The Enemy of My Enemy...

J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS!!!

FWIW, I hear a lot of Baltimore fans talking about how lucky the Steelers are because of how easy a path they have to get to the Superbowl. What a laugher. The Bears are clearly the luckies team ever. They get ridiculously lucky in a handful of games to pull out wins, pick up the 2 seed for a bye, then get Seattle in their first game. Now all they need to do is get by a 6 seed - admittedly a very good one - to make it to the SB, where they may wind up facing another 6 seed.

But as I was saying...
J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS!!!

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Rookie Playoff Quarterbacks And Mark Sanchez' Place

Something happened on Mark Sanchez' way to a pretty disappointing rookie season. The Playoffs.

Yeah, I know, Mark Sanchez was named NFL rookie of the week for 16 straight weeks or something. It was a farce. A facade.

I looked into Sanchez playoff record relative to other rookie quarterbacks a couple of weeks ago - which I will get to momentarily - but decided to wait for Football Outsiders' Almanac before posting about it, since I thought there was a reasonable chance they would have addressed it. They didn't so I will.

I bring this up though, because I am glad I waited. FO published the most comparable rookie quarterbacks to Sanchez. It isn't a flattering list. While some of the players later on the list turned out to be great quarterbacks, including Aikman and Elway (neither of whom had good rookie years) his closest comparables had short and unimpressive careers, topped by Jamarcus Russell.

Make no mistake, Sanchez was awful in the regular season, and his awfulness was a bit masked by the otherwise outstanding team that was assembled around him. The Jets had the fewest passing attempts in the league, and not the fewest by a little but the fewest by a lot. New York attempted 391 passes, the second fewest came from Buffalo with 441. The league median was around 540. So with 150 fewer attempts than over half the league (that's 9 per game, boys and girls) one would think that defenses would be keying the run, that his looks would be good. But even with that huge advantage, Sanchez was one of the worst quarterbacks in the league, and his awfulness very nearly sabotaged the Jets playoff run.

But he did get to the playoffs and somehow this ugly old worm transformed itself into a beautiful butterfly.

Opponent	Cmp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Rate
Cincinnati	12	15	182	1	0	139.4
San Diego	12	23	100	1	1	60.1
Indianapolis	17	30	257	2	1	93.3
Totals	41	69	539	4	2	92.7

That 93 rating would have put him 13th overall for the 2009 season, slightly behind Kurt Warner, Eli Manning and Donovan McNabb. More impressively though, he did it under the bright lights of the playoffs against teams that finished 7th, 17th and 12th in pass defense.

There haven't been many teams recently who made the playoffs with a rookie quarterback but it is still interesting to compare with those that did. In fact this is the whole point of this thing.

Going back to 1983 only 5 teams have made the playoffs with rookie quarterbacks, 4 of them this decade and Dan Marino.

Player	Games	Cmp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Rate
Joe Flacco	3	33	75	437	1	3	50.8
Matt Ryan	1	26	40	199	2	2	72.8
Ben Roethlisberger	2	31	54	407	3	5	61.3
Dan Marino	1	15	25	193	2	2	77.6

So what do we make of this? It's hard to say for sure, except that Sanchez' performance in the playoffs was historically great, certainly the greatest post season in the last 30 years. Add in that regardless of how he got there, he is among excellent company. Anyone watching the AFC Championship could tell that this was no fluke either, with Sanchez poised and confident.

Quarterbacks either get it or they don't. They can either make plays or they can't. While it would be unprecedented for Sanchez to advance from the season he had to a place among the league elite in one year, it does appear that the playoffs were his 'Drew Brees' moment. The lights came on, the game slowed down, he got it.

FO doesn't expect great things from this year's Jet team, and they are probably right. The one thing they appeared to underestimate though is the progression of any rookie quarterback from his first to his second season. They always improve. Often that improvement is incremental and doesn't mean much in the big picture, but with that playoff run in his pocket we should have every expectation that Sanchez will no longer be a liability, and that his performance gain should offset losses elsewhere.

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The trade heard round the world

The Santonio Holmes to NY Jets for a 5th round pick should probably be sending more shockwaves through the NFL than the McNabb deal. There are a lot of interesting aspects and potential ramifications to this trade, a lot of which will probably play out in what could make for some very interesting playoff dynamics.


