I had a spreadsheet on my laptop, with data from the wonderful wonderful Pro Football Reference site up thru 2004, which I had used a couple years ago in examining player performance by age. So I took a look at the passer rating of rookie QBs.
The NFL uses an attempts-per-game threshold to determine eligibility for the passer rating list, so I did the same thing. That column is on the far right, on the table below. But the NFL's threshold is 14 pass attempts per game, which I felt was restrictive. In the list below I've eliminated guys with 7 or fewer passes per game. Passes per game is an odd stat to use as a filter, because you get guys who played like 1 or 2 games and float to the top of this list. See Todd Marinovich, who played in 1 game in 1999, but attempted 40 passes. But it gives us a first look at the data.
I also weeded out some guys who were not rookies (like Marc Bulger 2001); and I threw out Dieter Brock for being ridiculous. Technically a rookie, the 34yo Dieter Brock made his NFL debut in 1985 after 11 yrs as a professional QB in the CFL. I was not consistent about this, I left in some guys who had pro ball careers before getting into the NFL. They are asterisked in the list below.
Here are the top 32 rookie seasons by passer rating from the data available at PFR.
If 32 seems like a weird number to you, realize that I had to include enough guys to get Joe Flacco on the list (he's #26), and the next few guys were interesting so I included them too.Player Season Age Team G COMP ATT Yards TD INT QBRate PassPG Clint Longley 1974 22 dal 2 12 21 209 2 0 122.9 10.5 Todd Blackledge 1983 22 kan 4 20 34 259 3 0 112.3 8.5 Kevin Sweeney 1987 24 dal 3 14 28 291 4 1 111.8 9.3 Norm VanBrocklin 1949 23 ram 8 32 58 601 6 2 111.4 7.3 Todd Marinovich 1991 22 rai 1 23 40 243 3 0 100.3 40.0 Jim Sorgi 2004 24 clt 4 17 29 175 2 0 99.1 7.3 Ben Roethlisbrgr 2004 22 pit 14 196 295 2621 17 11 98.1 21.1 Johnny Lujack 1948 23 chi 9 36 66 611 6 3 97.5 7.3 Dan Marino 1983 22 mia 11 173 296 2210 20 6 96.0 26.9 Galen Hall 1962 22 was 3 19 32 274 2 1 95.1 10.7 Drew Brees 2001 22 sdg 1 15 27 221 1 0 94.8 27.0 Pat Haden 1976 23 ram 10 60 105 896 8 4 94.8 10.5 David Archer 1984 22 atl 2 11 18 181 1 1 90.3 9.0 Sam Wyche 1968 23 cin 3 35 55 494 2 2 89.5 18.3 Greg Cook 1969 23 cin 11 106 197 1854 15 11 88.3 17.9 Matt Ryan 2008 23 atl 16 265 434 3440 16 11 87.7 27.1 Erik Wilhelm 1989 24 cin 6 30 56 425 4 2 87.3 9.3 John Stofa 1966 24 mia 7 29 57 425 4 2 84.3 8.1 Edd Hargett 1969 22 nor 6 31 52 403 0 0 84.1 8.7 Charlie Conerly 1948 27 nyg 12 162 299 2175 22 13 84.0 24.9 Charlie Batch 1998 24 det 12 173 303 2178 11 6 83.5 25.3 Jim Kelly * 1986 26 buf 16 285 480 3593 22 17 83.3 30.0 Jon Kitna 1997 25 sea 3 31 45 371 1 2 82.7 15.0 Shaun King 1999 22 tam 6 89 146 875 7 4 82.4 24.3 Steve McNair 1995 22 oti 6 41 80 569 3 1 81.7 13.3 Joe Flacco 2008 23 bal 16 257 428 2971 14 12 80.3 26.8 Doug Flutie * 1986 24 chi 4 23 46 361 3 2 80.1 11.5 Jim McMahon 1982 23 chi 8 120 210 1501 9 7 79.9 26.3 Mike Boryla 1974 23 phi 4 60 102 580 5 3 78.9 25.5 Roman Gabriel 1962 22 ram 6 57 101 670 3 2 78.4 16.8 Jeff Garcia * 1999 29 sfo 13 225 375 2544 11 11 77.9 28.8
