Sunday, January 31, 2010

Herschel Walker kicks butt

One of the greatest athletes pro football has ever seen, shows he's still got it at 47.

Walker a winner in mixed martial arts debut
Walker’s endurance was sensational, but he looked stiff in his standup game and didn’t have a good concept of what he was doing on the ground. According to CompuStrike, Walker landed 77 of 106 strikes overall, an amazing 73 percent. He connected on 69 of 91 on the ground. Nagy landed just seven punches.
“This was the hardest thing I’ve ever done,” Walker said.

Gregg Doyel points out that Walker's robotic victory over nobody won't make Walker somebody in MMA, but that sort of misses the point. Walker doesn't need a new professional career. Meeting a challenge is accomplishment enough.
Herschel says his MMA debut was a mixed bag
Walker was unclear on his future. It's unlikely that he'll take another fight. There really is no need to. Just like his football career and appearance in the Olympics, Walker proved his point. He's stil one of the world's great athletes even at 47.

Ageless Walker does sport, self proud
Walker’s conditioning was superb and he was barely breathing hard when he got off Nagy after referee Troy Waugh had seen enough and stopped the bout. Contrast that with the performance of about half the cast of Season 10 of “The Ultimate Fighter,” heavyweights who seemed to gas literally 30 or 45 seconds into the fight.
...
Walker has long been a martial artist – he has a sixth-degree black belt in taekwondo – and decided to try to fight in MMA as a way to challenge himself. He treated the sport, his opponent, the media and the fans with the utmost respect. He prepared at the American Kickboxing Academy in San Jose, Calif., one of the elite camps in the country, and worked as hard or harder than any of the camp’s many MMA stars he worked alongside.
...
His trainer, Javier Mendez, was comparing Walker’s conditioning to the UFC’s Cain Velasquez, who might be the most well-conditioned big man in the sport. Velasquez could probably fight five 10-minute rounds if he needed to, and Mendez put Walker in the same league.
“He said, ‘This guy can go as much as Cain in the gym,’ ” Coker said. “He said, ‘His gas tank is as big as Cain’s.’ This was his journey to test himself and he did it.”
Walker picked apart his game, noting more of the mistakes he made than the good things he did. But he was clearly proud.
As NFL fans, we associate Walker with The Trade, and maybe not quite fulfilling the ridiculous expectations of him coming out of college -- he had a great career, yet perhaps still a disappointing one. But maybe we miss the forest of his talent for the trees of how he was used. 6th-degreee black belt in tae kwin do, nearly made the Olympic sprint relay team, '92 Olympic bobsled team. Now this.

Crazy.

Herschel Walker donates entire fight purse to Dallas charity


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Tuesday, January 26, 2010

5 Year Record

It's that time of year again, the lull before the Super Bowl. A good time to take a look at who have been the very best teams in the sport over the recent past.

In the table below, ties are broken by postseason wins, where applicable, under the theory that one postseason win is worth more than one reg season win. It's a slightly greater accomplishment. Thus the Saints are ranked ahead of the Jaguars and the Packers ahead of the Titans. Ties remaining after that are broken by the most recent reg season record, under the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately theory. Thus the Vikings are ahead of the Broncos, the Brownies ahead of the Chiefs, and the Raiders ahead of the Rams. Ties remaining after that are ignored, because Excel will only sort on three categories at once; but I don't think there are any examples this year.

TeamReg season
Post season
Grand Total
20052006200720082009 Sum
20052006200720082009 Sum
Indianapolis Colts141213121465

4

26
71
New England Patriots101216111059
122

5
64
San Diego Chargers9141181355


21
3
58
Pittsburgh Steelers1181012950
4

3
7
57
New York Giants1181012849


4

4
53
Dallas Cowboys991391151




11
52
Chicago Bears111379747

2


2
49
Carolina Panthers118712846
2



2
48
Philadelphia Eagles61089.51144.5

1
2
3
47.5
Baltimore Ravens613511944



213
47
Minnesota Vikings968101245




11
46
Denver Broncos13978845
1



1
46
Seattle Seahawks139104541
211

4
45
New Orleans Saints310781341

1

23
44
Jacksonville Jaguars128115743


1

1
44
Green Bay Packers481361142


1

1
43
Tennessee Titans481013843





0
43
Arizona Cardinals55891037



314
41
Cincinnati Bengals11874.51040.5





0
40.5
Atlanta Falcons87411939





0
39
New York Jets41049936




22
38
Washington Redskins10598436
1



1
37
Tampa Bay Buccnrs11499336





0
36
Miami Dolphins96111734





0
34
Houston Texans2688933





0
33
Buffalo Bills5777632





0
32
San Francisco 49ers4757831





0
31
Cleveland Browns64104529





0
29
Kansas City Chiefs10942429





0
29
Oakland Raiders4245520





0
20
St. Louis Rams6832120





0
20
Detroit Lions5370217





0
17

My rule of thumb is, any team with a grand total of 45 or over is doing something right. That's an average winning record, nine wins per year, in a league where winning at all (let alone winning consistently) is extremely difficult. These are the best organizations in the sport.