First and foremost, the Jets now have to be considered a legitimate Superbowl contender, under a couple big caveats. Every year, the NFL is full of "ifs," so this is really nothing new. "If" Peyton Manning gets hurt, do the Colts make the Superbowl? "If" Tom Brady doesn't blow his ACL, do the Pats miss it two years ago? The Jets have two big "ifs" to make them Superbowl contenders. The first is "if" Mark Sanchez builds on what amounted to an impressive, Joe-Flacco-like rookie season.

The second is "if" all these newly acquired trouble-makers on their roster play to their on-field talent, and don't derail the team with their off-field problems. The Jets now look like the Raiders of old (and honestly, of today) in that they're willing to take a risk on any player with a little bit of talent in order to get better. Peter King noticed the same thing in his MMQB article today. This is pretty interesting, because it could give them a shot at a Superbowl, or it could blow up in their faces and have them picking in the top ten next year.

Now we need to turn our attention to the Steelers a bit. The media is billing this as a shot across Roethlisberger's bow; a clear warning sign for him to get his act straight or else he'll wind up shipped out. It's a pretty rampant rumor right now that the Steelers were likely to release Santonio if no one wanted to trade for him.

The trade itself is fairly shocking simply given the fact that they didn't try to get even reasonable compensation for him. A fifth round pick? I'm assuming it's the Jets' original fifth round pick, thus making it a pretty low one. For a guy that was the Superbowl MVP two years ago and had over 1,200 receiving yards last year? With no off-field troubles, the guy has low first / high second round talent.

In other news, Brian Xander is in an office somewhere cursing the Steelers for resetting the market on Brandon Marshall.

But we need to consider for a second that this isn't so much a warning shot at Big Ben as it is a preview of what's to come. Not that it's likely to happen, or that it's anything more than pure speculation on my part, mind you. But we need to consider the possibility that Roethlisberger is the next one on the block, and they may be aggressively shopping him right now.

This, of course, would be unprecedented. A two time Superbowl winning quarterback in his 20s with a career rating over 90 is not someone that any team in the NFL would ever think they might want to trade for any compensation. But let's take stock for a moment. This isn't the first time Ben's had some fairly major issues. And it's not just the initial sexual assault allegations. There was the infamous motorcycle incident four years back as well. As one of my friends noted, it's the third off-season he's created a major distraction / black eye for the organization, but the first time it hasn't happened after a Superbowl win.

And this isn't the Raiders we're talking about here. The Steelers are more in fact the anti-Raiders. They ditch trouble-makers at the first sign of it, and they don't look back. For all the lauding the Patriots get about not falling in love with players, let's remember how quick the Steelers were to dismiss Joey Porter, Plaxico and Randle-El. What's their tolerance level for Big Ben, given both his proclivity for distraction balanced against his impressive on-field talent?

And more interesting, what sort of compensation could they get for him? Last year, Jay Cutler fetched Denver a couple first round picks. Roethlisberger is clearly more talented, but if they're trying to off-load him, can they expect to get much even close to that level? With a potential suspension looming, the balance of an 8 year $102MM contract and a whole host of off-field distractions, how much would a team be willing to give for him?

The situation deserves some pretty intense scrutiny. It's been a really interesting off-season this year, and is only bound to get better.

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The Jets and Tomlinson

A few weeks ago, the New York Jets cut Thomas Jones. Something about wanting to get younger and thinking he would quickly run out of gas. Yes, the contract was the likely big thing...they were set to pay him in the range of $5MM for the year. A 32 yo back on a team with a breaking-out young player probably shouldn't be getting $5MM in a single season ever.

But then, the Jets went and did something very strange. They signed LaDainian Tomlinson. He got $5.1MM for two years. This was done days after Thomas Jones signed with the Chiefs for $5.0MM for two years.

In a vacuum, either move makes sense on its face. The Jets want to get younger and save some money at the position, so cutting Jones loose is fine. The Jets want to add some experience and quality to give Shonn Green a blow, so signing Tomlinson is fine.

But look at the two together, and it just doesn't add up; particularly given Jones' deal in Kansas City. It would be impossible to convince me that the Jets could NOT have re-signed Thomas Jones for money equivalent to what both players are making now. For $5MM, would Jones have really said "No thanks" to a team he played on for three years and went to the Conference Championship game last season in order to go to a team picking in the top five of this coming draft?

And so what did the Jets get with their "trade" of Jones for Tomlinson? Well, Tomlinson is one year younger, sure. But he also has 600 more career rushes than Jones, so technically he's "older" in that sense. Those 600 carries is basically an extra two years of work. And the numbers over the last two years of each player's seasons is strikingly different.