Put some kind of minimum floor on this data, like say 75 or 100 attempts or 6/7 games or both, and the 5 highest rookie passer ratings since Marino belong to Roethlisberger, Ryan, Batch, Jim Kelly*, & Flacco. By the way, I completely forgot about Charlie Batch's rookie season in Detroit. A fine performance. Here's the top list, after requiring 75 pass attempts and 7 games played:Player Season QBRate Ben Roethlisbrgr 2004 98.1 Dan Marino 1983 96.0 Pat Haden 1976 94.8 Greg Cook 1969 88.3 Matt Ryan 2008 87.7 Charlie Conerly 1948 84.0 Charlie Batch 1998 83.5 Jim Kelly * 1986 83.3 Joe Flacco 2008 80.3 Jim McMahon 1982 79.9 Jeff Garcia * 1999 77.9 Warren Moon * 1984 76.9 Fran Tarkenton 1961 74.7 Mike Kruczek 1976 74.5 Johnny Unitas 1956 74.0 Ken O'Brien 1984 74.0
Here's another way to look at the rookie QBs: the "thrown to the wolves" list. This is all the rookie QBs over 25 passing attempts per game (min 75 attempts and 7 games played). Kinda gives me more respect for Chris Weinke and Drew Bledsoe and the Throwin' Samoan, Jack Trudeau.Player Season Age Team G COMP ATT Yards TD INT QBRate PassPG Chris Weinke * 2001 29 car 15 293 540 2931 11 19 62.0 36.0 Peyton Manning 1998 22 clt 16 326 575 3739 26 28 71.2 35.9 Jack Trudeau 1986 24 clt 12 204 417 2225 8 18 53.5 34.8 Drew Bledsoe 1993 21 nwe 13 214 429 2494 15 15 65.0 33.0 Jim Zorn 1976 23 sea 14 208 439 2571 12 27 49.5 31.4 Oliver Luck 1983 23 oti 7 124 217 1375 8 13 63.4 31.0 Karl Sweetan 1966 24 det 10 157 309 1809 4 14 54.3 30.9 Joey Harrington 2002 24 det 14 215 429 2294 12 16 59.9 30.6 Rick Mirer 1993 23 sea 16 274 486 2833 12 17 67.0 30.4 Jim Kelly * 1986 26 buf 16 285 480 3593 22 17 83.3 30.0 Jake Plummer 1997 23 crd 10 157 296 2203 15 15 73.1 29.6 Jeff Garcia * 1999 29 sfo 13 225 375 2544 11 11 77.9 28.8 Kerry Collins 1995 23 car 15 214 432 2717 14 19 62.0 28.8 Warren Moon * 1984 28 oti 16 259 450 3338 12 14 76.9 28.1 Butch Songin * 1960 36 nwe 14 187 392 2476 22 15 70.9 28.0 Byron Leftwich 2003 23 jax 15 239 418 2819 14 16 73.0 27.9 Chad Hutchinson * 2002 25 dal 9 127 250 1555 7 8 66.3 27.8 David Carr 2002 23 htx 16 233 444 2592 9 15 62.8 27.8 Bob Griese 1967 22 mia 12 166 331 2005 15 18 61.6 27.6 Steve Walsh 1989 23 dal 8 110 219 1371 5 9 60.5 27.4 Matt Ryan 2008 23 atl 16 265 434 3440 16 11 87.7 27.1 Dan Marino 1983 22 mia 11 173 296 2210 20 6 96.0 26.9 Joe Flacco 2008 23 bal 16 257 428 2971 14 12 80.3 26.8 Norm Snead 1961 22 was 14 172 375 2337 11 22 51.6 26.8 Troy Aikman 1989 23 dal 11 155 293 1749 9 18 55.7 26.6 Tim Couch 1999 22 cle 15 223 399 2447 15 13 73.2 26.6 Tony Banks 1996 23 ram 14 192 368 2544 15 15 71.0 26.3 Jim McMahon 1982 23 chi 8 120 210 1501 9 7 79.9 26.3 Y.A. Tittle 1950 24 bcl 12 161 315 1884 8 19 52.9 26.3 Joe Namath 1965 22 nyj 13 164 340 2220 18 15 68.8 26.2 Jeff George 1990 23 clt 13 181 334 2152 16 13 73.8 25.7 Charlie Batch 1998 24 det 12 173 303 2178 11 6 83.5 25.3 Steve Deberg 1978 24 sfo 12 137 302 1570 8 22 40.0 25.2 David Woodley 1980 22 mia 13 176 327 1850 14 17 63.1 25.2 Ken Dorsey 2004 23 sfo 9 123 226 1231 6 9 62.4 25.1