Note technically a total of 40.5 or better represents a “winning” record, barely. That would average out to 4 yrs of 8-8 and one year of 8-7-1. I personally think that is nothing to write home about: but the Bengals have a pretty crappy history, so the current regime's results are sort of spectacular. Anyway, it beats losing. These teams in the 40-44 win category are in a second tier.

Indy and New England have been on top of this list for a few years now. I guess that's what happens when you get the two best QBs in the game, along with decent to good defenses. Indy has been in 2nd place, though: last year they were 3 games back. This 7-game lead is rather stunning. You wouldn't think anyone could be 7 games better than New England over this period. The Imperfect Season is still very recent. It's worth noting that the Pats last Super Bowl just came off the books for this table: it was six seasons ago. The Steelers have won it twice since then, and Indy has a chance to make it two also.

The Chargers, Steelers & Giants round out the top 5, with Dallas just a game behind. This accords with our intution: those teams are good just about every year. Would you have picked the Bears and Panthers as the next most successful teams? Remember the Bears went to the Super Bowl after the 2006 season. The Panthers went just a couple years before, and John Fox's teams have consistently been dangerous. Our perception of him would be completely different if Carolina had been able to hold on in SB 38 (it was just a 3-pt game).

Looking at the other end of the list – how crushing is it to be a Lions fan? The Raiders and Rams have averaged 4 wins a season over the last 5 years, they've been just awful. (You have to love the Rams record in the last 3 successive seasons: 3,2,1. Blastoff!) And the Lions are 3 games worse. Here's a lesson in how horribly a zero brings own your average: the Lions could double their win total next year, to 4 games, and go down in total victories on this list, because their 5-win campaign in 2005 would come off the books.

I still think things are going to look up for those fans. I also think it will happen S-L-O-W-L-Y. Mayhew & co. seem to be the Tortoise rather than the Hare. But here's the thing – two things, actually. 1, Lions owner William Clay Ford is the one owner Most Likely To give an extended chance to his management team.
(Remember the days when Tom Landry posted 5 consecutive losing seasons to start his coaching career with the Cowboys? And in the 6th season the record was only .500? WCF is the one NFL owner you can picture being patient enough to let that play out, give his guys extra time to turn it around.)
2, football is one sport (baseball is another) where the slow methodical approach is the only one that must work. In the NBA, you cannot win unless you get lucky as a franchise; you need a star to fall into your lap (Larry Brown's Pistons excepted). But in football, the attrition is so terrible, that if you just add good players while letting your bad players fall away, you will inevitably become good after a few years. Slowly, but inevitably. Mind you, that's not the only way to get good. You can be Parcells or Marty, raze the existing roster and bring in a bunch of young guys who will run around and block and tackle and play their hearts out. Take all your roster hits in year 1. You can be Brad Childress or Sean Payton, and import half your team. Hope it all comes together. But each of those approaches can fail. The slow & methodical addition of talent, if done well, must work. You do have to stick with it, though.
(It also helps that the Lions seem to have identified their QB. Now they can acquire pieces who will actually help them in the near term, rather than in some remote future.)

Check out Houston's place on the list, 33 wins. That's solidly in loser territory. But! If next year they post another season like they did this year, then they will vault into the respectable middle. Their 2-win 2005 season would come off the books, and a decent season added in. (How much do you think the good people of Houston, Jacksonville and Tennessee, the divisional opponents of Indianapolis, just cannot wait for Peyton Manning to friggin retire already!)

Who do you feel sorrier for? The Brownies, in a division with the Steelers (57), Ravens (47), and Bengals (40.5)? Or the Redskins, in a division with the Giants (53), Cowboys (52), and Eagles (44.5)?

It's a trick question, of course. You never ever feel sorry for Dan Snyder's sorry-ass team.

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Sunday, January 24, 2010

Patrick/Chris chat the Jets game

Patrick and I chatted through the Colts/Jets game. I stripped out the non-football stuff and left the rest. Tried to edit out any bad language but my apologies if I missed any.
____________________________________

Patrick D (3:13:05 PM): great pass by Sanchez
Chris B (3:13:34 PM): Yeah, awesome play not fumbling.
Patrick D (3:16:14 PM): when did Shone Green become a superstar?
Chris B (3:16:42 PM): About four weeks ago, I know.
Chris B (3:17:49 PM): He sorta came out of nowhere.