Jones: 621 rushes, 2,714 yds, 4.4/carry, 27 rush TDs, 46 rec, 265 yds, 2 rec TDs (2,979 tot yds, 29 tot TDs) - this on the #20 and #16 offense in the NFL
Tomlinson: 515 rushes, 1,840 yds, 3.6/carry, 23 rush TDs, 72 rec, 580 yds, 1 rec TD (2,420 tot yds, 24 tot TDs) - this on the #10 and #11 offense in the NFL

Tomlinson clearly comes off as a RB out of gas, while Jones looks like he may legitimately have a year or two left before that happens to him. The overall production difference is there, but the yards per carry delta is pretty striking.

One argument I've heard is that Tomlinson is a better pass catcher, and should be better on third downs. That's not hard to deduce, but when you look a bit closer, in particular at the advanced stats from Football Outsiders, you'll note there's actually not much difference in their pass catching abilities. Both players have a significantly negative DVOA, and Tomlinson was actually rated last of all running backs with 25+ receptions in '09. While Tomlinson has a better catch rate than Jones, the delta there can almost be explained away by the delta in each team's completion rate. And even if you take the stats at face value with no advanced analysis, the increase in Tomlinson's receiving productivity simply doesn't come close to off-setting the decrease in rushing productivity.

Some other arguments some friends and I came up with, in no particular order:
- It's done to sell seats and merchandise, particularly with a new stadium. Okay, I could see this, but I also think Tomlinson's star power has worn off significantly over the last few years. Admittedly, they'll probably sell more Tomlinson jerseys this year than they would have Jones jerseys. But ticket selling? No, I find it tough to believe they won't sell out that stadium with either guy.
- Jones is a locker room cancer, Tomlinson a leader. Maybe. Last year, Jones took some heat for criticizing Favre. But is this enough to warrant such a move down in production? Maybe he shouldn't have said anything. But it's not like we're dealing with TO here. And it's not like he wasn't right that Favre folded like a cheap suit at the end of the '08 season.
- The Jets have the better OL and Tomlinson will produce better with it. Could be. But 0.8 YPC better for a RB after age 30?

Bottom line, the move just doesn't make much sense to me, so I figured it was worth calling out.

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Patrick/Chris chat the Jets game

Patrick and I chatted through the Colts/Jets game. I stripped out the non-football stuff and left the rest. Tried to edit out any bad language but my apologies if I missed any.
____________________________________

Patrick D (3:13:05 PM): great pass by Sanchez
Chris B (3:13:34 PM): Yeah, awesome play not fumbling.
Patrick D (3:16:14 PM): when did Shone Green become a superstar?
Chris B (3:16:42 PM): About four weeks ago, I know.
Chris B (3:17:49 PM): He sorta came out of nowhere.

[Feeley blows his first field goal attempt]

Patrick D (3:18:10 PM): oh, what an eff-up
Chris B (3:18:12 PM): WTF was that hook?
Patrick D (3:18:18 PM): that was huge
Chris B (3:18:24 PM): It's like a giant fan just caught it.
Patrick D (3:18:36 PM): it's like Nate Kaeding was kicking it
Chris B (3:18:59 PM): Yeah

[Jets keep blowing up Manning]

Patrick D (3:20:58 PM): geezus. does Indy have an offensive line?
Chris B (3:21:37 PM): I don't understand how they get to him and no one else can.
Patrick D (3:37:30 PM): I don't get those deep handoffs that the Colts run. I know they are looking for the receivers to drive the dbs back but against a team that is as blitz-happy as the Jets that is just a bad formula

Chris B (3:43:21 PM): I'm not sure the Jets can score on this team.

[Edwards 80 yard touchdown on the next play]

Patrick D (3:44:55 PM): I am
Chris B (3:45:00 PM): Well, nevermind.
Chris B (3:45:24 PM): Soon as that ball was in the air I said to myself "Well, if he catches it it's 6, but that's a big 'if'."
Patrick D (3:45:52 PM): Guess having a quarterback that completely sucked was Edwards' entire problem the last couple of years. It isn't like Sanchez is really all that good yet and Edwards is a new man
Chris B (3:46:12 PM): I dunno. He still drops a lot of balls.

Patrick D (4:03:49 PM): at this point can we give the Jets an A+ for their draft?
Chris B (4:04:03 PM): Yeah I'd say so.