Here are the top 13 rookie yardage seasons. Passing yardage of course is heavily biased toward modern-day QBs, with the 16-game season and the liberalized passing rules.Player Season Yards Peyton Manning 1998 3739 Jim Kelly * 1986 3593 Matt Ryan 2008 3440 Warren Moon * 1984 3338 Joe Flacco 2008 2971 Chris Weinke * 2001 2931 Rick Mirer 1993 2833 Byron Leftwich 2003 2819 Kerry Collins 1995 2717 Ben Roethlisbrgr 2004 2621 David Carr 2002 2592 Jim Zorn 1976 2571 Jeff Garcia * 1999 2544
Peyton Manning really was that far ahead of everyone else. Matt Ryan's season is hella impressive, the #2 "real rookie" season. Flacco heads up the next tier of guys. The one who stands out to me is Jim Zorn. What's a rookie in 1976 doing making this list? Well, he's #5 on our "thrown to the wolves" list, and he also threw 27 INTs that year, the record Manning broke.
Here's rookies with 10 or more TD passes since Marino's season:Player Season TDs INT QBRate Peyton Manning 1998 26 28 71.2 Jim Kelly * 1986 22 17 83.3 Dan Marino 1983 20 6 96.0 Ben Roethlisbrgr 2004 17 11 98.1 Jeff George 1990 16 13 73.8 Matt Ryan 2008 16 11 87.7 Drew Bledsoe 1993 15 15 65.0 Tony Banks 1996 15 15 71.0 Jake Plummer 1997 15 15 73.1 Tim Couch 1999 15 13 73.2 Kerry Collins 1995 14 19 62.0 Byron Leftwich 2003 14 16 73.0 Joe Flacco 2008 14 12 80.3 Warren Moon * 1984 12 14 76.9 Rick Mirer 1993 12 17 67.0 Joey Harrington 2002 12 16 59.9 Charlie Batch 1998 11 6 83.5 Jeff Garcia * 1999 11 11 77.9 Chris Weinke * 2001 11 19 62.0 Heath Shuler 1994 10 12 59.6
More of these than I would have thought. Weinke's asterisks in the above 2 lists are for playing 6 seasons of pro baseball before going back to college. So perhaps it doesn't belong.
The main point of these lists is of course to emphasize how wonderful Joe Flacco's season was. Matt Ryan's season was clearly better – astonishing might not be too strong a word – but Joe Cool's season ranks on the top 5 or 10 lists of best rookie statistical seasons ever, whether we're looking at wins or passer rating or yardage or TD passes.
[Edit: of course the Throwin' Samoan was Jack Thompson, not Jack Trudeau. Sorry, Jack.]
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Rating rookie quarterbacks
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lets just hope he's not a rick mirer
ReplyDeleteVery nice article, Jim.
ReplyDeleteAgree, nicely done. I was gonna do something like this, so you saved me a lot of work!
ReplyDeleteyou've come along way ravens fans
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d9n4DlmibDQ&feature=related