[Feeley blows his first field goal attempt]

Patrick D (3:18:10 PM): oh, what an eff-up
Chris B (3:18:12 PM): WTF was that hook?
Patrick D (3:18:18 PM): that was huge
Chris B (3:18:24 PM): It's like a giant fan just caught it.
Patrick D (3:18:36 PM): it's like Nate Kaeding was kicking it
Chris B (3:18:59 PM): Yeah

[Jets keep blowing up Manning]

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Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Final Eight Free Agency

One of the most underreported stories heading int0 the NFL offseason this winter is the NFL plan for the final eight teams (all teams that played last weekend) and free agency heading into the uncapped year. I first heard about this last week and found it startling. Now that the NFL has released details I am even more startled. It imposes much more draconian limitations on those teams in the free agent market than I initially expected.

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Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Real Sports on Concussions

FYI - HBO's Real Sports with Bryant Gumble is running I believe their full hour on our favorite topic, concussions, this week.

Scrape Scrape

Okay, someone is going to have to explain this to me.

Chan Gailey? Really?

I understand that Buffalo isn't exactly the sexiest landing spot for a potential head coach. It sits up there somewhere north of Canada and after all of its industry fled about 20 years ago its raison d'être is as a support system for honeymoon suites overlooking Niagara Falls.

But still. Chan Gailey?

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Monday, January 18, 2010

The Pretenders Of '10

I just can't shake the conviction that the New York Jets really don't belong here. In the playoffs? Sure. Someone had to be the worst team in the playoffs but in the AFC Championship? No. No way.

But here they are, as much because of two awful games by their opponents as because of their own performance. Or was it?

"It was ugly, but that's how we play," Jets linebacker Bart Scott said of the aesthetic quality of the win that put New York in the AFC title game for the first time since the Bill Parcells era in 1999. "This isn't the Golden State Warriors (or) the Phoenix Suns. This is the old-school Pistons. It's going to be ugly. It's not entertaining. I know the league and a lot of guys would prefer to see [the Chargers] so they can build it up, but we got them old grimy Jets here, so tune in if you want to."

But still, it's hard to get excited about this team. Nate Kaeding missed three field goals, which is three more than he normally would. The passing attack was anemic and the running game was only productive through repetition, not efficiency. It is hard to imagine the Jets beating on Peyton Manning the way they did Rivers and that was really the key to the entire game. The Colts won't be able to run on New York but they probably don't even care. They couldn't run on the Ravens either. The Jets may have the defense to slow down the Colts. They have what the Ravens lack with a terrific secondary. But even so, it seems remote that Indianapolis will be forced into the types of errors that doomed San Diego.



*I can never keep those guys straight since Madden left. To me they are disembodied voices that pretty much repeat themselves throughout the year.

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Saturday, January 16, 2010

Playoff predictions - Divisional Weekend

Predictions for the divisional round.

Cardinals @ Saints
I'm pretty tired of all the ridiculous renaming of the city, like Drew Orleans. But there's good reason for it. This game will break several offensive records, but the most impressive of which will be that it will be the only game in NFL history with zero total rushing attempts. The Saints get the ball last and pull out a close 77-70 victory.

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Monday, January 11, 2010

The Packer/Cardinal Bowl

Just how absurd was the 51-45 score that lit up the board in Arizona yesterday?

By now, you've surely heard that it set the all-time NFL record for most points in a playoff game.

However, it also outscored every Pro Bowl in history, except for the 2004 Pro Bowl.

Yes, the Pro Bowl. Noted for a total lack of defense and running up the score in order to attempt to get some fan interest in it, not even the majority of Pro Bowls could keep up with the highlights we saw in yesterday's closing game.

What Rooney Rule?

Which flaunting of the Rooney Rule is more egregious: the Redskins with Shanahan's hiring, or the Seahawks with Carroll's hiring?

  • Indianapolis hired Dungy, and got 5 division titles and a Super Bowl win out of it.
  • Pittsburgh hired Shaft, and have got two division titles and a Super Bowl win out of it so far.
  • Da Bears hired Lovie Smith, and got 2 division titles and a conference championship out of it.
  • Indy promoted Jim Caldwell, and already have a division title and #1 playoff seed to show for it.
  • The Bengals hired Coach Marvin, and got 2 division titles and an over .500 record out of it. The Bengals!
  • The 49ers hired Singletary and are over .500 with him as coach (barely, at 13-12).
Tampa's Raheem Morris will demonstrate over the next couple seasons that the under-prepared over-promoted black coach will not ultimately do much better than the under-prepared over-promoted white coach, aka "Jim Zorn". But that won't diminish the fact that black coaches have been pretty damn good.