[Brad Smith option pass to Clowney]

Patrick D (4:06:56 PM): interesting. do you run a bad play all season long so that you can turn it into a trick play in the AFC championship? or do you take a play that you've kept trying to run one way (that's never worked) and give it a twist for the AFC championship?

[Sanchez runs around and then throws a floater out of bounds]

Patrick D (4:07:56 PM): how is that not grounding?
Chris B (4:08:10 PM): Out of pocket I think.
Patrick D (4:08:13 PM): guess he did get outside
Chris B (4:08:20 PM): I didn't think that was gonna make the sideline.
Chris B (4:08:27 PM): Thought INT
Patrick D (4:08:43 PM): my immediate recollection was that he had run straight backward
Chris B (4:09:14 PM): Trying to figure out why they're not even trying to run the ball.

[Sanchez throws TD while getting buried]

Chris B (4:11:15 PM): wow
Patrick D (4:11:16 PM): Sanchez
Chris B (4:11:36 PM): Sanchize
Chris B (4:11:37 PM): lol
Chris B (4:11:52 PM): How the eff is this team doing this???
Patrick D (4:12:08 PM): Sanchez
Patrick D (4:12:20 PM): he went from below average to great today
Chris B (4:12:45 PM): Yeah, and the D is holding in the red zone remarkably well.
Patrick D (4:13:03 PM): no one doubted they'd have a great defense
Chris B (4:13:16 PM): I still can't believe and think the NFC team would crush the Jets...either one.
Patrick D (4:13:59 PM): no. no way. I think both teams can handle them though. they are both built perfectly to beat them
Patrick D (4:14:33 PM): Saints have the great defensive backs and the offense. Minnesota the great run defense and pass rush/favre/running game
Patrick D (4:15:49 PM): I mis-read what you wrote. I agree that the NFC team should have a pretty big edge
Chris B (4:16:19 PM): Jesus... WTF is going on here? I mean, I love it, I want this, but I didn't expect it at all.
Chris B (4:16:36 PM): How the hell are they getting this much penetration?
Patrick D (4:16:56 PM): it's the deep delayed draw again. I do not understand that call against the Jets. It makes no sense.
Chris B (4:22:48 PM): Wonder if the Colts regret sitting their starters yet.

[Indianapolis turns up the pressure and scores a couple of times]

Patrick D (4:27:47 PM): knew this was going to happen
Chris B (4:27:54 PM): Boy, they made that look easy.
Patrick D (4:28:27 PM): two huge plays on offense by the Jets but they need to be able to grind it out or they won't be able to hold off Indianapolis
Chris B (4:28:51 PM): Yeah
Patrick D (4:53:04 PM): Kaeding disease
Chris B (4:53:09 PM): lol
Chris B (4:53:15 PM): Though at least Feely made one.

[Manning throws the ball at Collie's back]

