for a few years. After missing most of 1999 Hugh Douglas returned to defensive end and had his best season, making All Pro with 15 sacks, and INT and 2 ff. Altogether the offense improved from 30th to 17th and the defense from 24th to 10th, 6th in scoring.

Did it stick? Yes. The team continued to improve, making the next two NFC championship games. After adding Lito Shepard, Michael Lewis, Sheldon Brown, and Brian Westbrook in one of the all-time great drafts in 2002 they broke through in their fourth consecutive championship game to compete in the Super Bowl following the 2004 season.


1998 St. Louis Rams

1998 was Dick Vermeil's 2nd with the team and they were continuing to get worse. From six wins in Rich Brooks' last year, they had won five and then four under Vermeil. The Rams other measurable were not improving either, remaining firmly in the bottom quarter in offensive and defensive scoring and totals. To cap things, the team also finished 27th in turnover ratio in '98. In one of the more inexplicable reversals, the team went from four wins to thirteen and a Super Bowl victory in 1999.

How they did it: It is hard to imagine that hiring an offensive coordinator has ever had more of an impact from one season to the next. The Rams hired Mike Martz away from Washington, he installed his Kill The Quarterback Offense and the NFL hasn't been the same since. The team had netted Orlando Pace (ot) in '97 and Grant Wistrom (de) and Roland Williams (te) after the barren '96 Lawrence Phillips draft. Couple with young veterans Kevin Carter and Isaac Bruce the team had an outstanding talent core. Bruce had only played 17 games the in '97 and '98 combined and there was some concern for his career so the team drafted Torry Holt in the 1st round, 1999. Bruce came back healthy and made his second Pro Bowl in 1999. The keys to the offense, and to the season, came at running back and quarterback. The teams leading rusher in 1998 was June Henley with a little over 300 yards. Prior to the draft, the Rams packaged a 2nd and 5th round pick to acquire Marshall Faulk from the Colts. Faulk made All Pro his first season in St. Louis, rushing for 5.5 y/c and nearly 1400 yards, along with catching 87/1048 and a combined 12 TDs. In the off-season they also signed Martz's quarterback, Trent Green who was coming off an outstanding 3400 yard season. The story is well known, Green was lost for the year with his knee in pre-season and former grocery bagger Kurt Warner took over, making All-Pro while passing for 4300/41. The defensive improvement was nearly as impressive, although not as startling. Anchored by All Pro Carter and veteran Pro Bowler Todd Lyght (cb) the team recorded 57 sacks and 29 interceptions, while improving from 24th to 4th in scoring, and from 10th to 6th in total.

Did it stick? Yes. Vermeil retired immediately after winning the Super Bowl and Martz took over. Team slipped slightly, losing in the Wild Card game in '00 before returning to the Super Bowl after '01 with their greatest offensive team in the game that launched Tom Brady's career. The team made the playoffs another two times in the next three seasons, as Marc Bulger replaced Warner and Faulk aged.

This completes the profiles of teams that have overcome multiyear futility to return to contention. If you have made it this far you have digested a lot. I'll save my observations and conclusions for a follow-up article when we can try to make sense of this whole thing.

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