The other factor is that we now have black general managers in the league. The bosses of head coaches. That wasn't true 10+ years ago. Ozzie Newsome, Jerry Reese, and Martin Mayhew are well regarded. Two of those guys have won Super Bowls for their team; the third will get a ticker tape parade if he can produce a winning record in the next 3-4 years. As it happens, all three of their teams have white head coaches, but that seems to be because he was the best guy available at the time (Reese inherited Coughlin), not due to any unconscious bias or lack of awareness of qualified black head coaching candidates. Can a black GM even have an unconscious bias or lack of awareness of qualified black head coaching candidates?

The pool of white coaches has been thoroughly picked over by teams over the decades. (Sort of like the Patriots staff & front office.) Those organizations that are smart enough to see the value of a Mike Tomlin or a Leslie Frazier, and snap him up, are going to do pretty well for themselves. Those that aren't will continue to ride the treadmill of recycled hacks and sub-.500 seasons.


________________________________

Related reading:

Tackling Unconscious Bias In Hiring Practices: The Plight Of The Rooney Rule (PDF) by Brian W. Collins, NYU School of Law.

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Sunday, January 10, 2010

Return of the adequate offense

Back in August I predicted Joe Flacco would throw for 3200-3400 yards with 22-24 TDs and 13-14 INTs. That prediction looks pretty good when compared with Flacco's actual numbers. Unfortunately I made a bet with Chris, that Flacco would have 22 TD passes, so it's not quite good enough. You can imagine my gnashing of teeth as the Raiders tackled Leron McClain at the half-yard line last week; or the week before as Mason let that pass in the end zone bounce off his face mask (and then laughed about it on the sideline!).

In the body of that post I suggested that either my yards prediction was conservative or my TD prediction optimistic. So really my prediction was right on:

FlaccoyardsTDsINTs
Predicted32-340022-2413-14
Actual36132112

Also in that post I took a look at what it would take for the Ravens to have an offense produce at that level:

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Saturday, January 9, 2010

Playoff predictions - Wildcard Weekend

My predictions for how the playoffs will go this week.

Jets @ Bengals - Ochocinco held without a catch through first three quarters with Jets maintaining a 14 point lead. He goes into the stands, finds a cute woman, has sex with her, comes back to the field and catches 8 passes for 180 yards and 3 TDs to lead a fourth quarter comeback win.

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Thursday, January 7, 2010

Charlie Weis returns to the NFL

As OC of the Chiefs!

ESPN's story: Weis accepts job with Chiefs
kansascity.com story: Chiefs and Weis are a good fit

I didn't realize he & Todd Haley had a relationship. I guess I might have subconsciously thought Weis would join the staff of his old QB coach McDaniels, in Denver. (Hah!)

Charlie Weis is a big fat blowhard as a head coach. But

I just don’t see Haley and Weis as equally yoked. Weis is a self-made football coach. He coached high school football in the ’70s and early ’80s. He did four years at the University of South Carolina. While coaching a New Jersey high school team to the state championship, he moonlighted as an assistant in the Giants’ pro personnel department. He spent 15 years as an NFL assistant and won three Super Bowls before he landed the Notre Dame job.
After completing his college golf career, farting around and shadowing his dad, Haley became an NFL position coach for the Jets in 1999. He became a play-calling offensive coordinator late in the 2007 season at Arizona. And now he’s Charlie Weis’ boss. Wow!
Great column.

The KC situation has not added up for me in the past. I never put my finger on why I'm not a believer. I guess we'll see if Weis makes the difference.

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Wednesday, January 6, 2010

The NFC I'd Like To See

It's not a prediction. It's not an analysis. It's simply a list of how I'd like to see the NFC playoffs pan out. Take a little bit of homerism, a little bit of drama queen, a dash of story line, and a bunch of unabashed opinionism, and you get the following playoff runs as your Must See NFC:

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Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Tuesday haiku

Black Monday passes
Only two coaches fired
Calm before the storm

Friday, January 1, 2010

Mike Leach: It's bad to be both wrong and dumb

After being fired for punishing Adam James for being unable to play without a concussion, Leach has granted an interview with ESPN, shown in its entirety here.

It's an interesting situation that warrants commentary from us given how actively we've discussed concussions here. This is an important topic that deserves the media attention that it's getting. But what I'm not certain of is how much people are truly focusing on the correct thing.

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