Patrick D (4:57:48 PM): I love how those guys just turn and the ball is in their hands. how do you defend that?
Chris B (4:58:39 PM): Not possible. I really can't wait till Manning retires. It's almost unfair.
Chris B (4:58:57 PM): At least you can defend against Brady.
Patrick D (4:59:21 PM): and Flacco.
But not Clayton.
Chris B (4:59:46 PM): Clayton = 2nd greatest player of all time.
Chris B (4:59:54 PM): Behind only Gaither.
Patrick D (5:00:18 PM): I'm sad that we didn't get Boller to Clayton for 10 years.
At least Gaither is actually pretty good
Chris B (5:00:46 PM): Yeah, true. Hopefully they let Clayton walk after this season.
Patrick D (5:01:11 PM): You can make the argument for giving Gaither a big contract. You can make the argument that he has a chance to be one of the best.
You can do no such thing with Clayton.
... and yet ...
[Colts score, up 10]
Chris B (5:05:03 PM): Yeah, gross. Jets prolly won't catch up, esp with Greene on the side.
I doubt Gaither gets a big deal. Like, $10MM big, I mean. It's possible he winds up being really good, but there's so much risk that he never gets better. I think you can't pay a guy to be J Gross/J Peters unless he shows that's clearly who he's gonna be.
Patrick D (5:06:29 PM): oh I don't disagree with your argument. I'm just saying that in the world of overhyped fanbois tripe Gaither is something of a superstar because he actually has played well and actually does have some potential to improve
Chris B (5:07:10 PM): Yeah, I definitely agree with that.
Patrick D (5:07:58 PM): thing is, if I'm the Ravens and if this winter is uncapped then I go ahead an sign Gaither to a "franchise" deal and just shove most of the money into the first year
Chris B (5:08:53 PM): Yeah although they have rules for salary escalators. I wonder how a guy would respond to a $20MM first year salary and no bonus...
Patrick D (5:10:28 PM): I don't think that'[s a good idea but you can give him a deal that gives him what you think he's worth (to give him incentive) and then a first year roster bonus. say $6M/yr for 7 years and a $18M roster bonus. that is very affordable
Chris B (5:11:04 PM): Yeah but in theory if the cap comes back it'll still hit the cap in the later years, right?
Patrick D (5:11:11 PM): not roster bonuses
Chris B (5:11:36 PM): I thought they do too.
Patrick D (5:11:48 PM): only signing bonuses are prorated
Chris B (5:11:54 PM): Thought they're spread among the years.
Patrick D (5:14:19 PM): not as far as I can tell. Only signing bonuses are prorated.
here's one article:
http://www.cleveland.com/browns/index.ssf/2009/03/bonus_contracts_handcuff_brown.html
Chris B (5:16:04 PM): Yeah I'm just seeing some similar things myself.
Chris B (5:16:24 PM): Interesting, I didn't know that. Yeah, if that's the case, then definitely roster not signing bonus.
Patrick D (5:18:14 PM): Reporting bonuses are treated as signing bonuses if the contract is signed after the start of training camp. Roster bonuses are also considered signing bonuses if the contract was signed after the last preseason game. Finally, individually negotiated relocation bonuses are treated as a signing bonus.
http://www.askthecommish.com/salarycap/faq.asp
Chris B (5:18:29 PM): Yeah I just saw that one too.
Patrick D (5:18:43 PM): that's the smoking gun (assuming it's correct)
Chris B (5:19:02 PM): It's the internet so it has to be correct.
Patrick D (5:19:02 PM): could (should) see a lot of that this winter. in the best interests of both the teams and the players
Chris B (5:19:27 PM): Yeah, I bet some teams will be stupid and not do it, but many will.
Patrick D (5:19:50 PM): basically every team can clear all the proration off of their books this winter if they want
Chris B (5:20:01 PM): Yep, and they should.
Chris B (5:20:09 PM): Well, maybe not "should..."
Chris B (5:20:15 PM): There's real money considerations.
Patrick D (5:20:43 PM): for a few teams. Buffalo.
Patrick D (5:20:53 PM): Jacksonville

[Balls start bouncing off Colt receivers]

Chris B (5:31:54 PM): Two almost mistakes...gotta take those balls away to beat this team I think.

[Collie catches a ball at the marker and retreats]

Patrick D (5:32:25 PM): thought Collie gave up the first down there
Patrick D (5:32:58 PM): ran like 2 yards back toward the line of scrimmage turning around
Chris B (5:33:36 PM): Yeah, thought the same thing with the Jets db looking like he was right there to make the tackle.
Chris B (5:34:02 PM): Jets just aren't good enough to hang with this team long term.
Patrick D (5:34:19 PM): nope. and their bag of tricks is empty
Chris B (5:34:31 PM): Yep
Chris B (5:35:01 PM): The D is good, but not good enough to keep that O from scoring 20-30 points, and their O isn't good enough I think.
Chris B (5:35:42 PM): Gonna take a miracle drive from a rookie, and it's gonna have to be a game ender cause if you give Manning even 50 seconds to get in FG range it's over.

[Sanchez throws his first pick]

Chris B (5:35:48 PM): Or nm it's over now...
Patrick D (5:35:58 PM): What's Eli doing there? Isn't he playing later?
Chris B (5:36:05 PM): lol
Patrick D (5:36:24 PM): He looked kind of pissed off that Indy scored
Chris B (5:36:43 PM): Tired of big bro overshadowing him.
Chris B (5:37:19 PM): Three good games and a miracle catch will define Eli's career. I thought that $98MM contract or whatever was a big mistake at the time.
Patrick D (5:37:23 PM): Daaaaaaaad. Why do we always have to have our family reunions at the AFC Championship game?
Patrick D (5:37:31 PM): no joke
Chris B (5:38:07 PM): lol
Patrick D (5:38:26 PM): Wonder how Cooper feels?
Patrick D (5:38:50 PM): His no-talent entitled little brother got a $100M contract.
Chris B (5:38:54 PM): He has health issues so it's not his fault at least.
Chris B (5:39:41 PM): But yeah, that's gotta be pretty humbling.
"Well, I'm worth nine figures less than both my brothers. Awesome."
Patrick D (5:40:56 PM): That's actually a pretty funny idea.
Peyton: so where's the family reunion this year.
Archie: How about the AFC Championship, eh son? Eh? (nudges Peyton with his elbow)
Eli: Dad, how about we do it at the NFC Championship this year?
Archie: LOL!
Chris B (5:41:28 PM): HA!
Chris B (5:42:25 PM): Cooper: Guys, how 'bout we have it at my house?
Peyton/Archie/Eli: HAhahahahahahaha!
Peyton: Dude, our cars don't even fit in your driveway!
Patrick D (5:43:55 PM): or:
Cooper: How about at my house?
Archie: Who the hell are you? Get away from my two sons, creep!
Chris B (5:44:11 PM): heh
Chris B (5:44:40 PM): Jets are gonna blitz 8 every play.
Chris B (5:45:13 PM): There's only one Revis in that db-field. I think Manning will score again.
Chris B (5:45:35 PM): Unless his receivers drop all his passes.
Patrick D (5:47:19 PM): The Jets are three Revises short today.
Chris B (5:47:22 PM): I like his vampire teeth mouth-guard.
Chris B (5:48:11 PM): The Indianapolis Mannings win this game by 17 or more points.
Patrick D (5:48:26 PM): I'll take the under
Chris B (5:49:24 PM): Obviously, but just thinking they're getting into the end zone again.
Chris B (5:49:47 PM): Here comes the nickle db
Chris B (5:50:08 PM): God Garcon is ridiculous. Anthony Gonzwho?
Patrick D (5:51:04 PM): thing is, he's just the guy who's open today.
Chris B (5:52:08 PM): Yeah, though he's looked great all year. I really wonder what they're gonna do with Gonzo this off-season.
Patrick D (5:52:44 PM): Gonzalez still under contract, isn't he?
Chris B (5:52:55 PM): I think so, but he's prolly got some trade value.
Patrick D (5:53:24 PM): oh they won't trade him. When do the Colts ever make trades?
Chris B (5:53:41 PM): I dunno. I was wondering if they'd move him for a 2nd or 3rd rounder.

[Colts drive inside the 10]

Chris B (5:54:41 PM): Why not go for it here on 4th and 1?
Chris B (5:54:49 PM): 3 points is almost worthless, 7 ends it.
Patrick D (5:55:36 PM): plus the benefit of field position if they don't get it
Chris B (5:55:46 PM): Yeah
Chris B (5:55:56 PM): I don't agree with kicking. This makes no sense to me.
Chris B (5:56:16 PM): If it's at the 25 or 30 I could understand, but trapping them this deep if they miss? Not worth it.
Chris B (5:57:15 PM): Prolly doesn't matter. That was almost a 5 minute drive.

[Colts field goal, Stover kicks one of those three-foot high line drive kickoffs]

Patrick D (5:57:53 PM): I don't know why teams don't just kick off like that every time
Patrick D (5:58:21 PM): that low line drive three bounce to the endzone thing. it never gets returned past the 30
Chris B (5:58:46 PM): I guess cause you're conceding the 30 yard line, but if you have a K that can't get it 5 deep into the end zone every time then yeah, seems to make sense.
Chris B (5:59:11 PM): How many TOs do the Jets have?
Patrick D (5:59:39 PM): not enough

[Chris' timing remains impeccable. The Jets instantly turn the ball over]

Chris B (5:59:49 PM): Game set match
Chris B (6:00:48 PM): The only good thing about the Jets losing is not have to listen to Ravens fans whine about how Rex took Sanchez and the Jets farther than Harbs took Flacco and the Ravens his first season.
Patrick D (6:00:51 PM): I put $10,000,000 on the under, btw
Chris B (6:01:18 PM): Talk to Eli. He's got that kinda cash sitting in his couch and deserves it less than me.
Patrick D (6:02:44 PM): I hate those complaints. Who TF cares. Two different teams/situations/everything.
Chris B (6:03:44 PM): Yeah, agree. We're just hearing a lot of second-guessing from Ravens fans though. "Why didn't we hire Rex?" "Is Sanchez better than Flacco?" "We should start Troy Smith!"
Patrick D (6:05:04 PM): It's the same thing with all the Stafford-backers getting all defensive and feeling they have something to prove WRT Sanchez. They drag down Sanchez constantly as if that somehow proves something about the quality of Stafford. The cognitive dissonance is staggering.
Chris B (6:05:53 PM): Well Sanchez is playing in the Conf Championship game and Stafford only won two games, so obviously Sanchez is WAAAAAY better LDO!!!
Patrick D (6:07:09 PM): It isn't even that I disagree with the arguments, it's more that the reasons that they are important to these people baffle me. How Sanchez did this year has no bearing on Stafford. How Sanchez does in his career also has no bearing on Stafford.
Chris B (6:08:21 PM): Could depend on the argument... "Value for the money" sorta thing...
Patrick D (6:08:49 PM): Lions were going to pay #1 money no matter what

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The Pretenders Of '10

I just can't shake the conviction that the New York Jets really don't belong here. In the playoffs? Sure. Someone had to be the worst team in the playoffs but in the AFC Championship? No. No way.

But here they are, as much because of two awful games by their opponents as because of their own performance. Or was it?

One of the broadcasters* during the game said something to the effect of 'that's what the Jets do. They are patient and wait and wait and wait until eventually their opponents make a mistake'. I guess that is true to some extent.

This team is Ravens-lite. They are capable of grinding down inferior teams and capitalizing on mistakes. They imposed one of the more efficient beatdowns of an opponent last week against Cincinnati in a game that completely exposed the Bengals. Yesterday they appeared to get outplayed but when the dust settled .. they won.

Following the game Bart Scott said

"It was ugly, but that's how we play," Jets linebacker Bart Scott said of the aesthetic quality of the win that put New York in the AFC title game for the first time since the Bill Parcells era in 1999. "This isn't the Golden State Warriors (or) the Phoenix Suns. This is the old-school Pistons. It's going to be ugly. It's not entertaining. I know the league and a lot of guys would prefer to see [the Chargers] so they can build it up, but we got them old grimy Jets here, so tune in if you want to."

But still, it's hard to get excited about this team. Nate Kaeding missed three field goals, which is three more than he normally would. The passing attack was anemic and the running game was only productive through repetition, not efficiency. It is hard to imagine the Jets beating on Peyton Manning the way they did Rivers and that was really the key to the entire game. The Colts won't be able to run on New York but they probably don't even care. They couldn't run on the Ravens either. The Jets may have the defense to slow down the Colts. They have what the Ravens lack with a terrific secondary. But even so, it seems remote that Indianapolis will be forced into the types of errors that doomed San Diego.



*I can never keep those guys straight since Madden left. To me they are disembodied voices that pretty much repeat themselves throughout the year.

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The Art of the QB Non-Competition

To nobody's real surprise, Mark Sanchez has been named the starting QB for the Jets. Somewhat by surprise, it wasn't because he had a great game Monday against the Ravens. Instead, he seems to win it based on the fact the Jets have a new, brash head coach that both saw a rookie first round pick succeed last season as well as realize he has no one attractive enough to start in front of Sanchez.

Therein lies the fun of the Jets "quarterback competition" we had seen early in the pre-season. It was never really a competition. One would say the only way it was is if Sanchez played so poorly in his first start that he worked his way out of a job. The problem is, one might think he'd have done that by throwing a pick six his first pass as a starter and nearly throwing two others prior to notching a TD pass against what amounted to mostly Ravens backups.

And so we're left to wonder if there was really any QB competition to begin with. Is it possible for him to have played his way out of the job? Would Clemens have played well enough to win the job if he'd have done more than what little he did in his two games?

One has to assume not, which begs the question, "Why even announce it as a QB competition?" I see two main arguments here, one on either side of this question.

Arguing for competition, one would think making it a competition would push Sanchez to raise his game. Make it a ruse, make him earn it, and if he plays up to the task he'll get it. Closely connected to this, if he blows up completely, Rex always has the option to keep him on the bench for a while and not look like a fool.

However, on the flip-side of this argument, coming out and giving him the job allows him more time to work with the starting team, and working against starting defenses. This could be particularly important for a rookie QB. So in my personal opinion, if there's basically nothing he could have done to lose the QB "competition" that was set early in camp, Rex probably should have simply given him the job.

That's the beauty of being an armchair quarterback (so to speak) I guess.

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